CARI Captures Issue 564: President Jokowi visits China, Japan and South Korea

INDONESIA
President Jokowi visits China, Japan and South Korea

(26 July 2022) President Joko Widodo embarked on a three-day visit to Northeast Asia this week ahead of the G20 leader’s summit to be held in Bali in November. The president started his tour in Beijing where he met President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. China pledged to import another one million tonnes of crude palm oil and prioritise agricultural imports from Indonesia during the meeting. He then visited Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, where the latter agreed to provide US$318.25 million in infrastructure and disaster prevention loans to Indonesia. In Seoul, he met President Yoon suk-yeol and Korean business leaders.

INDONESIA
Mitsubishi and Toyota to expand production in Indonesia

(26 July 2022) Mitsubishi Motors Corp will invest some US$666.9 million in the next three years to produce hybrid and battery electric vehicles, as well as increase its export capacity from Indonesia from 42,000 units in 2021 to 72,000 units in 2022 and 98,000 units in 2024. Separately, Toyota Motor Corp says that it will invest US$1.8 billion in the country in the next five years to produce hybrid electric vehicles. Indonesia hopes to transition fully to electric vehicles by 2050, and have 2.2 million electric cars and 13 million electric motorcycles on its roads by 2030.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s core inflation is at its highest since November 2008

(25 July 2022) Singapore’s core inflation rose by 4.4% year-on-year in June, up from a 13-year high of 3.6% recorded in May, bringing core inflation to its highest in almost 14 years when it came in at 5.5%. Overall inflation or the headline consumer price index rose by 6.7% year-on-year in June, up from 5.6% in May. This was similarly reflected across all sectors — food inflation came in at 5.4%, retail and other goods at 3.1%, electricity and gas prices at 20%, services inflation at 3.4%, accommodation inflation at 4.2%, and private transport at 21.9%. The government expects core inflation to reach between 4-4.5% in the third quarter before easing to 3.5-4% in the fourth quarter.

BRUNEI
Central bank expects a low inflation rate in 2022

(24 July 2022) Brunei’s central bank expects inflation to remain low at between 2-3% this year despite global inflation and Singapore’s monetary policy tightening. Brunei’s monetary system is underpinned by the Currency Interchangeability Agreement that it has with Singapore and the Brunei dollar is pegged to the Singapore dollar. Inflation in Brunei averaged 1.2% between 1981-2018, though it rose by 3.8% year-on-year in March 2022 due to higher food import prices. Meanwhile, assets in the financial sector grew by 7.9% year-on-year to US$17.2 billion, with deposit-taking institutions accounting for 92% of total assets.

THAILAND
Central bank says growth might exceed 3% in 2Q22

(23 July 2022) Thailand’s central bank believes that economic growth could surpass 3% in the second quarter of 2022 on the back of steady recovery and domestic consumption. The country’s private consumption index expanded 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter and could surge to 9.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. Non-farm income is expected to grow by 10.3% in the second quarter, while farm income is expected to grow by 16.7% during the period. Thailand expects to receive at least six million international tourists this year, with every additional one million tourists contributing to the GDP by 0.4%. Annual growth is expected to reach 3.3% in 2022.

LAOS, VIETNAM
Bilateral trade was up 20.6% in 1H22

(26 July 2022) Trade between Vietnam and Laos rose by 20.6% year-on-year to US$824 million in the first six months of 2022. Of the sum, Vietnam’s imports from Laos grew by 45.4% to US$514.6 million, though its exports to Laos fell by 6% to US$309.4 million. Vietnam’s top export product to Laos—petrol—was up by 254.7%, accounting for US$30.2 million of the sum. Its exports of fruits and vegetables were also up by 78.1%, accounting for US$22.4 million. Bilateral trade in June alone totalled US$134 million and the uptrend is expected to continue following the Lao government’s recent approval of a credit package to import 200 million litres of fuel.

CAMBODIA
Internet subscribers surge to 17.7 million

(27 July 2022) The number of mobile and fixed broadband internet subscribers in Cambodia rose from 16.1 million in 2019 before the pandemic to 17.7 million as of March 2022, according to a report from the country’s telecommunications regulator. However, the number of mobile phone subscribers dipped by half a million in the past year to 19.4 million. Cambodia’s e-commerce market also grew 19% on the year to US$970 million, up from US$813 million in 2021. Meanwhile, its total number of mobile payment users grew 42% to 13.6 million from 9.56 million in 2020.


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AUSTRALIA
Australia’s inflation rate reaches 6.1% in June

(27 July 2022) Australian inflation rose further in the second quarter, coming in at 6.1% in the year through June, up from 5.1% in the quarter through March — its fastest annual increase since 2001. Transportation prices increased by 13.1% as petrol prices also rose for the fourth quarter in a row fuelled by the Russia-Ukraine war, while vegetable and fruit prices increased by nearly 6%. Analysts say that the central bank will likely respond by raising interest rates again. Meanwhile, inflation in neighbouring New Zealand reached a 32-year high as it rose by 7.3% in the June quarter.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea emerges as the world’s fastest-growing arms exporter

(24 July 2022) South Korea’s arms exports rose by 177% during the 2017-2021 period compared to the 2012-2016 period, making it the fastest-growing arms exporter in the world according to a report by the Export-Import Bank of Korea. The country is now the eighth largest arms exporter globally and the second largest player in Asia after China. Its share of global arms exports also grew threefold from 1% to 2.8%, with exports expected to reach US$10 billion in 2022. The Philippines and Indonesia are its two biggest buyers, accounting for 16% and 14% of sales respectively.

CHINA
China Belt and Road spending dips in 1H22

(26 July 2022) China’s investment in Belt and Road countries fell to US$28.4 billion in the first half of the year from the US$29.6 billion recorded the previous year, according to research published by the Shanghai-based Green Finance and Development Center, bringing total cumulative investment to US$932 billion since the initiative was launched in 2013. The report also noted that there were no new investments in Russia, Egypt and Sri Lanka, as well as no new investments in coal projects ever since China pledged to stop funding coal projects overseas at the United Nations in September 2021.

CARI Captures Issue 563: ADB cuts growth forecasts for developing Asia for 2022, with only Indonesia and the Philippines upgraded

ASEAN
ADB cuts growth forecasts for developing Asia for 2022, with only Indonesia and the Philippines upgraded

(21 July 2022) The Asian Development Bank recently slashed its growth forecasts for developing Asia in 2022 to 4.6% from an earlier forecast of 5.2% in April 2022, amidst monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and zero-COVID-19 strategies pursued in China. However, Indonesia and the Philippines were the only two out of about a dozen economies to see their growth forecasts revised upwards. The Philippines’ growth forecast was upgraded to 6.5% growth for 2022 from 6%, while Indonesia was raised to 5.2% from 5%. The Philippines’ growth momentum is underpinned by strong domestic demand, a pick up in employment and remittances, and large infrastructure projects. In Indonesia, strong growth has been underpinned by robust domestic demand and exports. For Southeast Asia as a whole, the growth forecast was marginally upgraded from 4.9% to 5.0%.

INDONESIA
Indonesia’s central bank keeps rates unchanged to support economic growth

(21 July 2022) Indonesia’s central bank kept its rates unchanged to support economic growth, bucking the current international trend towards monetary tightening. Bank Indonesia left the seven-day reverse repurchase rate at a record low 3.5% on 21 July. Bank Indonesia’s Governor cited within-target core inflation to justify the case for continuing with the easy policy. Indonesia’s economy has the fiscal room to cope with supply-driven price pressures, thanks in part due to the windfall from commodity exports. Although headline inflation breached the central bank’s 2%-4% target range, the governor stated that it will return to target in 2023, while pointing out that price gains in the core measures tracked by the central bank will remain within range. The central bank stated that it sees the economy expanding more toward the lower end of a 4.5%-5.3% outlook range.

MALAYSIA
Samsung SDI Co Ltd breaks ground on US$1.3 billion battery factory in Negeri Sembilan state

(21 July 2022) On 21 July, South Korean company Samsung SDI Co Ltd broke ground on a US$1.3 billion battery factory in Negeria Sembilan state. The factory will produce cylindrical batteries, and will be located in Seremban, Negeri Sembilan. The batteries will meet the rising demand for cylindrical batteries, and will be used in applications including electrical tools and electric vehicles (EVs). The factory plans to start mass production in 2024. Malaysian officials stated that Samsung SDI’s investment in Malaysia is integral to the country’s vision of driving robust economic growth in the country and Negeri Sembilan as outlined in the Malaysia Vision Valley 2.0 plan. Samsung SDI is undertaking its Malaysian operations through its local subsidiary Samsung SDI Energy Malaysia Sdn Bhd (SDIEM). Established in 1991, SDIEM was the first overseas business entity of Samsung SDI.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines looking to strike deals with world’s largest fertilizer suppliers, including Russia and China

(19 July 2022) The Philippines is seeking to strike deals with some of the world’s largest fertilizer suppliers, including Russia and China, in order to lower costs and increase food production amidst high inflation. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. plans to reach out to countries such as China, Russia, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates and Malaysia to secure fertilizer supplies at favorable prices. President Marcos has stated that he wants to boost agricultural output over the next six months, in order to increase the country’s food security. Agriculture officials have warned of higher local prices of rice in the coming months due to surging fertilizer costs. Inflation in the Philippines averaged 4.4% in the first half of 2022, above the official 2% to 4% target band, with the June rate of 6.1% being the highest in nearly four years.

THAILAND
Combined market for medical marijuana and hemp to grow to US$1.2 billion by 2025

(21 July 2022) According to the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, the combined market for medical marijuana and hemp in Thailand will expand by about 15% annually through 2025, when it’s likely to reach US$1.2 billion, creating opportunities for growers and small businesses. Thailand decriminalized cannabis on 09 June to help kickstart the economy, particularly in the agriculture, tourism and wellness sectors. According to the university, cannabis has the potential to become a key economic crop, which can generate a lot of income for both growers and small- and medium-size enterprises. While many people are concerned about the misuse of the drug, they aren’t rejecting legalization due to the economic value. According to a survey carried out by the university, 78% of Thais have yet to try out cannabis.

SINGAPORE
Big Four audit firms dangling higher pay to keep Singapore talent amidst labor shortage

(20 July 2022) The Big Four accounting firms are dangling higher pay to keep Singaporean talent amidst a labor shortage in the country. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and Deloitte LLP lifted base salaries starting from 01 July, while Ernst & Young LLP had an off-cycle pay adjustment in April 2022 for some parts of the firm, on top of a special bonus payout in 2021 and the annual salary review in October. KPMG LLP said in May 2022 that it will raise entry-level salaries by as much as 20%, along with providing ‘market-competitive bonuses.’ A departure of expats from the city-state during the pandemic, coupled with stricter rules on bringing in staff from abroad, have led to the worst labor shortage in decades. The average attrition rate among the Big Four firms in Singapore rose to 38% in the 12 months ending 30 September, 2021, compared with 24% in the year-earlier period.

CAMBODIA, VIET NAM, HONG KONG
Hong Kong conglomerate Swire Pacific to buy Coke’s bottling operations in Viet Nam and Cambodia for US$1 billion
(18 July 2022) Hong Kong conglomerate Swire Pacific is buying Coke’s bottling operations in Viet Nam and Cambodia for US$1 billion, marking the company’s first foray into Southeast Asia’s beverage industry. The transaction is expected to be completed within six months, subject to antitrust approval. Swire is best known for controlling Cathay Pacific Airways, one of Asia’s best known airlines. The company has been redirecting investment into key operations including beverages and property, two of its most profitable businesses, as well as going into emerging sectors like health care. Swire has a long partnership with Coca-Cola, and previously bought the soft-drink maker’s bottling operations in southern China in 2016.


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JAPAN
Number of visitors to Japan falls in June 2022 despite borders being partially reopened

(20 July 2022) The number of visitors to Japan fell in June 2022 despite borders being partially reopened to foreign tourists. A total of 120,400 visitors entered Japan in June 2022 after tourists were allowed back into the nation on group tours after a two-year hiatus, according to data by the Japan National Tourism Organization. That’s down 18% from May and 14% from April. In June, Japan doubled its daily cap on entrants to 20,000 and began accepting tour groups from nations and regions classified as having a low number of positive COVID-19 cases. A total of 507,600 foreign travelers entered Japan in the first half of 2022, barely 3% of the total from the first half of 2019. The nation had a record 31.8 million arrivals in 2019.

SOUTH KOREA
Producer prices accelerate in June 2022, underscoring inflation challenge

(22 July 2022) Producer prices accelerated in June 2022, underscoring the challenge of reining in inflation at a time of high commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. According to data by the Bank of Korea, the price index climbed 9.9% year-on-year, compared with 9.7% in May. Services and industrial products were among the largest contributors to the increase. Consumer price inflation is currently standing at a near 23 year high in South Korea, with rising manufacturing costs being a key factor behind this. Earlier in June, the central bank executed a half-percentage-point interest-rate hike for the first time. COVID-19-related lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, and labor strikes have added to the difficulties of controlling manufacturing costs.

NEW ZEALAND
Government creates new investor migrant visa to attract experienced, high-value investors

(20 July 2022) The New Zealand government has created a new investor migrant visa to attract experienced, high-quality investors to invest in domestic businesses. Dubbed the Active Investor Plus visa, it replaces the old investment visa categories and would require migrants to make investments in New Zealand businesses. According to the Economic and Regional Development Minister, the original visa had often resulted in migrants investing in shares and bonds rather than businesses directly. The new visa hopes to create more active investment into the country, thereby generating more high-skilled jobs and economic growth compared to passive investment. The eligibility requirement for the new visa includes a minimum US$3.1 million investment and only 50% of that can be invested in listed equities.

CARI Captures Issue 562: Thailand establishes mini-FTA with Busan

THAILAND, SOUTH KOREA
Thailand establishes mini-FTA with Busan

(14 July 2022) Thailand has entered a “mini free trade agreement” or mini-FTA with Busan to boost trade between the parties. The agreement, signed by the Thai Commerce Ministry and the Busan Economic Promotion Agency, is the first mini-FTA Thailand has entered into with a South Korean city and its fourth mini-FTA. The first four agreements of its kind were with Japan’s Kofu city, China’s Hainan and Gansu provinces, and India’s Telangana state. Busan is both South Korea’s second-largest city after Seoul and the city which handles the largest amount of Thai imports. Trade between the two countries reached US$15.5 billion.

VIETNAM, UNITED KINGDOM
UK exports to Vietnam grow by over 23% in 2021

(10 July 2022) Trade between Vietnam and the United Kingdom returned to pre-pandemic levels last year and rose 17% year-on-year totalling US$6.6 billion. Vietnam’s exports to the UK grew by 16.4% on the year to US$5.7 billion, while its imports from the UK grew by 23.6% to some US$850 million. Furthermore, the country has exported US$2.9 billion worth of commodities to the UK and imported US$372.5 million of the same during the first half of 2022. The Vietnamese government has attributed the quick recovery and growth despite the pandemic to the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) which came into force in May 2021.

SINGAPORE, INDONESIA
Indonesia commences chicken exports to Singapore

(13 July 2022) Indonesia began exporting chicken to Singapore for the first time on July 13 through a business-to-business agreement between Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPI) and a Singaporean importer. The shipment contained 50 tonnes of frozen chicken, with a contract in place for CPI to supply 1,000 tonnes in total this year. Three Indonesian suppliers have been authorised to export chicken meat and related products to Singapore so far, with 12 other applications being reviewed. Two approved companies are Indonesian subsidiaries of Thailand’s Charoen Pokphand, while the third is a subsidiary of Indonesian agri-food conglomerate Japfa Comfeed.

THE PHILIPPINES
Philippine central bank hikes interest rates by 75 basis points

(14 July 2022) The Philippines’ central bank announced this week that it has raised key interest rates by 75 basis points in a surprise off-cycle move. The key overnight reverse repurchase facility rate rose to 3.25%, the overnight deposit rate rose to 2.75%, and the lending facility rate rose to 3.75%. The announcement came as a surprise since the central bank was not scheduled to have a regular policy meeting until mid-August. The country’s finance minister said that the economy was robust enough to absorb the latest hike, while the central bank governor said that they were ready to take further action to tighten monetary policy.

SINGAPORE
Singapore tightens monetary policy to slow inflation

(14 July 2022) Singapore’s central bank tightened its monetary policy this week to temper rising inflation and re-centre the Singapore dollar. The off-cycle move, which was made to address inflation arising from rising commodity prices and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, came as a surprise as it fell outside of the central bank’s normal cycle of monetary policy reviews typically done in April and October. The central bank also expects core inflation to breach 4% in the near term and come in between 3-4% in 2022, with non-cooked food prices expected to rise sharply.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s economy grows 4.8% in Q2
(14 July 2022) The Singaporean economy expanded by 4.8% on the year in the second quarter of the year, according to early government estimates, though the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The expansion was driven by continued growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and precision engineering due to global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. Construction activity also picked up in the second quarter as it grew by 3.8%, up from 1.8% in the first quarter, though output remains below pre-pandemic levels due to labour shortages.

CAMBODIA
Tourism expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2026
(14 July 2022) The Cambodian government expects tourism to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2026 or 2027 as factors such as economic crises, China’s zero-COVID policy, and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to impede the sector’s recovery. Furthermore, the government expects regional competition and changes in tourist behaviour to affect growth in the tourism sector. The country expects inflows of around one million international visitors in 2022 and double that in 2023 when the country hosts the SEA Games. Cambodia received 6.6 million international tourists in 2019, 1.3 million in 2020 and 0.19 million in 2021.


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AUSTRALIA
Australia’s unemployment dives to a 48-year low

(14 July 2022) The unemployment rate in Australia fell to 3.5% in June from 3.9% the month before — its lowest unemployment rate since August 1974. Net employment reached 88,400 in June, up from 60,600 in May, bringing the total for the year so far to 438,000. The country’s underutilisation rate remained at its lowest since 1982 at 9.6%, while the number of unemployed fell by 54,300. Nevertheless, analysts also expect inflation to hit its highest since 1990 this year at around 6.3% especially with pandemic-related restrictions fully lifted.

SOUTH KOREA
Hyundai Motor to build its first South Korean EV factory

(12 July 2022) Hyundai Motor announced that it will build a factory dedicated to producing electric vehicles in South Korea — its first automobile plant in the country in almost three decades. The company also said that it has reached a tentative wage deal with its local labour union to avoid a strike for the fourth consecutive year. Hyundai Motor has also agreed to increase its investment in South Korea and committed to investing US$48.1 billion in the country through 2025. The company will also increase workers’ basic monthly wages by US$74.93, and give them each a one-off bonus as well as 20 shares.

JAPAN
Japan’s JERA to start a new coal-fired power plant

(14 July 2022) Japan’s largest power generation company JERA will be firing up a new 1.07-gigawatt coal-fired power plant in Taketoyo next month to help ease the electricity crunch before winter. The new plant is a rare development, especially in developed countries, since most are phasing out coal plants. Japan’s environment minister called for the plan to be reconsidered but it was eventually approved due to energy security risks that the country faces. JERA says that the plant has achieved the highest levels of generation efficiency for coal power in the world and that it is considering various options to further reduce emissions.

CARI Captures Issue 561: ASEAN governments roll out new economic relief packages to help cushion impact of inflation

ASEAN
ASEAN governments roll out new economic relief packages to help cushion impact of inflation

(06 July 2022) Southeast Asian governments are rolling out new economic relief packages to help cushion the impact of inflation for lower income citizens. Across the region, people are struggling with the rising prices of everyday goods due to the fallout from the Ukraine war as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions. Singapore has announced a stimulus measure worth US$1.07 billion that assists households and small businesses. In Malaysia, the government has announced that households and individuals in the bottom 40 income bracket will receive cash payments. Meanwhile, the Thai government announced a three month extension to ongoing relief measures, which will now run until September, while Indonesia is directing cash payments to roughly 20 million households and 2.5 million street food vendors in response to surging cooking oil prices. The additional relief packages risk damaging national finances already strained by the pandemic response. Rising interest rates are expected to increase the fiscal burdens of ASEAN governments.

MALAYSIA
Central bank raises overnight policy rate by 25 basis points in response to inflationary pressures

(06 July 2022) Malaysia’s central bank raised its overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points on 06 July 2022, raising it to 2.25%. This came in response to rising food and energy prices. In May 2022, the central bank raised the OPR to 2% from 1.75%, reportedly the lowest on record, following a 25 basis points cut in July 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysia’s central bank noted in a statement that while Malaysia’s economy has benefited from the reopening of the global economy and an improvement in labor market conditions, these have been offset by the impact of rising cost pressures, the conflict in Ukraine, as well as containment measures being implemented in China. The central bank noted that inflationary pressures have continued to increase due to elevated commodity prices as well as strong demand conditions. The central bank also observed that economic activity in Malaysia has strengthened in recent months as reflected in the momentum in exports as well as retail spending.

INDONESIA
Indonesia considering more frequent setting of crude palm oil reference price

(06 July 2022) The Indonesian government is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, in order to adjust quicker to fast-changing international market prices. The current monthly reference price is based on Indonesian, Malaysian and European CPO prices. That price is used to determine the palm oil export tax and levy each month. Malaysia’s benchmark palm oil futures fell 22% in June 2022 and have slumped more than 20% so far in July, a result of Indonesia boosting exports and expectations of Malaysian production increasing, while global demand is sluggish amid concerns of a looming recession. The Indonesian Trade Ministry did not provide a time frame for when a decision would be made, but is currently collecting feedback from stakeholders, government bodies, and industry players.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines projected to record highest growth in 2022 and 2023 among ASEAN Plus Three countries

(06 July 2022) The Philippines is projected to record the highest growth in 2022 and 2023 among the ASEAN Plus Three countries. ASEAN Plus Three includes the member states of ASEAN, as well as Japan, South Korea and China. The Philippines government expects the economy to grow by 6.5% to 7.5% in 2022, which will be the highest growth rate among all Asean Plus Three countries for both this year and the next. The government also forecasted the Philippines’ growth rate from 2023 to 2028 at between 6.5% to 8%. The new government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is targeting a reduction of the country’s poverty rate to 9% by 2028. This is part of the government’s recently submitted DOF’s Medium-term Fiscal Consolidation Framework, which outlines targets for the term of the new president from 2023 to 2028.

THAILAND
Thailand pledges to finish high-speed rail link to China by 2028

(06 July 2022) The Thai government has pledged to finish its part of a much-delayed high-speed rail system linking the country to China through Laos by 2028. Thailand pledged to finish the first of two stages to the US$12 billion project by 2026. In total, Thailand’s part of the rail link will comprise 609 kilometers going from Bangkok to the northeastern border province of Nong Khai, where a bridge will be built over the Mekong River to connect with the China-Laos line. The project is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and was first conceived in 2014. However, it has been delayed due to ‘procedural steps’, according to the director-general at the Department of East Asian Affairs at Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Thailand has completed 12% of the first stage of the project thus far, and expects a test run by 2026 and the official launch the following year. The Chinese foreign ministry has claimed the ‘economic corridor’ connecting China, Laos, and Thailand will promote logistics, trade, and economic development.

VIET NAM, SOUTH KOREA
South Korea and Viet Nam pledge to increase value of bilateral trade to US$100 billion by 2023

(06 July 2022) Viet Nam and South Korea pledged to increase the value of bilateral trade to US$100 billion by 2023, and to US$150 billion by 2030, up from US$78 billion in 2021. The trade targets were agreed during a telephone call between South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and his Vietnamese counterpart Pham Minh Chinh on 05 July. South Korea is an important economic partner for Viet Nam, representing the largest source of foreign direct investment into the country. Samsung Electronics, for instance, is the biggest single foreign investor in the country. Viet Nam recorded a trade deficit of US$34 billion with South Korea in 2021, according to Vietnamese customs data. Viet Nam’s main imports from South Korea include electronics, machinery, metals, plastics, fabrics and fuels.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM, OMAN
Oman and Brunei Darussalam explore bilateral business and investment opportunities
(06 July 2022) Oman and Brunei Darussalam explored bilateral business and investment opportunities during an event organized by the Omani Embassy in Brunei Darussalam in conjunction with the University of Brunei Darussalam (UBM). The event, which coincides with the 3rd meeting of the joint Oman-Brunei Committee, included seminars on investment and education. A heritage and tourism exhibition was also held on the sidelines of the event. The event comes within the framework of efforts by the Omani Embassy in Brunei Darussalem to intensify communication between both countries’ public and private establishments. The event also highlighted the various investments made by the Oman-Brunei Investment Company, which has a total capital of US$200 million invested in diverse sectors including aviation, healthcare, tourism, hospitality, industry, communications and education.


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JAPAN
Japan’s economic recovery facing headwinds due to sticky inflation

(07 July 2022) Japan’s economic recovery is expected to face headwinds due to sticky inflation. According to the median forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg from 01 – 06 July, Japan is expected to post an annualized 3.4% expansion in the quarter through June 2022 from the previous period. That’s down from the 4% growth expected in the previous survey. The recovery is expected to continue slowing down from there, with a 1% increase projected in the second quarter of 2023. The weaker outlook for Japan’s recovery reflects concerns of a global slowdown, as well as sticky inflation. Consumer prices excluding fresh food are expected to stay at or above 2%, the central bank’s target, through the first quarter of 2023. Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to COVID-19-related restrictions on businesses. Consumption is expected to drive a rebound in the second quarter.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea’s inflation rate reaches near-24 year high in June 2022 due to soaring food and energy prices

(05 July 2022) South Korea’s inflation rate reached a near-24 year high in June 2022, due in large part to rising food and energy prices. Data from Statistics Korea noted that South Korea’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 6% in June, the highest level since November 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. The CPI rose in almost every sector, with petroleum products jumping 39.6% and restaurants climbing 8%. The government body noted that soaring oil and energy prices have affected industrial products and groceries. Economists predict that inflation will remain high in the months ahead as energy and food prices remain elevated. South Korea’s central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate at the central bank’s meeting next week, following a quarter-percentage-point hike to 1.75% in May. It is unknown however how much the bank intends to raise its rates.

AUSTRALIA
Australia’s trade surplus rises to record high in May 2022 due to coal exports and tourism

(07 July 2022) Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record high in May 2022 due to stronger prices for its key export – coal – as well as a rebounding tourism sector. According to data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s surplus widened to US$10.9 billion, with exports jumping by 9.5%, Meanwhile, imports climbed 5.8%. Earnings from coal exports rose by 20%, boosting overall resources export receipts by 12% with gains also seen in gold, liquefied natural gas and iron ore. Meanwhile, tourists helped push up services exports. These figures suggested that exports propped up Australia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2022. The country’s fiscal position has also reportedly improved, with the deficit for the year to May 2022 now standing at $A33.4 billion, which is $A27.1 billion below a previous estimate made in March.

CARI Captures Issue 560: Ferdinand Marcos Jr begins six-year presidency

THE PHILIPPINES
Ferdinand Marcos Jr begins six-year presidency

(30 June 2022) Ferdinand Marcos Jr was sworn in as the 17th President of the Philippines on June 30, succeeding Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos Jr’s key economic drivers include his predecessor’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme, “clean mining” to exploit the country’s untapped mineral resources, and fiscal consolidation. He has also appointed himself agriculture minister as the first step towards fulfilling his campaign promise to lower rice prices by half and prioritise food security. Marcos Jr’s economic team will be headed by finance minister Benjamin Diokno, who was previously the central bank governor.

THE PHILIPPINES
Government updates foreign investment negative list

(28 June 2022) The Philippines government updated its foreign investment negative list this week to amend the areas where foreign ownership is barred or limited. While the updated list largely mirrored the previous list issued in 2018, this year’s Regular Foreign Investment Negative List (RFINL) mirrors the Duterte administration’s previous liberalisation efforts. Notable revisions include reducing the minimum paid-up capital requirements for foreign-owned retail enterprises to US$500,000, and lowering the required minimum paid-up capital for foreign enterprises involved in advanced technology and who employ at least 15 Filipino employees to US$100,000.

THE PHILIPPINES
Government to relax poultry import bans to contain prices

(28 June 2022) The Philippines’ agriculture ministry plans to relax import bans on poultry products to curb rising prices and meet domestic demands for such products. The ministry says it has also issued special import permits for poultry vaccines, is studying alternative sources of feed ingredients from abroad, and will soon allow poultry product imports from Belgium, Spain, Denmark and the Czech Republic. The country has seen reduced poultry output in recent years as local producers have shifted to producing other types of products to avoid rising feed costs and diseases such as the African Swine Fever.

VIETNAM
Vietnam grows at the fastest pace in 11 years in 2Q22

(29 June 2022) Vietnam’s GDP recorded 7.7% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2022, its best performance since 2011, as exports recovered and pandemic restrictions were lifted. Export revenue grew 21% year-on-year from April to June, totalling US$96.8 billion, while economic growth from January to June came in at 6.4%. The government is aiming for 6.5% GDP growth in 2022 as the country inches back towards the 7% growth it enjoyed before the pandemic started. However, Vietnam’s consumer price index also rose by 2.96% during the quarter due to increasing oil and import prices.

MALAYSIA
Digi and Celcom get the green light for the merger

(29 June 2022) The Malaysian government has approved the proposed merger between Telenor’s Digi.Com Berhad and Celcom Axiata Berhad to form Celcom Digi Berhad, a new entity that will be the largest player in Southeast Asia’s telecommunications sector. The new entity is projected to generate annual revenue of around US$3 billion and core profitability of US$1.4 billion, with a combined subscriber base of some 19 million customers. The merger is expected to be finalised in the second half of 2022, after which Axiata and Telenor will each hold a 33.1% stake in the new entity.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia sets a higher price ceiling for chickens

(29 June 2022) Malaysia has raised its ceiling price for standard chickens by 50 cents from US$2.02 (RM8.90) per kilogramme to US$2.13 (RM9.40) per kilogramme, as well as the maximum retail price for chicken eggs. The announcement comes as the government reverses its earlier decision to lift ceiling prices and allow the prices of chicken and chicken products to float. The government is said to have allocated US$84 million to subsidise chicken and egg prices, in addition to a similar amount allocated for cash aid for 8.6 million citizens, and US$1.3 billion for water and electricity subsidies.

SINGAPORE, INDONESIA
Singapore approves Indonesia as a new source of chicken imports
(30 June 2022) Singapore’s food agency has added Indonesia to its list of approved countries for chilled, frozen and processed chicken imports. The move comes after neighbouring Malaysia—which Singapore relies on for one-third of its chicken supply—imposed a ban on broiler chicken exports in June. The agency has inspected Indonesia’s food safety and animal health systems, though individual establishments and farms will still need to be evaluated and approved before import. Indonesia produces some 60 million chickens weekly and currently has a 15-20% surplus after domestic consumption.


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CHINA
China relaxes travel restrictions and controls

(28 June 2022) China has eased pandemic movement controls for both international and domestic travellers. Overseas arrivals will only need to quarantine at a facility for seven days plus another three days at home upon arrival, down from the previous 14-21 day centralised quarantine requirement. Close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases will only need to be quarantined at a facility for seven days, followed by three days at home. Furthermore, the country’s digital travel passes will no longer indicate if an individual had recently visited a city with high COVID-19 risks.

JAPAN
Japan’s May factory output suffered the biggest slump in two years

(30 June 2022) Factory output in Japan recorded a 7.2% drop in May 2022—its biggest monthly decline in two years since the 10.5% month-on-month drop recorded in May 2020. The slump was attributed mainly to parts shortages caused by pandemic lockdowns in China, rising energy and raw material prices, and other supply chain disruptions. Semiconductor shortages persist, resulting in a notable drop in vehicles, electric and other machinery production. For instance, Toyota Motor Corp said it produced only 634,940 vehicles in May, missing its already-downgraded target of 700,000 vehicles for the month.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea to raise the minimum wage by 5% next year

(30 June 2022) South Korea’s Minimum Wage Commission has agreed to up the minimum hourly wage by 5% from US$7.06 to US$7.41, effective 1 January 2023. The increase, which will apply to all sectors, would translate to a monthly wage of around US$1,555. Nevertheless, negotiators representing labour were not satisfied with the outcome as they had hoped for an increase to US$7.70 per hour as promised by the previous Moon Jae-in administration, while those representing business wanted a freeze on wage increases as they were still reeling from the impact of the pandemic. The government had previously increased the minimum wage by 1.5% in 2021, 2.9% in 2020, 10.9% in 2019, and 16.4% in 2018.

CARI Captures Issue 559: Major ASEAN economies expected to buck stagflationary trend due to loosening restrictions and rebounding tourism

ASEAN
Major ASEAN economies expected to buck stagflationary trend due to loosening restrictions and rebounding tourism

(21 June 2022) According to analysis by the Financial Times, four out of the six largest economies in Southeast Asia are expected to buck the expected global stagflationary trend, with their GDP rising faster than inflation. The four said ASEAN countries include Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with their economies bouncing back due to a loosening of COVID-19 related restrictions as well as a resurgence in tourism. Only in Thailand and Singapore have inflation climbed faster than GDP growth. While these positive numbers reflect the base effect of bouncing back from a deep economic downturn during the pandemic, many Southeast Asian economies are also generating greater momentum in output too, including a steady growth in exports. High fuel, food, and commodity prices have been beneficial for certain economies such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. These economies are also expected to benefit from manufacturing shifting away from China.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines’ central bank raises key interest rate to 2.5% to temper accelerating inflation

(23 June 2022) The Philippines’ central bank raised its key interest rate to 2.5% to temper accelerating inflation, its second rate hike in two months. The central bank last raised its rate by 25 basis points in May 2022, the first since 2018. The latest rate hike comes as inflation, which averaged at 4.1% between January and May 2022, is expected to climb further. The central bank’s governor attributed this to rising transport fares amid higher oil prices, as well as a domestic fish shortage. The Philippine central bank now expects inflation to hit 5% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023, breaching its 2% to 4% target. The Philippines’ peso has declined to its weakest level in 16 years against the US dollar. The bank has signaled a gradual tightening, with possibly another rate increase by the next meeting in August 2022.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia-based direct-to-consumer startup RPG Commerce raised US$29 million

(23 June 2022) Malaysia-based direct-to-consumer e-commerce startup RPG Commerce raised US$29 million in a Series B funding round. The second funding round is aimed at expanding its brand portfolio and boosting its technology and development. The Series B round was reportedly co-anchored by East Ventures, UOB Venture Management, Vertex Ventures SE Asia & India (VVSEAI) and RHL Ventures. RPG Commerce describes itself as a multibrand DTC company that launches and operates a suite of DTC brands via a “shared back-end infrastructure” approach. RPG Commerce said it owns the development, production and delivery processes of its DTC brands in an end-to-end process. The company has employees in Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines, and sells its products to developed markets like the US, Europe, and Australia.

SINGAPORE
Core inflation in May recorded at 3.6% year-on-year, hitting highest level in more than 13 years

(23 June 2022) Singapore’s core inflation was recorded at 3.6% year-on-year in May 2022, hitting its highest level in more than 13 years. The rise in core inflation, which does not include accommodation and private transport costs, was led by rising food and utility prices. The last time Singapore reported higher year-on-year core inflation was in December 2008, when it was recorded at 4.2%. The headline consumer price index, or overall inflation, rose to 5.6% year-on-year in May, exceeding the 5.4% reported in both April and March 2022. Authorities stated that external inflationary pressures continued to be strong amidst high commodity prices as well as supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and the regional COVID-19 situation. In response to the rising cost of living, on 21 June the Singaporean government announced a SGD 1.5 billion support package targeted at providing immediate relief for lower-income and more vulnerable groups.

MALAYSIA
Government announces US$143 million cash aid for low income families in response to rising cost of living

(22 June 2022) On 22 June, the Malaysian government announced a US$143 million additional cash aid to lower income Malaysians to help them cope with the rising cost of living. Prime Minister Ismail Sabri announced that an additional US$143 million would be distributed together with the second phase of aid payments under the “Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia” (BKM) assistance package for Malaysia’s “Bottom 40” (B40) economic group. BKM is a direct cash aid initiative originally announced in Malaysia’s 2022 Budget and intended to benefit 8.6 million low income Malaysians. Originally, the financial allocation for the second phase of the BKM initiative was US$252 million. Beginning from 27 June, the additional cash aid is expected to reach some 4 million households. The government also announced on 21 June that price ceiling controls for chicken and chicken eggs will be discontinued from 1 June, while subsidies for certain cooking oil products will be abolished from 1 July.

THAILAND, UNITED KINGDOM
Thailand and the UK agree to bring bilateral trade back to US$7 billion

(23 June 2022) Thailand and the United Kingdom agreed to bring bilateral trade back to US$7 billion. Thailand’s Commerce Minister stated this after a Joint Economic and Trade Committee ministerial meeting held at Central Hall Westminster, London. Both countries agreed to cooperate in six areas to boost trade, including in agriculture, digital technology, foods and beverages, investment, commerce and finance. Bilateral trade between both nations currently stands at US$5.5 billion, with the UK standing as Thailand’s 22nd largest trade partner globally and fourth largest within Europe. Thailand intends to boost its economic relationship with the UK in the long term, moving from a joint trade committee to an enhanced trade partnership and a free trade area in the future.

VIET NAM, AUSTRALIA
More than hundred businesses from Viet Nam and Australia gather for trade and investment promotion event
(23 June 2022) More than a hundred businesses from Viet Nam and Australia gathered for a trade and investment promotion event organized by the Australia Vietnam Business Council (AVBC) in Sydney, Australia. The AVBC president stated that the Australia-Vietnam Enhanced Economic Engagement Strategy, signed in December 2021, reaffirmed the two countries’ commitment to strengthening ties and sustainable economic development. Both countries have ratified a number of regional and international trade agreements including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Both countries’ premiers met on the sidelines of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, where they reiterated a bilateral goal to strengthen trade and investment, particularly in the fields of energy, agriculture, forestry, seafood, manufacturing, tourism, digital economy and science and technology. In the first five months of 2022, export-import turnover between the two countries reached a record high of US$6.22 billion, a 32.18% increase from the same period in 2021.


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JAPAN
Core consumer prices in Japan stays at seven year high in May 2022

(24 June 2022) Core consumer prices in Japan rose by 2.1% year-on-year again in May 2022, the second consecutive month in which inflation stayed at levels not seen since March 2015. The core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, had also risen by 2.1% in April. These latest figures come after the central bank last week stuck to its loose monetary policy, even as other central banks raise interest rates to tame inflation. The bank has cautioned that the recent rising prices are a temporary and volatile trend, justifying sticking with its policy of monetary easing to achieve more long-lasting rises (and specifically to achieve its long-time target of 2.0% inflation). The central bank did state, however, that it would pay ‘due attention’ to forex markets after the yen hit a 24-year low against the US Dollar.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korean won falls below 1,300 per US Dollar for first time in 13 years

(23 June 2022) South Korea’s won fell below 1,300 per US Dollar for the first time in 13 years, amidst worries of a coming global economic recession and a strengthening US Dollar. The won weakened by as much as 0.42% in onshore spot trade on 23 June to touch the lowest since 14 July, 2009, at 1,302.8 per dollar. Falling below the 1,300 mark was last seen during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis and the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, and has long been considered as a sign of major economic risks. The won has dropped by more than 8% in 2022, after having weakened by 8.6% in 2021, the fastest annual fall since 2008. South Korea has posted an accumulative US$7.83 billion trade deficit from January until May 2022, and should the trend continue, South Korea’s economy will log the first annual deficit since 2008.

CHINA
Chinese housing slump expected to have significant impact on growth in 2022

(23 June 2022) A slump in China’s housing market is expected to have a significant impact on China’s economic growth in 2022, with demand for services and commodities generated by housing construction and sales accounting for about 20% of GDP. An official index that tracks apartments and house sales have posted year-on-year declines for 11 months straight. An economist with Nomura Holdings Inc rated it the ‘worst property downturn on record’, with the length of the drop exceeding those in 2008 and 2014. The housing slump began in 2021 after Beijing took steps to slow the growth of mortgages and funding for property developers as part of an effort to tame housing bubbles. With the government committing to its stance, economists argue it could bring forward the historic peak in property construction and ensure China’s GDP growth rates average less than 4% over the rest of the decade. Lockdown measures implemented in major cities such as Shanghai also closed businesses and caused joblessness to spike, further causing housing sales in major cities to decline by over 40% from the previous May.

CARI Captures Issue 558: Vietnam to increase the regional minimum wage in July

VIETNAM
Vietnam to increase the regional minimum wage in July

(14 June 2022) Vietnam’s minimum wage increase will enter into force starting July 1 following the approval of a government decree last week. The new minimum wage tiers are as follows: (i) urban Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will be increased to a minimum of US$0.97 per hour, (ii) rural Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang will be increased to US$0.86 per hour, (iii) Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Hai Duong, Phu Tho, Binh Phuc and other provinces not listed in (i) and (ii) will be increased to US$0.75 per hour, and (iv) all other localities will be increased to US$0.67 per hour. The increase which did not please businesses comes as Vietnam copes with inflation pressures.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia eases ban on exports of live premium chicken

(15 June 2022) The Malaysian government has partially lifted its ban on chicken exports on June 1 to stabilise domestic chicken prices. Producers will be able to export live kampung and black chicken, chicken-based products, and day-old chicks beginning this week. Almost all of Malaysia’s live bird exports go to Singapore, with the remainder going to Thailand and Pakistan. Singapore relies on Malaysia for one-third of its chicken imports and a large part of its live chicken supply. The city-state imported 46.3 million birds or around 73,000 tonnes of chicken from Malaysia last year.

THAILAND
Thailand approves more battery production investments and incentives

(14 June 2022) Thailand’s investment board approved US$6 billion in investment applications this week, including a US$1 billion joint venture between Thailand’s PTT and Taiwan’s Foxconn to manufacture battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 16 projects from 10 companies worth US$137 million to manufacture EV batteries, and another three projects worth US$192 million to produce high-energy density batteries. The board also approved incentives such as a 90% reduction in import tariffs on materials to make batteries, tax exemptions for smart system development in industrial zones, and allowing foreign persons to own land in the country.

LAOS
Laos’ GDP grows by 4.3% in the first half of 2022

(15 June 2022) The Lao economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in the first six months of 2022 to reach approximately US$6.5 billion, representing 49.6% of the country’s annual growth target. The figures were shared by Lao planning and investment minister Khamjane Vongphosy during a parliament session, during which he also said that the government is targeting 4.4% growth or around US$13 billion in the second half of the year. Agriculture and services remain the country’s main economic drivers, though cryptocurrency is also becoming a significant source of government revenue, contributing to 33.7% of the annual budget in the first five months of the year.

BRUNEI
Brunei targets August 1 for reopening of land and sea borders

(10 June 2022) Brunei aims to fully reopen its borders on August 1 though some travel requirements will be eased starting June 15: essential cross-border land and sea travel will be allowed though travellers must apply for permission, rostered rapid antigen testing in workplaces and for transport operators is no longer needed, the scanning of the BruHealth QR code is no longer mandatory, all inbound travellers need not present a pre-departure COVID-19 test, fully vaccinated travellers need not undergo testing and self-isolation upon entry, and the minimum travel insurance coverage has been lowered from US$50,000 to US$20,000.

MALAYSIA, VIETNAM
Vietnam and Malaysia sign MoC on timber trades

(15 June 2022) Associations representing Malaysian and Vietnamese timber and timber product industries signed a memorandum of cooperation (MoC) to enhance cooperation between both sides. According to the Malaysian Timber Council, this could include gaining access to European Union markets through Vietnam’s free trade agreements, tapping into Vietnam’s skilled and available labour pool, and increasing exports of timber products to Vietnam. Malaysia exported US$38.44 million worth of such products to Vietnam in 2021 and imported US$148.25 million. Malaysia’s exports to Vietnam mainly were particleboards, wooden furniture, fibreboards, sawn timber, and builders’ joinery and carpentry.

INDONESIA
Nusantara will proceed irrespective of the 2024 election outcome
(14 June 2022) The moving of Indonesia’s capital city from Jakarta to Nusantara will proceed no matter how the country’s 2024 national election unfolds, according to an official from the Nusantara Capital City Authority. Construction will commence in the second half of 2022, with the first phase targeted for completion in 2024 and the final phase to be completed in 2045. Nusantara will also be a “forest city, sponge city and smart city”, with 65% of the new capital comprising tropical forests and another 10% composed of green areas for food supply.


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SOUTH KOREA
South Korea cuts 2022 growth outlook

(16 June 2022) The South Korean government has lowered the country’s 2022 growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.6% and increased its inflation forest from 2.2% to 4.7%. The government also proposed lowering the maximum corporate tax rate from 25% to 22%, increasing corporate tax deductibles for investments to produce semiconductors and organic light-emitting diodes from 6-10% to 8-12% to promote capital investment in key technology sectors, removing capital gains taxes on retail stock investors with holdings of less than US$7.74 million (10 billion won), and reducing the tax on stock transactions from 0.23% to 0.20% in 2023.

SOUTH KOREA
Truckers end strike as government agrees to extend pay guarantee

(14 June 2022) Unionised truckers in South Korea ended their eight-day strike after reaching a tentative agreement with the transport ministry to extend minimum pay guarantees and possibly expand fuel subsidies for truckers to help them cope with the rise in fuel prices. South Korea’s industry ministry says that the strike has cost industries some US$1.2 billion in losses and unfulfilled shipments, including the non-production of 5,400 vehicles worth nearly US$200 million, the 90% reduction in shipments of petrochemical products, and unfulfilled deliveries of food and liquor which impacted small businesses.

AUSTRALIA
Australia to raise the national minimum wage

(16 June 2022) Australia’s Fair Work Commission raised the national minimum wage by 5.2%, from US$14.26 an hour to US$14.98 an hour, effective July 1. The hike, which translates to a US$28.06 a week pay rise for full-time employees, is expected to affect some two million minimum wage earners. On the other hand, it is projected to cost businesses some US$5.5 billion in additional annual costs. Australia’s unemployment rate is currently at its lowest in almost 50 years at 3.9%, with the employment rate increasing for the seventh consecutive month in May.

CARI Captures Issue 557: Australia pledges total of US$482 million to ASEAN and Indonesia for development purposes

AUSTRALIA, ASEAN
Australia pledges total of US$482 million to ASEAN and Indonesia for development purposes

(06 June 2022) Australia’s new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged a total of US$482 million to its ASEAN neighbors and in particular Indonesia. Canberra pledged US$142 million to Indonesia for infrastructure development and climate resilience projects, while also pledging another US$335 million to ASEAN to be distributed through bilateral and regional development assistance programs. Prime Minister Albanese made these pledges during a recent three day visit to Indonesia. Canberra also pledged to appoint a high-level envoy to ASEAN, as well as establish a Southeast Asia office in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. It will also prepare an ASEAN economic strategy 2040 “to map current and future export and investment opportunities across key ASEAN markets.” With regards to Australia’s relations with Indonesia, Albanese stated that his government will work with Australian super funds and other major investors to explore investment opportunities in Indonesia. For his part, Jokowi requested greater access to Australia for high-value Indonesian products.

THE PHILIPPINES
Revenue by business outsourcing industry rises by 10.6% to US$29.5 billion in 2021

(08 June 2022) Revenue for the Philippines’ economically crucial business process outsourcing (BPO) industry rose by 10.6% to reach US$29.5 billion in 2021, according to data by the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines. The industry also recorded a 9.1% increase in new hires, adding 120,000 new workers. The expansion in the call center-dominated sector was fueled by pent-up demand from global customers, e-commerce and fintech growth, and companies increasingly turning to BPO services to cut costs. The industry is currently lobbying the current and incoming government for legislation allowing the implementation of hybrid work. Currently, the government has ordered BPO companies to return to full on-site work by April 1 as part of the country’s economic reopening. With many workers now accustomed to working from home, the industry is requesting for a smoother transition to on-site work.

THE PHILIPPINES
Filipino billionaire Enrique Razon Jr. plans to build the world’s largest solar facility in the Philippines

(09 June 2022) Filipino company Prime Infrastructure Holdings, controlled by Filipino billionaire Enrique Razon Jr., plans to build the world’s largest solar facility in the Philippines. The company stated that its subsidiary Terra Solar Philippines will build a solar farm that can generate between 2,500 megawatts to 3,500 megawatts of electricity. When completed, the facility will surpass the capacity of the Bhadla Solar Park in India, the world’s biggest operating solar farm which produces 2,250 megawatts. Prime Infrastructure stated it will leverage its partnership with solar company Solar Philippines to identify potential sites for the project in northern and southern Luzon. Prime Infrastructure hopes to leverage upon a steep decline in installation costs over the past decade, as well as improvements in battery energy storage system technologies. Besides solar energy, Prime Infrastructure has been investing in hydropower plants and water utilities in recent years.

SINGAPORE
Family offices in Singapore reviewing their strategic asset allocation in light of global market conditions

(09 June 2022) According to wealth manager UBS in its third annual survey for the Global Family Office Report, released on 09 June, family offices based in Singapore are reviewing their strategic asset allocation in light of current global market conditions. In light of concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, global geopolitical concerns and elevated valuations for different asset classes, many family offices are now cutting their allocation to long-duration fixed income assets and raising their investments in alternative asset classes, thus giving up liquidity for higher returns. Such alternative assets include private equity, property and private debt, all of which currently account for 35% of Asia-Pacific family offices’ asset allocation. In terms of private equity, the technology sector tends to be the most popular for investments, with family offices preferring automation and robotics, digital transformation, and health tech. Beyond alternatives, the second most popular asset class is equities.

INDONESIA
Indonesian government mulling special five-year visa for digital nomads

(06 June 2022) The Indonesian government is mulling a special five-year visa for digital nomads, and is also keen to attract more ecological and spiritual tourists. Indonesia recently scrapped most of its travel restrictions, allowing fully-vaccinated visitors to come without testing or quarantine requirements. Tourist arrivals jumped 500% to 111,000 in April 2022, its highest monthly tally since the pandemic. The Indonesian government is hoping to lure employees of global companies like Airbnb Inc. and Twitter Inc. that are letting their people work from anywhere, through streamlined visa processing and more frequent flights. The proposed five year visa would allow holders to stay for as long as five years without paying taxes if they don’t earn their income within Indonesia.

THAILAND
Thailand’s central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, resisting pressure from rising prices

(08 June 2022) Thailand’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% on 08 June, resisting pressure from rising inflation and monetary tightening by other central banks. The Bank of Thailand has not moved its policy rate since May 2020, and the last time it raised rates was in December 2018. Inflation in Thailand hit a 14-year high of 7.1% in May 2022. The Bank of Thailand also upwardly revised its annual inflation projection for 2022 to 6.2% from 4.9%, and also revised its growth projection for 2022 to 3.3%, up 0.1% from the previous projection. While the bank expects exports to keep growing and more international tourists to arrive, supply-side pressures in terms of higher commodity prices will weigh on Thailand’s economic recovery. It is believed the higher cost of energy and raw materials in particular may depress business profits and investments.

VIET NAM
Government considering cutting fuel tax to help ease inflationary pressures
(08 June 2022) Viet Nam’s Finance Minister stated that the government is considering cutting fuel tax to help ease inflationary pressure. Taxes of all kinds account for around 30% of retail prices, including an 8% import tax and 10% value added tax. It is believed that cutting fuel tax would help reduce prices and cut production costs for businesses, helping boost growth. However, it was not specified which fuel tax would be cut exactly, or by how much. Vietnam is currently facing mounting inflation pressure due to its reliance on imported fuel, equipment, fertilizers and materials. However, the Finance Minister stated that inflation still remains under control, with consumer prices in the first five months of 2022 having risen by only 2.25% from a year earlier. The country targets inflation below 4% for 2022. The Finance Minister stated that Viet Nam’s domestic food production, particularly in rice, has helped offset inflationary pressure.


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JAPAN
Japan government bonds remain in negative yields as other central banks hike rates

(10 June 2022) Japan is the last major economy with negative yields beyond short-term interest rates, with Japan’s central bank committed to maintaining its low interest rates despite other major central banks raising rates. This is due to economic growth in Japan remaining sluggish while inflation remains lower than in other major economies. The yield on two-year Japanese government bonds came to minus 0.07% as of 08 June 2022. The five-year yield was also negative. Japan’s low rates have been a major factor in the yen’s weakness among other major currencies, which shows no signs of abating. Japan’s currency on 09 June touched 134.50 yen against the dollar — its weakest point since February 2002. Should it weaken beyond 135.20 yen, it would bring the exchange rate to a level not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998.

SOUTH KOREA
Production and port activity in South Korea disrupted by truckers strike

(09 June 2022) Truckers in South Korea went on strike for a third day to protest rising fuel prices, disrupting production and port activity, and further straining global supply chains. About 7,200 members, or roughly 30% of the Cargo Truckers Solidarity union, were on strike. Steelmaker POSCO said it had been unable to ship about 35,000 tonnes of steel products from two plants daily since the strike began – equivalent to roughly a third of its daily shipments from those plants. Hyundai Motors had also seen disruptions to production at plants in Ulsan due to truck drivers refusing to deliver components. The Korean Shippers Council also stated that ports were being affected, with ‘only a minimal amount of cargo getting into ports right now.’ The truckers, regarded as self-employed contractors in South Korea, are seeking wage increases and a pledge that an emergency measure guaranteeing freight rates will be extended beyond December 2022.

CHINA
Chinese financial markets see rebound in activity following lifting of Shanghai lockdowns
(10 June 2022) Chinese financial markets have seen a rebound in activity after Shanghai officially reopened following a two-month lockdown and Beijing further loosened COVID-19 curbs, spurring bets of an economic rebound and a return of foreign inflows into the country. The introduction of pro-growth measures has also helped stabilize expectations for China’s economy. Yuan-trading volumes in the onshore market bounced off two-year lows while stock market turnover topped the 1 trillion yuan (US$149 billion) mark for two straight sessions this week, pushing the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a two-month high. Borrowing activity from financial institutions is also on the rise. Meanwhile, the Institute of International Finance estimated that China may have seen bond inflows in May after three straight months of outflows through April.

CARI Captures Issue 556: Brunei’s 2021 GDP falls at fastest pace in five years

BRUNEI
Brunei’s 2021 GDP falls at fastest pace in five years

(29 May 2022) Brunei’s economy recorded a -1.6% GDP growth rate last year, its biggest decline since the 2016 oil price crash when GDP growth came in at -2.48%. The decline was mainly due to reduced activity in the oil and gas sector caused by manpower shortages and ageing oil and gas fields. Oil and gas contribute to around half of Brunei’s GDP but oil output fell from 105,000 barrels a day in Q4 2020 to 103,400 barrels a day in Q4 2021, following the record low 97,100 barrels a day in Q3 2021 due to COVID-19 related disruptions. Nevertheless, analysts expect Brunei’s economy to recover in 2022 with higher energy prices and the rolling back of pandemic restrictions.

SINGAPORE, INDONESIA
Bilateral merchandise trade rose 21% in 2021

(1 June 2022) Trade in goods between Indonesia and Singapore saw a 21% year-on-year increase last year totalling US$43 billion. Indonesia is Singapore’s sixth-largest trading partner, while Singapore is Indonesia’s top source of foreign direct investment (FDI), a position it has held since 2014. FDI inflows to Indonesia originating from Singapore totalled US$9.3 billion last year, representing 14.9% of Indonesia’s total FDI. The figures were shared by Singapore’s trade and industry minister during his visit to Indonesia this week, during which both sides discussed greater cooperation in energy, infrastructure development and the digital economy.

THAILAND, VIETNAM
Thailand may join with Vietnam to control the rice trade

(27 May 2022) Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha hopes that Thailand and Vietnam can jointly raise the prices of their rice exports to take advantage of global food shortages and rising inflation. Thailand’s rice exports are experiencing a rebound as the global economy reopens, with exports projected to reach eight million tonnes in 2022, up from six million tonnes exported in 2021. Nevertheless, Thailand’s rice exporters say that such an increase would not make sense since global rice supplies remain abundant and rice export prices from India—which accounts for 40% of global supply—hit a five-year low just last week.

THAILAND, INDONESIA
KBank to buy a majority stake in Indonesia’s Bank Maspion

(31 May 2022) Thailand’s Kasikornbank (KBank) has entered a conditional sale and purchase agreement to buy a majority stake in Indonesia’s PT Bank Maspion for around US$220 million. Kbank will own no less than 67.5% of the Indonesian bank when the deal is completed by the end of 2022, up from the 9.99% stake that it acquired in 2017 for US$20 million. The acquisition will enable KBank to conduct commercial banking activities in Indonesia without having to apply for a new licence which requires a minimum capital investment of US$700 million. The bank previously opened its first branch in Vietnam in 2021 and is establishing a presence in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia to stop subsidising chicken breeders in July

(1 June 2022) The Malaysian government will no longer provide chicken farmers with subsidies beginning July 1 and will instead divert the RM720 million allocated for said subsidies “to the people.” The subsidies were put in place to compensate chicken farmers and traders who complained of slim profit margins due to rising operating costs and the mandated price ceiling of RM8.90 per kg for standard chickens which will be in place until June 5. Only 10% of farmers have claimed the subsidy so far and some traders were still going above the ceiling price despite the subsidy programme.

THE PHILIPPINES
RT-PCR test no longer needed for fully-vaccinated travellers

(27 May 2022) Fully-vaccinated locals and foreigners entering the Philippines will not need to present a negative COVID-19 test upon arrival beginning May 30. This applies to those aged 18 and above with at least one booster shot, those aged 12 to 17 with at least two vaccine shots, and those under 12 years of age accompanied by fully vaccinated adults. Travel insurance is also no longer required though it is still encouraged. Meanwhile, those who do not meet the vaccination requirements will still need to present a negative pre-departure test result and undergo quarantine.

ASEAN
Disney+ Hotstar leads Q1 subscriber growth in Southeast Asia
(31 May 2022) Sign-ups to Disney+ Hotstar accounted for 22% of the new 2.8 million subscription video on demand (SVOD) sign-ups in the first quarter of the year, bringing the aggregate customer base to 39.5 million according to a report which measured consumer consumption in the ASEAN-5. Disney+ Hotstar also became the first service to breach the five million subscriber mark in Indonesia, bringing the country’s SVOD subscriber total to 17.4 million. Korean and western content accounted for 30% and 23% of overall video consumption respectively, though the share of western content consumed in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore was notably higher than the regional average.


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SOUTH KOREA
South Korea rolls out measures to tame inflation

(30 May 2022) The South Korean government announced a slew of measures to lower the cost of living this week. This included (i) lifting import tariffs on seven key food ingredients such as pork, cooking oil, flour, and processed eggs, (ii) lowering value-added taxes on coffee and cocoa beans, and lifting value-added taxes on packaged processed food such as kimchi until 2023, as well as (iii) extending the 30% reduction in consumption tax on passenger cars until the end of the year. The measures are expected to see tax revenue fall by some US$477 million.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea reopens to overseas tourists after two years

(1 June 2022) South Korea reopened its borders to foreign visitors and began issuing short-term travel visas for the first time in two years on June 1. Foreign visitors can now apply for visas to enter the country for up to 90 days for business or leisure, whether individually or in a group. South Korea’s reopening stands in contrast to Japan’s, which will only allow a limited number of small tour groups to enter the country beginning June 10. Foreign visitors to the country totalled 967,000 in 2021, a 94.5% drop from 2019.

JAPAN
99.9% of households to have fibre optic networks by 2028

(1 June 2022) Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to cover 99.9% of Japanese households with high-speed fibre optic networks by 2028 and 5G wireless networks by 2030 as part of his vision to grow the country’s economy through digitalisation, according to a government policy shared this week. The government also aims to increase the number of citizens with digital expertise, such as in data science, from the current one million to over three million by 2026. The Kishida administration is banking on digitalisation to help drive the economy and solve challenges such as its ageing population and depopulation in rural areas.

CARI Captures Issue 555: Biden administration launches Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity with several ASEAN countries


 

ASEAN, UNITED STATES
Biden administration launches Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity with several ASEAN countries

(25 May 2022) The Biden administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) on 23 May 2022 during a visit to Tokyo, Japan. IPEF involves 12 countries, including the ASEAN Member States of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. IPEF is a US-led framework for participating countries to solidify their relationships and engage in crucial economic and trade matters that concern the region, such as building resilient supply chains affected by the pandemic. IPEF is not a free trade agreement similar to Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, as it doesn’t provide market access or tariff reductions. Some experts argue, however, that IPEF may provide the first steps towards a free trade agreement. The combined GDP of the participating countries represents 40% of the global GDP, and 60% of the world’s population. The four pillars of IPEF include connected economy, resilient economy, clean economy, and fair economy.

MALAYSIA, INDONESIA
Malaysia sees sustained competitiveness in palm oil exports even as Indonesia resumes exports

(22 May 2022) Indonesia’s recent decision to resume the export of palm oil on 23 May is not expected to impact the competitiveness of Malaysia’s own palm oil exports. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil, with Malaysia second. Global prices of palm oil have hit record highs this year due to the ongoing war in Ukraine affecting the supply of one of them, in this case sunflower oil. After Indonesia banned the export of palm oil on 28 April, India, which traditionally gets two-thirds of its palm oil from Indonesia, was forced to buy more from Malaysia and Thailand, while other frustrated importers have said they would decrease reliance on unpredictable Indonesian suppliers. The Malaysian government does not expect a big downward adjustment to crude palm oil prices following Indonesia's latest policy announcements. The Malaysian government is mulling a temporary cut in the export tax on crude palm oil by as much as half to help fill the global shortage of edible oil and boost Malaysia's market share.
 

MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE
Malaysia to ban export of chicken from 1 June onwards in order to ensure sufficient domestic supply

(24 May 2022) On 23 May, the Malaysian government announced that it would curb the export of chicken from 1 June onwards, in order to ensure there is sufficient domestic supply amidst rising prices. Rising chicken prices in Malaysia has been attributed to a supply shortage caused by the rising costs of chicken production (namely the rising price of chicken feed), disease infection and weather conditions. Apart from halting the export of up to 3.6 million chickens a month, Malaysia said it will create a buffer stock of chicken and optimize existing cold storage facilities under the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industries and agencies. Malaysian authorities will also recognize overseas slaughterhouses to increase supply, and recently abolished the approval permit system for importing whole and cut chicken. Malaysia’s export ban is expected to impact Singapore, which imports about 34% of its chicken from Malaysia. There is expected to be an adverse impact on the prices of chicken and related products in Singapore, with some wet market stallholders in Singapore claiming they may have to close temporarily.

THAILAND
Thailand aims to be global hub for electric-vehicle production with Japanese support

(26 May 2022) Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha claimed that Thailand aims to become the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) production hub through support from Japan. Prime Minister Prayut was speaking at the 27th International Conference on the Future of Asia organized by Nikkei Inc in Tokyo. The Prime Minister claimed that Thailand was employing all its resources to upgrade the country’s basic infrastructure, especially digital technology and transport service development, in order to facilitate foreign investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor, a planned advanced industries hub. Japan is Thailand’s second largest trading partner and top foreign investment, with 5,000 Japanese companies operating in the kingdom. The prime minister called for more Japanese investments into the Eastern Economic Corridor. The renewable energy sector in Japan was identified as one area which could see cooperation between Japanese and Thai private players.
 

THE PHILIPPINES
Philippines President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. names central bank governor Benjamin Diokno as his finance secretary

(26 May 2022) The Philippines President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signaled policy continuity by naming central bank governor Benjamin Diokno as his finance secretary. Incumbent monetary board member Felipe Medalla will assume Diokno's post until his term expires in July 2023. Marcos Jr. also named former University of the Philippines President Alfredo Pascual as his trade secretary, and earlier appointed competition commission chairman Arsenio Balisacan as his socioeconomic planning secretary, a post he held under the Benigno Aquino III administration. Marcos noted that his first priority will be the economy, identifying jobs, increasing prices of commodities, and relief for the business community as areas of focus. The Philippines economy grew by 8.3% in the first quarter of 2022, although the recovery faces risks from accelerating inflation, fallout from the Ukraine war, China's economic slowdown and rising interest rates. Marcos also stated that he would review the country's ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership due to concerns about the Philippines’ agricultural sector's competitiveness.

INDONESIA
HSBC considering initial public offering of its Indonesia business to tap into investor demand

(26 May 2022) Multinational banking firm HSBC Holdings Plc is examining an initial public offering (IPO) of its Indonesian business in order to tap into strong investor demand. Although HSBC is yet to file a formal IPO application, plans for a share sale in Jakarta are reportedly at an advanced stage. HSBC is in the midst of shifting its operations to Asia, shifting billions of dollars in capital and making new investments as it sells off and scales back unprofitable businesses in other regions. HSBC’s Indonesian business, which has more than 3,000 employees, booked a profit before tax of about US$129 million in 2021, according to company reports. In 2020, it had a total of 69 branches across 24 cities. The Jakarta Composite Index is the best performing major benchmark in Asia in 2022, up almost 5% this year. Indonesia has seen some of Southeast Asia’s most high profile listings this year, including GoTo Group, the nation’s biggest tech company.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam and UK seek greater trade and investment relations, bilateral trade doubled over last decade
(26 May 2022) At the Vietnam-UK Business Forum held on 25 May in London, both Vietnamese and British officials stated their intentions to bolster the trade and investment relations between both nations. The Forum was organized by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in collaboration with the UK Department of International Trade (DIT). Participants discussed prospects for trade and investment between the two countries’ enterprises in sectors such as agriculture, education, renewable energy and others. It also provided a platform for Vietnam to introduce its market potential to British investors, and for firms from both sides to share information and seek partnerships in order to take full advantage of the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVTFA). It was noted that bilateral trade between both nations has doubled over the last decade, and reached US$6.6 billion in 2021, up 17.2% from 2020.


RCEP Monitor


JAPAN
Japan to allow tour groups from 36 countries to enter country from 10 June onwards

(26 May 2022) The Japanese government announced on 26 May that it will allow tour groups from 36 countries to enter Japan starting from 10 June onwards. The government revised border controls to resume accepting package tours from 36 countries and regions where the COVID-19 situation is relatively stable, including countries such as Britain, Spain, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. Japan also intends to expand the number of airports that can accept international flights to seven. Throughout most of the pandemic, Japan has barred all tourists from entering the country. It is unknown how many tourists will be able to enter the country, with a daily cap on people entering Japan to be doubled to 20,000 in June, although tour groups are not expected to be counted in that figure. Prior to the pandemic, Japan welcomed a record 31.9 million foreign visitors in 2019.

AUSTRALIA
Australian retailers record fourth consecutive month of sales gains despite surging cost of living

(27 May 2022) Australian retailers recorded a fourth consecutive month of sales gains, despite surging cost of living led by the rise in prices of fuel and other goods. Sales advanced 0.9% in April to a fresh record US$24.1 billion, and the spending figures are expected to be a positive sign for second-quarter economic growth. Retail spending surpassed A$100 billion over the past three months compared with roughly A$80 billion prior to the pandemic, with household balance sheets buttressed from the fallout of the pandemic through fiscal and monetary support from the government. The latest numbers highlighted resilience among Australian consumers, despite surging inflation, rising interest rates and a cooling property market. It is unknown if this growth is expected to be sustainable, given declining consumer sentiment and rising interest rates.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea’s central bank tackles inflation through back-to-back interest rate hikes
(26 May 2022) South Korea’s central bank is seeking to tackle inflation through back-to-back interest rate hikes, with further aggressive increases forecasted. The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its benchmark policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75%, the highest since mid-2019, joining a global wave of monetary tightenings by other central bankers grappling with global spikes in prices. The BOK projects inflation to hit 4.5% in 2022, the highest level since 2008. Back-to-back interest rate rises by the BOK follow more than 100 cumulative basis points of hikes since August 2021, in one of the most forceful tightening campaigns ever by the bank. Analysts expect the BOK to take rates up to 2.25% by end-2022. The BOK expects the economy to expand 2.7% in 2022, down from its earlier forecast of 3% and slowing from an estimated 4% for 2021.