MALAYSIA, CHINA
China proposes new trade MoU with Malaysia in wake of US trade agreement
(03 December 2025) Malaysia is considering a new China-proposed trade MoU covering strategic sectors after Beijing raised concerns on 25 November over Malaysia’s 26 October US-Malaysia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed during President Trump’s visit. Malaysia’s trade minister stated on 02 December that discussions on the proposed MoU remain preliminary and will focus on investment flows and strategic sectors. “Strategic sectors” typically refer to tech supply chains, including semiconductors and rare earths. The minister said Malaysia’s team met Chinese officials in Beijing last week to clarify the wording of the ART, with Malaysian officials claiming that China was satisfied with their explanations. China’s concerns centre on ART clauses requiring Malaysia to align with US national security restrictions, including abiding by US controls on sensitive technologies and preventing circumvention by third countries. China has issued similar warnings to Cambodia and is expected to have expressed their concerns to Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam on their ongoing US negotiations. Chinese exports to Malaysia rose 3.6% in the first ten months of 2025, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose 14.3% and exports to the US fell 17.8%. Viet Nam and Thailand have adopted frameworks towards ARTs, while Indonesia is resisting US demands seen as onerous, including a demand to avoid using Chinese carriers when shipping to the US. Malaysia’s ART locks in a 19% tariff rate and includes concessions such as a commitment not to restrict critical mineral supplies to the US.

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AUSTRALIA
Beef exports hit record high despite earlier Trump tariffs
(05 December 2025) Australia’s beef exports reached 1.4 million tons in the first 11 months of the year, up 15% from the same period in 2024 and exceeding the previous full-year record of 1.34 million tons. The US remained the largest market, taking almost one-third of shipments, with exports to the US rising 17% year-on-year to 412,000 tons despite a 10% tariff imposed earlier by the Trump administration that has since been removed. Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) attributed the sustained US demand to historically low American cattle herd numbers and reduced domestic beef production. Exports to China increased 43% to 243,000 tons, and shipments to Japan and South Korea also grew. MLA noted that Australian beef production is expected to reach a new record in 2025, even with smaller herds in southeastern states due to prolonged drought. The organisation added that global beef demand continues to strengthen and said Australia is positioned to benefit from this trend into 2026.

JAPAN
Japan mulls enhancing oversight of regional lenders that receive public funding
(05 December 2025) Japan’s Financial System Council has approved a draft report proposing stronger oversight of regional lenders that have received public funds, following the discovery that Iwaki Shinkumi Bank in Fukushima provided financing to antisocial groups. The bank had been recapitalised with JPY 20 billion in taxpayer money in 2012 after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The draft report outlines measures to reinforce the functions of regional financial institutions, with enhanced monitoring focused on banks supported through public funds. The government also plans to increase grants for local bank mergers to promote further consolidation within the regional banking sector.

SOUTH KOREA
President Lee Jae-Myung using strong approval ratings to advance investor-focused reforms
(05 December 2025) South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has consolidated domestic and international stability a year after the failed martial-law attempt by his predecessor, and is using strong approval ratings of 60% or higher to advance investor-focused reforms. He has secured concessions from US President Donald Trump, addressed labour-related tensions in Georgia, and negotiated a trade and investment deal that contributed to higher consumer confidence and a Bank of Korea upgrade of the 2026 growth outlook to 1.8% from 1.6%. The Democratic Party has revised the Commercial Act twice to enhance shareholder rights and is pursuing a further amendment requiring the cancellation of treasury shares, contributing to a 68% rise in the Kospi index from around 2,400 and supporting Lee’s target of 5,000. Concerns persist over rising property prices, with Seoul apartment prices increasing for a 44th consecutive week to 1 December, prompting Lee to label the market a “ticking bomb” ahead of June local elections. Lee has proposed constitutional reform to allow two consecutive four-year presidential terms, though no concrete steps have been taken. His AI-focused industrial strategy includes tripling AI-related investment to KRW 10.1 trillion, raising questions about dependence on the semiconductor cycle.

ASEAN
Several Southeast Asian countries impacted by severe flooding
(26 November 2025) Parts of southern Thailand have recorded record flooding over the past week, resulting in at least 33 deaths and affecting more than 2 million people. Hat Yai city reported 335mm of rainfall in a single day, described as its heaviest in 300 years, leaving vehicles and homes submerged and residents stranded on rooftops. Only 13,000 people have been moved to shelters, with the majority cut off from assistance. The Thai military has assumed operational control and is preparing to deploy an aircraft carrier, 14 boats carrying relief supplies, and field kitchens capable of producing 3,000 meals per day. The navy stated that the aircraft carrier could be converted into a floating hospital if required. Additional evacuation assets, including boats, high-clearance trucks and jet skis, have been deployed in Songkhla province. The cabinet has designated Songkhla a disaster zone to release relief funding. Regional impacts include 98 deaths in Viet Nam, more than 19,000 evacuees in Malaysia, and at least 19 deaths with seven missing following landslides in North Sumatra, according to the Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency. A Thai volunteer group, the Matchima Rescue Center, reported receiving thousands of evacuation requests over the past three days.

CHINA, MALAYSIA, CAMBODIA|
China raises formal concerns with Malaysia and Cambodia on US trade deals
(28 November 2025) China raised formal concerns with Malaysia on 25 November regarding portions of the US–Malaysia trade agreement signed in October, stating it has “grave concerns” and urging Malaysia to handle the matter in line with its long-term interests. Chinese officials received clarifications from Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry, though no details were disclosed. A similar meeting between China and Cambodia saw the Chinese trade envoy request that Phnom Penh address Beijing’s concerns, with Cambodian officials also providing unspecified clarifications. The complaints relate to US–Malaysia and US–Cambodia agreements that include commitments to align with Washington on national security matters such as export controls, sanctions, investment screening, and restrictions on sensitive technologies. Malaysia’s agreement includes preferential access for US goods and services, exemptions from the US 19% reciprocal tariff, and obligations to follow US trade restrictions, adopt US-aligned export controls and sanctions, prevent circumvention, and explore investment-review mechanisms covering critical minerals and infrastructure. Cambodia’s pact commits to removing tariffs on US food, agricultural, and industrial goods in exchange for exemptions from the 19% tariff, while requiring compliance with the US export control regime, adherence to the entity list, cooperation on third-country investment information and strengthened defence trade and transshipment controls. The agreements were signed during President Donald Trump’s visit to Malaysia and form part of a series of October pacts with regional economies including Vietnam and Thailand.

THE PHILIPPINES
Economic growth could recover to 5.5% by first quarter of 2026
(27 November 2025) The Philippines’ Finance Secretary said economic growth could recover to 5.5% by the first quarter of next year as government spending returns to pre-scandal levels following a halt linked to corruption in flood control projects. He described the pause as necessary to address leakages in infrastructure spending, with the former finance chief previously estimating that 25%–70% of flood control budgets were lost, costing up to USD 2 billion annually from 2023 to 2025. The new finance secretary said reforms, prosecutions, and efforts to recoup stolen funds would support a rebound, alongside improved external conditions such as the US-China trade truce and recent investment commitments, including Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ USD 860 million expansion. Third-quarter GDP growth fell to 4%, the weakest since the pandemic, with the central bank expecting corruption-related effects to persist into next year and forecasting a return to the 6%–7% target only in 2027. The finance secretary plans to convene multiple departments next week to prioritise easily deployable or near-completion projects to offset underspending. He noted that government expenditure accounts for nearly 17% of GDP but ruled out a major stimulus, emphasising fiscal discipline and targets to narrow the budget deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2024 and 5.3% in 2026.

INDONESIA, UNITED STATES
Indonesia rejects US demands for “poison pill” clauses in reciprocal tariff trade deal
(28 November 2025) Indonesia has rejected US demands to include “poison pill” or “loyalty” clauses in the reciprocal tariff trade deal currently under negotiation, with officials stating the terms excessively constrain economic sovereignty and are too one-sided. The clauses, which Washington imposed on Malaysia and Cambodia in agreements signed last month, would allow the US to terminate a deal if a partner signs a pact deemed harmful to US interests, and would require alignment with US sanctions, restrictions, and digital tax rules. Indonesia’s pushback emerged as the two sides work to finalise a July preliminary deal that imposed a 19% reciprocal tariff on Jakarta, with Indonesian officials emphasising concerns about losing autonomy over relations with other countries. Analysts said Indonesia’s larger economic scale, including USD 28 billion in goods exports to the US in 2024 versus Malaysia’s USD 53 billion, has strengthened its negotiating leverage, though the ultimate balance of power remains uncertain. The resistance underscores challenges for the US in persuading Southeast Asian partners to limit China’s role in regional trade and supply chains, with Beijing remaining a dominant trading partner and top investor in sectors such as nickel in Indonesia. The Malaysian deal has stirred controversy domestically, with critics warning it compromises sovereignty. Indonesia’s economic ministry has said negotiations are ongoing and may conclude this year, while a US Trade Representative official said Washington aims to expand bilateral trade while recognising each country’s sovereign rights over economic security.

SINGAPORE
China, United States, and Malaysia are top overseas postings for Singapore workers
(28 November 2025) China, the United States and Malaysia accounted for 18.3%, 13.6% and 10.1% of overseas postings for Singapore resident employees respectively, but only 3.1% of the resident labour force – about 76,000 people – had worked abroad full-time for at least six months, according to new data released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM). Overseas experience was most common among workers in their 40s (4.6%) and 50s (4.5%), with over half taking their first posting between ages 25 and 34, while the incidence among those aged 25 to 29 was 0.5%. Senior roles showed higher exposure, with 7.7% of managerial employees having worked abroad, and overseas experience increased with income, rising to 16.8% among those earning SGD 30,000 or more per month compared with 10.6% for those earning SGD 15,000–SGD 19,999 and about 3% for those earning SGD 5,000–SGD 9,999. Outward-oriented sectors recorded higher overseas exposure at 3.8% versus 2.2% in domestic-focused industries, with professional services (4.7%), information and communications technology (4.6%), finance and insurance (4.2%) and wholesale trade (3.8%) showing the highest levels. Workers with overseas stints were predominantly professionals (45.2%) and managers (30.7%), with manufacturing, finance and ICT the most common sectors for postings.

CAMBODIA
IMF projects Cambodia’s growth to slow to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026
(27 November 2025) The IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation projects Cambodia’s growth to slow to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, down from 6.0% in 2024 and an estimated 6.2%in the first half of 2025, as trade disruptions, border tensions and weak credit growth dampen investment and household spending. The IMF attributes the downgrade to declining remittances, softening tourism, tariff effects and margin pressures on manufacturers, alongside “anemic” domestic credit growth. Inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2025 before easing in 2026, with risks tilted to the downside due to vulnerabilities in garments and footwear exports, border-related impacts on tourism, and elevated private debt and rising non-performing loans. The Fund highlights additional concerns over high real estate indebtedness and governance risks but notes potential upside from deeper regional integration and the reintegration of returning migrant workers. Executive Directors describe the recovery as uneven and increasingly fragile, urging temporary fiscal support for vulnerable groups, gradual fiscal consolidation, agile monetary policy and the phased restoration of reserve requirements. They identify urgent financial-sector reforms, including ending forbearance by end-2025, strengthening supervision, improving stress testing, enhancing asset-quality reporting, developing crisis-management and insolvency frameworks, and establishing deposit insurance while addressing AML/CFT gaps. Structural reforms to diversify exports, raise productivity, improve competitiveness and strengthen governance are deemed essential.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam awards multiple 5G equipment contracts to Huawei and ZTE in 2025
(28 November 2025) Viet Nam has awarded multiple 5G equipment contracts to Huawei and ZTE in 2025, including a USD 23 million Huawei-linked consortium deal in April and at least two ZTE antenna contracts worth over USD 20 million, with one secured last week and the first publicly disclosed in September. These awards followed the White House’s imposition of tariffs on Vietnamese goods, though no link has been established. Procurement data indicates that while Ericsson, Nokia and Qualcomm continue to supply Viet Nam’s 5G core infrastructure, Chinese firms have recently secured smaller tenders with state-owned operators. The contracts have triggered concern among Western officials, who view the historical exclusion of Chinese firms from Viet Nam’s digital infrastructure as a precondition for support in advanced technologies. Western governments citing national security risks have banned Huawei and ZTE from their telecom networks, and the new Vietnamese contracts were discussed in two recent meetings among senior Western officials in Hanoi, including warnings from a US official about risks to network trust and access to US technology. Discussions have also covered whether sections of the Vietnamese network using Chinese technology could be isolated, though experts note that equipment suppliers could still gain access to network data. Additional developments include a June agreement on 5G technology transfers between Huawei and Viettel, according to Viet Nam’s defence ministry, with one Viettel source citing lower Chinese costs. The recent wins come as Viet Nam–China ties deepen, supported by progress on rail links and special economic zones near the border.

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SOUTH KOREA
Central bank keeps its policy rate at 2.5% over concerns of rising home prices and foreign exchange vulnerability
(27 November 2025) South Korea’s central bank kept its policy rate at 2.5%, matching forecasts from six economists citing the need to contain housing-market borrowing and manage financial stability risks. The decision follows the Bank of Korea’s last cut in May, when the rate was lowered by 25 basis points, and the board’s previous hold, which highlighted concerns over rising household debt and exchange rate volatility. The government has introduced loan-to-value limits under President Lee Jae Myung to reduce household exposure to real estate and support consumption. South Korea’s Finance Minister described the economy as being at a “turning point” and called for stronger backing of artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and other emerging industries. The meeting was the first rate decision since Seoul and Washington agreed a USD 350 billion investment arrangement, including a USD 20 billion annual cap on South Korea’s US investment to limit won depreciation risk. The easing of trade tensions with the US, a key market for semiconductor and auto exports, has strengthened expectations of improved growth. The economy expanded 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 after 0.7% growth in Q2, following a 0.2% contraction in Q1. BNP Paribas expects the BOK to revise its GDP forecast to 1% for 2025 from 0.9%, and to 1.6% from 0.9% for 2026, citing stronger semiconductor demand and expansionary fiscal policy.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korean equities retreat from early gains on steady rates
(27 November 2025) South Korean equities retreated from early gains after the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.50%, with the market closing 0.7% higher after rising up to 1.6%, while the won strengthened 0.2% despite an 8% decline in the second half of the year. Pantheon Macroeconomics said stronger growth expectations, reduced trade risks, and higher inflation linked to exchange rate passthrough likely push a potential rate cut from January to February, adding that the governor’s comment that rates are “near neutral level considering financial stability” signals limited remaining room for easing. Risk appetite across emerging Asia improved as US rate futures priced in an over 80% probability of a Federal Reserve cut next month. MUFG said easing external pressures, including lower oil prices and prospects of further US cuts, may support global sentiment ahead of year-end. Asian currencies were mostly steady, with slight appreciation in the rupiah and Malaysian ringgit.

AUSTRALIA
Core inflation rises to 3.3% in October, exceeding central bank’s target band
(26 November 2025) Australia’s core inflation rose to 3.3% in October, exceeding forecasts of 3% and surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band, while headline CPI reached 3.8%, driven by housing, food, and recreation and culture. Non-tradables prices rose 4.8%, tradables 2%, services 3.9%, discretionary goods and services 3.2%, and non-discretionary items 4.3%, reflecting persistent domestic price pressures. The data prompted gains in the Australian dollar (+0.6%) and a 14-basis-point increase in three-year government bond yields, and shifted market expectations toward a potential RBA rate hike in 2026 rather than a cut. Economists at UBS and Barrenjoey anticipate the first increase may occur in May 2026, potentially followed by further rises to 4.1% by August, though the bar for action remains high. The report was the first release of Australia’s new monthly inflation measure, though the RBA continues to focus on the quarterly trimmed-mean CPI, which excludes volatile items and better reflects domestic demand. Labor market tightness persists, with unemployment falling to 4.3% in October and annual wage growth remaining elevated, supporting inflationary pressures. The Assistant Governor noted the labor market is slightly beyond sustainable levels for inflation at target. The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.6% at its 8–9 December meeting. Analysts emphasise that ongoing inflation pressures and the unwinding of government energy subsidies may require tighter policy before any cuts are considered, contrasting with US Fed easing and New Zealand’s recent 25-basis-point reduction.

ASEAN
Total IPO proceeds in Southeast Asia in 2025 reach USD 5.6 billion
(19 November 2025) Southeast Asian IPO proceeds reached USD 5.6 billion as of 14 November, up 53% from full-year 2024 despite the number of deals falling to 102 from last year’s 136, according to Deloitte’s Southeast Asia IPO 2025 report. Deloitte attributed the rebound to larger issuers and an average deal size rising to USD 65 million from USD 27 million. Singapore led by total proceeds of USD 1.6 billion from nine listings, including NTT DC REIT (USD 824 million) and Centurion Accommodation REIT (USD 597 million), while Viet Nam raised a combined USD 1 billion from Techcom Securities (USD 525 million) and VPBank Securities (USD 484 million). Malaysia recorded 48 IPOs raising USD 1.1 billion; Indonesia saw 24 deals totalling USD 921 million, led by Merdeka Gold Resources (USD 279 million) and Chandra Daya Investasi (USD 144 million); major regional listings also included Thailand’s Mr. D.I.Y. unit (USD 174 million) and the Philippines’ Maynilad Water Services (USD 583 million). The report noted that 27 Southeast Asian companies listed in the U.S. raised USD 329 million, and three listed in Hong Kong raising USD 588 million. Deloitte expects sustained momentum into 2026, supported by regulatory reforms, improved sentiment and cross-border pipelines, though tariff policies, trade tensions and issuer caution may influence timing and offer sizes.

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CHINA
Urban youth unemployment rate declines to 17.3% in October
(18 November 2025) China’s urban youth unemployment rate for those aged 16–24 excluding students declined to 17.3% in October from 17.7% in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, though labour market pressures persist following the entry of 12.2 million graduates over the summer and the August spike to a post-2023-revision high. Graduates are increasingly pursuing alternatives to corporate employment, including further study and the national civil service exam, with 3.72 million applicants registered for the upcoming test compared with 38,100 available positions, creating a ratio of roughly one successful candidate for every 98 applicants; Beijing has also raised the exam’s age limit. Individual jobseekers report limited interview opportunities despite broad applications across sectors, citing economic unpredictability and a preference for stable civil service roles. The unemployment rate for those aged 25–29 excluding students remained at 7.2% in October, while China’s overall urban jobless rate declined to 5.1% from 5.2% in September.

CHINA
China accelerates consolidation of small and midsize financial institutions
(18 November 2025) China is accelerating consolidation of small and midsize financial institutions exposed to weak public-investment lending, with Inner Mongolia merging 120 lenders into Inner Mongolia Rural Commercial Bank in May and Henan combining 25 lenders into a new bank in February; the National Financial Regulatory Administration reported a net reduction of 225 institutions in the first half of 2025, exceeding the 195 decline recorded in all of 2024. Most closures involved rural institutions, which account for about 80% of China’s financial entities, and further mergers are under way, including 13 institutions in Jilin and planned consolidation in Xinjiang, driven by economic slowdown, population outflows and mounting local government financial stress. Local authorities face sharply reduced land-sale revenue, down around 60% from its 2021 peak, and rising off-budget debt linked to unprofitable local government financing vehicles, with IMF estimates placing outstanding LGFV debt at roughly CYN 60 trillion in 2023; Beijing has committed CYN 10 trillion over five years to contain hidden debt, though analysts argue the scale remains insufficient. The Central Committee’s recommendations for the 2026–2030 plan call for coordinated risk management across real estate, local government debt and small and medium financial institutions. Regional banks hold nearly CYN 1.4 trillion in nonperforming loans despite CYN 530 billion in public support over five years, raising concerns that bad-loan levels could increase without economic improvement. While mergers are expected to create economies of scale, analysts emphasise the need for stronger governance, noting past issues including misconduct, supervisory failures and the near-collapse of Baoshang Bank in 2019.

JAPAN
Economy contracts annualised 1.8% in July-September quarter, first decline in six quarters
(17 November 2025) Japan’s economy contracted an annualised 1.8% in the July–September quarter, or 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters and narrower than the median market estimate of 2.5% annualised and 0.6% quarterly, with government data attributing the downturn mainly to weaker exports following the implementation of a baseline 15% US tariff on most Japanese imports. Net external demand subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth after contributing 0.2 points in the previous quarter, as automaker shipment volumes fell sharply following earlier front-loading before tariff increases. Housing investment declined due to tighter energy-efficiency regulations introduced in April. Private consumption rose 0.1%, in line with expectations but slower than the 0.4% increase in the second quarter, while capital spending grew 1.0%, exceeding the 0.3% estimate. Economists characterised the contraction as driven by one-off factors such as housing investment and maintained a view of gradual recovery over the next one to two years. A Japan Centre for Economic Research poll of 37 economists forecasts a 0.6% expansion in the fourth quarter. The data coincides with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government preparing a stimulus package in response to high living costs, with advisers likely to cite weak GDP results in calling for caution in Bank of Japan rate-hike plans.

ASEAN
Private funding for ASEAN’s digital economy lags global growth rate
(11 November 2025) Private funding for Southeast Asia’s internet economy increased 15% year-on-year to USD 7.7 billion in the 12 months to June 2025, remaining about 70% below the 2021 peak of USD 27 billion and below the global private equity and venture capital growth rate of 25%, according to a report by Google, Temasek, and Bain. The report noted a shift toward late-stage investments, with seed-to-Series B funding falling from roughly 30% to about 20% over the period. For the first time, the report expanded its market coverage to include Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar. AI-related funding accounted for 32% of private capital raised in the first half of 2025 versus 30% in the second half of 2024, with over 680 AI startups securing more than USD 2.3 billion in the year to June, including more than 495 based in Singapore. The report highlighted accelerated data centre expansion, projecting Southeast Asia’s capacity to increase 2.8-fold once planned projects are completed, compared with 2.2-fold growth for the broader Asia-Pacific region. It cited major commitments such as TikTok’s nearly USD 4 billion data hosting plan in Thailand and further planned investments by Google and Amazon of USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, respectively. Malaysia is expected to lead regional capacity growth with 2,415 MW of planned additions out of the region’s 4,620 MW total, supported by investments from Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tencent, Huawei, and Alibaba, driven by favourable land and electricity costs and strong projected AI demand.

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SOUTH KOREA
South Korea to raise passenger electric vehicle subsidies by 20% in 2026
(14 November 2025) South Korea will raise passenger electric vehicle subsidies by 20% to KRW 936 billion in 2026, up from KRW 780 billion this year, as part of a support package designed to mitigate risks from U.S. tariffs and bolster domestic EV demand. The package includes policy finance exceeding the KRW 15 trillion provided to auto parts suppliers in 2025 and expanded guarantee programmes offering long-term, low-interest loans to parts makers operating overseas, including in the United States and Mexico. The auto sector exported USD 70.8 billion in 2024, representing over 10% of South Korea’s total exports, with Hyundai Motor and Kia facing a 25% U.S. tariff that was reduced to 15% under a recent bilateral agreement. However, the lower tariff has not yet taken effect because both countries have yet to issue the joint fact sheet required to formalise the agreement, despite its announcement more than two weeks ago by U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

AUSTRALIA
Home loans reach record high in third quarter, reinforcing RBA’s pause
(12 November 2025) Australian Bureau of Statistics data show new residential lending reached a record high in the third quarter, with investor loans rising 13.6% over the September quarter to their strongest level since early 2022 and lifting total dwelling finance to a new peak; investor lending now accounts for about 40% of new loans. Owner-occupier lending also increased in both number and value. ABS attributed the trend to lower borrowing costs and tight rental markets. The data indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s three rate cuts this year have eased financial conditions while inflation remains above target, supporting the RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate at 3.6% and signal a prolonged pause. Commonwealth Bank assessed the lending increase as evidence of a sustained cyclical upturn and as marginal support for the RBA’s stance against additional near-term cuts. The lending figures follow consumer sentiment data showing optimism for the first time in almost four years, while labour market data due Thursday are expected to show unemployment declining to 4.4% in October.

AUSTRALIA
Consumer confidence rise 12.8% in November, marking first return to net optimism since February 2022
(11 November 2025) Australia’s consumer confidence rose 12.8% in November to 103.8, according to Westpac, marking the first return to net optimism since February 2022 and ending a 44-month period dominated by pessimism; Westpac cited strengthening domestic demand and housing activity as key drivers. The Reserve Bank maintained the cash rate at 3.6% last week and indicated limited scope for near-term easing despite three cuts earlier this year. Households’ assessment of their financial position improved, with the family finances next-12-months sub-index up 12.3% to 109.1, though households with mortgages recorded a 0.3% decline in expectations. Labour-market concerns increased, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rising 9.3% to 139.5. NAB’s October business survey showed declining business confidence but stronger conditions, supported by gains in profitability and trading, while employment was stable. Consumer sentiment toward major purchases strengthened sharply, with the time-to-buy-a-major-item index up 14.9% to 111.6, though the family-finances-vs-a-year-ago sub-index remained in pessimistic territory at 85.2. Homebuyer sentiment was little changed, with the time-to-buy-a-dwelling index down 0.1% to 96.4, while house-price expectations increased 0.3% to 172.4, reaching a new cycle high.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines submits application to join CPTPP amidst growing trade protectionism
(03 November 2025) The Philippines submitted an application in August 2025 to join the 12-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), according to Japanese government sources. The submissions, sent to New Zealand as the bloc’s administrative hub, are the first since Indonesia’s in September 2024. Other pending applicants include China, Taiwan, Ecuador, and Uruguay. The CPTPP currently comprises Viet Nam, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, and the U.K., with Costa Rica in accession talks. Accession negotiations require unanimous consent from existing members, and a decision on new applicants could be made at the upcoming ministerial meeting later this year. The U.K.’s accession took over two years to conclude. The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry described Manila’s application as a “strategic move” to safeguard its economic future amid growing global trade protectionism. Japan has called the Philippines a “promising candidate,” noting its closer economic and security ties with Tokyo, including a reciprocal access agreement that took effect last year. Japan’s 2017 estimates projected CPTPP membership could raise its GDP by 1.5%, with the 12 current members representing about 15% of global GDP.

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SOUTH KOREA
Consumer price index increases by 2.4% year-on-year in October 2025
(04 November 2025) South Korea’s consumer price index increased by 2.4% year-on-year in October 2025, the highest level since July 2024 and above both September’s 2.1% and analysts’ expectations of 2.1%, according to government data. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, exceeding forecasts of no change. The acceleration strengthens the case for maintaining current monetary policy, with the Bank of Korea keeping its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive month in October amid rising property prices and currency volatility. The Bank of Korea governor stated that most of the seven-member board remains open to a possible rate cut within three months, though analysts suggest the easing cycle has effectively ended at 2.50%. Citigroup projected short-term deflationary pressures in agricultural and service prices following the holiday season, while the market median expects one additional rate cut in November before a prolonged pause.

AUSTRALIA
Home prices rise 1.1% in October, fastest monthly increase since June 2023
(02 November 2025) Australian home prices rose 1.1% in October, the fastest monthly increase since June 2023, with both national and capital city indices reaching new records, according to property consultancy Cotality. Perth recorded the highest rise at 1.9%, followed by Brisbane at 1.8%, Darwin at 1.6% and Sydney at 0.7%. The increase came ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.6%, after three rate cuts since February. Cotality attributed the upturn to lower borrowing costs and expanded first home buyer incentives, noting that middle and lower-priced housing segments drove most gains as affordability constraints shifted demand. The upper quartile segment showed the weakest growth across major cities. National home sales are tracking 3.1% above the five-year average, while listings over the four weeks to 26 October were 18% below average, indicating continued supply shortages. Median dwelling value in Sydney reached AUD 1.26 million, about 11 times the median household income. Gross rental yields fell to 3.4%, the lowest since October 2022, as rents rose but housing values climbed faster. Bloomberg Economics’ said the RBA’s rate cuts in February, May and August are supporting demand amid tight housing supply.

NEW ZEALAND
Unemployment rate rises to 5.3% in third quarter of 2025
(05 November 2025) New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the previous quarter, reaching its highest level since late 2016, according to Statistics New Zealand. Employment was flat quarter-on-quarter, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase, and total employment remained 45,000 below its late-2023 peak. The labour force participation rate declined to 70.3%, the lowest since 2020, while annual wage inflation eased for the tenth consecutive quarter, with non-government ordinary time wages up 2.1% year-on-year versus 2.2% previously. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut the Official Cash Rate by 300 basis points since August 2024 to 2.5% and is expected to reduce it by a further 25 basis points to 2.25% at its 26 November meeting, following weaker-than-expected job creation. ASB Bank said further monetary easing may be needed if the economic recovery remains subdued. The New Zealand dollar fell to 56.43 US cents and reached a 12-year low against the Australian dollar, reflecting policy divergence as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.6%.

ASEAN
Trade takes center stage at recent ASEAN Summit held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
(27 October 2025) ASEAN leaders agreed to upgrade the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) during the recent ASEAN Summit held in in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, with the upgraded agreement to expand the number of tariff-free goods, streamline customs procedures, and reduce nontariff barriers. The move, described by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as a “decisive step forward,” seeks to strengthen intraregional trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. and China amid global trade tensions driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The original ATIGA removed around 98% of tariffs within the bloc, but the value of intra-ASEAN trade fell from 25% of total trade in 2010 to 21% in 2024. A draft chairman’s statement affirmed ASEAN’s commitment to an open, rules-based trading system. Leaders also discussed the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement to establish regional rules for e-commerce, logistics, and data industries. In parallel, the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) held its first summit since taking effect in 2022. Among other things, the bloc committed to advance the accession process of applicants. Thus far, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, and Chile have expressed interest in joining the trade bloc. China is promoting participation in multilateral trade frameworks such as the RCEP to counter the effects of U.S. tariffs. ASEAN and China also signed the upgraded ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0, with the deal expanding cooperation into new areas, including the digital and green economies, supply chain resilience, consumer protection, and support for MSMEs.

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SOUTH KOREA, UNITED STATES
South Korea and the United States reach trade deal at APEC Summit
(29 October 2025) South Korea and the United States have reached terms on a trade deal under which Seoul will invest USD 350 billion in the US, including USD 200 billion in cash. The agreement, discussed during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Seoul, provides for South Korea to invest up to USD 20 billion annually in exchange for the US lowering tariffs on South Korean goods to 15%. The deal builds on a July framework announced after President Lee Jae Myung’s meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, though no written document or final timeline has yet been confirmed. Disagreements persist over payment terms, with Trump demanding an upfront contribution and Seoul warning this could destabilize its currency. Both leaders reiterated their commitment to economic cooperation, with Lee pledging expanded US-based investment to support American manufacturing. Trump described South Korea as a key partner in shipbuilding and broader industrial collaboration. Public opposition remains high: a Realmeter–Economy Business Newspaper poll found 80.1% of South Koreans view the USD 350 billion demand as unfair. Frictions were heightened by the recent arrest of hundreds of South Korean workers at a Hyundai–LG Energy Solution battery factory in Georgia. Lee acknowledged remaining “sticking points” but said the pact must not create “catastrophic consequences” for South Korea, while Trump said the deal was “pretty close to being finalised.”

AUSTRALIA
Consumer price index rises 3.2% year-on-year in third quarter, fastest pace in over a year
(28 October 2025) Australia’s consumer price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, its fastest pace in over a year and above both the 2.1% recorded in the previous quarter and the 3% forecast by economists, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The largest increases were in housing, recreation and culture, and transport. The trimmed mean inflation rate climbed to 3% from 2.7%, marking its first rise since December 2022. The data placed headline inflation above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%–3% target range for the first time since mid-2024. Analysts said the figures would likely delay expectations of interest rate cuts, with AMP forecasting that the RBA will hold its 3.6% cash rate through November and December. The RBA had previously warned inflation could be higher than expected, citing persistent price pressures in housing and market services. The RBA governor acknowledged that inflation was slightly above expectations but said it was not “running away.” Recent monthly CPI readings of 2.8% in July, 3% in August, and 3.5% in September reflected steady upward momentum. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.21% to 0.6596, while the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.76% following the release. Australia’s economy grew 1.8% in the second quarter, above both the 1.6% forecast and 1.3% recorded previously.

CHINA
Industrial profits rise 21.6% year-on-year in September, sharpest increase since November 2023
(27 October 2025) Profits at Chinese industrial enterprises rose 21.6% year-on-year in September, the sharpest increase since November 2023 and the second consecutive monthly gain, following a 20.4% rise in August, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on 27 October. Cumulative profits for the first nine months of 2025 increased 3.2%. The growth exceeded Bloomberg Economics’ forecast of 3.9%, driven by higher factory and mining output, slower declines in producer prices, and government measures to reduce overcapacity. NBS attributed the rebound to more active macroeconomic policies and growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing. The improvement, however, reflects a low base from 2024 when profits had fallen sharply for four straight months through November. Surveys by the People’s Bank of China indicated stronger corporate loan demand and improved business conditions in the third quarter, alongside rising raw material and sales prices, suggesting the impact of recent “anti-involution” policy efforts. Nonetheless, domestic demand remains weak, with households showing reduced confidence in employment and consumption. The Communist Party, in an October 23 communiqué, reaffirmed its commitment to meeting the 2025 growth target by stabilising jobs, firms, markets, and expectations, and signalled readiness to enhance macroeconomic support if required. Authorities have recently unveiled funding measures totalling one trillion yuan to bolster investment and local government finances.

THAILAND
Thailand to introduce incentives to boost domestic travel amidst sluggish tourism
(15 October 2025) Thailand’s Finance Minister announced on 15 October that new incentives to stimulate domestic travel, including soft loans and tax measures, will be proposed to the cabinet next week. Citizens travelling domestically between 29 October and 15 December will be eligible for tax deductions of up to THB 20,000 (USD 616.90). The measures form part of a broader stimulus package aimed at achieving 2.2% GDP growth in 2025. Other ongoing initiatives include a USD 1.4 billion co-payment scheme covering living costs for 20 million people, a USD 49 billion state enterprise investment budget projected to add 0.3 percentage points to GDP, and a planned USD 307 million purchase of bad debt. Tourist arrivals have declined 7.5% year-on-year to 25.1 million, compared to nearly 40 million before the pandemic. The Federation of Thai Industries reported the first rise in industrial sentiment in seven months in September, citing confidence in policy execution, while forward sentiment for the next three months remains positive. The National Economic and Social Development Council projects 2025 GDP growth between 1.8% and 2.3%, with potential slowdown in the second half due to U.S. tariffs, high household debt, weak consumption, and a strong baht. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s administration faces a limited timeframe to deliver economic outcomes before parliament dissolution by end-January and elections scheduled by April.

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JAPAN
Japanese retailers record profit jump amidst price increases for daily essentials
(16 October 2025) Eighty-three listed Japanese retailers recorded flat total sales of JPY 11.75 trillion (USD 77.52 billion) for the June–August period but achieved a 7% year-on-year rise in combined operating profit to JPY 558.5 billion, driven by price increases for daily essentials. About 70% of companies posted higher revenue in this segment, supported by a 6.5% year-on-year rise in processed food prices in August, marking 11 consecutive months of acceleration. Life Corp.’s same-store sales rose 3%, aided by higher food prices, while department store J. Front Retailing reported record sales from high-income clients benefiting from a “wealth effect” tied to strong stock prices. However, real wages remained negative for eight consecutive months, constraining consumer purchasing power and reducing the number of items bought per customer. Discount retailers benefited, with Can Do’s operating profit rising sixfold and Watts’ doubling, while Aeon posted a 20% profit increase after expanding its low-cost My Basket chain and cutting private-label prices. In contrast, Seven & i revised its 7-Eleven domestic profit forecast down by JPY 30 billion, citing intensified competition from drugstores and discount food sellers. Drugstore operator Create SD reported a 7% rise in food division profit, reflecting consumer shifts toward lower-priced essentials. Aeon executives observed rising demand for substitutes such as noodles and bread amid high rice prices. Analysts expect inflation to moderate next year if the yen stabilises, while others warned that slowing wage growth could dampen consumption if inflation persists.

AUSTRALIA
Unemployment rate rises to 4.5% in September, above market expectations
(16 October 2025) Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021 and above market expectations of 4.3%, as the labour force expanded by 48,800 people, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Net employment increased by 14,900, below forecasts of a 20,000 rise, with full-time jobs up 8,700 and part-time positions up 6,000, while total hours worked grew 0.5%. Employment growth has slowed to 1.3% year-on-year from 3.5% in January. The weaker labour market data prompted investors to increase the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in November to 72%, from 40% previously, pushing three-year bond futures up 10 ticks to 96.62 and the Australian dollar down 0.2% to USD 0.6497, while the stock benchmark hit a record high. The RBA last held rates at 3.60% in September, following three cuts earlier in the year, with core inflation easing to 2.7% in the second quarter but showing signs of stalling in recent months. Economists said the RBA faces policy tension between persistent inflation and weaker labour conditions, noting that the bank had not projected unemployment reaching 4.5% in its forecasts through 2027. A 3.3% fall in September job ads, the sharpest since early 2024, further indicated labour market cooling. Policymakers, including Governor Michele Bullock, signalled that upcoming third-quarter inflation data at the end of October will be key to determining whether a rate cut in November is warranted.

CHINA
Household savings increases by RMB 2.96 trillion in September, highest monthly rise since March
(16 October 2025) Chinese household savings increased by RMB 2.96 trillion (USD 415.5 billion) in September, the highest monthly rise since March and above last year’s level, according to data from the People’s Bank of China. The acceleration in savings reflects reduced household participation in equities amid renewed US–China trade tensions, with deposits at non-bank financial institutions — often used for margin trading — falling for the first time in three months. Analysts noted that the shift from deposits to riskier assets has slowed, likely tempering recent stock market gains. China’s benchmark index has retreated from its highest point since 2022, while bond yields have eased as risk appetite declines. GF Securities analysts attributed part of the decline in non-bank deposits to temporary cash holdings as savers seek higher-yielding alternatives, while a government proposal to revise mutual fund fee structures may have further deterred short-term investors. Credit Agricole CIB said households are likely to remain cautious on new equity investments given tariff risks and the recent market rally.

ASEAN
Startup funding landscape stages impressive comeback in September 2025
(07 October 2025) According to Tracxn data, startup funding in Southeast Asia rose 125.6% month-on-month in September 2025 to USD 231 million, up from USD 84 million in August, and 58.7% higher year-on-year. The rebound indicates renewed investor confidence after months of subdued activity, with capital flowing into fewer but larger deals, reflecting a shift toward conviction-based investments in startups demonstrating resilience and scalability. Established regional funds such as Gobi Partners and returning global investors participated in the month’s transactions, suggesting a recalibration rather than withdrawal of capital. The surge also points to a potential transition toward a more disciplined and sustainable funding environment, driven by an investor focus on profitability and clear growth paths rather than speculative expansion, though volatility earlier in the year tempers expectations of a full recovery.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia proposes 2026 federal budget of MYR 419.2 billion, a 1.7% year-on-year increase
(10 October 2025) Malaysia has proposed a 2026 federal budget of MYR 419.2 billion (USD 99.24 billion), a 1.7% increase from the revised MYR 412.1 billion in 2025, comprising MYR 338.2 billion in operating expenditure and MYR 81 billion in development spending. Fiscal and economic outlook reports show revenue rising 2.7% year-on-year to MYR 343.1 billion, with the fiscal deficit expected to narrow to 3.5% of GDP from 3.8% in 2025. State energy firm Petronas will contribute a MYR 20 billion dividend, its lowest since 2017, reflecting lower crude prices and output. Subsidies and social assistance are projected to decline 14.1% to MYR 49 billion, in line with efforts to improve targeting and reduced commodity prices. Economic growth for 2026 is forecast at 4%–4.5%, while this year’s projection was revised down to 4%–4.8% amid U.S. tariff uncertainties, including a 19% levy on most Malaysian exports. Inflation is expected between 1.3% and 2% in 2026, compared with 1%–2% in 2025. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said ongoing fiscal reforms—including selective subsidy removal, minimum wage increases, and an expanded sales tax—are necessary to maintain fiscal discipline and resilience against external risks. Bank Negara Malaysia maintained its policy rate at 2.75% in September after a July rate cut, with the government noting that monetary policy remains supportive of stable growth.

THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES
Benchmark price of Thai white rice falls to ten-year low as the Philippines curbs imports
(09 October 2025) The benchmark price of Thai white rice 5% broken fell 1.9% to USD 355 per tonne on Wednesday, the lowest level since September 2015, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. The decline follows improved global supply conditions, with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization projecting record global rice production of 556.4 million tonnes in the 2025–26 season, leading to higher stockpiles. Prices have been easing from a 15-year peak in 2024, driven by strong demand and supply concerns. Above-average monsoon rainfall in India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has improved harvest prospects, and the government has lifted export restrictions to avoid domestic oversupply. The Philippines, the top global rice importer, plans to extend import curbs to support local farmers, although cheaper exports from Thailand and other suppliers may gradually lower retail prices in import-dependent economies across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

THE PHILIPPINES
Philippine Stock Exchange warns flood-control corruption scandal driving away investors
(06 October 2025) Philippine Stock Exchange President and CEO called for a “swift, credible and comprehensive” investigation into corruption allegations linked to government flood-control spending, warning that continued uncertainty was driving foreign investor withdrawals and weighing on market performance. Foreign investors have withdrawn approximately USD 684 million from the market this year and have been net sellers for six consecutive days as of Friday. The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index has fallen over 8% year to date, among the weakest in Asia, while the peso declined 0.8% against the US dollar on Monday. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has formed an independent commission to investigate the allegations, though Senate hearings were left uncertain following Senator Panfilo Lacson’s resignation as committee chair. Religious leaders cautioned against any whitewash. The Economic Planning Secretary said governance reforms were being considered to improve public spending transparency. The Stock Exchange CEO cited the upcoming initial public offering of Maynilad Water Services Inc. as a potential positive for investor sentiment. Severe weather and natural disasters, including a September super typhoon and a magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Cebu, have also contributed to recent market volatility.

THE PHILIPPINES
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas unexpectedly cuts rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%
(09 October 2025) The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Thursday, marking its lowest level since September 2022 and extending cumulative rate cuts since August 2024 to 175 basis points. Only seven of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the move, as most expected a pause amid peso weakness. The BSP governor indicated potential further easing this year, citing a weaker economic outlook stemming from reduced business confidence following a government graft scandal involving flood-control projects. The central bank said governance concerns and slower public infrastructure spending have dampened domestic growth prospects. The peso fell 0.5% to 58.235 against the US dollar and has declined about 2% over the past month, while Philippine stocks were the worst performers in the Asia Pacific. Remolona stated the BSP would defend the peso if depreciation became inflationary and did not rule out capital controls. Inflation has remained below the 2%–4% target since March, providing room for policy easing, with the BSP now viewing its “Goldilocks” rate as lower than the previous 5%. Analysts expect another 25 basis-point cut at the next meeting, bringing the rate to 4.50%. The BSP said a favourable inflation outlook and moderating domestic demand support continued monetary accommodation, while maintaining price stability. Policymakers acknowledged that the corruption scandal and tighter fiscal policy could slow state spending, which accounts for about one-fifth of GDP, and weigh on growth amid weaker exports and global trade uncertainty.

MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE
Johor-Singapore SEZ draws new investors with 2-in-1 appeal
(09 October 2025) Panellists at the Asia Future Summit highlighted the Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) as an emerging regional investment hub drawing firms that might not have considered either market individually. The director of the Economic Development Board’s JS-SEZ Programme Office said the initiative has broadened investor engagement opportunities, attracting companies from previously untapped sectors and markets. Johor’s investment, trade, consumer affairs, and human resources committee chairman reported MYR 56 billion in investments in the first half of 2025, driven largely by JS-SEZ projects, and expressed confidence in achieving MYR 100 billion by end-2025. The OCBC Malaysia CEO said 50% of interested firms in the zone are from China, citing its proximity to Singapore as a major advantage. The Q&M Dental Group CEO announced a SGD 130 million capital raise to expand operations in Singapore, Johor, and China, noting that Q&M runs 37 clinics in Malaysia, including nine in the JS-SEZ. The Johor state economic adviser said the zone enables multinational firms to locate headquarters and R&D functions in Singapore while maintaining manufacturing in Johor. Teo added that the Invest Malaysia Facilitation Centre–Johor is streamlining regulatory processes, while collaboration with Malaysian agencies aims to strengthen the local talent pipeline.

THAILAND
Bank of Thailand governor states that central bank retains room for further rate cuts
(10 October 2025) The Bank of Thailand Governor said the central bank retains room to further reduce its benchmark interest rate, currently at 1.5%, one of the lowest globally, to support growth and bring inflation back within the 1%–3% target range. Speaking ten days into his tenure, the governor stated the bank remains “ready to ease” if economic conditions warrant, noting that the full effects of previous rate cuts have yet to materialise. At the most recent policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates steady, with only two of seven members voting for a cut. Thailand’s headline inflation has been negative for six consecutive months, but the governor said there are no signs of deflation, with prices expected to normalise in the medium term. He also announced plans to purchase bad debts from over 2 million borrowers as a complementary measure to monetary easing. On the currency front, the governor attributed the baht’s recent appreciation to a weaker US dollar and capital inflows, adding that the central bank is monitoring movements for irregularities. He said online gold trading had increased currency volatility, prompting coordination with the finance ministry and traders to assess potential measures limited to online transactions. He also reiterated the importance of central bank independence in maintaining monetary stability.

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CHINA
China increases enforcement of import restrictions on US-made semiconductors
(10 October 2025) China has increased enforcement of import restrictions on US-made semiconductors, including Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips, by deploying customs officials to major ports to conduct stringent inspections, according to the Financial Times. The checks, which initially targeted Nvidia’s H20 and RTX Pro 6000D models designed to comply with US export controls, have reportedly expanded to cover all advanced chips potentially breaching US curbs. The move reflects Beijing’s focus on strengthening domestic semiconductor production amid ongoing US-China technology tensions. Earlier reports indicated around USD 1 billion worth of Nvidia’s high-end AI chips were smuggled into China between May and July, though this has not been independently verified. Nvidia’s RTX6000D chip, created for the Chinese market, has experienced weak demand, with some major firms avoiding new orders. Chinese authorities have previously accused Nvidia of breaching anti-monopoly law and instructed technology companies to suspend purchases of its AI chips. Despite progress by domestic chipmakers such as Huawei, industry engineers report Nvidia’s chips continue to outperform Chinese alternatives.

CHINA
China announces new port fees on US vessels as countermeasure to forthcoming US port charges
(10 October 2025) China’s Ministry of Transport announced new port fees on vessels owned, operated, or built by U.S. firms or flying the U.S. flag, effective 14 October, as a countermeasure to forthcoming U.S. port charges on China-linked ships. The fee will start at CYN 400 yuan (USD 56.13) per net tonne per voyage and rise to VYN 640 in April 2026, CYN 880 in April 2027, and CYN 1,120 (USD 157.16) in April 2028. The move follows a U.S. Trade Representative probe and new American fees on Chinese vessels—potentially exceeding USD 1 million for ships carrying over 10,000 containers—intended to bolster U.S. shipbuilding and limit China’s maritime dominance. Chinese vessels calling at U.S. ports will also face a flat fee of USD 80 per net tonne. China’s counter-tariff is expected to have a smaller economic impact on the United States due to its limited commercial fleet; Chinese shipyards produced over 1,000 commercial vessels last year, compared with fewer than 10 in the U.S. The escalation comes amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides in a temporary 90-day tariff truce ending around 9 November. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to discuss the issue at the APEC summit in South Korea at the end of October.

AUSTRALIA
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor states that economy is “in a pretty good spot”
(10 October 2025) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor told a parliamentary committee that the economy is “in a pretty good spot,” with inflation within the 2%–3% target range, a strong labour market, and rising household consumption offsetting weaker public demand. The RBA maintained its policy rate at 3.6% last month after three cuts since February, citing stronger household spending, housing market resilience, and sustained labour tightness as reasons to hold. Economists expect another rate reduction following the 3–4 November meeting, contingent on the 29 October third-quarter inflation report and September jobs data, which is forecast to show unemployment at 4.3%. The governor noted that while overall inflation is now inside target, services inflation remains persistent. The RBA’s policy stance contrasts with regional peers, as Indonesia and New Zealand continue to ease rates while Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia remain on hold. She also highlighted external risks from protectionist U.S. trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and softer Chinese demand, though she said Australia avoided worst-case tariff outcomes, receiving the baseline global rate of 10%.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
Central bank announces that new family of banknotes to be introduced in first half of 2026
(22 September 2025) Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) announced that a new family of banknotes will be introduced in the first half of next year, standardising the use of “Brunei Dollars” in place of “Ringgit” in line with the Currency Order 2004. The series will include five denominations — BND1, BND5, BND10, BND100 and BND500. BDCB stated that the banknotes will carry enhanced security features to strengthen protection against counterfeiting and to align with international standards in currency technology. The central bank emphasised that the initiative ensures currency integrity while supporting Brunei Darussalam’s gradual transition towards a digital economy. It added that all current banknotes will remain legal tender and circulate alongside the new series.

MALAYSIA, CHINA
Malaysia and China to hold preliminary talks on rare earth processing projects
(02 October 2025) China and Malaysia are holding preliminary discussions on a rare earths processing project that would involve Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional partnering with a Chinese state-owned company to build a refinery in Malaysia, with Beijing prepared to exchange its processing technology for access to Malaysia’s estimated 16.1 million metric tons of reserves. Khazanah confirmed rare earths are among the industries under study but said talks were at an early stage, while Chinese officials have not commented due to the National Day holiday. The refinery, expected to process both light and heavy rare earths, would represent a policy shift for China, which has previously banned exports of processing technology. Potential obstacles identified include concerns over Malaysia’s ability to provide sufficient raw materials, environmental risks, and regulatory hurdles, as mining requires multiple state and federal approvals, with bans on extraction in protected areas. Malaysia prohibits raw rare earths exports, except for a pilot mining project approved in 2022 to establish operating guidelines. China’s willingness to provide technical support was confirmed by Malaysia’s natural resources minister in August, who added that President Xi Jinping had limited cooperation to state-linked firms to protect trade secrets. The proposed joint venture is also seen as a move to counter Australian company Lynas Rare Earths, which already operates a processing plant in Pahang and signed a supply deal with Kelantan in May. A deal would make Malaysia one of the few countries with access to both Chinese and non-Chinese processing technologies.

THAILAND, MALAYSIA
Thailand forecasts 24 percent decline year-on-year in Chinese tourist arrivals in 2025
(01 October 2025) Thailand forecasts about 200,000 Chinese tourist arrivals during the 27 September–8 October Golden Week, a 24 percent decline from 2024, with tourism revenue expected to fall 17 percent year-on-year to THB 9.1 billion. The Tourism Authority of Thailand attributed the decline to persistent safety concerns despite Thailand’s visa exemption, while competitors Malaysia and Viet Nam reported stronger demand due to lower costs and improved perceptions of safety. Outbound bookings from China rose 28 percent this year with international flight capacity up 10 percent, but Thailand did not rank among the top 10 destinations, which included Ho Chi Minh City, Kuala Lumpur, Hanoi, Denpasar, and Singapore. Malaysia registered 1.8 million Chinese arrivals in the first five months of 2025, boosted by visa waivers and tourism campaigns, and expects Golden Week arrivals to at least match last year’s levels. Chinese tourists in Thailand are projected to stay six to eight nights with daily spending of around THB 6,600, primarily travelling from Beijing, Guangzhou and Chengdu, with additional demand from second-tier cities including Shenzhen and Xi’an.

THAILAND
Strong baht impacting exports, tourism, and household spending
(01 October 2025) Thailand’s baht has appreciated over 8 percent against the US dollar this year, strengthening from 34 on 01 January to 31.70 on 09 September before easing to about 32.40, pressuring exporters, tourism operators, and households. Export margins have narrowed, with US tariffs of 19 percent compounding difficulties, while business owners reported reduced competitiveness and uncertainty in long-term contracts. Tourism arrivals fell 7.52 percent year-on-year between January and September to nearly 24 million, with Malaysia the largest source market and China contributing 3.38 million. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects Chinese arrivals during Golden Week to drop 24 percent from last year’s 262,001, causing tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue for tourism businesses. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, facing an economy forecast to expand just 1.8 percent in 2025, has pledged stimulus measures to ease household debt, lower living costs, and provide small-business credit. Thailand’s Finance Minister said he asked the central bank to limit baht volatility, rejecting speculation that gold exports were the main driver of the currency’s strength, despite shipments of 88.4 tonnes worth USD 8.73 billion this year. Ratings agencies have downgraded Thailand’s outlook, with factory output contracting 4 percent in August and exports slowing to 5.8 percent growth, the weakest in almost a year. For individuals earning in US dollars, the stronger baht has reduced take-home pay in local currency, further weighing on household consumption.

THE PHILIPPINES
Massive corruption scandal and resultant unrests darkens growth outlook
(02 October 2025) A corruption scandal involving billions of dollars in fraudulent flood-control allocations in the Philippines has triggered mass protests, weakened investor sentiment, and pressured financial markets, with congressional hearings alleging collusion among lawmakers, public works officials, and contractors to divert funds into ghost projects and padded contracts, while audits revealed non-existent or substandard works. Witness testimonies of cash deliveries to politicians have intensified public backlash, leading tens of thousands to protest in major cities since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. disclosed in July that budgets were being looted. Economists have cut growth forecasts, with Security Bank lowering their second-half estimate to 5.5 percent from 5.8 percent and full-year projection to 5.5 percent, the bottom of the government’s target, while Sun Life reduced their outlook to mid-5 percent and warned growth could drop to 4.3 percent if spending stalls. The peso was Asia’s worst performer in September and the stock index posted its longest losing streak this year as offshore investors retreated, while the central bank cautioned of weaker investment inflows and service exports. Moody’s Ratings warned that prolonged unrest could dampen growth and delay fiscal consolidation, though it maintained that political risk and institutional strength remain broadly in line with peers. S&P Global Ratings projects GDP growth of 5.6 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent on average over the next three years, supported by investment-grade ratings, corporate tax cuts, and business incentives.

INDONESIA, CHINA
China requests Indonesia to guarantee long-term supply of resources
(01 October 2025) China has formally requested Indonesia to guarantee long-term supplies of crude palm oil (CPO), natural rubber, and edible bird’s nests to meet rising domestic demand, according to Indonesia’s Deputy Agricultural Minister, who said the request was conveyed by China’s Deputy Minister of Agricultural and Rural Affairs. Indonesia recorded a USD 1.77 billion agricultural trade surplus with China in 2024, led by palm oil exports worth USD 2.72 billion, followed by edible bird’s nests at USD 428 million, rubber at USD 363 million, coconut at USD 270 million, and cacao at USD 218 million. The Deputy Agricultural Minister noted that China is seeking supply certainty as its demand for palm oil increases, while Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, is simultaneously expanding domestic use under its biodiesel programme. The country is currently implementing B40, requiring a 40 percent palm oil blend in diesel, with plans to raise this to B50 next year. He added that Indonesia is working to strengthen palm oil productivity to ensure both domestic energy requirements and secure export commitments can be met.

VIET NAM
Property damage from Typhoon Bualoi estimated at VND 8 trillion
(01 October 2025) Viet Nam’s government estimated property damage from Typhoon Bualoi at VND 8 trillion as of 1 October, with nearly 170,000 houses damaged or inundated, at least 29 fatalities and 22 people missing. The storm, which made landfall on 29 September in northern central Viet Nam, caused widespread damage to infrastructure, including roads, schools, offices and power grids, leaving tens of thousands without electricity. More than 34,000 hectares of rice and other crops were destroyed, though no major damage to industrial facilities was reported despite the presence of large factories operated by Foxconn, Formosa Plastics, Luxshare and Vinfast in affected areas. Flooding spread into northern provinces and Hanoi, disrupting flights, train services and forcing school closures, while many homes were inundated. The disaster management agency’s preliminary report underscored severe agricultural and residential impacts but excluded large-scale industrial losses.

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CHINA
China launches K visa for foreign science and technology professionals
(02 October 2025) China’s new K visa for foreign science and technology professionals, announced in August and effective 2 October, has sparked intense domestic backlash after Indian media likened it to the US H-1B visa. The scheme, open to STEM graduates of recognised universities and research institutions in China or abroad, as well as those teaching or conducting research, allows multiple entries and longer stays without requiring local employer sponsorship. However, authorities have not clarified whether it permits employment in China, with state media stressing it is “not a simple work permit” and “should not be equated with immigration.” The controversy escalated after concerns were raised online about competition in a weak job market, leading to xenophobic comments, particularly targeting Indian nationals. State outlets including the Global Times and People’s Daily have defended the visa as a tool to attract global talent, positioning China as an alternative to the US, where H-1B fees have risen under Donald Trump. Official statements frame it as facilitating exchanges in education, science, technology, culture, entrepreneurship, and business. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has promised further details from embassies and consulates, without a set timeline. Experts note that while the visa aligns with China’s broader push to draw in talent as the US becomes more restrictive, its success may be constrained by language barriers, domestic scepticism, and limits imposed by China’s controlled political environment.

NEW ZEALAND
House prices rise 0.1 percent month-on-month in September, first increase in six months
(02 October 2025) New Zealand house prices rose 0.1 percent in September from August, the first increase in six months after a revised 0.4 percent decline the previous month, though values remain 0.2 percent lower than a year earlier, according to Cotality’s home value index. The rebound follows a two-year low in August and coincides with falling mortgage interest rates, now at their lowest in three years after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate to 3 percent in August from 5.5 percent in July 2023, with guidance suggesting a possible fall to 2.5 percent by year-end. Despite this, Cotality’s chief property economist cautioned that the September uptick was marginal and unlikely to indicate a sustained recovery, as buyer caution and a high housing supply remain. House prices fell 1.6 percent in the five months to August, and values may remain weak through 2025 amid subdued growth, with the RBNZ projecting a 0.3 percent contraction this year and economists expecting minimal expansion. The economy shrank 0.9 percent in Q2 2025, unemployment is at a five-year high, though improving consumer spending is expected to support a second-half rebound. Cotality added that further mortgage rate cuts could support borrowers refinancing fixed-term loans, with scope for house values to rise more consistently from 2026, though a sharp boom is unlikely given the slow recovery in the economy and labour market.

AUSTRALIA
Household spending rises 0.1 percent in August, below expectations of 0.3 percent growth
(02 October 2025) Australia’s household spending rose 0.1 percent in August, below expectations of 0.3 percent and following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in July, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, with annual growth at 5 percent against forecasts of 5.2 percent. The report showed services spending increased 0.5 percent while goods spending declined 0.2 percent, with the largest category falls in recreation and culture and in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, both down 0.9 percent, while airline travel and accommodation bookings increased. ABS noted spending has risen in 10 of the past 12 months, though the August rise was modest. The data add to the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to resume rate cuts, with economists expecting a move in November and money markets fully pricing one by March, after the central bank held the cash rate at 3.6 percent earlier this week. The RBA’s governor cited stronger-than-expected household consumption supported by real income growth, rising property prices and a tight labour market, with unemployment at 4.2 percent. Household spending, which accounts for about half of GDP, has been constrained by high debt levels, elevated borrowing costs and inflation, though improving incomes have provided support.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam pursuing new trade deals to mitigate US tariffs
(24 September 2025) Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said Hanoi is pursuing new trade agreements this year to counter U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports, which the United Nations Development Programme estimated could cut shipments to the U.S. by up to 20%, making Viet Nam the most affected country in Southeast Asia. Chinh forecast export growth above 12% in 2025, with exports reaching USD 325.3 billion by 15 September, a 15.8% increase year-on-year. To mitigate tariff impacts, Vietnam aims to conclude free trade agreements with Mercosur and the Gulf Cooperation Council by year-end, while continuing negotiations with Washington after the Trump administration’s 20% tariff on most Vietnamese goods. The White House has also imposed a 40% tariff on goods deemed transshipped through Vietnam, a risk compounded by Vietnam’s reliance on Chinese components. Chinh instructed officials to intensify enforcement against imports violating international copyright or origin standards, issues repeatedly raised by U.S. counterparts.

THE PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, THAILAND, EU
EU trade negotiations with Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia expected to be finalised by 2026
(25 September 2025) EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said negotiations on free trade agreements with Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia are advancing and expected to be finalised and signed by 2026. Speaking at a meeting between ASEAN economic ministers and the EU in Kuala Lumpur, he noted that the agreements would add to existing EU FTAs with Singapore, Viet Nam and Indonesia, the latter concluded this week after nine years of negotiations. Sefcovic described the bilateral deals as a “building block” towards a future EU–ASEAN region-to-region free trade agreement.

INDONESIA, EU
Indonesia and the EU sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(23 September 2025) Indonesia and the European Union signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in Bali after nearly a decade of negotiations, marking the EU’s third such deal in Southeast Asia after Singapore and Viet Nam. Signed by EU Trade Commissioner and the Indonesian Minister of Economic Affairs, the pact opens investment in electric vehicles, electronics and pharmaceuticals, and is projected to save EU exporters GBP 600 million (USD 708 million) annually in duties. Around 80% of Indonesian exports to the EU, including palm oil, footwear, textiles and fisheries, will become tariff-free once the deal takes effect, expected by 2027 following legal checks, translations and ratifications. Bilateral trade reached USD 30.1 billion in 2024, and the agreement gives the EU access to Indonesia’s 280 million-strong market. Negotiations were delayed by disputes over palm oil and deforestation but gained urgency from U.S. tariff policies under Donald Trump. A protocol on palm oil was included, though details remain undisclosed, with th EU reportedly offering “special treatment” on the EU’s deforestation regulation for signatory partners. The regulation, postponed to end-2025, bans imports of products from land deforested after December 2020. Activists, including Greenpeace Indonesia, warned the agreement could spur further deforestation. Indonesia described the CEPA as a “ten-year journey” aimed at mitigating risks from global tariff wars, while analysts said both sides sought alternative markets to counter protectionism.

INDONESIA, CANADA
Canada and Indonesia sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
(26 September 2025) Canada and Indonesia signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that will remove or reduce tariffs on over 95% of Canadian exports, including wheat, potash, timber and soybeans, and more than 90% of Indonesian exports, such as garments and leather goods. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the deal as timely, while Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto called it a historic first agreement with an ASEAN member state. The CEPA is aligned with Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy and strengthens Ottawa’s trade presence in the region. Alongside the trade pact, both governments signed a defence cooperation agreement covering military training, maritime security, cyber defence and peacekeeping.

THAILAND
Foreign visitor revenue to fall 20.2% in 2025 below pre-pandemic levels
(26 September 2025) The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) projects foreign visitor revenue in 2025 will fall 20.2% below pre-pandemic levels to THB 1.52 trillion, compared with THB 1.91 trillion in 2019, despite an expected 33.14 million arrivals, down 17% from 2019 and 6.7% lower than 2024. The sharper revenue decline reflects reduced spending per visitor, driven by a drop in high-spending Chinese tourists, a rise in lower-spending Malaysian visitors, and growth in budget-conscious Free Independent Travellers and backpackers. The Q3/2025 Tourism Business Confidence Index fell to 66 from 68 a year earlier, with businesses citing domestic deflation, global economic slowdown, currency appreciation, safety concerns, the Thai-Cambodia conflict, and flooding as key negative factors. Average industry revenue in Q3/2025 was 44% of 2019 levels, compared with a peak of 64% in Q1/2023. Regional data show the South as most resilient, with revenues at 50% of 2019 levels and occupancy at 62%, while the North recorded the lowest average revenue at 39%. Bangkok showed the most volatility. Sector-specific results highlight weak performance for tour operators and souvenir shops, while entertainment venues reported higher confidence. Employment has recovered to 87% of pre-pandemic levels, outpacing revenue recovery and raising concerns over profitability. Looking ahead, confidence is forecast to improve to 72 in Q4/2025, with the North expected to post the largest surge (Index 80), followed by Bangkok (75) and the South (74).

THAILAND
Fitch Ratings downgrades Thailand’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative
(24 September 2025) Fitch Ratings downgraded Thailand’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative while affirming its long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at “BBB+,” citing rising fiscal risks from political uncertainty and weak growth. Gross general government debt reached 59.4% of GDP in August, close to the ‘BBB’ median, after years of stimulus and delayed fiscal consolidation. The move follows Moody’s downgrade and poses challenges for new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who took office after Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted by court ruling. Thailand’s economy is projected to expand around 2% in 2025, about half the pace of Indonesia and the Philippines, pressured by a 19% U.S. tariff, weak tourism, high household debt and a strong baht. Fitch highlighted risks from continued large stimulus, uncertain fiscal strategy and demographic pressures. It warned Anutin’s pledge to call elections within four months could fuel spending, with fiscal deficits expected at 4.6% of GDP this year and 4.3% next year. The baht traded near a two-week low against the U.S. dollar, though it remains almost 7% stronger year-to-date after hitting a four-year high earlier in the month.

LAO PDR
Lao PDR seeking to develop carbon credit market and clean energy
(25 September 2025) Lao PDR’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment hosted the Carbon Markets and Clean Energy Conference 2025, bringing together government officials, development partners and private sector representatives to advance carbon market readiness and clean energy integration. The two-day meeting focused on establishing a carbon credit trading system, identifying policies to strengthen the market, and sharing best practices for climate adaptation. Participants discussed investment barriers, emphasising the role of the private sector in mobilising financial support for carbon and energy projects. The conference was positioned as a step towards developing Lao PDR carbon credit market and supporting national clean energy objectives.

RCEP Monitor

SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, UNITED STATES
Trump declares that South Korea will provide USD 350 billion in “upfront” investments
(25 September 2025) U.S. President Donald Trump said South Korea would provide USD 350 billion in “upfront” investments in U.S. projects, despite Seoul warning that such a commitment without safeguards could trigger a financial crisis. Trump compared the pledge to Japan’s USD 550 billion investment formalised earlier this month alongside a trade deal that lowered U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobile imports and other goods. South Korea maintains the negotiations are at a deadlock, with President Lee Jae Myung stating that safeguards such as a currency swap are necessary, though analysts consider such an arrangement unlikely. Seoul is pressing for most of the funds to be structured as loans rather than direct investments and for mechanisms ensuring project viability, while resisting U.S. demands for control over the funds. A South Korean government official reiterated the principle that any deal must meet national interests and be commercially feasible. Trump’s insistence on “upfront” payments has heightened political uncertainty, raising investor concerns that Seoul could face an unfavourable deal or no agreement at all.

SOUTH KOREA
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix add over USD 100 billion in market value in September
(26 September 2025) South Korea’s two largest chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have added over USD 100 billion in market value in September, driven by rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI applications and growing expectations of a broader semiconductor recovery. SK Hynix has surged on its dominance in HBM, while Samsung is catching up, with analysts from 20 firms including JPMorgan, Citigroup and Nomura forecasting its share price could surpass the 2021 record of KRW 91,000 within 12 months. Samsung shares have rallied 24% this month, their best performance since 2001, while SK Hynix is up 33%, yet both trade at lower forward price-earnings ratios (14x and 7x respectively) compared to U.S. peers at 26x. Foreign investors are on track for their largest-ever monthly inflows into the two firms in over 13 years, though overseas ownership of Samsung remains seven percentage points below its peak of 58%. Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, project a memory “supercycle” in 2026 as supply shortages emerge in DRAM and NAND due to production shifts towards HBM, reversing earlier pessimism about “legacy” chips. Overseas funds see further upside, citing cheaper valuations relative to U.S. chipmakers, interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and rising AI-driven capex by U.S. hyperscalers and Chinese firms. Nvidia remains the largest buyer of HBM, with AMD and Broadcom also expected to increase purchases as their AI accelerators gain traction. CLSA forecasts SK Hynix will retain its lead in high-margin HBM, while Samsung, benefiting from expanded HBM business with Nvidia, is now seen as well-positioned for sustained foreign inflows and revenue growth.

CHINA, MEXICO
China launches investigation into Mexico’s planned tariffs and other trade restrictions
(26 September 2025) China’s commerce ministry has launched an investigation into Mexico’s planned tariffs and other trade restrictions on Chinese exports, alongside an anti-dumping probe into Mexican pecan nuts, signalling one of Beijing’s strongest responses to deter countries from aligning with U.S. tariff policies. Mexico recently proposed a 50% tariff on Chinese cars and levies on about 1,400 products, including textiles and steel, affecting all non-free trade partners. The Chinese probe will cover both the new measures and earlier restrictions, citing risks to Chinese companies’ trade and investment interests. The move comes as Mexico prepares for a 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and faces U.S. pressure to curb China’s economic role, with Washington accusing Beijing of using Mexico to bypass tariffs. President Claudia Sheinbaum has said the tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, not escalate tensions with China. In 2024, Mexico exported USD 5.7 billion to China while importing USD 115 billion, with copper and minerals accounting for over 40% of exports. The pecan anti-dumping probe alleges sales below market value caused rising import volumes and falling prices, with a conclusion expected within 12 months, extendable by six. China has warned that Mexico’s unilateral measures would damage third-party trade interests, while signalling readiness to use indirect tools, such as rare earths export controls, to exert pressure.