CARI Captures Issue 726: The Philippines submits application to join CPTPP amidst growing trade protectionism

THAILAND
Total car production in September up 14.01% month-on-month and 4.77% year-on-year
(05 November 2025) Thailand’s Automotive Industry Club of the Federation of Thai Industries reported that total car production in September 2025 reached 128,104 units, up 14.01% month-on-month and 4.77% year-on-year, mainly driven by higher output of electric vehicles (EVs) and pickup passenger vehicles (PPVs), while pickup truck production declined due to economic pressure and tighter lending. Exports accounted for 85,625 units or 66.84% of production, down 2.33% year-on-year, with January–September exports totalling 708,694 units, a decline of 8.46% from 2024. Domestic sales-related production totalled 42,479 units, a 22.73% year-on-year increase, while cumulative domestic production for January–September rose 3.75% to 367,107 units. Domestic car sales reached 48,350 units, up 1.53% from August and 23.82% from September 2024, led by EVs, though pickup truck sales fell 4.00%. Exports of finished cars reached 86,056 units, up 20.90% month-on-month and 7.23% year-on-year, supported by new PPV and EV exports, while internal combustion engine exports fell 16.97%. Export growth was noted in markets including Australia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Central and South America.

THAILAND
Household debt reaches 88.2% of GDP in Q1 2025, ranking seventh globally
(04 November 2025) Thailand’s household debt reached 88.2% of GDP at the end of Q1 2025, ranking seventh globally, according to Trading Economics, and remains above the Bank for International Settlements’ sustainable threshold of 80%, which the country surpassed in 2012. The ratio peaked at 94.6% in 2021 and has since declined slowly, while the National Statistical Office reported average household debt of THB 144,871 as of June 2025, down from THB 197,000 in 2023. The International Monetary Fund forecasts GDP growth of 2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, with weakening consumer confidence reflected in stagnant housing markets, declining restaurant activity, and slow automotive recovery after a 26% contraction in 2024. Rising consumption-driven debt and tightened lending conditions have strained households across income groups, with pawnshops and informal lenders widespread. Krungsri Auto offers loans of up to 80% of a used vehicle’s value, while banks have increased collateral requirements. Farmers remain heavily indebted to banks and agro-industrial firms, with cassava and rice producers among the most affected by price drops. The Ministry of Social Development and Human Security reported over THB 20 billion in state pawnshop loans in 2024, primarily for gold and mobile phones. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who took office last month, has pledged debt relief subsidies of up to THB 100,000 per person and THB 1 million for small and medium enterprises to improve liquidity. The Bank of Thailand aims to reduce household debt to 80% of GDP within five years, though analysts warn that many households will remain burdened without stronger financial literacy and structural reforms.

MALAYSIA, UNITED STATES
Malaysian government defends reciprocal trade agreement with the United States
(04 November 2025) Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry stated on 03 November 2025 that the country’s sovereignty remains intact under its new reciprocal trade agreement (ART) with the United States, asserting that Malaysia is not bound by US sanctions and need not amend its existing laws to join the pact. The clarification followed criticism from former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, who called for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s resignation, alleging that the deal subordinates Malaysia to US interests. Lawmakers also raised concerns over clauses enabling Washington to impose new tariffs or influence Malaysia’s trade alignment. The ministry said Malaysia would act only on matters involving mutual economic or security interests, subject to consultations and cost-benefit evaluations. The Attorney-General’s Chambers stated separately that Malaysia retains the unilateral right to terminate the agreement, emphasising that all safeguards are designed to preserve national sovereignty and protect national interests.

MALAYSIA
Ringgit edges higher after Bank Negara Malaysia maintains rate at 2.75%
(06 November 2025) The ringgit closed higher on Thursday at 4.1820/1845 against the US dollar, up 70 pips from 4.1890/1925 the previous day, following Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% in its final Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2025. Bank Muamalat Malaysia said the unchanged rate is ringgit-positive and likely to persist as inflation remains moderate, while IPPFA Sdn Bhd said the move underscores policy stability and confidence in domestic demand resilience amid contained inflation. He added that the ringgit’s gains aligned with broader Asian currency appreciation, noting that the US dollar rally appears to be weakening. The ringgit also rose against the yen to 2.7202/7220, the Singapore dollar to 3.2034/2055, the Indonesian rupiah to 250.3/250.6, and the Philippine peso to 7.09/7.10, but declined against the British pound to 5.4696/4729, the euro to 4.8143/8172, and the Thai baht to 12.9178/9311.

VIET NAM
Trade surplus narrows for second consecutive month in October
(06 November 2025) Viet Nam’s trade surplus narrowed for a second consecutive month in October to USD 2.6 billion from USD 2.85 billion in September, as both exports and imports undershot expectations, according to the National Statistics Office. Exports rose 17.5% year-on-year to USD 42 billion versus forecast growth of 19.5%, while imports climbed 16.8%, below the 19.3% estimate. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI increased to 54.5 from 50.4, marking the strongest expansion in a year. Ho Chi Minh City Securities said exporters had secured sufficient orders ahead of tariffs but projected export growth to slow to 7–8% in 2026 due to the full effect of US tariffs. In the first ten months of 2025, Viet Nam’s trade surplus with the US reached USD 111 billion, up 28.2% from a year earlier, driven by frontloaded orders before tariff implementation. The US initially threatened a 46% levy, later reduced to 20%, slightly above rates imposed on neighbouring ASEAN countries. Under a framework announced on 27 October, Vietnam will grant preferential access to US industrial and agricultural exports, while the US will eliminate tariffs on selected products, though definitions of “transshipped” goods—subject to a 40% tariff—remain pending. Viet Nam’s trade deficit with China widened 38.6% to USD 93.9 billion in the same period. Consumer prices rose 3.25% in October, below the 3.5% forecast. The government targets annual GDP growth of at least 10% over the next five years, following an 8.2% expansion last quarter, the fastest in three years.

SINGAPORE
Singapore blocks 3% of 1,300 applications for family offices over past three years
(05 November 2025) Singapore blocked 3% of 1,300 applications over the past three years to establish tax-exempt family offices, and revoked tax incentives for two family offices linked to the Prince Group, the Deputy Chair of the Monetary Authority of Singapore told parliament. The Prince Group was sanctioned by the US and UK in October for operating scam centres using trafficked workers, with Singapore police seizing over SGD 150 million in related assets, including six properties, bank and securities accounts, and cash. The Deputy Chair said family offices connected to money laundering account for less than 1% of the total sector. The number of family offices rose to over 2,000 by end-2024 from 700 in 2021. Following the SGD 3 billion money laundering case in 2023—Singapore’s largest—tax incentives were withdrawn from six implicated family offices. Financial institutions have since tightened due diligence and closed some client accounts as part of enhanced scrutiny measures.