CARI Captures Issue 515: Cambodia aims for countrywide mobile and internet coverage by 2027

CAMBODIA
Cambodia aims for countrywide mobile and internet coverage by 2027

(11 August 2021) Cambodia aims to have countrywide mobile and internet coverage by 2027 under its 2021-2035 digital roadmap, according to telecommunications minister Chea Vandeth, as he acknowledged the poor performance of existing services. Several Cambodian telecom companies have been investing heavily in expanding their coverage and adding network capacity in recent years, though according to Smart Axiata chief executive officer Thomas Hundt, his company still awaits the approval of fund disbursements from the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications’ Universal Service Obligation Fund to proceed with more deployments. Telecom companies in Cambodia pay 2% of their gross annual revenue into the fund, which is then returned to them to invest in rural coverage.

INDONESIA
Indonesia launches new single-submission system for business licensing

(10 August 2021) Indonesian President Joko Widodo launched the country’s new business licensing system, the Risk-Based Online Single Submission System, to streamline and expedite permit approval procedures at all levels of government involved in issuing permits at the central and regional levels. The new system, which follows the previous addition of an article in the 2020 Omnibus Law on Job Creation that allows certain classes of low-risk businesses to get instant approval for their permit applications, will be able to accommodate applications for 1,702 classes of businesses. Total domestic and foreign direct investments grew by 10% year-on-year to US$30 billion in 1H21.

THAILAND 
Value of investment applications rose by 158% in the first half of 2021

(9 August 2021) Thailand received 14% more investment applications in 1H21 than it did during the same period last year, marking a 158% rise in combined investment application value to US$12 billion and accounting for 72% of total investment value pledged during the period. The electrical appliances and electronics sector saw the most interest, followed by the medical sector, petrochemicals and chemicals sector, agriculture and food processing, and biotechnology. Much of these investments were also focused on the Eastern Economic Corridor, which saw a 54% increase in investment value reaching US$3.83 billion year-on-year.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s GDP expands by 14.7% in the second quarter of 2021

(11 August 2021) Singapore’s economy grew by 14.7% year-on-year in 2Q21 when compared to the same period last year during which it first entered its COVID-19 circuit breaker. On the back of this “better than expected” performance, the Ministry of Trade and Industry has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for the year to 6-7% as it expects to continue to see a gradual recovery in the second half of the year supported by its export sectors. The recovery was similarly seen in its manufacturing sector, which grew by 17.7% on the year, with transport and precision engineering leading the way.

VIETNAM 
Vietnam aims to become ASEAN’s leading artificial intelligence hub by 2030

(11 August 2021) Vietnam has published a national strategy that aims to turn the country into a leading hub in ASEAN for the research, development, and application of artificial intelligence by 2030. According to deputy science and technology minister Bui The Duy, the plan will involve creating 50 interconnected open databases in economic sectors, as well as developing three national big data and high-performance computing centres, among other things. To this end, the government is currently developing a legal framework to support the development of the field of artificial intelligence and constructing the National Innovation Centre in Hoa Lac Hi-Tech Park to support the country’s startup ecosystem.

LAOS, VIETNAM 
Laos-Vietnam bilateral trade grew by 36.5% y-o-y in the first half of 2021

(11 August 2021) Trade in goods between Laos and Vietnam grew by 36.5% year-on-year in 1H21, reaching US$671 million. Of the sum, Laos’ imports from Vietnam grew by 19% on the year, totalling US$329 million. Vietnam is currently the third-largest investor in Laos with 414 investment projects valued at US$4.1 billion, behind only China and Thailand. These figures were announced during a meeting between Laotian deputy prime minister Dr Sonexay Siphandone and his Vietnamese counterpart Le Van Thanh, during which both sides discussed projects such as the Vientiane-Hanoi Expressway, Laos-Vietnam Railway, Nong Khang Airport, and the sale of electricity between the two countries.

CAMBODIA, MALAYSIA
Maybank becomes first international partner to Cambodian central bank project

(12 August 2021) Malaysia’s Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank) has signed on as the first international transfer partner to the National Bank of Cambodia’s blockchain initiative Bakong and has so far executed around US$3 million in transactions since it first joined the project in June 2021. Cambodia received some US$1.2 billion in remittances from international workers abroad in 2020, with Malaysia being its fourth most popular source of overseas remittance last year, accounting for 1.4% of all inbound funds. The collaboration, which aims to help lower the cost of cross-border remittance for Cambodians abroad, allows Maybank clients to send up to US$2,500 to their Bakong e-wallet accounts via Maybank’s mobile banking application.


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SOUTH KOREA
South Korea creates new ministerial post to focus on the energy sector
(9 August 2021) South Korea created a new vice-ministerial post within its Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and appointed Park Ki-young as its first ministerial appointment dedicated to its energy sector. Newly-appointed vice-minister Park said in his inaugural speech that he plans to “reconstruct the current fossil fuel-based energy supply and demand system and market structure into clear energy-focused ones” and that he would also focus on creating jobs and promoting the new energy sector. Park previously headed the energy portfolio under the ministry’s planning and coordination office.

AUSTRALIA
Australia’s technology heavyweights form alliance to grow the industry
(11 August 2021) Australia’s leading technology companies including Google, Atlassian, and Afterpay have come together to form the Technology Council of Australia, an alliance that aims to provide a unified voice to government on policy matters that impact the sector. The launch was accompanied by the publication of a research report which found that its technology industry employs 861,000 Australians and generated US$167 billion in economic output in the 2021 financial year, equivalent to 8.5% of GDP. The council aims to increase this figure to US$250 billion by 2031, with over one million employed by 2025.

CHINA  
China unveils new five-year plan to develop its regulatory environment
(11 August 2021) China published a sweeping five-year blueprint that aims to establish and enforce legislation in areas such as national security, technology and monopolies that take a “long-term view” and comprise “new and higher requirements for the construction of a government under the rule of law.” The move comes as the government moves to tighten regulations to curb unwanted behaviour and protect “key areas related to the vital interests of the people.”

CARI Captures Issue 514: UK officially becomes Dialogue Partner of ASEAN, to strengthen cooperation on COVID-19 and climate change

ASEAN, UK  
UK officially becomes Dialogue Partner of ASEAN, to strengthen cooperation on COVID-19 and climate change

(05 August 2021) The UK officially became a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN on 05 August 2021 during a virtual ceremony attended by the UK Foreign Secretary and ASEAN Foreign Ministers. The UK had submitted its application to become a Dialogue Partner in June 2020, and during this time the UK Foreign Secretary had attended two UK-ASEAN Ministerial Meetings and hosted the ASEAN Chair at the G7 Foreign & Development Ministers meeting in May 2021. Dialogue Partner status will formalize UK-ASEAN relations, including through annual Foreign and Economic Ministers meetings along with other Ministerial engagements. The enhanced partnership will allow both parties to boost trade and strengthen cooperation on issues such as COVID-19 and climate change.

ASEAN
ASEAN financial markets feeling brunt of Delta surge and low vaccination rollout

(06 August 2021) Southeast Asian financial markets are feeling the brunt of a surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 as well as a low vaccination rollout. While Asian stock markets are lagging their global peers in general, ASEAN shares in particular stand out for their underperformance. Vietnamese and Filipino benchmarks have led global declines over the past month. Sovereign bonds from Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia have all taken a hit, with local total return indexes down about 1% in dollar terms since the end of June 2020. Southeast Asian currencies have also taken a hit, with the Thai baht among the worst-performing currencies in the world after weakening almost 4% against the US dollar this quarter. Malaysia’s ringgit and the Philippines peso have slumped nearly 2% and 3% respectively against the US dollar this quarter.

INDONESIA 
Shares of Indonesian online marketplace PT Bukalapak.com surge 25% on first day of trading

(06 August 2021) Shares of Indonesian e-commerce platform PT Bukalapak.com surged 25% on its first day of trading, after having raised US$1.5 billion in Indonesia’s largest initial-public offering (IPO). Investors’ interest in the IPO reflects increased general interest in e-commerce companies operating in Southeast Asia. Bukalapak’s gross merchandise value is projected to reach US$12 billion in 2022 from the estimated US$9 billion in 2021. In Jakarta, three fourths of the 44 companies that listed on the Jakarta bourse in the past 12 months ended their first session at least 25% higher. A successful debut by Bukalapak is expected to set the tone for the upcoming IPOs for other regional tech giants.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia to no longer use daily COVID-19 cases as metric to ease curbs in states entering second phase of national recovery plan

(05 August 2021) The Malaysian government will no longer use daily COVID-19 cases as metrics for easing curbs in states which have entered the second phase of the national recovery plan. Instead, authorities will measure Covid hospitalization rates as one of the three indicators to allow states to move to the third and the final phase of the national recovery plan. The other two metrics which will be retained include measuring vaccination rates and ICU occupancy. According to Malaysia’s Finance Minister, once 40% of adults are vaccinated, the number of new cases becomes less relevant since most cases will show little to no symptoms. Under the new policy, the hospitalization rate must reach 3 cases per 100,000 of the population for states to move from the second to third phase. To get to the final stage, the hospitalization rate must reach 1.3 cases per 100,000 people.

THE PHILIPPINES 
The Philippines’ purchasing managers’ index (PMI) eases to 50.4 in July 2021

(03 August 2021) London-based global information provider IHS Markit Ltd reported that the Philippines’ purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July 2021 eased to 50.4 from 50.8 in June 2021. However, a measurement above 50.0 indicates a year-on-year expansion in manufacturing activities. IHS Markit also stated that there were fewer job losses in July 2021, being at the slowest pace since March. However, factory output and new orders declined year-on-year in July 2021, with domestic demand and production levels still impacted by the pandemic. IHS Markit noted that domestic demand in the Philippines must improve throughout the second half of 2021 to help underpin growth within the year.

THAILAND 
Thailand to expand its quasi-lockdown measures to about 40% of population

(01 August 2021) Thailand is set to expand its quasi-lockdown measures to its regions that were hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and home to about 40% of the population. The most stringent restrictions in 13 provinces, which includes Bangkok, will be extended to 31 August 2021, while these curbs will be expanded to 16 additional provinces from 03 August onwards. Thailand’s COVID-19 task force will then assess the outbreak after two weeks and may ease curbs for some regions starting on 18 August. The Thai healthcare system has been overwhelmed by the sudden surge in infections and hospitalizations as the country grapples with the more transmissible Delta variant.

SINGAPORE
Retail sales in Singapore jump 25.8% year-on-year in June 2021, attributed to low base in 2020

(05 August 2021) Singapore’s retail sales rose by 25.8% year-on-year in June 2021, with the growth attributed to the low base during the same period in 2020, when stricter COVID-19 restrictions had been put in place. June’s retail sales growth was slower than in May 2021 which measured at 79.7% (which again was attributed to a low base due to the circuit breaker measures in place during the whole of May 2020). Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales rose 19% in June, lower than the 61.7% increase measured in May. The total retail sales value in June 2021 was estimated at SGD 3.3 billion, with online retail sales making up about 15.4% of that total.


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JAPAN, CHINA
Japan’s video game shares plunge following amid fears of Chinese regulatory crackdown
(03 August 2021) On 03 August 2021, Japan’s video game shares plunged following comments made in Chinese-state media indicating that the Chinese video game industry might be the next target of Chinese regulators. Game stocks which were affected including Koei Tecmo Holdings Co. and Nexon Co. China composed 28% of Nexon’s revenues alone in the last fiscal year, with the company’s stocks finishing 6.5% lower. Nexon stocks are currently the second-worst performer on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average in 2021. Japan’s video game industry remains heavily interlinked with the Chinese market, making it vulnerable to any regulatory changes in the country.

NEW ZEALAND
Cheap mortgages push housing prices up nearly 30% as government tries to cool market
(06 August 2021) Low mortgages in New Zealand are pushing domestic house prices to record highs, with current government efforts to cool the market seemingly having little impact. Nearly 15,000 homes sold for more than US$705,100 during the last 12 months, compared with just 5,500 in 2020. The government has attempted to halt runaway prices through new taxes for property investors and putting checks on “flipping” activities. Such investments have pushed house prices up by nearly 30%. New Zealand’s central bank has warned that housing prices are above sustainable levels, and proposed tighter mortgage lending and debt-to-income restrictions.

AUSTRALIA  
Australia’s central bank stands by decision to trim purchase of government bonds
(03 August 2021) On 03 August 2021, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affirmed its decision made in July 2021 to trim its purchases of government bonds to AU$4 billion a week from September 2021 onwards from the current weekly pace of AU$5 billion. It also kept its cash rate at 0.1% for its eighth straight meeting, and stressed that interest rates will not be raised until inflation was sustainably within its 2-3% target band, a goal unlikely to be met before 2024. The RBA believed that the recent COVID-19 outbreaks in major Australian cities will only have a temporary impact on the economy.

CARI Captures Issue 513: IMF downgrades 2021 economic outlook for ASEAN-5 countries to 4.3% due to recent COVID-19 waves

ASEAN 
IMF downgrades 2021 economic outlook for ASEAN-5 countries to 4.3% due to recent COVID-19 waves

(28 July 2021) In the IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook released in July 2021, the IMF downgraded its 2021 economic projections for the ASEAN-5 countries by -0.6% to 4.3%. The ASEAN-5 countries comprise Malaysia, Thailand, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The downgrade was due to recent COVID-19 waves causing a drag on the economies of the region. The IMF also revised the ASEAN-5’s growth projections for 2022 by 0.2% to 6.3%. For overall emerging market and developing economies, the forecast for the group was revised downwards by -0.4% to 6.3% in 2021, largely because of growth markdowns for emerging Asian economies. The IMF maintained its 6% forecast for global economic growth for 2021, and upgraded its 2022 growth projections by 0.5% to 4.9%.

MALAYSIA
Malaysian government increasingly has limited fiscal space after several COVID-19 relief packages

(29 July 2021) The Malaysian economy increasingly has limited fiscal space after several COVID-19 relief packages were introduced in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A series of support initiatives – Penjana, Prihatin, Permai, Permerkasa, Permerkasa+ and Pemulih – were extended by the government between 2020 and 2021, totalling US$90 billion. The government’s relief packages rose to 23% of GDP in December 2020, exceeding that of other regional neighbours including the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea. The Malaysian parliament recently agreed to increase their self-imposed debt limit as a percentage of GDP to 60% (from the current level of 55%) until 2022.

INDONESIA 
Hyundai and LG Energy partner together to build electric vehicle battery factory in Indonesia

(29 July 2021) South Korean companies Hyundai and LG Energy signed a memorandum of understanding with the Indonesian government to establish a joint venture to manufacture electric vehicles (EV) battery cells in Indonesia. Both companies will invest a total of US$1.1 billion to build a battery cell plant in Karawang in eastern Jakarta, with both companies to hold 50% ownership. The Indonesian government, for their part, will offer incentives and rewards to support the plant. Hyundai stated they expected construction on the Indonesian plant to start in the fourth quarter of 2021, and to be completed by the first half of 2023. Mass production of EV battery cells will commence in the first half of 2024. Indonesia is one of the world’s largest producers of nickel, a key raw material in EV batteries.

INDONESIA
Despite outperforming regional peers, Indonesian sovereign bonds failing to attract foreign investors

(30 July 2021) Despite the total returns of Indonesian sovereign bonds rising to 1.6%, the highest among regional peers, they are failing to attract heavy foreign inflows. The country’s 10-year yields dropped by 28 basis points in July 2021, with Bank Indonesia buying up debt while supply has been limited. Indonesia’s debt market is set to see its first monthly outflow in four months. As well, foreigners comprised 7.6% of bids at a conventional rupiah bond auction held last week, the lowest since March 3. Foreign demand for Indonesian debt, a bellwether for emerging markets, has been falling since early 2020 as debt monetisation to fund pandemic relief efforts and concerns over the central bank’s independence eroded investor confidence.

SINGAPORE  
Singapore to start allowing quarantine-free travel in September 2021 once 80% of population is vaccinated

(26 July 2021) The Singaporean government has stated it will start to allow quarantine free travel in September 2021, marking the first time it’s set out a timeline to reopen its borders that have been mostly shut for more than a year. The country expects to have fully vaccinated 80% of its population by then, allowing authorities to ease larger restrictions, including allowing larger gatherings of fully vaccinated people. In September, Singapore is expected to start reopening borders and establishing travel corridors with other countries or regions that have infections under control. Once key inoculation rates have been reached in Singapore, fully vaccinated people may be able to travel without serving a 14-day hotel quarantine on their return. Quarantine measures may be replaced with a rigorous testing regime depending on the risk levels of the countries visited.

THAILAND, CAMBODIA, UNITED STATES 
The United States is distributing 2.5 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Thailand and Cambodia

(29 July 2021) The United States is sending a total of 2.5 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Thailand and Cambodia. This includes 1.5 million Pfizer Inc vaccine doses to Thailand, and another 1.06 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses to Cambodia through the COVAX initiative, the global vaccine procurement initiative intended to secure inoculations for low- and middle-income nations. The Biden administration has sent a total of 80 million doses to other countries thus far, and plans to send a total of at least 580 million doses abroad overall. The American government has ordered a total of 500 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine for inoculations abroad beginning in August 2021.

VIET NAM
Coffee exports from Viet Nam declining because of depleted inventories, COVID-19 outbreak, and container shortages

(29 July 2021) Coffee exports from Viet Nam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, are declining due to depleted farmer inventories, a worsening COVID-19 outbreak in Viet Nam, and container shortages. This is despite a global surge in global coffee prices fueled by frigid weather in Brazil destroying trees. This helped lift the prices of Arabica coffee by 25% in July 2021, with London prices at its strongest since 2017. Vietnamese coffee exporters have not been able to benefit from the global price rally due in part to surging shipping costs, which has discouraged importers from purchasing beans in Viet Nam. As well, there’s been growing COVID-19 cases in the five provinces of the Central Highlands, a key coffee-growing region. Shippers are worried the logistical challenges may persist through the end of 2021 when the new harvest rolls in and exports normally rise.


RCEP Monitor


JAPAN
Japan extends its state of emergency in Tokyo and expands it to four other regions
(30 July 2021) On 30 July 2021, the Japanese government extended its state of emergency in Tokyo and southern Okinawa until 31 August 2021, while also expanding it to the provinces of Saitama, Kanagawa and Osaka. Less than 30% of residents in Japan are fully vaccinated so far, with the government stating that all those who want to get vaccinated should be able to do so by October or November 2021. Japan is currently straining to contain the more transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19, with daily cases nationwide topping 10,000 for the first time on 29 July 2021. While the Japanese government has imposed a series of states of emergencies, these orders are mostly voluntary and not mandatory.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korean factory output surges by 11.9% year-on-year in June 2021
(30 July 2021) South Korea’s factory output surged by 11.9% year-on-year in June 2021, following a 14.9% cent rise in May when the country posted the fastest growth since February 2012. That extended annual growth to eight consecutive months. Data also showed that services sector output in June rose a seasonally adjusted 1.6% from a month earlier, while retail sales rose 1.4%. Industrial production rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in June from a month earlier, rebounding from a 1.0% contraction in May. A breakdown of data showed production of semiconductors rose 8.6% on a month-on-month basis, while that of cars was also up 6.4%.

AUSTRALIA  
Housing prices in state capitals across Australia soar on all-time low interest rates and lack of properties on the market
(29 July 2021) Housing prices in state capitals across Australia are seeing a surge due to all-time low interest rates and a lack of properties on the market. Six cities have seen record prices for the third quarter in a row, while Sydney, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin have seen property values rise by over 20% in the last year. Sydney saw median house prices reach a record US$1.04 million after rising by more than AU$1,200 a day over the last three months. In June 2021, official figures revealed that Australia’s economy had continued its rapid rebound, growing larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. This was due in part to a soaring demand for commodities around the world, as well as consumer and business expenditure.

(Media Release) Innovation, cross-sectoral collaborative efforts and multi-stakeholder public-private partnerships across ASEAN are imperative to the recovery of the tourism industry

(In the picture from the top row, left to right) 
H.E. Sandiaga Uno (Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy), Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid (Chairman of CARI), Jukhee Hong (Executive Director of CARI), Riad Asmat (CEO of AirAsia Malaysia), Mr William E. Heinecke (Founder and Chairman of Minor International PCL), H.E. Satvinder Singh (Deputy Secretary-General, ASEAN Economic Community), Hon. Yanty Rahman (Chair, ASEAN BAC 2021)

Kuala Lumpur, 27 July 2021 – CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy (CARI), in collaboration with its supporting partners the ASEAN Business Club, ASEAN Business Advisory Council (ASEAN-BAC) and ASEAN-BAC Malaysia, hosted a webinar with the topic ASEAN Tourism Webinar 2021: Outlook and Pathways to recovery to dive deeper on the recovery of the tourism sector in ASEAN focusing on the most viable short-term and medium-term pathways that can help the industry regain its footing in tandem with existing regional work plans.

The dialogues featured a keynote presentation by H.E. Sandiaga Uno, Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Indonesia; H.E. Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary-General of the ASEAN Economic Community; Riad Asmat, Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia Malaysia; William Heinecke, Founder and Chairman of Minor International PCL and the Honourable Yanty Rahman, the ASEAN Business Advisory Council Chair 2021. Moderated by Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, the Chairman of CARI ASEAN, speakers concurred that innovation and collaboration are needed to revive ASEAN’s tourism industry.

(In picture) Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, Chairman of CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy

1. Intelligent within-border risk management and mutually agreed standards will pave way for a regional recovery


“Achieving economic recovery, particularly in the tourism sector, in the covid world is like climbing up a greasy pole. No sooner have you moved up than you slip back. Countries that have been trying to reopen the tourism sector are suffering setbacks from the resurgence or new waves of the virus. This is even before, like in Asean, agreements have been reached on what should be the necessary content of mutually accepted travel wallets,” said Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid. 

He said that with the virus likely to become endemic, apart from intelligent risk management within borders, concurrently mutually agreed standards have to be agreed upon if the tourism industry and other forms of travel are not to remain frozen. Such travel bubbles can start between or among tourist destinations in the region and the recovery really has to get going as the virus is not going away any time soon.

(In picture) H.E. Sandiaga Uno, Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Indonesia

2. Innovation, adaptation and collaboration: Indonesia’s three-pronged approach to drive the recovery of the tourism industry


Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy (MoTCE) of Indonesia, H.E. Sandiaga Uno informs the audience that his ministry is implementing three main pillars for tourism recovery that will focus on innovation, adaptation, and collaboration. 

“With innovation, there will be new solutions and alternatives using technology assistance. Adaptation means the implementation of CHSE (Cleanliness, Health, Safety & Environmental sustainability) in the tourism industry to guarantee the tourist’s safety. And Penta helix collaboration is crucial to make sure relevant stakeholders are taking their part in the tourism recovery program,” said minister Sandiaga Uno.

“Indonesia is preparing the Bali Travel Buble in anticipation of Indonesia taking over the G20 chairmanship in 2021. Bali’s tourism industry has suffered four quarters of negative growth and we aim to achieve 80% of full vaccination rate on the Island and having less than 100 daily cases before the Island is open to visitors,” said the minister. 

(In picture from left) Mr. William E. Heinecke (Founder and Chairman of Minor International PCL),
H.E. Satvinder Singh (Deputy Secretary-General, ASEAN Economic Community)

3. Innovation and regional collaboration are key to rebuild the hospitality and tourism industries


“Navigating this pandemic has been like sailing into a hurricane, never knowing if or when the winds will die down. At Minor, we are no longer trying to put things back to where they were. Instead, we are trying to build, create and imagine the new ways of business beyond COVID,” said Heinecke. 

With Thailand launching Phuket as a sandbox for a quarantine-free tourist destination to vaccinated Thai and foreign travellers from July onwards and the rebound of tourism in Europe and China, William Heinecke, Founder and Chairman of Minor International PCL believe that the worst for the tourism industry may soon be over. However, the speed of vaccination will be a critical factor in how soon ASEAN regional travel can thrive again.

Concurring with the views of the other speakers, HE Satvinder Singh said that the pandemic has profoundly changed the landscape of the ASEAN tourism sector, and at the same time, created opportunities for innovative solutions to circumvent the challenges. 

“ASEAN tourism sector is firmly on the right direction towards a more sustainable and inclusive recovery. Collaborative efforts across countries and sectors as well as stronger multi-stakeholder partnerships are key for the successful recovery journey of ASEAN,” he said.

(In picture) Hon. Yanty Rahman, Chair of ASEAN Business Advisory Council 2021

4. Public and private sectors to join hands in formulating a recovery roadmap and build traveller’s confidence with end-to-end healthcare protocols


The Honourable Yanty Rahman remarked that the COVID -19 impact differs across industry sectors but has hit the tourism sector the hardest. Many enterprises particularly the MSMEs that depend on tourism have gone out of business or are currently hanging by a thread. 

“Despite the challenges of the transmission of emerging and more transmissible delta virus surge, it is crucial that the public and private sectors to work together “Sama-Sama” to formulate a recovery roadmap for the travel and tourism and build the traveller confidence by ensuring end-to-end compliance with healthcare protocols set by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in support of the gradual revival of travel in the region so we could recover stronger together,” she said.

(In picture) Mr. Riad Asmat, Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia Malaysia

5. Full recovery in travel demand possible by the end of 2022 with aggressive vaccination


Riad Asmat commented that with the tourism industry contributing over 15% of GDP in Malaysia alone, vaccines are key for protection and will play a strong role in supporting tourism and the economy to get back on its feet. ASEAN governments have been working hard on that and continuous collaborative policymaking to seize opportunities at the right time will maximise the potential of the region in the post-Covid world, not just for tourism but all other aspects including digital.

“We foresee a gradual travel and tourism recovery by the end of 2021 and through 2022 thanks to the accelerated vaccine rollout across our key markets in ASEAN alongside cheaper or faster testing and therapeutics which are not far off. Travel demand will rebound. By the end of next year we expect to be back to pre-Covid levels – and some, due to huge pent up demand for travel,” said Riad.

(In picture) Jukhee Hong, Executive Director of CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy

6. Finalise the ASEAN Travel Corridor Arrangement Framework to boost intra-ASEAN travel


Jukhee Hong, executive director of CARI,  who hosted the webinar pointed out that the tourism industry contributed to 14.3% of the region’s GDP and 13.7% of total employment in the region. In 2020, however, international tourist arrivals plummeted 80.5% and suffered the loss of 75.8% tourism receipts.

Intra-ASEAN travel that made up 36% of tourism arrivals in ASEAN before the pandemic with over 51 million visitor arrivals in 2019 might be the first tourism segment to be revived once herd immunity is achieved in ASEAN.

“The recent spikes in COVID-19 cases in ASEAN have delayed the reopening and recovery of the tourism industry. Notwithstanding that, the development of the ASEAN Travel Corridor Arrangement Framework should be concluded as soon as possible to facilitate essential business travels among ASEAN as ASEAN ramps up vaccination efforts,” she said.

 


About CARI
CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy (CARI) is an independent, transnational research institute dedicated solely to the advancement and acceleration of ASEAN integration. 

For more information, kindly contact:
Jukhee Hong, Executive Director
jukhee@cariasean.org

(Media Release) Pathway to Green Recovery in ASEAN: Business councils express strong support for a sustainable and green recovery in ASEAN post-COVID-19 pandemic 

(In picture top row, from left) 

Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid (Chairman, CARI), Hon. Yanty Rahman (ASEAN-BAC Chair 2021), Hajah Farida Dato Seri Paduka Haji Talib (Managing Director and CEO, Brunei LNG), Jukhee Hong (Executive Director, CARI), Mr. Gil Gonzales (Executive Director, ASEAN-BAC), along with the speakers and participants from Sessions 1 and 2 of the Pathway to Green Recovery in ASEAN Dialogue Sessions.

Kuala Lumpur, 23 July 2021 – CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy (CARI), in collaboration with its supporting partners ASEAN Business Advisory Council (ASEAN-BAC) and ASEAN-BAC Malaysia, hosted two “Pathway to Green Recovery for ASEAN Dialogues” to discuss and gather recommendations, perspectives and priorities towards Greening ASEAN from ASEAN private sector as well as Foreign Business Associations in the ASEAN region and sector champions. 

The dialogues featured a Special Address by Hajah Farida Dato Seri Paduka Haji Talib, the Managing Director and CEO of Brunei LNG, the Honourable Yanty Rahman, the Chair of ASEAN Business Advisory Council 2021, Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, the Chairman of CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy and ASEAN-BAC Malaysia, as well as a presentation by Jukhee Hong, Executive Director of CARI on the “Pathway to Green Recovery for ASEAN” at both the sessions.

CARI expands its advocacy work on green and sustainable recovery in ASEAN


Moderated by Jukhee Hong, both dialogues have been organised as a follow-up of the four CARI Policy Briefs released early 2021 on recommendations of climate aligned strategies relating to areas of (i) stimulus spending, (ii) taxation, and national budgets (iii) overseas investment, and (iv) the future of work social justice and equality. Insights generated from both the dialogues will be captured in a new report that will be used to further support the policy recommendations already identified in the original four (4) reports and for socialisation at the ASEAN meetings.

The dialogues were attended by representatives from nine ASEAN member countries, as well as senior business leaders from ASEAN-BAC Joint Business Councils from the EU, US, UK, Russia, Japan, India, and ASEAN Tourism Association (ASEANTA).

(In picture) Hon. Yanty Rahman, Chair of ASEAN Business Advisory Council 2021

ASEAN needs to consolidate climate actions in its economic recovery


The Honorable Yanty Rahman pointed out that ASEAN and the world are relentlessly pushing for vaccination drives amidst the new COVID-19 infection surge and pushing back many economic recovery milestones behind schedule. However, the recovery from this pandemic presents a defining opportunity for ASEAN to come together to push for the work under the three pillars of the ASEAN Community.

She said that “It has become very clear that no long term economic recovery can be envisioned, much less sustained, unless we address the environmental crisis and consolidate climate actions in the heart of our recovery. The sustainability element is very much embedded in Brunei’s ASEAN chairmanship Priority Economic Deliverables. The aim is to advance inclusive sustainable economic growth and once such deliverable is the Framework on ASEAN Circular Economy.”

(In picture) Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, Chairman of CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy

Regulations and legislature-led approach are effective pathways to mobilise the private sector in greening ASEAN


Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid proposed that ASEAN governments should step up regulations of businesses to tackle and to drive towards green investment and regional carbon pricing. One possible way to is set up an ASEAN Alliance of Legislators to push this agenda forward. There is also a need to highlight the benefits of the Environmental, Social & Governance and Sustainable Development Goals aspects in businesses. The public and the private sector could join hands in running media campaigns to raise awareness towards the green agenda. 

Every country in ASEAN has made some kind of programme with varying degrees of preparedness. The Singapore Green plan stands out to be the most comprehensive and ASEAN member states could use it as a baseline model for the region. ASEAN should also look at potential border issues that may arise due to cross-border carbon tax to ensure that there is no race-to-the-bottom.”

(In picture) Jukhee Hong, Executive Director of CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy

SMEs need to be green-ready and ASEAN Community needs to pursue cross-pillar and cross-sectoral collaboration to advance climate aligned agenda


“The survival of businesses is the top priority for SMEs in the current raging pandemic. Notwithstanding that, green compliance will eventually impact SMEs in the supply chains of larger businesses and financial institutions will continue to transition to be more climate aligned and therefore preparing the SMEs to be green-ready is critically important to future proof their businesses given the opportunity of economic reset once the pandemic has stabilized,’ said Jukhee Hong.

She also pointed out that ASEAN Member states are parties to the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change and the Paris Climate Agreement and considerable work has been carried out by ASEAN ministerial meeting on the Environment and the respective senior officials in setting climate mitigation goals at the local, national, regional levels under the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community pillar. But given the critical role that the economic sector plays in carbon emissions and climate mitigation with key fiscal policy stakeholders coming from the economic sector, cross-pillar and sectoral collaboration should be pursued.

(In picture) Hajah Farida Dato Seri Paduka Haji Talib, Managing Director and CEO of Brunei LNG

Energy transitioning is key to drive low carbon economy in ASEAN


Puan Hajah Farida highlighted that the global population is projected to grow by a third in the next thirty years, driving the same proportion of energy demand. However, in line with the commitment to the Paris Agreement, parties need to halve the CO2 emissions by 2030. 

“As we move towards a low carbon resilient world, being the cleanest fossil fuel, natural gas is set to take over coal as the second-largest energy source. In the next 20 years, Asia is projected to absorb over 70% of the world’s LNG demand and with rising pressure to tackle climate change, LNG will become a key player. Across the oil and gas industry, we are looking at avoiding, reducing, compensating their emissions as a result of our operations and protecting the environment”.

 


About CARI
CARI ASEAN Research and Advocacy (CARI) is an independent, transnational research institute dedicated solely to the advancement and acceleration of ASEAN integration. 

For more information, kindly contact:
Jukhee Hong, Executive Director
jukhee@cariasean.org

CARI Captures Issue 512: ASEAN countries experienced an increase in mobile speed between June 2020 and June 2021; except Myanmar

ASEAN 
ASEAN countries experienced an increase in mobile speed between June 2020 and June 2021; except Myanmar

(15 July 2021) Singapore has increased its mobile internet speed from 56.95 Mbps (June 2020) to 86.96 Mbps (June 2021) in average download speed to maintain its top place in the region according to the Ookla’s Speedtest Global Index for June 2021. Myanmar was the only country experiencing a drop in internet speed, while Malaysia ranked the lowest in speed increase at a mere increase of 1.71 Mbps download speed between June 2020 and June 2021. During Q2 2021, Singtel was the fastest mobile provider in Singapore, achieving a Speed Score of 83.83. In Malaysia, Digi edged out Maxis as the fastest mobile provider, earning a Speed Score of 30.20 to Maxis’ 29.92. Telkomsel was the fastest major mobile provider in Indonesia, earning a Speed Score of 28.02. In Vietnam, Viettel once again claimed the top spot as Vietnam’s fastest mobile, earning a mobile Speed Score of 44.16. The Speedtest Global Index compares internet speed data from around the world monthly. Data for the Index comes from the hundreds of millions of tests taken by real people using Speedtest every month.

CAMBODIA
China tops list of investors in Cambodia

(20 July 2021) China was ranked first in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows to Cambodia in the first half of this year at about US$2 billion according to Wang Wentian, Chinese ambassador to Cambodia. Major projects invested by Chinese companies include the Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway, a coal-fired power station in Preah Sihanouk province and the Siem Reap-Angkor International Airport. According to the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC), China accounted for 69% of total FDI stock. Bilateral trade between Cambodia and China surged 1.4% last year over 2019, to US$9.56 billion, according to the ambassador. Cambodia and China plan to boost bilateral trade to US$10 billion by 2023.

MALAYSIA 
Shell launches sale of stakes in Malaysian oil and gas fields

(22 July 2021) Royal Dutch Shell launched the sale of its stakes in oil and gas fields it does not operate off the coast of Malaysia, according to a document seen by Reuters. The Anglo-Dutch company announced in March that it was considering selling its stakes in the Baram Delta EOR and the SK307 production-sharing contracts which are operated by Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd, a unit of state energy firm Petronas. The sale process for the two stakes, launched this month, is being run by investment bank J.P. Morgan, according to the sales document. The sale is part of Shell’s strategy to focus its oil and gas production in nine hubs as it gradually reduces output and grows investments in low-carbon energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

SINGAPORE
One of the world’s largest inland floating solar PV systems opens in Singapore

(14 July 2021) A 60 megawatt-peak (MWp) floating solar photovoltaic (PV) system on Tengeh Reservoir was officially opened on 14 July with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong hailing the project as “one big step forward towards environmental sustainability”. Spanning 45 hectares, the equivalent of about 45 football fields, the Sembcorp Tengeh Floating Solar Farm contains 122,000 solar panels, which are durable enough to last 25 years. It is also one of the world’s largest inland floating solar PV systems, said national water agency PUB and Sembcorp Industries in a joint press release. Electricity generated from the solar farm will be sufficient to power Singapore’s five local water treatment plants, offsetting about 7% of PUB’s annual energy needs, said Sembcorp and PUB. Other floating solar PV projects in the pipeline include ones at Lower Seletar Reservoir and Bedok Reservoir. They are scheduled to be completed this year.

THAILAND  
Toyota halts factories in Thailand as COVID hits supply chain

(22 July 2021) Japanese auto group Toyota Motor has halted operations at its three factories in Thailand as the country’s delta-variant COVID epidemic disrupts the supply of key automobile parts. The closures underline how the pandemic is still putting the automobile supply chain under strain. The stoppage started on 21 July and will last at least until 28 July. The factories’ annual production capacity is 760,000 units, but in 2020, 440,000 automobiles were manufactured. Thailand is the third-biggest overseas production hub for Toyota, after China and the U.S. This is the second time Toyota’s production in Thailand has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The factories closed during Thailand’s first wave in March 2020.

THE PHILIPPINES  
The Philippines to bar travel from Malaysia, Thailand to curb Delta’s spread

(23 July 2021) The Philippines will ban travellers coming from Malaysia and Thailand, as well as tighten restrictions in the Manila area, in a bid to prevent the spread of the contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. To try and prevent further domestic transmission of the Delta variant, President Rodrigo Duterte has placed the capital region, an urban sprawl of 16 cities that is home to more than 13 million people, and four provinces under stricter coronavirus curbs until the end of July. With more than 1.53 million infections and nearly 27,000 deaths, the Philippines has the second-highest number of coronavirus cases and casualties in South-East Asia, next to Indonesia.

VIETNAM
Standard Chartered revises growth forecast for Vietnam down

(22 July 2021) Standard Chartered has lowered its growth forecast for Vietnam for 2021 from 6.7% to 6.5%. The bank maintains its 7.3% growth forecast for 2022 and continues to expect a post-Covid-19 economic acceleration. “We believe Vietnam is moving towards its goal of becoming a regional supply-chain hub, a modern industrial economy and a high-income country in the future,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered. Standard Chartered’s economists anticipate domestically-oriented sectors such as retail are likely to be the hardest hit if the current Covid-19 wave persists. The focus now is on whether the impact on the industrial sector will be temporary or more long-lasting. While the global pandemic has weighed on Vietnam’s economy via reduced tourism, supply-chain disruptions and weaker overseas demand, external indicators are showing a strong recovery. Exports in the first half of the year rose 28.4% year-on-year and imports rose 36.1%.


RCEP Monitor


CHINA
China’s Trade Data for H1 2021 Shows Stronger Than Expected Results
(19 July 2021) China’s latest trade data brought the first half of the year to a close with stronger than expected results, as the country’s economic performance continued to outpace projections. In June, China’s exports increased by 32.2% year-on-year, up from 27.9% in May. Imports, meanwhile, grew by 36.7%, down from 51.1% the month before. The ASEAN bloc, however, remains China’s largest trade partner. Through the first half of the year, exports and imports both rose by 27.8%, leading to an identical 27.8% total trade increase. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 27.5%, and trade with RCEP members increased by 22.7%.

SOUTH KOREA
Despite the New Southern Policy drive, South Korea lags behind China, Taiwan in ASEAN cooperation
(21 July 2021) Despite state-driven efforts to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian nations, South Korea‘s trade and investment with the region still lag behind China and Taiwan, according to the Federation of Korean Industries 21 July 2021. The government’s drive to widen the nation’s diplomatic horizons, its share in the ASEAN countries’ overseas imports has decreased to 6.9% in 2020 from 7.7% in 2017, data showed. This was largely led by last year’s 18.2% decline in the nation’s outbound shipments to Indonesia, which boasts the largest population in Southeast Asia. With a slowdown in exports to Southeast Asia, trade volume between Seoul and the ASEAN countries was estimated at US$164 billion last year, which fell short of the US$200 billion goal set by the government four years ago, the research agency said. Meanwhile, the number of people traveling between them increased more than 10% every year from 2010 to exceed 12 million in 2019, but it failed to reach the government’s target of 15 million by the end of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it added.

NEW ZEALAND 
New Zealand suspends quarantine-free travel with Australia
(23 July 2021) New Zealand will pause its quarantine-free travel arrangement with Australia for at least eight weeks starting the night of 23 July, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, as Australia fights an outbreak of the highly infectious Delta virus variant. The travel bubble had been launched as test-free as well as quarantine free, but New Zealand introduced a testing requirement that made it more costly for Australians to visit this month. The New Zealand government said for the next week there will be return flights for New Zealanders from all Australian states and territories that will require proof of a negative pre-departure test. Passengers arriving from Sydney will be required to spend two weeks in government-managed quarantine.

CARI Captures Issue 511: Goldman Sachs slashes 2021 growth projections for major ASEAN economies due to new COVID-19 waves

ASEAN 
Goldman Sachs slashes 2021 growth projections for major ASEAN economies due to new COVID-19 waves

(15 July 2021) Goldman Sachs has cut its 2021 growth projections for major ASEAN economies due to a rapid climb in COVID-19 infections across the region. Goldman Sachs slashed its growth forecasts for Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines by more than 100 basis points, while Singapore and Thailand saw smaller cuts. The rapid climb in COVID-1 infections comes as vaccination rollouts in many ASEAN countries continue to stall, with the exception of Singapore. Goldman Sachs predicts that Malaysia will begin to ease restrictions in the fourth quarter in 2021, while other countries will do so only in the first half of 2022. Export-orientated economies such as Malaysia and Singapore will also benefit from a rebound in global growth, while Malaysia will also benefit from higher commodity prices.

INDONESIA 
Indonesian investors banking on economic rebound once COVID-19 infection numbers reaches inflection point

(15 July 2021) Indonesian investors are banking on Indonesian bonds, its currency and stocks rebounding once an inflection point in COVID-19 cases is reached. Comparisons have been made with India, where Indian assets were all beaten down earlier this year due to a spike in cases, but bounced back once cases in India had reached their peak. Currently in Indonesia, 10-year bond yields climbed 17 basis points in June 2021, while the Jakarta Composite Index presently has fallen almost 3% from a high in June. Macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia remain healthy, with the Indonesian Finance Minister stressing that the government will return Indonesia back to its fiscal rule of a 3% deficit-to-GDP cap by 2023, helping bolster bond-market sentiment. Meanwhile, the rupiah should be helped by a recent announcement by the country’s central bank that it was effectively done with easing cycles.

MALAYSIA
Malaysian government expected to downgrades growth forecast for 2021 to around 4%

(12 July 2021) Malaysia’s Finance Minister stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the government is expected to downgrade its GDP growth forecasts for 2021 to around 4%, due to the COVID-19-related restrictions. The government had already stated that it would revise the current outlook of 6%-7.5% growth starting in August 2021. Much of the country has been under lockdown measures since June 1, 2021, costing the economy 1 billion ringgit ($239 million) a day. The government will also propose raising the debt ceiling to 65% from 60% currently, and the country’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 6.5%-7% of GDP, up from the projected 6%.

THE PHILIPPINES  
Peso slides to lowest level in over a year after Fitch Ratings revises its outlook on the Philippines to negative

(13 July 2021) The Philippines peso declined by as much as 0.4% to 50.30 per dollar, its weakest since June 2020, after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the Philippines from stable to negative. The Philippines Stock Exchange likewise declined by 1.2%, while the spread on Philippines’ 2032 dollar bond over Treasuries rose about five basis points to 75.1 basis points. Fitch Ratings believed there are challenges associated with unwinding the significant policy responses to the health crisis, and ultimately restoring sound public finances following the end of the pandemic. The Philippines central bank doesn’t see GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2022.

THAILAND  
Three more Thai islands open to vaccinated foreign tourists on 15 July despite nationwide surge in cases

(15 July 2021) Thailand opened three more islands to foreign vaccinated tourists on 15 July despite a nationwide surge in cases. The islands included Samui, Tao and Phangan, and were opened as part of the country’s so-called ‘sandbox scheme’, which permitted foreign vaccinated tourists to visit Phuket Island starting on 1 July without having to quarantine. Under this new expansion, tourists must stay at an approved hotel on Samui for a week, and can only leave their accommodation on day four. Phuket has already received 5,000 tourists since its reopening, with only 10 tourists being tested positive for COVID-19. Tourism makes up some one-fifth of Thailand’s national income, and is currently being battered by the global pandemic.

CAMBODIA, VIET NAM
Cambodia closes down all cross-border travel with Viet Nam for one month to curb COVID-19 cases

(15 July 2021) Cambodia has closed down all cross-border travel with Viet Nam for one month in order to help curb COVID-19 cases. The suspension of travel will take effect starting from 18 July, with exceptions made for diplomats, civil servants, some students and patients in need of medical treatment. The border closures come amidst reports of Vietnamese nations continuing to travel back and forth across the Cambodian-Vietnamese border despite both countries facing their largest outbreaks to date. Many Cambodian border towns with Viet Nam hosts casinos serving Vietnamese nationals unable to enter casinos in their own country. The country’s only integrated casino resort, NagaWorld in Phnom Penh, has been closed since March 2021 after 11 staff tested positive to COVID-19 in that month.

SINGAPORE
Singapore non-oil domestic exports rise by 15.9% in June 2021 at fastest pace since March 2020

(16 July 2021) Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 15.9% in June 2021, its fastest pace since March 2020. The country’s NODX had grown by a revised 8.6% in May 2021. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, Singapore’s NODX increased by 6% in June, after a 0.2% decline in May. This growth in exports was fueled by global demand for semiconductor-related products and an increase in non-electronic shipments such as specialised machinery and petrochemicals. Exports to the majority of Singapore’s top markets rose, with the exception of the United States, Japan, and Malaysia. Singapore’s overall growth prospects will depend on the COVID-19 situation in the country, including from the recent discovery of new clusters.


RCEP Monitor


CHINA
China’s GDP growth slowed down to 7.9% in the April-to-June quarter
(15 July 2021) According to statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP growth slowed down to 7.9% in the April-to-June quarter, after plateauing at 18.3% in the previous three months. This signalled a halt to China’s V-shaped recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. This swift deceleration was underlined by a 0.5% cut to banks’ reserve requirements effective 15 July. Only 26% of Chinese companies surveyed by IHS Markit in June 2021 predicted a rise in business activity over the next year, down slightly from 28% in February. China’s second-quarter growth was fueled by exports as its trading partners eased lockdowns and vaccination rollouts accelerated.

NEW ZEALAND, SINGAPORE
New Zealand and Singapore sign arrangement regarding cooperation on low-carbon hydrogen energy
(15 July 2021) On 15 July, New Zealand and Singapore signed an arrangement regarding cooperation on low-carbon hydrogen energy. The arrangement will foster closer bilateral cooperation including through facilitating opportunities to chart standards and certifications and scale up both countries’ respective hydrogen economies, establish supply chains for low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives, conduct joint research, development and deployment studies, and strengthen networks and partnerships. The arrangement will allow both countries to share knowledge about hydrogen, including through its use and deployment through small demonstration projects up to large scale construction.

AUSTRALIA 
Victoria state enters snap lockdown after two more COVID-19 cases discovered
(15 July 2021) On 15 July, the state of Victoria began a snap lockdown after two more COVID-19 cases were discovered, bringing the total number of cases in the state to 18. This is the fifth lockdown Victoria state has undergone since the pandemic began in 2020, and will last until 20 July. These new outbreaks in Victoria follows an outbreak in neighboring New South Wales, which is currently under a five-week lockdown which will last until the end of July 2021. Under the new lockdown, residents will be forced to stay home except for food shopping, essential work, exercise and getting vaccinated. At this point, only 12% of Australia’s adult population is fully vaccinated.

CARI Captures Issue 510: JCER/ Nikkei Survey: The slowdown of Asian economies predicted, with COVID surge putting the brakes on Thai and Malaysia growth

ASEAN 
JCER/ Nikkei Survey: The slowdown of Asian economies predicted, with COVID surge putting the brakes on Thai and Malaysia growth

(5 July 2021) Economists are predicting a slowdown in the growth of Asian economies, as a surge in COVID-19 cases and contagious variants hinder recovery, according to a survey of quarterly consensus from economists and analysts conducted by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) and Nikkei in June. Thailand’s economy is expected to show a meek 1.9% recovery in 2021; the lowest rate among major countries in Southeast Asia. Malaysia had the sharpest downgrade in the growth forecast among the five ASEAN nations surveyed, suffering a 1.2% point downward revision to its growth rate forecast to 4.1%. Many economists agree that the spread of COVID and the contagious delta variant remain the highest risk factor for Asian countries. Economists are also watching out for the impacts of U.S. inflation and changes in monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signalled that it expects to make its first post-pandemic interest rate hike in 2023. Higher interest rates in the U.S. tend to cause capital outflows from Asian emerging markets and prompt local currencies to depreciate.

INDONESIA 
Citi: Global decarbonisation may weaken Indonesia’s coal exports but boost base metals

(7 July 2021) Global decarbonisation will likely weaken Indonesia’s coal exports in the medium to long-term, but this could be mitigated by a pickup in exports of base metals, Citi economists said in a July 6 note. Indonesia is estimated to have the world’s largest share of nickel reserves at around 12% and has the world’s second-largest copper mine. The decarbonisation trend is expected to have a limited fiscal impact on Indonesia, as the bulk of the government’s natural resource revenues come not from coal, but oil and gas. Non-oil mining revenues averaged just 0.2% of the gross domestic product in the past five years, compared to 0.6% for direct oil and gas revenues.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia needs stronger future-proofing to attract EU and UK investments, says HSBC Malaysia CEO

(5 July 2021) Malaysia is primed to be a major beneficiary of European and UK investments, but greater adaption and adoption of trade, sustainability, technology and digital trends and reform are required to convert this potential into reality, HSBC Bank Malaysia chief executive officer Stuart Milne said. Milne said Malaysia has received significant foreign direct investments (FDIs) and is uniquely positioned to capture increasing opportunities arising from supply chains that are moving to the ASEAN region. But the region is not without its challenges, he added. “To offset these headwinds, greater policy reform to encourage greater trade flows, technological improvements to increase manufacturing productivity, and digital and sustainability adoption is needed,” he said.

THAILAND 
AirAsia to take over Gojek’s business in Thailand

(7 July 2021) AirAsia is to acquire Indonesian unicorn Gojek’s business in Thailand as the low-cost Malaysia airline steps up its digital ambitions. Gojek and AirAsia announced an all-share deal on 7 July that will see the Indonesian tech group take a 4.76% stake in AirAsia’s own “super-app” business, in newly issued shares, in exchange for its Thai business. AirAsia’s super-app business has been valued at around US$1 billion, while Gojek’s Thai business has been valued at a total of US$50 million, AirAsia said in a stock exchange filing.

THE PHILIPPINES  
The Philippines need to tighten dirty money rules: Inquirer

(5 July 2021) The Philippines is back in the so-called “grey list” of countries under increased international monitoring, because of insufficient policies and laws on, and action against, money laundering and terrorist financing. The Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) said the country must address 18 action points to be removed from the list. The Philippines would have to submit progress reports to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) thrice a year, the first to be given this September. The AMLC stressed that the relevant government and law enforcement agencies’ sustained pledge to implement the 18 action plans within the prescribed timelines would be essential to the country’s removal from the list. “The Philippines will be delisted from the ‘grey list’ upon successful completion of all action plans-hopefully on or before January 2023,” said Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Benjamin Diokno.

SINGAPORE
Crypto groups shelter in Singapore as global regulators crackdown

(8 July 2021) Global cryptocurrency groups are expanding their presence in Singapore, drawn by the city-state’s friendly regulatory environment as other markets crackdown on the industry. The city has yet to issue licences to cryptocurrency companies, but it has granted exemptions to some of the industry’s biggest players, allowing them to serve local retail and institutional investors. Binance has been granted a licence exemption along with OSL, a Hong Kong-based exchange. Vitalik Buterin, the founder of cryptocurrency Ether, is also based in Singapore. While growth in the crypto industry has been supercharged this year, regulators in markets including the U.S., U.K., and China have clamped down on the sector. Hong Kong, a rival Asian financial centre, is set to limit crypto trading to accredited or institutional investors under a new law.

VIETNAM
Vietnam to solve bottlenecks to develop its auto industry

(8 July 2021) Limited market capacity and price differences between domestically produced and imported cars are the two biggest bottlenecks for the local auto industry, according to the latest report from the Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT). According to the ministry, the local auto market was one-third of the size of Thailand’s and one-quarter of Indonesia’s. It added that the local auto industry is scattered with many different assemblers and models. This has made it difficult for firms that manufacture, assemble, and produce components and spare parts to invest and develop in means of mass production. The cost of producing new cars in Vietnam is also 10% to 20% higher than in other countries in the region. To overcome these issues, the MoIT is coordinating with relevant ministries, branches, and agencies to create more opportunities in the local market for Vietnamese made auto products. This includes developing automobile infrastructure, such as roads and motorways, in big cities like Hanoi and HCM City.


RCEP Monitor


AUSTRALIA
Australia to halve overseas arrivals to 3,000 per week; hotel quarantines under strain
(2 July 2021) Australia will halve the number of arrivals from overseas as its coronavirus hotel quarantine system creaks under pressure from outbreaks of the highly transmissible delta variant, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on 2 July. Morrison said Australia will now only accept about 3,000 travellers from overseas per week. The new restrictions on travel come as Australia fights outbreaks of the delta variant simultaneously in three state capital cities.

CHINA
China signals easier monetary policy, reviving worries about weaker growth
(8 July 2021) China’s top-level executive body said late Wednesday the central bank would stimulate the economy with cuts to the amount of funds banks need to hold in reserve. “We think this policy signal suggests the economy likely slowed in June,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist, Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note. In the last two months, consumer spending, which China is trying to rely more on for growth, grew slower than expected and authorities have kept up their efforts to support smaller, privately owned businesses, which generate a significant share of jobs. China’s signal of easier monetary policy comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve considers plans to tighten policy and gradually move away from stimulus measures made in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

SOUTH KOREA 
South Korea raises Seoul’s COVID-19 restrictions to the top level, new cases set second straight national record
(9 July 2021) South Korea will raise anti-coronavirus restrictions to the highest level in Seoul and some neighbouring regions for two weeks from 12 July, Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said on 9 July, after new COVID-19 cases climbed to a daily record for the second day running. The ‘Level 4’ restrictions are the toughest of all distancing measures. The country reported 1,316 new COVID-19 cases as of midnight of 8 July, up from the previous record of 1,275 a day on 7 July. Health officials warned the numbers may nearly double by the end of July. South Korea has only given both shots in the dual vaccination process to just over 10% of its 52 million population, while 30% have received at least one dose, the majority of whom are aged over 60. The country aims to reach herd immunity before November by inoculating 70% of the public with at least one shot by September.

CARI Captures Issue 509: Mergers and acquisitions in Southeast Asia hits US$19 billion in first half of 2021, fueled by tech sector

ASEAN 
Mergers and acquisitions in Southeast Asia hits US$19 billion in first half of 2021, fueled by tech sector

(30 June 2021) Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in Southeast Asia hit US$19 billion in the first half of 2021, fueled primarily by the region’s booming tech sector. M&As rose by 114% compared to 2020, and it is projected to reach US$75 billion by the end of 2021, well above the $17 billion recorded in 2020 and $23 billion in 2019. One of the biggest deals involved Indonesian tech giants Gojek and Tokopedia merging together to create a platform worth more than US$18 billion. Digital banking and lending services were the main sectors fueling M&As in the first half of 2021. This included the acquisition by Sea, the gaming and ecommerce platform, of Indonesia’s Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi in January 2021.

ASEAN 
Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia had combined outflows of US$2.7 billion from their equities in April-June period of 2021

(02 July 2021) Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia had combined outflows of US$2.7 billion from their equities in the April-June period of 2021. This was the largest exodus from their equities since the quarter ending September 2020. This exodus was fueled by investor fears about the slow vaccine rollout in many Southeast Asian countries. Many of these countries are also dealing with new variants of COVID-19. Indonesia was the only major market in Southeast Asia where foreigners were net buyers of its equities, with US$345 million net inflow in the second quarter. Investors are instead shifting their money to regional bonds due to attractive yields. Vaccine rollouts in ASEAN are expected to be extensive in the second half of 2021, which will allow gradual reopenings, therefore improving economic growth.

VIETNAM
Viet Nam’s GDP grows by 6.61% on the year in April-June period

(29 June 2021) Viet Nam’s GDP grew by 6.61% on the year in the April-June period of 2021, fueled by strong exports of smartphones and other products. The economy expanded by 5.64% in the first half of 2021, making a jump from 1.82% in the same period in 2020. Exports to the United States rose by 42.6% in the first half of 2021, while overall exports rose by 28.4% to reach US$157.63 billion. The Delta variant of COVID-19 slowed operations since the beginning of April 2021 at some factories in the northern provinces of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh, which play central roles in supply chains. While Viet Nam has has been relatively successful in containing COVID-19, cases are currently rising in areas such as Ho Chi Minh City. As well, Viet Nam’s sluggish vaccine rollout has created uncertainty in the economy.

INDONESIA 
Government to introduce tighter COVID-19-related restrictions in Java and Bali to arrest new wave

(01 July 2021) The Indonesian government will introduce tighter restrictions in Java and Bali in order to arrest a devastating second wave of COVID-19. The new restrictions will begin from 03 July 2021 to 20 July 2021. The new Java-Bali restrictions will apply to a total of 122 cities and regencies — including the capital, Jakarta — with the target of reducing the daily new cases to below 10,000. The new restrictions will stipulate working from home, the closure of shopping malls, schools and places of worship, and banning dining-in at restaurants. The government will also provide social assistance to the needy during this period of new restrictions in order to protect the middle to lower classes. The government has forecasted growth of 4.5% to 5.3% for the year of 2021.

SINGAPORE  
Singapore’s housing market slows in April-June 2021 quarter, after return of lockdown measures eased price growth

(02 July 2021) Private property values in the April-June 2021 quarter increased by 0.9% from the previous quarter, when they had risen by 3.3%. This is the first time price growth slowed in five quarters. This slowdown in price growth was driven largely by stricter social-distancing measures imposed temporarily in May 2021 to curb a Covid-19 outbreak, and it is believed demand may go up again. Singapore’s property market has been heating up over the past year as buyers take advantage of low interest rates and expectations that prices will climb further after the economy recovers. While it is believed that authorities may impose cooling measures for the first time since 2018, the central bank stated this week that the property market isn’t overheated yet.

 

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s unemployment rate falls to 2.8% in May 2021 from 2.9% in the previous month

(01 July 2021) According to statistics released by the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM), Singapore’s unemployment rate fell to 2.8% in May 2021 from 2.9% in April 2021. The jobless rate for citizens fell to 4% in May 2021 from 4.1% in April 2021, while the rate for residents dropped to 3.8% from 3.9%. Singapore’s unemployment rate peaked in September 2020, and has remained flat or declined month-to-month since. Although the Singapore Manpower Minister stated that the downward trend in the unemployment rate was a ‘good sign’, authorities’ optimism is tempered by the possible resurgence of the virus globally. The ministry has been releasing monthly unemployment figures since July 2020. Previously, the rates were published quarterly.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia tightens COVID-19 related restrictions in dozens of sub-districts across Selangor state and Kuala Lumpur

(01 July 2021) The Malaysian government will introduce tightened COVID-19-related restrictions in dozens of sub-districts in Selangor state as well as several localities in the capital Kuala Lumpur. Under the new restrictions, people staying in districts such as Petaling Jaya and Klang must remain at home from 03 July to 16 July 2021. Only one person from each household will be allowed to leave the house to purchase essential items. Malaysia posted 6,988 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with Selangor and Kuala Lumpur contributing more than half the recorded infections. Airports and docks will be allowed to resume operations, while public transport will be allowed to operate at 50% capacity. People working in essential services or carrying out government duties will be exempted from the new restrictions.


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AUSTRALIA
Australia’s mining and energy exports expected to hit record high of US$310 billion this financial year
(28 June 2021) Australia’s mining and energy exports are expected to hit a record high of US$310 billion this financial year, unholding the national economy amidst a trade spat with China as well as the global pandemic. Forecasts for energy and resource export earnings are expected to further rise by 7.7% to US$334 billion next financial year, boosted by projected infrastructure spending globally. A surge in demand for iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, pushed the price of the commodity to a record $US230 a tonne, as aggressive infrastructure-focused stimulus programs in China fuel booming demand for the steel-making raw material, alongside constraints in global seaborne supply from Brazil. However, the effects of the pandemic on global energy demand as well as Chinese restrictions on Australian exports meant that Australian coal miners lost a combined US$20 billion in the value of their exports over the past year.

JAPAN
Business confidence for Japanese manufacturers improves in second quarter amidst improving global demand
(02 July 2021) Business confidence for big manufacturers in Japan improved in the second quarter of 2021 to hit a two-and-half-year high. This indicated that a recovery in global demand was helping the Japanese economy emerge from its COVID-19-induced downturn. According to the Bank of Japan, the headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment jumped to plus 14 from plus 5 in March 2021, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement and posting the highest level since December 2018. Service-sector sentiment also turned positive for the first time in five quarters. An index gauging big non-manufacturers’ sentiments stood at plus 1, against -1 in the previous survey, marking the highest reading since March 2020. Japan’s economy shrank by an annualized 3.9% in the first quarter of 2021, and is believed to have only grown modestly in the April-June period.

CHINA, JAPAN 
China on track to overtake Japan as world’s largest importer of liquified natural gas
(02 July 2021) China is on track to overtake Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquified natural gas (LNG). According to analytics firm Rystad Energy, Chinese LNG imports are projected at 75.5 million tons in 2021, edging out Japan’s 75.1 million tons. Japan had been the world leader in LNG purchases for the past half century, but a maturing national market means that Japanese utilities and gas companies have shortened LNG contracts at smaller volumes. Concurrently, Chinese deals are expanding along with its economy, with some purchasers agreeing to LNG contracts lasting over a decade with substantial import volumes. Japan is now leading the way in developing ammonia as a next-generation fuel.

CARI Captures Issue 508: Singapore ranks 1st in the Asia Pacific and 4th globally in 2021 Global Fintech Ranking

RCEP/ ASEAN 
Singapore ranks 1st in the Asia Pacific and 4th globally in 2021 Global Fintech Ranking

(25 June 2021) Singapore has fallen one rung to fourth place in the 2021 Global Fintech Rankings. While it still takes the top spot among countries in the Asia-Pacific, the Republic faces stiff competition from countries like Australia, China and Japan, which have moved up the leaderboard this year. Other cities in Southeast Asian countries, like Jakarta, have moved up 27 places in the city rankings to number 32 globally, whereas Kuala Lumpur is up 11 places to the 67th spot. According to CB Insights, the number of fintech unicorns has increased from 61 in April 2020 to 108 a year later, with the combined valuation of these unicorns more than doubling to US$440 billion.
 

INDONESIA 
Indonesia plans to start its own bullion bank by 2024 to boost domestic gold trade

(24 June 2021) The government of Indonesia is planning to establish a national bullion bank that will allow the trading of gold domestically as soon as 2024, according to the country’s Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi. Indonesia is the world’s tenth biggest gold producer, with the Grasberg mine in Papua holding one of the largest reserves across the world. The nation is ranked number one among Southeast Asia’s major gold miners. According to the minister, Indonesia has to export most of its gold to such countries as Singapore and Australia, hubs for trading rather than consumption. An onshore bullion bank able to provide clearing, hedging, trading and vaulting of gold and precious metals, would cut the need to import gold products after they’re certified overseas. The measure will help to develop the local industry by providing financing opportunities, and let the central bank use gold instruments to manage stability, according to Iskandar Simorangkir, deputy for macroeconomics and finance policy coordination at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs.’.
 

LAO PDR
Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation investing in Southeast Asia’s largest onshore windfarm in Laos  

(21 June 2021) Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation has just boosted the development of what will be Southeast Asia’s largest onshore wind farm in southern Laos, by announcing a major investment in the project. Power from the wind farm will be sold to Vietnam Electricity, the state-owned electric power company under a 25-year agreement. The 600-megawatt capacity wind farm project, to be located near the Sekong River in Laos’ Sekong and Attapeu provinces, will be developed through an intermediate holding company, Diamond Generating Asia, Ltd., Mitsubishi’s wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong, together with Impact Electrons Siam Co Ltd. in Thailand. The amount of Mitsubishi’s investment was not made public.
 

MALAYSIA 
China's Risen Energy picks Malaysia for first Southeast Asian mega plant, to invest RM42.2 billion (US$10.16 billion)

(24 June 2021) Chinese solar energy firm Risen Energy Co Ltd will invest RM42.2 billion (US$10.16 billion) over 15 years in a new production facility in Malaysia to manufacture high-efficiency photovoltaic modules. The new facility in Kulim Hi-Tech Park, Kedah would be Risen Energy's first investment in Southeast Asia, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali said in a statement today. It was expected to be completed by the year-end and begin commercial activities by Q1 2022, added Azmin. The new facility would contribute an annual production capacity of three gigawatts (3GW) of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules for the first five years to meet growing global demand, he said.
 

SINGAPORE  
Singapore to increase spending on ICT to S$3.8 billion (US$2.83 billion); more projects for SMEs

(23 June 2021) Singapore will spend an estimated S$3.8 billion (US$2.83 billion) on the procurement of information and communications technology (ICT) this financial year, up nearly 10% from a year ago, said the Government Technology Agency (GovTech). The projected spending will go towards transforming the Government’s digital services and digital infrastructure. Of the S$2.7 billion (US$2.01 billion), nearly half (44%) will go to developing digital services on the cloud. The agency also said that more than 80% of the ICT contracts will be made easily available for SMEs through “streamlined procurement methods”. Meanwhile, around 13% of the estimated spending for this financial year will go to ramping up the adoption and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) for the public sector.

 

THE PHILIPPINES
Philippines Tire Markets Report 2021: Market is Expected to Grow from US$591.31 Million in 2020 to US$1.48 Billion with a CAGR of 15.36% by 2026

(23 June 2021) The Philippines Tire market is expected to grow from US$591.31 million in 2020 to US$1,482.04 million with a CAGR of 15.36% by 2026 because of growing automotive sales and technological advancement, according to a market research report by TechSci Research. Major players operating in the Philippines Tire Market are Bridgestone Corporation, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, Yokohama Tire Corporation, Chinese brands, Michelin, Dunlop Tires, Maxxis International, CST, Toyo Tire Corporation and Federal Corp. Technological advancements play an important role in developing the Philippines tire market as tire manufacturers are increasingly focusing on developing and manufacturing high-tech tires for automobiles in the Philippines.
 

VIETNAM
Vietnam tighten its grip on social media under the New Code of Conduct
 
(21 June 2021) Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications issued a Code of Conduct (COC) for social media behaviour on 17 June. The COC targets three major groups comprising of social network users (including individuals and organizations), officials and employees of State authorities and social network service providers (including onshore and offshore service providers). The COC encourage users to use real names and requests platforms to cooperate with authorities to remove illegal content. Social media platforms are also encouraged to devise ways to protect the vulnerable segments of society, including the poor, ethnic minority communities, children and the disabled. The code asks government officials to provide feedback on opinions expressed on social media platforms. Most of the contents of the COC are otherwise quoted from the 2006 Law on Information Technology and Decree 72, and therefore, any violation of the COC may correspondingly be punished in line with those provisions of law.


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CAMBODIA
Ministry of Commerce: RCEP could be ratified by 1 Jan 2022
(22 June 2021) The Cambodian Ministry of Commerce expects the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement to enter into force on Jan 1, 2022. A virtual intergovernmental meeting was held on June 21 to present a draft law authorising the RCEP’s ratification to a National Assembly committee. Speaking at June 21’s meeting, Minister of Commerce Pan Sorasak stressed that with its numerous merits, the RCEP is “absolutely necessary” for the economic integration of Cambodia into the region and the world.

JAPAN/ ASEAN
Japan pledges US$10 billion for energy renewables and LNG projects to drive ASEAN energy transition
(21 June 2021) Japan has offered ASEAN energy ministers US$10 billion in public finance for renewables and LNG projects, as part of a package of measures aimed at helping the group of 10 Southeastern Asian economies accelerate their moves toward energy transition. Japan’s package of actions, dubbed the Asia Energy Transition Initiative (AETI) and set to include a wide range of support measures for the energy transition in ASEAN countries, was welcomed by ASEAN energy ministers. Japan also proposed the idea of the Asia Energy Transition Finance scheme, as the region will need finance to achieve its diverse energy transition arrangements, with projects such as gas-fired power plants potentially not able to secure needed finance in the face of global headwinds against fossil fuels. The US$10 billion financial support aims to help ASEAN countries introduce renewables and energy conservation as well as LNG to transit away from coal.

HONG KONG 
Hong Kong actively applying to join RCEP says financial chief 
(24 June 2021) Hong Kong has been actively applying to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), said Financial Secretary Paul Chan on 24 June. Joining the RCEP will not only strengthen the economic, trade and investment ties between the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and RCEP member economies but also help the financial hub further integrate into the regional economy and help local companies to open up regional markets, Chan said via video link at a summit organized by Caixin on regional economic challenges and solutions. On the same day, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it supports the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) to join the RCEP as early as possible.