RCEP Monitor

NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand’s consumer confidence index declines to 93.2 in March
(27 March 2025) New Zealand’s consumer confidence index declined to 93.2 in March from 96.6 in February, according to ANZ-Roy Morgan data. The ANZ’s Chief Economist stated that while economic conditions are improving, the impact is not yet visible due to rising unemployment and business failures. Confidence fell across nearly all sectors as consumers remained cautious on spending. A reading below 100 indicates pessimism in the market.

CHINA
China urges global business leaders to resist actions that disrupt global industrial and supply chains
(28 March 2025) Xi Jinping urged over 40 global business leaders, including executives from FedEx, Mercedes-Benz, HSBC, AstraZeneca, Thyssenkrupp, and Saudi Aramco, to resist actions that disrupt global industrial and supply chains. Speaking in Beijing, Xi warned against “small yards with high walls,” referring to trade restrictions and economic securitisation by certain countries. He stated that such measures force businesses into choices that contradict economic principles and harm global trade stability. The meeting marked Xi’s second consecutive engagement with foreign CEOs, following last year’s US-focused event. His comments come as Beijing positions itself as a defender of open markets amid trade tensions, particularly with the US, where new tariffs are set to take effect on 2 April. Xi emphasised that “decoupling and severing ties harms others without benefiting oneself.” He assured foreign firms that China would provide equal treatment in government procurement and legal consistency, acknowledging concerns over market barriers, subsidies, and domestic demand.

JAPAN
Shares of major Japanese automakers decline following announcement of new US tariffs on auto imports  
(27 March 2025) Shares of major Japanese automakers declined following the announcement of a 25% US tariff on auto imports set to take effect next week. Toyota shares dropped 3.7%, Nissan fell 3.2%, and Honda declined 3.1% at the Tokyo market open, while Mitsubishi Motors lost 3.7%. In South Korea, Hyundai shares fell 3.4%. Vehicles comprised approximately one-third of Japan’s JPY 21.3 trillion (USD 142 billion) in US-bound exports in 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Tokyo would consider “all options” in response, highlighting Japan’s significant investments and job creation in the US. He questioned the rationale for uniform tariffs on all countries and reaffirmed Japan’s position in parliamentary remarks. The chair of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association warned that the tariffs could negatively impact both US and Japanese economies. Japanese officials have unsuccessfully lobbied for tariff exemptions on steel and vehicles. The Trump administration justifies the tariffs as a means to raise revenue, revitalise US industry, and advance policy priorities. Approximately 50% of cars sold in the US are domestically manufactured, with the remainder primarily imported from Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany.

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CHINA
Industrial output grew 5.9% year-on-year in January-February 2024
(17 March 2025) China’s industrial output grew 5.9% year-on-year in January–February 2024, down from 6.2% in December but exceeding the 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll. Retail sales increased 4.0%, up from 3.7% in December and in line with analyst expectations. Fixed asset investment rose 4.1%, surpassing the projected 3.6% increase and higher than the 3.2% growth recorded in 2023. The National Bureau of Statistics published the data as a combined release to account for the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays.

CHINA
Urban youth unemployment rate rises to 16.9% in February, excluding students
(20 March 2025) China’s urban youth unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds, excluding students, rose to 16.9% in February from 16.1% in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The jobless rate for 25-29-year-olds increased to 7.3% from 6.9%, while unemployment among 30-59-year-olds climbed to 4.3% from 4.0%. The overall nationwide urban unemployment rate reached a two-year high of 5.4%. The government resumed publishing youth unemployment data in December 2023 after suspending it following a record 21.3% rate in June that year, now excluding students. The metric does not account for discouraged job seekers or rural unemployment. China’s leadership has committed to fiscal and monetary measures to boost domestic consumption amid trade pressures from the US. The government has set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, though analysts warn of challenges from weak household demand, export pressures, and a prolonged property sector downturn.

NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand exits recession with 0.7% growth in Q4 2023  
(20 March 2025) New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.7% in Q4 2023, rebounding from consecutive contractions of 1.1% in the prior two quarters, according to Stats NZ. Growth was recorded in 11 of 16 industries, with rentals, hiring, and real estate services leading gains, while construction declined 3.1%. Tourism-related sectors saw increased activity due to higher international visitor spending. New Zealand’s Finance Minister stated the data indicates potential improvement, though challenges remain. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has prioritised economic growth, with a focus on foreign investment. Westpac has called the result a “genuine upside surprise,” suggesting it may lead to fewer interest rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has eased since August, reducing the official cash rate by 175 basis points to 3.75%. ANZ expects the central bank to cut rates three more times, bringing the OCR to 3.0% by July, while noting inflation remains on track toward the 2% target.

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CHINA
Chinese equities attract increased global attention amid concerns over US market stability 
(14 March 2025) Chinese equities have attracted increased global investment amid concerns over U.S. market stability, with the Hang Seng Index rising 17% since Donald Trump took office, compared to a 9% drop in the S&P 500. Technology stocks have driven the rally, with the HSTECH index up 29% in 2025, following AI startup DeepSeek’s launch of its R1 reasoning model. Chinese equities remain 30% below 2021 highs and trade at seven times projected 12-month earnings, compared to 20 times for the S&P 500. J.P. Morgan has observed record conversions of U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan into Hong Kong dollars, signalling capital inflows. Greenwoods Asset Management exited all U.S. holdings in early February, turning bullish on China’s tech and consumer sectors. February saw USD 3.8 billion in foreign investment in Chinese equities after three months of withdrawals, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors view China’s stimulus measures and a February meeting between Xi Jinping and business leaders as positive. Meanwhile, European defense stocks have gained following Trump’s remarks on NATO. Analysts remain cautious about China’s corporate transparency, deflation risks, and trade tensions with the U.S., with some investors adopting a tactical approach rather than making long-term commitments.

JAPAN, HONG KONG
Japanese municipalities increasing efforts to attract Hong Kong tourists to lesser-known regions
(13 March 2025) Japanese municipalities are increasing efforts to attract Hong Kong tourists to lesser-known regions, with 17 Japan booths featured at the Hong Kong Holiday & Travel Expo in February, over four times the number at last September’s event. Representatives from Aomori, Kochi, Shizuoka, and Tokushima promoted their destinations, with Tokushima officials engaging directly with travel agencies to sell tour packages. Japan remains a top destination for Hong Kong travellers, with 2.68 million visits in 2024, a 27% increase from 2023, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. This figure represents 36% of Hong Kong’s population, surpassing Taiwan’s 26% travel rate. The weak yen has fuelled demand, with frequent visitors exploring rural areas beyond major cities. Airlines are expanding direct flights to these locations, with Greater Bay Airlines launching services to Tokushima in November and Hong Kong Airlines introducing Sendai routes in December. Hong Kong travellers cite Japan’s natural scenery, cultural familiarity, and convenience as key reasons for repeat visits.

AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES
Australian meat exporters face uncertainty over potential US tariffs  
(13 March 2025) Australian meat exporters face uncertainty over potential US tariffs, with USD 6.2 billion in beef and meat exports at risk. The CEO of Cattle Australia expressed concern over the US administration’s protectionist stance, stating that trade barriers would be strongly opposed. The US remains Australia’s largest market for beef, lamb, and goat meat, accounting for nearly 30% of the country’s USD 39 billion of meat exports in 2024. Comparatively, aluminium and steel exports to the US, now subject to 25% tariffs, were worth USD 812 million last year, according to ANZ. The Albanese government has intensified its response to the new tariffs, with Industry Minister Ed Husic calling them a “dog act.” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signalled prolonged negotiations, referencing the months-long effort to secure exemptions in 2018. The Lowy Institute criticised the tariffs as counterproductive and recommended a coordinated response through the World Trade Organisation alongside South Korea, Japan, and China. Meat & Livestock Australia stated that the industry is monitoring developments and avoiding speculation. Key beef-producing states Queensland, Victoria, and New South Wales stand to be impacted if tariffs are imposed.

ASEAN
Southeast Asia’s Islamic finance sector reaches USD 859 billion in 2023, with Malaysia leading the way 
(04 March 2025) Southeast Asia’s Islamic finance sector reached USD 859 billion in 2023, representing 17% of the USD 4.9 trillion global market, according to the ICD-LSEG report. Malaysia alone accounted for 80% of the regional total (USD 682 billion). Indonesia’s Islamic finance assets stood at USD 162 billion, lagging behind the UAE (USD 371 billion) and Kuwait (USD 198 billion). Malaysia remains the sector leader, topping the Islamic Finance Development Indicator rankings, with its score rising 40% in 2023, while Indonesia’s increased by 46.5%. Bank Negara Malaysia’s Governor stated that Islamic banking now represents nearly half of Malaysia’s total financing, with the Islamic interbank money market covering one-third of the market and Shariah-compliant stocks making up 81% of listed shares. Malaysia’s sukuk market accounts for 42% of global outstanding sukuk, with 2023 issuance rising to MYR 27.6 billion (USD 6.19 billion) from MYR 10.6 billion the prior year. LSEG forecasts the global Islamic finance market will exceed USD 7.5 trillion by 2028, with Southeast Asia’s share expected to expand, though the Islamic Financial Services Board warns that higher funding costs and tighter monetary policies could slow growth.

MALAYSIA
British semiconductor firm Arm Holdings signs USD 250 million agreement with Malaysia
(05 March 2025) British semiconductor firm Arm Holdings signed a USD 250 million agreement with Malaysia to support the latter’s expansion into high-end semiconductor production, including wafer fabrication and integrated circuit design. The deal, spanning a decade, aims to provide Malaysia with the capabilities and skills to manufacture and assemble chips domestically. Arm will also open its first Southeast Asian office in Kuala Lumpur to enhance its presence in the region, Australia, and New Zealand. The partnership includes training for 10,000 local semiconductor engineers and is intended to build a complete supply chain in AI data servers, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and robotics. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim described the initiative as one of the country’s most ambitious technological projects. Malaysia currently accounts for 13% of global back-end chip manufacturing and is pursuing expansion in semiconductor design, with a planned semiconductor design park being announced in April 2024.

MALAYSIA
Bank Negara Malaysia maintains overnight policy rate at 3% in second meeting of the year 
(06 March 2025) Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate at 3% in its second meeting of the year, in line with analyst expectations, citing steady domestic growth and manageable inflation. The central bank stated that economic momentum should persist into 2025, supported by employment growth, consumer spending, and public and private sector investments. The government maintained its GDP growth forecast at 4.5%-5.5% for 2024 but warned of risks from the escalating global trade war and potential US tariffs on semiconductor imports, a key Malaysian export. Inflation is projected to average 2%-3.5% in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024, with limited price pressure expected from wage increases and subsidy reductions. BNM noted that external factors will largely influence the ringgit, which strengthened 0.2% to 4.42 against the dollar following the decision. The ringgit was the best-performing emerging market currency in 2023 after BNM measures to repatriate overseas income. While Malaysia has resisted the global easing trend, the central bank signaled vigilance towards inflation and growth risks, suggesting that the 3% policy rate could be maintained throughout 2025.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia records over five million tourists under 30-day visa-free policy
(06 March 2025) Malaysia recorded 4,145,535 tourist arrivals from China and 1,464,499 from India under the 30-day visa-free policy implemented between December 2023 and December 2024, according to the Tourism, Arts and Culture Ministry. The ministry stated in a parliamentary written reply on 5 March that the policy contributed to national revenue and reinforced Malaysia’s position in investment, trade, and tourism. The response was issued to an MP in parliament, who inquired about the programme’s status and its impact on tourist arrivals. The ministry noted that the initiative successfully boosted tourism from high-potential markets.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam records trade deficit of USD 1.55 billion in February 2025
(06 March 2025) Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of USD 1.55 billion in February, reversing from a USD 3.02 billion surplus in January, according to government data. Exports increased by 25.7% year-on-year in February, while imports surged by 40%. For the January-February period, exports grew 8.4% and imports rose 15.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 1.47 billion. Industrial production rose 17.2% year-on-year in February, significantly higher than January’s 0.6% growth. Retail sales increased by 9.4% from the previous year. Foreign investment inflows in the first two months of 2024 increased by 5.4% year-on-year to approximately USD 3 billion, while foreign investment pledges rose 35.5% to USD 6.9 billion.

THE PHILIPPINES
Annual inflation rate slows to 2.1% in February 2025, below median forecast
(05 March 2025) The Philippines’ annual inflation rate slowed to 2.1% in February, below the 2.6% median forecast and January’s 2.9% rate, marking the slowest increase since September. Core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.6% in January. Food inflation declined to 2.6% from 4.0%, driven by a 4.9% drop in rice inflation, the steepest fall since April 2020. The central bank, which kept its key interest rate steady in February after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, remains on an easing cycle. Economists suggested a 25-basis-point rate cut could occur as early as April. The government previously declared a food security emergency to address high rice prices, which have remained elevated despite lower global costs and tariff reductions in 2024.

INDONESIA
Indonesia posts first annual deflation in more than two decades
(03 March 2025) Indonesia recorded a 0.09% year-on-year deflation in February, the first annual decline since March 2000, missing the lowest economist estimate of 0.04% inflation. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel category fell 12% year-on-year due to extended government electricity tariff discounts. Staple food prices, including rice, tomato, and red chili, also declined, contributing to continued monthly deflation from January. Inflation remains below Bank Indonesia’s 1.5%-3.5% target range for 2025, though core inflation rose to 2.48% due to higher prices of gold jewellery and cooking oil. The rupiah gained for the first time in five days following the implementation of revised regulations requiring natural resources exporters to keep all foreign exchange earnings onshore for a year. Despite this, the currency has declined 2.32% year-to-date, making it the weakest performer among major Asian currencies.

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CHINA
China sets 2025 GDP growth target of about 5% while also raising fiscal deficit 
(05 March 2025) China has set a 2025 GDP growth target of “about 5%” and raised its fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP (the highest in three decades) to counter weak domestic demand, youth unemployment, and a property sector debt crisis. Premier Li Qiang announced plans to create 12 million new urban jobs as the government targets 2% inflation, while also emphasising domestic demand as the primary growth driver. The 32-page government report highlighted external challenges, including trade and technology restrictions, and internal weaknesses such as sluggish consumption. The defence budget will rise by 7.2% to CYN 1.78 trillion (USD 245 billion), continuing China’s military modernisation under President Xi Jinping’s 2035 goal, with spending allocated to missile systems, submarines, and surveillance technology. The military is also increasing training and drills, focusing on Taiwan and the South China Sea. China remains the world’s second-largest military spender behind the US..

AUSTRALIA
Australia’s economic inequality reaches 20-year high in 2022
(05 March 2025) Australia’s economic inequality reached a 20-year high in 2022, with the Gini coefficient rising to 0.32, the first time exceeding 0.31 since 2001, according to the latest HILDA survey. Higher incomes grew faster than middle incomes, while lower incomes stagnated, reversing the reduction in inequality seen during the pandemic. More than half of respondents reported a decline in real income between 2021 and 2022. Childcare costs increased by 76% per child for single parents since 2006, compared to 48% for couples. Wage inequality among women grew by 10.5% over the course of the survey, with full-time female employees experiencing a 4.8% decline in average earnings and a 6.8% drop in middle-income earnings.

JAPAN, UK
Japan and UK to hold first economic “two-plus-two” dialogue on 07 March
(06 March 2025) Japan and the U.K. will hold their first economic “two-plus-two” dialogue on 07 March, with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Economy Minister Yoji Muto meeting British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds in Tokyo. The officials will emphasise the importance of free trade amid rising U.S. protectionism and sign a memorandum on offshore wind power cooperation. Discussions will cover supply chain security for critical materials, economic security challenges, and recent U.S. tariff policies. Japan and the U.K. are not currently subject to U.S. tariffs but face potential levies, with Muto set to visit Washington to discuss Japan’s exemption from proposed steel and automobile tariffs. The two countries are considering a working-level consultation on economic security, including semiconductor and mineral supplies, and aim to promote cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology. They will also monitor market distortions from government-subsidised Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels. Discussions may include energy security, engagement with the Global South, and assistance for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The U.K. implemented an economic partnership agreement with Japan in 2021 and joined the CPTPP in 2023.

THAILAND
Three of the wealthiest families in Southeast Asia are Thai
(25 February 2025) The Bloomberg list identifies three of Southeast Asia’s five wealthiest families as Thai, with the Chearavanont family leading at USD 42.6 billion, followed by the Yoovidhya family at USD 25.7 billion and the Chirathivat family at USD 15.7 billion. The Chearavanonts’ wealth stems from the Charoen Pokphand Group, founded in 1921 and now spanning multiple industries, with Dhanin Chearavanont’s grandson Korawad recently launching tech firm Amity. The Yoovidhya family, creators of Krating Daeng and co-founders of Red Bull, derive their fortune from the global success of the energy drink, with Chalerm Yoovidhya overseeing their assets. The Chirathivats control Central Group, one of Thailand’s largest commercial conglomerates, established in 1947 by Tiang Chirathivat and now led by his grandson Tos. The two non-Thai families on the list are Indonesia’s Hartono family, worth USD 42.2 billion, who built their fortune on Djarum cigarettes and Bank Central Asia, and Singapore-Malaysia’s Kwek family, worth USD 17.9 billion, whose Hong Leong Group operates across real estate, hotels, and finance under Kwek Leng Beng in Singapore and Quek Leng Chan in Malaysia. 

ASEAN
Malaysian Prime Minister calls for resilient ASEAN supply chains
(26 February 2025) At the ASEAN Future Forum 2025 in Hanoi, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim called for resilient ASEAN supply chains to counter geostrategic challenges, including recent US tariffs and retaliatory measures. He questioned whether ASEAN could benefit from global supply chain diversification or risk being caught in geopolitical conflicts. He emphasised equitable distribution of trade and investment gains, citing a stark GDP per capita disparity among ASEAN members, with some economies over 34 times wealthier than others. Anwar urged trade integration aligned with sustainability trends, advocating for measurement, reporting, and verification of environmental footprints to enhance competitiveness and attract green investments. He warned against over-dependence on single markets or industries, stressing that ASEAN’s strength lies in unity and economic cohesion. Malaysia’s 2025 ASEAN chairmanship will focus on inclusivity and sustainability to foster regional integration and economic resilience.

THAILAND
Thailand’s Cabinet urges Bank of Thailand to align monetary policy with growth goals
(25 February 2025) Thailand’s Cabinet has urged the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to implement monetary policies that keep inflation within the 1-3% target range and align with fiscal policies to support economic growth, according to Thailand’s Deputy Finance Minister. The government expects a further policy rate reduction, considering its impact on inflation, exchange rates, and economic growth. The previous rate cut in October 2024, from 2.50% to 2.25%, increased capital circulation and had positive effects on inflation and exchange rates. This is the second time the Cabinet has called for a rate cut, citing persistently low inflation. The Deputy Finance Minister stated that Thailand has enough fiscal space for a reduction despite the National Economic and Social Development Council’s recommendation to maintain the rate. He emphasised that there is no need for excessive caution, though the final decision remains with the BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee.

SINGAPORE
Monetary Authority of Singapore launches USD 5 billion programme to increase stock market liquidity
(24 February 2025) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has launched a USD 5 billion programme to increase liquidity in the Singapore stock market, directing funds to selected local asset managers for investment in Singapore equities. Fund managers welcomed the initiative but emphasised the need for clarity on investment allocations, particularly for small- and mid-cap stocks outside the Straits Times Index (STI), which face liquidity constraints. SGX shares rose to USD 13.70 on 24 February, up from USD 12.80 on 21 February, before closing at USD 13.30, a 3.9% increase. MAS will also streamline listing regulations to facilitate IPOs, following recommendations from a review group established in August 2024.

SINGAPORE
Core inflation declines to 0.8% year-on-year in January 2025 
(24 February 2025) Singapore’s core inflation declined to 0.8% year-on-year in January 2025, down from a revised 1.7% in December, marking its lowest level since June 2021 and below Bloomberg’s 1.5% forecast. The 0.9 percentage point drop was attributed to broad-based moderation across major goods and services categories and the fading effects of past GST hikes. Headline inflation also fell to 1.2% from 1.5% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 2.3%. The Singapore Department of Statistics rebased the consumer price index (CPI) from 2019 to 2024, though OCBC indicated this had minimal impact on January’s inflation readings. Electricity and gas prices fell 2.9% year-on-year, while retail and other goods declined 0.6%, led by footwear and medical goods. Food inflation moderated to 1.5% from 2.3%, while services inflation dropped to 1% from 1.6% due to lower education and healthcare costs. Accommodation inflation eased to 1.6% from 2.1% on slower rent and maintenance cost increases. Private transport costs rose 2.8%, reversing December’s 0.9% decline. MAS and the Ministry of Trade and Industry maintained their 2025 inflation forecasts, expecting core inflation between 1% and 2% and overall inflation between 1.5% and 2.5%.

MALAYSIA
Digital investments reaches MYR 163.6 billion in 2024, more than tripling from 2023 
(27 February 2025) Malaysia’s digital investments reached MYR 163.6 billion in 2024, more than tripling from MYR 46.8 billion in 2023, driven by increased focus on AI and advanced computing, according to Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC). Investments in data centres and cloud infrastructure comprised 76.8% of the total. Foreign direct investments were led by Singapore (MYR 57 billion), followed by the US (MYR 23 billion), China (MYR 12 billion), Australia (MYR 2.6 billion), and India (MYR 2 billion). Domestic direct investments were concentrated in the Klang Valley (MYR 136 billion), with Johor (MYR 22 billion), Penang (MYR 3 billion), Sabah (MYR 423 million), and Sarawak (MYR 280 million) also receiving significant amounts. Malaysia has established a Data Centre Task Force to drive further growth and ensure sustainability in the sector. The increase in digital investments aligns with the Malaysian Investment Development Authority’s (MIDA) announcement that total approved investments in 2024 hit MYR 378.5 billion, the highest in the country’s history and a nearly 15% rise from 2023. The MDEC CEO stated that the agency will continue working with MIDA to maintain investment momentum and achieve a 5% investment growth target in 2025.

VIET NAM
Exports reaches record USD 403 billion in 2024, up 13.8% from 2023
(24 February 2025) Viet Nam’s exports reached a record USD 403 billion in 2024, up 13.8% from 2023, surpassing USD 400 billion for the first time. This growth outpaced Malaysia (5.6%), Thailand (5.4%), and Indonesia (2.3%). Exports to the U.S. rose 23.4% to USD 120 billion, the highest in the region, while exports to China fell 2%. Vietnam had 35 Apple suppliers in 2024, the most in Southeast Asia, and is projected to produce 20% of iPads and Apple Watches, 5% of MacBooks, and 65% of AirPods in 2025. Meta will begin producing virtual reality headsets in Vietnam, creating 1,000 jobs. Samsung is investing USD 1.8 billion in an OLED manufacturing plant, while South Korea’s Hyosung Group plans to invest USD 4 billion. ASEAN exports to the U.S. surpassed USD 80 billion in Q3 2024, exceeding exports to China, which declined to USD 72 billion. Malaysia’s and Viet Nam’s semiconductor and machinery exports to the U.S. rose 35% and 33%, respectively. U.S. export controls on semiconductor equipment may affect ASEAN exports to China, particularly in Malaysia and Singapore. Vietnam’s government has set a 2025 export target of USD 451 billion, a 12% increase, with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh warning of risks from a global trade war.

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CHINA
Proposal for central government to absorb at least CYN 20 trillion of local sovereign debt
(26 February 2025) David Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor and policy adviser, stated that China’s central government should absorb at least CYN 20 trillion (USD 2.8 trillion) of local sovereign debt to enable regional authorities to support consumer spending and economic growth. He estimates local governments owe CYN 10 trillion in arrears, equivalent to 7% of China’s GDP, affecting payments to suppliers and civil servants. Li proposed a large-scale debt swap of CYN 20 to 50 trillion, with Beijing issuing bonds and acquiring local assets in return. He linked this measure to countering weak consumption and potential trade pressures from US policies under Donald Trump. Local governments, which previously drove growth, now struggle due to a property slump, with total on-balance-sheet debt reaching CYN 47 trillion by the end of 2025 and hidden debt estimated at CYN 60 trillion by the IMF. The Finance Ministry’s CYN 10 trillion bond plan in November provided only temporary relief. Li also called for expanding consumer product and equipment upgrade incentives to CYN 800 billion to CYN 1 trillion and suggested cash subsidies during major holidays.

CHINA
Authorities raises scrutiny of capital outflows via outbound investments and Hong Kong listings 
(25 February 2025) Chinese authorities have tightened controls on outbound investments and the use of proceeds from Hong Kong share sales amid record capital outflows and yuan depreciation pressures. Companies incorporated in China seeking IPOs or secondary listings in Hong Kong must now obtain a “no objection” indication from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) to use proceeds overseas; otherwise, funds must be repatriated. Regulators are also scrutinising offshore money transfers under the guise of direct investment, concerned about fabricated transactions after USD 168 billion in investment outflows last year. SAFE’s role in monitoring offshore stock offerings has expanded, requiring companies to keep authorities updated throughout share sales. Hong Kong’s share sale proceeds nearly doubled to USD 10 billion in 2024, with major listings planned, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), which could be the largest in four years.

SOUTH KOREA
Birthrate increases in 2024 for first time in nine years 
(26 February 2025) South Korea’s birthrate increased in 2024 for the first time in nine years, reaching 4.7 births per 1,000 people, according to preliminary data from Statistics Korea. The fertility rate rose to 0.75 from 0.72 in 2023, while the number of births grew by 8,300 (3.6%) to 238,300. Marriages, a key predictor of births, rose 14.9%, the highest increase since records began in 1970. Statistics Korea attributed this to a shift in social values, a larger early-30s population, and the continued post-COVID-19 marriage surge. Despite government incentives, the birthrate remains below the OECD average and far from the replacement level of 2.1. South Korea’s population continued to shrink, with deaths outpacing births by 120,000 for a fifth consecutive year. The total population, which peaked at 51.83 million in 2020, is projected to decline to 36.22 million by 2072. Vice-chairman of the presidential committee on ageing and population, Joo Hyung-hwan, stated that migration policies must be expanded beyond birthrate-focused measures. The number of foreign residents in 2024 reached 2.65 million, comprising about 5% of the total population.

ASEAN
Southeast Asia pursuing nuclear power to meet future energy needs 
(03 February 2025) Southeast Asian countries are pursuing nuclear energy to meet rising electricity demand, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and address air pollution. Indonesia plans 20 nuclear plants, while Viet Nam revived its nuclear ambitions by signing a cooperation deal with Russia on 14 January 2024, after suspending a project in 2016 due to escalating costs reaching USD 18 billion. A Korean company is assessing the potential revival of the dormant Bataan nuclear power plant in the Philippines. Singapore signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. in 2023. Nuclear financing remains limited, with the World Bank not funding projects, but 14 major financial institutions endorsed a target to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. The International Energy Agency expects a record high for nuclear-generated electricity in 2025 and urges an acceleration of new plant construction to meet emission targets. Small modular reactors are being promoted as a cheaper and safer alternative, but their commercial viability remains uncertain. Critics cite safety concerns, uranium supply risks, and challenges in waste disposal. Viet Nam faces a skills gap, estimating a need for 2,400 trained personnel to restart its nuclear program.

ASEAN
ASEAN plans special summit with the US to discuss tariff concerns
(20 February 2025) ASEAN plans to hold a special summit with the United States to address proposed U.S. tariffs of 25% on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan announced. He stated that the tariffs would significantly impact Malaysia, where electrical and electronics products account for 60% of trade with the U.S. Malaysia, set to chair ASEAN in 2025, will work with member states to present a unified stance to mitigate potential economic burdens. The U.S. goods trade with Malaysia reached USD 80.2 billion in 2024, with a trade deficit of USD 24.8 billion, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

MALAYSIA
Over USD 31 billion in data center investments in first ten months of 2024
(19 February 2024) Malaysia’s data center market, concentrated in Johor state, has grown from near zero in 2019 to 1.6 gigawatts, with projections exceeding 5 gigawatts by 2035. The country attracted over USD 31 billion in data center investments in the first 10 months of 2024, tripling 2023 levels. Foreign firms, including Equinix, Microsoft, and China’s GDS Holdings, dominate the sector, with Johor hosting 22 mostly foreign-owned centers spanning over 21 hectares. The government expects data centers to modernise Malaysia’s economy but acknowledges their substantial energy demand. Malaysia’s renewable energy capacity in 2023 was less than the projected data center consumption in 2035, and 95% of the country’s energy came from fossil fuels in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated in September 2023 that Malaysia had a surplus of energy to sustain large projects. Concerns include water shortages and power reliability, as data centers require significant cooling and electricity, especially in Malaysia’s tropical climate. Malaysia is now the eighth-largest data center market globally and is on track to enter the top 10 within five to seven years.

INDONESIA
China-linked nickel smelter significantly cuts production amidst financial distress
(20 February 2025) PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry, an Indonesian nickel smelter linked to bankrupt Chinese firm Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co., has significantly cut production and is nearing a full shutdown due to financial distress. The company is delaying payments to local energy suppliers and struggling to secure nickel ore amid tight supply conditions caused by government-imposed mining quotas. Gunbuster, with an annual production capacity of 1.8 million tons of nickel pig iron, has shut down most of its 20 production lines since early 2025. A Chinese court-appointed working group of officials and lawyers from Xiangshui County, Jiangsu province, has taken control of the firm as part of Delong’s restructuring. Delong was one of the first major investors in Indonesia’s nickel smelting sector but faced increasing competition from Tsingshan Holding Group and the impact of China’s economic slowdown. The company had initially planned a USD 3 billion investment in the plant, which was inaugurated in 2021 in the presence of then-Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Global nickel prices have dropped nearly 50% since late 2022, putting pressure even on Indonesian producers with lower energy and labour costs.

INDONESIA
Indonesia to issue government bonds to finance low-income housing
(21 February 2025) Indonesia will issue government bonds to finance low-income housing projects, with Bank Indonesia committing to purchase the bonds in the secondary market. The funds will support the expansion of the government’s homeownership loan facility, part of a programme to build 3 million affordable houses annually. The issuance size was not disclosed. This aligns with Bank Indonesia’s broader support for President Prabowo Subianto’s priority initiatives. Previously, the central bank reduced reserve requirement ratios for banks providing mortgage loans, increasing liquidity incentives for the housing sector by up to IDR 80 trillion (USD 4.9 billion).

SINGAPORE
Prime Minister announces cash handouts in pre-election budget
(18 February 2025) Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced a budget package including SGD 800 (USD 596) vouchers for all households, additional utility subsidies for social housing residents, and credits for children and young adults. Singaporeans over 21 will receive SGD 600, while those over 60 will get SGD 800, marking the country’s 60th anniversary. Hawker centre food vendors will receive SGD 600 in rent support. Wong projected GDP growth of 1–3% in 2025, down from 4.4% in 2024, and inflation of 1.5%–2.5%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore recently eased monetary policy for the first time in four years. Wong accepted MAS recommendations to introduce tax incentives to attract stock market listings and fund manager investments, but analysts questioned their impact without pension fund participation. The government will increase its evaluation of nuclear power for key industries. The election must be held by November, with cost-of-living concerns expected to be central.

VIET NAM
National Assembly approves government restructuring plan reducing government workforce
(18 February 2025) Viet Nam’s National Assembly approved a restructuring plan reducing the government workforce by approximately 20%, affecting an estimated 100,000 civil servants. The plan, passed at an extraordinary session in Hanoi, abolishes five ministries, merges others, and consolidates state-run media by shutting down multiple TV channels, newspapers, and magazines. Nguyen Chi Dung, former planning and investment minister, will become deputy prime minister as his ministry merges with finance, alongside Mai Van Chinh, former head of the Party Central Committee’s Commission for Mass Mobilization, which is merging with the propaganda department. Communist Party chief To Lam is driving the reforms ahead of the 2026 National Party Congress, where he is positioning for a full term as general secretary. The government is offering compensation to displaced workers amid concerns about their transition to the private sector. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh targets 8% GDP growth for 2025, aiming for double-digit expansion in subsequent years.

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AUSTRALIA
RBA claims keeping rates unchanged would see core inflation undershoot this year
(20 February 2025) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that keeping interest rates unchanged this year would have caused core inflation to fall below the 2.5% midpoint of the bank’s target. The RBA’s latest forecasts, released alongside Tuesday’s policy decision, project trimmed mean inflation to decline to 2.7% from mid-2025 and remain at that level until mid-2027, assuming three rate cuts this year. The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, but Hauser emphasised that inflation at 3.2% remains above target, and the board remains focused on price stability. His comments, interpreted as hawkish by financial markets, pushed Australian 10-year government bond yields above US peers for the first time since 10 December. Traders now expect a second rate cut in August but have reduced the probability of a third cut to 70%. Hauser stated that all data leading up to the April 1 policy decision would be considered but cautioned against overemphasising monthly CPI data unless it significantly deviates from projections. He noted that Australia’s employment growth remains strong, with January’s job gains exceeding estimates, reinforcing confidence in the labour market.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea planning tariffs on low-cost Chinese steel imports
(20 February 2025) South Korea plans to impose provisional tariffs of up to 38.02% on Chinese hot-rolled steel plates, citing market disruption from low-cost imports, according to the trade ministry. Specific tariffs include nearly 28% on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and around 38% on Hunan Valin Xiangtang Iron and Steel Co. The investigation began in October following a request from Hyundai Steel Co. in July, with final approval pending from the finance ministry. Hyundai Steel’s shares surged up to 10% in Seoul, while Posco Holdings also saw gains. The move follows China’s nine-year high in steel exports and recent US tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium imports. Hyundai Steel and Posco Holdings cited cheap Chinese imports as key factors affecting their operations, with Posco closing its No. 1 wire rod plant in Pohang.

NEW ZEALAND
RBNZ cuts benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% 
(19 February 2025) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, signalling further cuts due to moderating inflation and a struggling economy. The RBNZ’s Governor indicated that the central bank anticipates two additional 25-basis point rate reductions in April and May, with the official cash rate potentially reaching 3% by the end of the year. The RBNZ’s updated forecast suggests rates will be 3.45% by June and 3.10% by Q4, down from prior projections. Since August, the bank has reduced rates by 175 basis points to stimulate a recession-hit economy. Inflation is expected to settle within the RBNZ’s target range, but global uncertainties, especially concerning U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, pose ongoing risks. The RBNZ aims to support demand despite the global economic instability, and its rate reductions contrast with more cautious approaches by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Australia. Inflation in New Zealand currently stands at 2.2%, with an expected rise to 2.7% in Q3 before easing again.

ASEAN
Experts advocate for ASEAN regional strategy to achieve greater food security
(12 February 2025) Asean’s agricultural imports reached USD 129.13 billion in 2023, with Viet Nam accounting for 20.9% (USD 27.05 billion), followed by Indonesia (USD 26.06 billion) and Malaysia (USD 20.34 billion). Key imports included wheat (USD 9.46 billion), soybeans (USD 5.21 billion), and corn (USD 5.21 billion), with the United States (USD 13.9 billion), Brazil (USD 13.8 billion), China (USD 13.3 billion), and Australia (USD 12.3 billion) as top suppliers. Experts advocate for a regional strategy to enhance intra-ASEAN food trade, reduce reliance on external markets, and eliminate non-tariff barriers. The Malaysia-based Khazanah Research Institute emphasised integrated supply chains, while other experts highlighted the need to secure fertilisers, seeds, and animal feed. Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto aims for food self-sufficiency within four years. PNB Research Institute suggested focusing on climate-suited crops like rice and tropical fruits, alongside collective bargaining for essential imports.

SINGAPORE, TAIWAN
Taiwanese investments into Singapore surpass that of China for first time since 1991  
(11 February 2025) In 2024, Taiwanese investments in Singapore reached USD 5.81 billion, surpassing the USD 3.65 billion invested in China—the first occurrence since 1991. A significant 87% of these investments targeted electronic parts and components manufacturing, including chip fabrication, while 10% were directed towards the financial and insurance sectors. United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is set to commence commercial production at its new USD 5 billion Singapore fabrication plant in 2026, which will also house UMC’s largest research and development centre outside Taiwan. Additionally, Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp and NXP Semiconductors initiated construction of a USD 7.8 billion 12-inch wafer fabrication plant in Tampines in December 2024, with production expected to begin in 2027. Cathay United Bank plans to double its Singapore branch workforce to approximately 200 employees in 2025, reflecting increased investments and client demand. Analysts attribute this shift to geopolitical tensions and a realignment of global supply chains favouring Southeast Asia. Singapore’s politically neutral stance, efficient infrastructure, and strong rule of law enhance its appeal as an investment destination for Taiwanese firms. This trend is anticipated to continue amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

INDONESIA
Indonesia diversifying trade partnerships amidst rising global protectionism
(13 February 2025) Indonesia is adjusting its trade strategy in response to rising global protectionism, with Indonesia’s Deputy Trade Minister stating that the government is safeguarding domestic manufacturers while expanding export markets. The US’s potential tariffs on Chinese goods could present opportunities for Indonesia, but officials are proceeding cautiously before implementing import regulations. Indonesia, a BRICS member, has not been directly targeted by US trade actions but remains watchful. Meetings with the US ambassador are scheduled next week. The government is diversifying trade partnerships, negotiating Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with Peru and Canada, and reopening talks with the EU despite challenges related to climate policies, particularly the EU’s deforestation law. Strengthening trade relations with India is also a priority, following President Prabowo Subianto’s recent visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

INDONESIA
Indonesia to launch USD 900 billion sovereign wealth fund on 24 February
(13 February 2025) Indonesia will launch the Danantara sovereign wealth fund on 24 February, with assets under management exceeding USD 900 billion (MYR 4 trillion), following parliamentary approval last week. President Prabowo Subianto stated the fund will invest in high-impact projects across renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, downstream industries, and food production to support the government’s goal of 8% annual economic growth by 2029, up from 5% in 2024. Modelled after Singapore’s Temasek, Danantara will take over state-owned company holdings, including Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and Bank Negara Indonesia, from the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises. Prabowo also announced that the government has saved over USD 20 billion—approximately 10% of annual spending—through efficiency measures, with funds allocated to more than 20 large-scale projects focused on nickel, bauxite, copper, and other critical minerals.

THAILAND
Thailand to appoint selection panel to identify successor to central bank governor
(10 February 2025) Thailand will appoint a selection panel in March to identify a successor to central bank governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, whose term ends in September. The panel must submit a shortlist to the finance minister at least 90 days before Sethaput’s departure. Probable candidates include BOT Deputy Governor Roong Mallikamas and former IMF economist Sutapa Amornvivat. The Finance Ministry has nominated former permanent secretary Somchai Sujjapongse as BOT chairman, a role that does not influence monetary policy but can contribute to economic discussions. Investors are monitoring whether the new governor will align with government calls for rate cuts and a weaker currency. The selection process follows the government’s unsuccessful attempt to appoint a former minister as BOT chair. The BOT last adjusted its policy rate in October 2023, cutting it to 2.25%, and will review the rate on 26 February.

VIET NAM, CHINA
Viet Nam seeks Chinese loans to partially fund USD 8.3 billion railway project 
(13 February 2025) Viet Nam plans to secure Chinese government loans to partially fund a USD 8.3 billion railway project linking Lao Cai, Hanoi, and Haiphong, Viet Nam’s Transport Minister Nguyen told parliament. The 391km railway will have a 1,435mm gauge and support train speeds of up to 160kph for both passenger and cargo transport. Construction is set to begin in 2024 and be completed by 2030. Parliament will vote on the project next week. In November 2023, lawmakers approved a separate USD 67 billion, 1,541km high-speed rail project connecting Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with operations targeted for 2035.

THE PHILIPPINES
Central bank pauses on easing cycle amidst global economic uncertainties
(13 February 2025) The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) held its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% on Thursday, pausing its easing cycle due to global economic uncertainties. The BSP’s Governor stated that the central bank remains in an easing stance and confirmed a planned 50 basis points rate cut in 2025, with a reduction possible at the April 3 meeting. The BSP will also lower banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points to 5% in the first half of the year, potentially before mid-year. Inflation remained at 2.9% in January, within BSP’s 2%-4% target, with risks to the outlook now “broadly balanced.” The decision to hold rates surprised markets, as only one of 29 economists surveyed anticipated the move. Following the announcement, the peso strengthened by 0.2% against the dollar, and the main stock index rose 1.1%. The BSP’s Governor cited increased uncertainty in global policy as a key challenge, stating that BSP is recalibrating its economic models to address these risks.

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SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN
South Korea and Japan to respond to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel imports
(12 February 2025) The U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on steel imports from 12 March, prompting responses from Japan and South Korea, key exporters. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated his government will assess the impact and seek exemption, with Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary confirming a formal request has been made. Japan’s Nippon Export and Investment Insurance will cover losses from U.S. order cancellations due to tariff costs. Japan’s Economy Minister warned of significant risks to the WTO-based trade system. In South Korea, acting President Choi Sang-mok convened a trade meeting to discuss countermeasures, with policymakers concerned about economic effects. South Korea was the fourth-largest steel exporter to the U.S. in 2023, shipping 2.8 million net tons. The Korea Development Institute forecasted 1.6% GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.0% in 2024, citing worsening trade conditions under Trump. POSCO Holdings, the country’s largest steelmaker, is consulting with the government on its response. Tariffs could expand to automobiles and semiconductors, raising further concerns. Trump indicated that security allies may negotiate exemptions.

CHINA
DeepSeek breakthrough spurs bull market in Chinese tech stocks 
(12 February 2025) The Hang Seng Tech Index has surged 25% since January 13, 2025, entering a bull market, driven by investor enthusiasm following DeepSeek’s AI model breakthrough. This performance surpasses the Nasdaq 100’s 4.4% gain and contrasts with a 0.5% decline in major U.S. tech stocks during the same period. DeepSeek’s AI model, developed with significantly less computing power than its U.S. counterparts, has prompted a global reassessment of Chinese tech companies. Notably, Alibaba’s shares rose over 6% after reports of collaboration with Apple to implement AI features in China. Other companies benefiting from this trend include Xiaomi, Baidu, and BYD, with share increases of 34%, 13%, and 40% respectively. Additionally, e-commerce platforms JD.com and Meituan have seen gains of 24% and 11%, respectively, supported by strong consumption data from the Lunar New Year holiday and expectations of significant fiscal stimulus from Beijing. The broader Hang Seng Index has also risen by 15% in the same timeframe. Data from the Stock Connect programme indicates increased activity among mainland Chinese investors, with average daily turnover in February up two-thirds from January and three times higher than February 2024. Analysts attribute this surge to advancements in large language models by Chinese internet companies and anticipate rapid adoption of AI technologies in consumer-facing applications.

NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand to ease golden visa requirements to attract wealthy investors
(10 February 2025) New Zealand is easing investment visa requirements (also known as ‘golden visas’) to attract wealthy investors, reducing residency obligations and removing the English-language requirement. Investors must commit at least NZD 5 million (USD 2.8 million) to local businesses and spend 21 days in the country over three years, down from 117 days over four years. A second option allows for NZD 10 million investment over five years with a 105-day residency requirement. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon framed the changes as part of a broader economic strategy, citing the need to encourage investment. New Zealand’s Immigration Minister noted that previous residency rules deterred investors. The Ardern government’s 2022 “Active Investor Visa” policy directed funds into businesses rather than stocks and bonds but attracted only 20 applicants, compared to previous schemes that saw 200 applicants and NZD 2.2 billion invested in two years. New Zealand’s Finance Minister stated that the Ardern-era scheme resulted in just NZD 70 million in investments since 2022. The policy shift follows Luxon’s rollback of other Labour policies, including a smoking ban and restrictions on oil and gas exploration. New Zealand’s GDP shrank 1% in Q3 2023, reinforcing the government’s focus on economic recovery.

SINGAPORE
Trump’s election victory fuels surge in cryptocurrency investments in Singapore 
(04 February 2025) Trump’s return to the White House has fuelled a surge in cryptocurrency investment among high-net-worth individuals in Singapore, with firms such as Sygnum and Independent Reserve reporting increased client interest. Sygnum  noted a sharp rise in client onboarding following Trump’s election victory, while a September survey of 400 family offices and asset managers found 57% of Singaporean respondents planned to increase crypto allocations, above the 47% global average. Tracxn data showed Southeast Asian crypto firms secured USD 325 million in funding in 2024, up 20% from 2023, despite total fintech funding in the region dropping 23% to USD 1.6 billion. Bitcoin surpassed USD 100,000 in December, driving further investment. CoinGecko reported global spot trading on centralised exchanges hit USD 17.4 trillion in 2024, more than doubling from USD 7.2 trillion in 2023. Singapore’s single-family offices rose to over 2,000 by end-2024, attracting crypto-focused wealth managers. DBS reported a 20% post-election rise in wealth client demand for crypto products. Aspen Digital found 76% of surveyed Asian family offices had invested in digital assets by late 2024, up from 58% in 2022, with allocations rising beyond 10%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore restricts crypto marketing to retail investors, but professional investors remain a key target.

SINGAPORE
Singapore secures SGD 21.9 billion in investment commitments in 2024 
(06 February 2025) Singapore secured SGD 21.9 billion (USD 16.2 billion) in investment commitments in 2024, slightly exceeding 2023 levels, according to the Economic Development Board (EDB). Fixed asset investment (FAI) commitments increased by SGD 0.8 billion to SGD 13.5 billion, while total business expenditure (TBE) per annum commitments declined by SGD 0.5 billion to SGD 8.4 billion. The manufacturing sector attracted SGD 11.1 billion in FAI, with semiconductors and biomedical manufacturing leading investments. TBE was primarily driven by spending in headquarters and professional services. The EDB warned of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks in 2025, citing protectionist policies and trade frictions as factors affecting investment decisions. The 2024 commitments are expected to generate 18,700 jobs over the next five years.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia initiates anti-dumping investigations into steel products from China, South Korea, and Viet Nam
(6 February 2025) Malaysia has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of flat-rolled steel products from China, South Korea, and Viet Nam following a petition by Malaysian steel producer CSC Steel Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of CSC Steel Holdings Bhd. The company alleges that imported galvanised iron and steel coils or sheets are being sold below market value, causing financial harm to domestic manufacturers. The Ministry of Investment, Trade, and Industry confirmed sufficient evidence to proceed under Section 20 of the Countervailing and Anti-Dumping Duties Act 1993, as published in a federal gazette on 06 February. Miti has attributed the alleged dumping to increased import volumes, declining profitability, and reduced market share for local producers. The ministry has invited responses from the governments of China, South Korea, and Viet Nam, as well as other stakeholders, who have 15 days to request participation and 30 days to submit evidence.

MALAYSIA
Emerging AI tech such as DeepSeek could reduce Malaysia’s reliance on single product
(06 February 2025) Malaysia’s Investment, Trade and Industry Minister stated that emerging AI technologies such as DeepSeek could reduce Malaysia’s reliance on a single product and position the country as a neutral hub for AI companies from both the West and China. Responding to a parliamentary question, the minister said increased AI efficiency does not diminish demand for data centres but may instead drive broader adoption, sustaining investment in data infrastructure. He noted that Malaysia’s semiconductor supply chain would be diversified, with Johor, Penang, and Kedah remaining key strategic locations for AI infrastructure. To enhance Malaysia’s data centre competitiveness, the government aims to introduce additional green investment incentives. Plans also include developing AI and digital workforce capabilities and strengthening Malaysia’s position as an AI processing hub. The minister emphasised maintaining diplomatic relations with both the US and China to secure Malaysia’s status as a neutral technology investment destination.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines’ declares food security emergency over rice inflation
(3 February 2024) The Philippines has declared a “food security emergency,” allowing the release of buffer rice stocks to stabilise prices amid rice inflation concerns. Despite a decline in overall inflation to 3.2% in 2024 from 6% in 2023, rice prices remain high, with retail prices in Metro Manila ranging from 42 to 57 pesos per kilogram. The government attributes this to profiteering by importers and wholesalers, despite record rice imports of 4.68 million tonnes in 2024. The Agricultural Tariffication Act permits the emergency declaration in cases of supply shortages or extraordinary price increases. Critics argue that the measure is temporary and will not address structural agricultural productivity issues. The government holds 300,000 tonnes of unhusked rice in reserves, covering five days of national consumption. Some experts question the necessity of the emergency, citing ample supply and upcoming harvests.

THAILAND
Headline consumer price index rose 1.32% year-on-year in January 2025 
(06 February 2025) Thailand’s headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.32% year-on-year in January 2025, up from 1.23% in December, and remained within the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) 1%-3% target range. Core CPI increased 0.83% year-on-year, aligning with forecasts. The Ministry of Commerce expects February inflation to be around 1.1%-1.2% and maintains its 2025 inflation forecast at 0.3%-1.3%, following 0.40% in 2024. The BOT Governor reaffirmed the 2025 inflation projection at 1.1% and stated the current 2.25% policy interest rate is appropriate but subject to adjustment if necessary. The BOT last changed rates with a 0.25-point cut in October before holding steady in December. The next policy review is scheduled for 26 February. The Deputy Finance Minister has expressed support for a rate cut and intends to discuss potential monetary policy easing with the BOT.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam’s trade surplus with the US reaches USD 123.5 billion in 2024
(06 February 2025) Viet Nam’s trade surplus with the US reached USD 123.5 billion in 2024, an 18% increase from the previous year, making it the third-largest US trade deficit after China and Mexico. US Census Bureau data highlights Viet Nam’s growing role as an export-driven economy, with exports accounting for 90% of GDP. The surplus expansion raises concerns about potential tariffs from Donald Trump, who has historically targeted large trade imbalances. This week, Trump imposed 10% tariffs on China, prompting retaliatory measures, and has also threatened tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Viet Nam’s Prime Minister warned that US trade protection policies pose a risk to Viet Nam’s exports. To mitigate trade tensions, Viet Nam has committed to increasing purchases of American products, including aircraft and liquefied natural gas. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Prime Minister reiterated Viet Nam’s commitment to addressing the trade imbalance and referenced ongoing efforts to maintain balanced relations between China and the US.

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JAPAN
BOJ policymaker state that rates should reach at least 1% by second half of fiscal 2025
(06 February 2025) Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Naoki Tamura stated that interest rates should reach at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025, reinforcing market expectations of a near-term rate hike. He cited rising inflationary pressures from higher raw material and labour costs and warned that keeping short-term rates below the neutral level could further push up inflation. Tamura estimated Japan’s neutral rate at no less than 1% and suggested rate hikes should be gradual and data-driven. His comments led the yen to strengthen, briefly pushing the dollar to a two-month low of 151.81 yen. The two-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 0.765%, its highest since October 2008, with markets pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike in July. While the BOJ Governor has avoided specifying a neutral rate, recent wage data suggests broad-based pay increases, supporting expectations of continued monetary tightening. The BOJ raised rates last month to 0.5%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Tamura criticised past massive stimulus under former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, stating its overall benefits were overstated and warning of potential side effects, including excessive yen depreciation.

NEW ZEALAND
Unemployment rate rises to 5.1% in Q4 2024, highest since Q3 2020
(06 February 2025) New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in Q4 2024, the highest since Q3 2020, as employment declined 0.1% from the previous quarter and 1.1% year-on-year, the steepest annual drop since 2009. The participation rate eased to 71% from 71.1%. Wage inflation slowed for the seventh consecutive quarter, with ordinary time wages for non-government workers rising 2.9% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter. Average ordinary time hourly earnings increased 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year, compared to an 8.6% peak in Q3 2022. The economy contracted 2.1% in the six months through September, weakening business confidence. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 125 basis points since August and is expected to implement a third consecutive 50-basis-point cut on 19 February, bringing the OCR to 3.75%. The central bank had forecast a 5.1% unemployment rate in November. Inflation remained at 2.2% in Q4, near the midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target range.

AUSTRALIA
Australia faces indirect risks from US tariff regime
(06 February 2025) Australia faces indirect risks from the US tariff regime, despite not being directly targeted. China imposed retaliatory export curbs on critical minerals, including tellurium and molybdenum, raising interest in Australian mining firms as alternative suppliers. A broader trade war could weaken demand for Australian iron ore if China’s economy slows. US tariffs on steel, aluminium, and copper could also disrupt Australian exports and invite cheap foreign imports, impacting local manufacturers. Energy markets may see gains as China’s tariffs hit US coal, oil, and gas, but consumer price effects remain uncertain. In agriculture, potential disruptions to US cattle imports from Canada and Mexico could raise Australian beef prices, while increased Canadian canola exports could heighten competition for Australian oilseed farmers. The Australian dollar initially dropped to pandemic-era lows but rebounded after Canada and Mexico received a 30-day tariff reprieve. ANZ expects the divergence between US and Australian monetary policy to weigh on the currency, affecting exporters, importers, and tourism. The currency remains volatile, with rapid movements driven by tariff announcements.

ASEAN
Startup funding in Southeast Asia in 2024 drops to USD 4.56 billion, a 42% year-on-year decline
(22 January 2025) Southeast Asia’s startup funding in 2024 dropped to USD 4.56 billion, a 42% decline from 2023 and just 20% of its 2021 peak of USD 23.4 billion, according to DealStreetAsia. The number of deals decreased by 10% to 633, with late-stage funding rounds experiencing a 72% drop in value to USD 1.23 billion across 21 deals, marking the first time in six years late-stage funding was eclipsed by early-stage investments. Singapore accounted for 68% of regional funding, followed by Indonesia (9.6%) and the Philippines (9.4%). Financial services, including fintech and digital banking, dominated large fundraisers, with Atome securing USD 300 million in debt financing, the largest deal of 2024. The only unicorn minted was Tyme Group, which raised USD 250 million, led by Nubank, at a USD 1.5 billion valuation. Investors cited macroeconomic pressures, higher U.S. interest rates, a strong dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties under Donald Trump’s presidency as key factors for reduced activity. Early-stage deals are expected to dominate while local investors await improved exit conditions.

THAILAND
Thailand signs trade agreement with European Free Trade Association
(23 January 2025) Thailand will sign its first trade agreement with European countries on Thursday in Davos, partnering with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), comprising Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. In 2023, EFTA imported USD 1.8 billion worth of goods and services from Thailand and exported USD 1.4 billion. Negotiations for the agreement began in 2005, stalled due to political instability in Thailand, and concluded in November 2024. The pact will reduce or eliminate customs duties on industrial and seafood products, streamline trade procedures, and enhance transparency. The Thai government aims to use the agreement to expand export markets and attract foreign investment amid trade uncertainties linked to U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration. Key Thai exports to EFTA include electronics-making machinery, mechanical appliances, vehicle components, and clock parts. Thailand’s Commerce Minister emphasised the need for structural reforms to boost high-tech exports and attract investment. Thailand is negotiating additional trade agreements with the EU, South Korea, Bhutan, the UAE, and Canada. However, the EU deal remains stalled due to differences over standards in government procurement, intellectual property, and labour protections.

SINGAPORE
Monetary Authority of Singapore eases monetary policy for first time since 2020
(24 January 2025) Singapore’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has eased monetary policy for the first time since 2020, citing heightened global trade policy uncertainties and moderating inflation. The MAS announced it would reduce the rate of the Singapore dollar’s appreciation against a basket of trading partner currencies, effectively lowering borrowing costs in Singapore’s trade-dependent economy. This decision follows December core inflation data showing a 1.8% year-on-year increase, the second consecutive month below 2%. The MAS also revised its 2025 inflation forecast to 1–2%, down from the previous 1.5–2.5% range. Singapore’s GDP growth is projected to decline from 4% in 2024 to 1–3% in 2025, reflecting external economic uncertainties. The MAS, which manages monetary policy through exchange rate adjustments rather than domestic interest rates, noted that imports account for 40% of Singapore’s consumer spending and gross trade exceeds 300% of GDP. The Singapore dollar initially weakened following the announcement but later traded at SGD 1.3526 per US dollar.

SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA
Malaysia and Singapore announce Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone to enhance economic collaboration
(21 January 2025) Malaysia and Singapore have announced the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JSSEZ) to enhance economic collaboration amid rising US-China tensions and global trade fragmentation. Modelled after China’s Shenzhen economic zone, the JSSEZ aims to add USD 26 billion annually to Malaysia’s GDP by 2030, creating 20,000 skilled jobs and attracting 50 new projects. Malaysia is offering a 5% corporate tax rate for 15 years to attract investments in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and high-end manufacturing. Johor, which has already attracted over USD 25 billion in data centre investments from companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and ByteDance, will provide land, water, energy, and labour, while Singapore will leverage its global financial and logistics networks. The initiative reflects Malaysia’s strategy to integrate more closely with Singapore and diversify economic risks from geopolitical uncertainties. Bilateral plans include collaboration on green energy, infrastructure, cross-border electricity trading, and transport links. Malaysia’s Economy Minister emphasised the zone’s potential to function as an economic unit, combining Johor’s resources with Singapore’s global connectivity.

SINGAPORE
Private residential property prices rise by 2.3% in Q4 2024 
(24 January 2025) Singapore’s private residential property prices rose by 2.3% in Q4 2024, matching earlier estimates, with a full-year increase of 3.9%, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). Developers sold 6,469 new units in 2024, slightly up from 6,421 in 2023, driven by new project launches and lower mortgage rates, as the three-month Singapore overnight rate averaged 2.92%, the lowest since November 2022. Rents for private homes remained flat in Q4, contributing to a 1.9% annual decline, the first drop since 2020. Prices for second-hand public housing apartments increased for the 19th consecutive quarter, with a 9.7% annual rise, the highest since 2022. Strong demand at private residential launches in early 2025 has prompted analysts, including those from Citigroup and Barclays, to predict potential new cooling measures, possibly announced during the annual budget on 18 February. Approximately 27,300 private units are expected to be completed between 2025 and 2027, but supply constraints continue to sustain elevated prices. Singapore’s National Development Minister indicated the government is open to new curbs but emphasised patience to allow existing measures to take effect.

INDONESIA
Indonesia considering reducing nickel ore production quotas to stabilize prices
(21 January 2025) Indonesia is considering reducing nickel ore production quotas to stabilise prices amidst a global surplus, according to its Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Nickel prices have declined by approximately 40% over the past two years to around USD 16,000 per tonne, pressuring domestic producers and causing mine closures outside Indonesia. While specific figures were not disclosed, media reports suggest the 2024 quota could be set at 150-200 million tonnes, down from an estimated 270 million tonnes in 2023. Indonesia, which accounts for 57% of global refined nickel production, produced 2.02 million tonnes last year, with output expected to rise to 2.38 million tonnes in 2024, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI). Analysts warn that significant quota cuts could lead to domestic ore shortages, increased smelter costs, and greater reliance on imports, particularly from the Philippines. Macquarie estimates last year’s global nickel market surplus at 200,000 tonnes, predicting a smaller 60,000-tonne surplus in 2024, partly due to anticipated quota reductions and recovering EV battery demand. A sharp quota cut to 150 million tonnes would remove 35% of global supply, but such a drastic move is considered unlikely due to its potential impact on government revenue and the economy.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam’s economy projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025 
(23 January 2025) Viet Nam’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), aligning with Viet Nam’s target range of 6.5% to 8% but below the 7.09% growth recorded in 2024. Inflation is forecast to reach 3.5%, within the target range of 3% to 4.5%. Vietnam’s growth is attributed to strong export performance, with 2024 exports rising 14.3% to USD 405.53 billion and imports increasing 16.7% to USD 380.76 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of nearly USD 25 billion for the ninth consecutive year. Key growth drivers include diversified trade relationships, competitive labour markets, and investments in high-tech manufacturing and digitalisation. Vietnam’s growth outpaces regional peers such as the Philippines (6.3%), Indonesia (5.1%), and Thailand (3.1%), with Asean+3 regional growth forecast at 4.2% for 2025. However, the Plus-3 economies (China, Japan, South Korea) face slower growth of 4.0% due to rising trade barriers, including higher US tariffs on Chinese goods, which could reduce Asean’s growth by 0.1 percentage points. AMRO highlighted the risks of escalating trade tensions and their impact on external demand in the region.

RCEP Monitor

SOUTH KOREA
Financial Services Commission announces stricter delisting rules to improve stock market quality
(21 January 2025) South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced stricter delisting rules to improve stock market quality. The market capitalisation requirement for Kospi-listed companies will rise from KRW 5 billion to KRW 20 billion in 2026 and KRW 50 billion in 2028, while the improvement period following a delisting warning will be halved. Firms with a market cap under KRW 100 billion will face increased revenue thresholds, reaching at least KRW 30 billion by 2029. IPO regulations will also tighten, requiring 40% of shares to be allocated to institutional investors with lock-up periods by 2026. Additional restrictions on institutional investor participation in book-building will take effect in April and July 2025. Currently, 62 Kospi and 137 Kosdaq firms, representing 7%-8% of each market, fail to meet the new standards. Over the past decade, no firms were delisted under the existing thresholds, which the FSC criticised for inefficiencies in capital allocation and eroding market trust. Despite increased listings, South Korea’s MSCI index gains remain low at 3.8% compared to over 65% growth in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan, highlighting the need for these structural reforms.

AUSTRALIA
IPOs start slowly in 2025 due to concerns over US protectionist policies
(22 January 2025) Australian initial public offerings (IPOs) have started slowly in 2025, with only four companies planning to list on the ASX in the first quarter, according to HLB Mann Judd. This follows USD 2.4 billion raised in IPOs in 2024, exceeding the combined totals of 2022 and 2023 but below the USD 5.9 billion annual average recorded before 2020. A corporate advisory partner at HLB attributed the sluggish start to concerns over US protectionist policies under the Trump administration, particularly tariffs and their impact on electric vehicle demand and commodity prices. These policies are expected to have a greater influence on market activity than Australia’s federal election in May. The Chinese economy’s vulnerability to US tariffs is also cited as a factor potentially affecting Australian IPO activity. Prospective issuers are reportedly cautious, with some deals in 2024 scrapped for not meeting listing requirements. HLB anticipates limited improvement in IPO activity until later in the year. 

JAPAN
Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5% 
(23 January 2025) The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5% on 24 January, marking its highest level since 2008 and the third increase within a year, as inflation remains above the 2% target for 33 consecutive months. Core consumer prices rose 3% in December, while base pay has reached post-1990s highs, with 2023’s spring labour negotiations producing the largest wage increases since 1991. The central bank’s monetary tightening aims to embed inflation, address inefficiencies, and stimulate productive economic growth, though inflation has outpaced wage growth, straining household budgets. Japan’s gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, has grown only 25% since 1994, with the IMF projecting 1.1% growth in 2025 following a 0.2% contraction in 2024. While private consumption has recovered in recent quarters, spending remains weak after prolonged stagnation.