Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

ASEAN
Southeast Asia accounts for 12% of global branded residence projects in 2024 
(11 March 2025) Thailand leads Southeast Asia’s branded residences market, with 12,656 units valued at USD 6.2 billion, while foreign interest—particularly from Chinese buyers—has driven sales. Branded residences are typically luxury residences licensed by global hotel brands and built by local developers. Savills GRDC data indicates that Southeast Asia accounted for 12% of global branded residence projects in 2024, with industry experts forecasting the region will rival North America’s 25% share within a decade. Luxury brands such as Four Seasons, Aman, and Porsche are expanding in the region, with Porsche’s 22-unit Bangkok tower set to open in 2028, featuring units priced between USD 15 million and USD 40 million. Nobu Hospitality and Mandarin Oriental are also investing, with projects in Viet Nam and Indonesia. Rising demand is driven by an increase in high-net-worth individuals, with Knight Frank projecting a 38.3% rise in Asians with at least USD 30 million by 2028. However, concerns exist over market sustainability, with some developers making unsustainable return promises of 10%–15% annually. Industry players warn of risks from mismanaged projects and sudden brand withdrawals, as seen in Phuket and Bali.

THAILAND
Government aims to exceed 3% target for 2025 through THB 150 billion stimulus package
(10 March 2025) Thailand’s government aims to exceed its 3% economic growth target for 2025 with a THB 150 billion stimulus package set to be implemented by end-Q3. The package will fund several stimulus measures including the next phase of the THB 450 billion “digital wallet” scheme. The programme, which provides THB 10,000 per person, will expand in Q2 to 2.7 million individuals aged 16–20 via a smartphone application to improve spending control. Fourth-quarter 2024 GDP growth was 3.2%, below expectations, contributing to a full-year expansion of 2.5%. The Bank of Thailand reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% on 26 February, responding to weak growth and global trade risks, though it signalled limited scope for further cuts. The government seeks over 4% export growth, with Thailand’s Finance Minister suggesting a weaker baht could support this goal. The central bank now forecasts GDP growth slightly above 2.5% for 2025, revising down from its 2.9% December estimate. The government remains focused on increasing domestic consumption after previous cash handouts were partially used for loan repayments.

THAILAND
Thai Baht gains approximately 1.2% against US Dollar in 2025 driven by gold trading 
(11 March 2025) The Thai baht has gained approximately 1.2% against the US dollar this year, driven by Thailand’s role as a gold-trading hub amid record-high gold prices. The baht’s five-year correlation coefficient with gold stands at 0.57, indicating a stronger link compared to most emerging market currencies. However, strategists expect downward pressure due to Thailand’s 2% policy rate, which is 250 basis points below the upper bound of the US federal funds rate, and potential reciprocal tariffs from the US. The baht declined 0.3% to 33.89 per dollar on Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a depreciation to 35 in three months and 36 within a year. Bank of America also sees downside risks. RBC Capital Markets projects the baht trading within a range of 32 to 37 this year, depending on Thailand’s economic outlook and exposure to tariffs. 

INDONESIA
Government mulling increasing royalty rates on mining sector
(10 March 2025) Indonesia’s government is considering increasing royalty rates on coal, nickel, copper, and other minerals as part of a broader fiscal adjustment to support President Prabowo Subianto’s spending plans. The proposal, outlined in a public consultation document, includes progressive royalty rates for nickel and copper based on price levels. Nickel ore royalties would rise from a flat 10% to a range of 14%–19%, while copper ore royalties would increase from 5% to 10%–17%, with similar hikes for copper concentrate and copper cathode. Coal royalties would rise by one percentage point to a maximum of 13.5% when benchmark prices reach at least USD 90 per metric ton. The government already applies a progressive coal royalty system, with rates starting at 8% for lower-calorific coal when prices exceed USD 90 per ton. Additional royalty increases are proposed for nickel matte, ferronickel, tin, gold, silver, and platinum.

INDONESIA
Indonesia to construct multiple oil refineries across several islands
(11 March 2025) Indonesia will construct multiple oil refineries across several islands, including Kalimantan and Sulawesi, with a total capacity of one million barrels per day (bpd), doubling the previously planned 500,000 bpd refinery, according to Indonesia’s Energy Minister. The decision follows a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto and aligns with the government’s strategy to accelerate 21 resource-processing projects worth USD 40 billion. Indonesia currently imports approximately one million bpd of crude oil and fuel to meet domestic demand. In addition to refining capacity expansion, the government plans to build oil storage facilities with a total capacity of one million barrels to enhance energy security.

VIET NAM, SINGAPORE
Singapore and Viet Nam elevate relationship to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP)
(13 March 2025) Singapore and Viet Nam have elevated their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), marking Singapore’s first such agreement with an ASEAN member state. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated the CSP will drive digital and green growth while supporting the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement and ASEAN Power Grid. Several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were signed, including one between Singapore’s Digital Development and Information Ministry and Viet Nam’s Public Security Ministry on government data policies and cross-border data flows. An agreement between Singapore’s Home Affairs Ministry and Viet Nam’s Public Security Ministry was also enhanced to address transnational crime, including drug trafficking, cybercrime, and online scams. The leaders endorsed a joint report on offshore wind power trade, facilitating regulatory approvals for Sembcorp and PetroVietnam’s wind energy project. Financial cooperation will deepen through upgraded MoUs between the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the State Bank of Viet Nam, promoting payment connectivity and FinTech operations. MAS and Viet Nam’s State Securities Commission will also collaborate on regulatory frameworks for capital markets and digital assets. In a joint statement, the leaders reaffirmed ASEAN’s position on the South China Sea, emphasising peace, security, and freedom of navigation.

SINGAPORE
Money-market rates decline despite central bank’s easing monetary policy
(14 March 2025) Singapore’s money-market rates have declined despite the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) easing monetary policy in January for the first time in nearly five years. The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) dropped to 2.08% this week, the lowest since 2022, due to slower lending, foreign inflows into fixed deposits, and a resilient currency. The expected rise in interest rates following policy easing has not materialised, partly because the Singapore dollar has outperformed most Asian currencies. The loan-to-deposit ratio declined from 70.5% at the end of 2023 to 68.2% in January. The Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. attributed the liquidity surplus to investor expectations of currency appreciation despite MAS’s earlier policy shift. MAS has warned of downside risks to growth, but authorities may resist a prolonged drop in interest rates to avoid undermining property market cooling measures. Meanwhile, improved liquidity has supported strong demand for sovereign bonds, with the 26 February sale of 2035 bonds achieving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.03, the highest for a 10-year tenor since July 2022.