Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s upcoming general election to focus on cost of living and job security 
(15 April 2025) Singapore’s general election on 03 May 2025 will be the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who succeeded Lee Hsien Loong in May 2024. The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which has governed since 1965, is aiming to recover from its 2020 result of 61.2% of votes, down from 69.9% in 2015. The election will be contested across 97 parliamentary seats, with key voter concerns centring on cost of living (34% of respondents in a January Blackbox Research survey), job security, and economic resilience amid rising U.S. tariffs. Wong’s February budget included SGD 2 billion in household and wage support, viewed by analysts as election groundwork. The Workers’ Party, led by Pritam Singh—recently convicted for lying to a parliamentary committee—seeks to expand beyond its 10 current seats, while the Progress Singapore Party, founded by former PAP MP Tan Cheng Bock, campaigns on affordability and tax cuts. Eugene Tan of Singapore Management University noted rising appetite for opposition among younger voters and framed the vote as a key inflection point for Wong’s political future.

THAILAND, MALAYSIA
Thailand and Malaysia confirm collective ASEAN response to US tariffs
(17 April 2025) Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra confirmed a joint commitment to address U.S. tariffs at the ASEAN level through a fair and sustainable negotiation framework, following bilateral discussions held during Anwar’s two-day visit to Thailand. The leaders also reviewed bilateral economic initiatives, including advancing cross-border economic cooperation in northern Malaysia and southern Thailand. Bilateral trade surpassed USD 25 billion in 2023, with a target of USD 30 billion by 2027. A memorandum of understanding was signed concerning the construction agreement for the Rantau Panjang–Sungai Golok Bridge, which is on schedule. Discussions also covered peace in Thailand’s southern provinces, with Malaysia agreeing to cooperate on economic development projects such as halal food production and the Rubber City project. Paetongtarn emphasised ASEAN’s potential to act collectively on tariff-related issues, while acknowledging that each member state would continue with individual strategies.

ASEAN
Trump’s tariff threats prompts renewed calls to strengthen intra-ASEAN trade 
(15 April 2025) U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of 33% average tariffs on ASEAN nations has exposed the region’s dependence on global markets and prompted renewed calls to strengthen intra-ASEAN trade, which accounted for only 21% of total trade in 2024, according to ASEANstats. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, chairing ASEAN in 2025, urged regional economic self-reliance, but structural barriers persist, including nontariff measures, weak demand, and limited political coordination. Fitch Solutions estimates the tariffs could reduce Viet Nam’s GDP by up to 3 percentage points and Singapore’s by 1 point, with regional losses averaging 1.5 points. Despite tariff eliminations under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, the number of non-tariff measures more than doubled to 9,494 between 2008 and 2020, led by Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. ASEAN Business Advisory Council chair Nazir Razak highlighted the bloc’s lack of enforcement mechanisms and suggested intra-bloc trade may be structurally capped at 30%. Analysts warn of over-reliance on China, whose exports to ASEAN are growing, potentially worsening trade asymmetries, while compliance burdens may rise for firms to prove no Chinese links amid 145% U.S. tariffs on China. Industry voices stress the need for deeper regional integration through harmonised standards and investment in value chains. The ASEAN Economic Community and a proposed ASEAN Business Entity badge aim to address mobility barriers. The Philippines and Viet Nam are positioning to attract tariff-displaced investment, but relocation of capital-intensive manufacturing may take two to five years.

THE PHILIPPINES, UNITED STATES
Filipino officials claim country is less exposed to trade shocks
(14 April 2025) A Philippine delegation led by Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Frederick Go will visit the United States in May to address potential U.S. tariffs on Filipino exports, with the administration framing the trip as diplomatic engagement rather than confrontation. The Economic Planning Secretary stated that the Philippines’ relatively small exposure to global trade, compared to its Asian neighbours, limits its vulnerability to external shocks. However, he stressed the urgency of enhancing export performance and investment conditions to benefit from trade diversion resulting from U.S. tariff measures. The Philippines is seeking a free trade agreement with the U.S. to preserve market access, building on existing pacts with South Korea and Japan. Balisacan affirmed that economic targets remain unchanged, citing resilient domestic consumption, which accounts for approximately 75% of GDP, as a growth driver. The government maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 6.0% to 8.0%, with Balisacan calling the lower end of the range still achievable despite global uncertainty.

INDONESIA
Trade surplus projected to have narrowed to USD 2.64 billion in March 2025  
(17 April 2025) Indonesia’s trade surplus is projected to have narrowed to USD 2.64 billion in March from USD 3.12 billion in February, according to the median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Reuters. The expected decline is attributed to a 3.4% year-on-year contraction in exports, following 14.05% growth in February, and a 6.6% increase in imports, up from 2.3% the previous month, coinciding with higher domestic consumption during the Eid-al-Fitr festival. While Indonesia has maintained a monthly trade surplus since mid-2020, economists have cautioned that the current 90-day pause on U.S. tariffs may only temporarily delay negative impacts on Indonesian exports.

THAILAND
Bank of Thailand preparing to revise its GDP forecast downwards due to US tariffs
(17 April 2025) Thailand’s central bank is preparing to revise its GDP forecast downward at the 30 April Monetary Policy Committee meeting due to the expected impact of US tariffs, according to Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul. Growth is now projected to fall below the previously signalled 2.5%, with estimates indicating a potential reduction of up to one percentage point if the 36% levy is maintained beyond the current 90-day pause. The Bank of Thailand’s February 25-basis point rate cut had partially accounted for tariff effects; however, a further reassessment is planned, including inflation projections, which may ease further due to declining global commodity prices. The central bank, which has reduced rates by 50 basis points since October, is coordinating closely with the Finance Ministry, with Thailand’s Finance Minister set to lead negotiations in the US beginning 23 April. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has proposed increasing imports of US commodities and lowering import restrictions to mitigate the trade impact. Financial markets have experienced high volatility following the 02 April tariff announcement, with the baht fluctuating between a five-month low and a six-month high, and the stock index briefly hitting a five-year low. The BOT has intervened to manage excessive baht volatility but views currency movements as consistent with regional trends. Foreign exchange reserves stand at USD 247 billion and are considered well diversified despite rising US Treasury yields.

MALAYSIA
GDP grows 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, below 4.8% median forecast
(18 April 2025) Malaysia’s GDP grew 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, below the 4.8% median forecast and marking the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth, driven by weaker performance in manufacturing, construction, and a 4.9% contraction in mining and quarrying. The services sector remained the primary contributor to growth, expanding 5.2%, though also at a slower pace than the previous quarter. Advance estimates from the statistics department indicated that seasonal factors, including Chinese New Year, Ramadan preparations, and the school reopening, supported activity. Employment remained strong, with the unemployment rate stable at 3.1%. The government is reviewing its 4.5%-5.5% growth forecast for 2025 amid uncertainty from global trade tensions, particularly following a 24% US import tariff, later reduced to 10% for 90 days. Bank Negara Malaysia is maintaining its policy stance for now, with the last rate move being a 25-basis-point hike in May 2023, but analysts suggest easing may be considered if growth drops towards 3% in H2. Malaysia’s Investment Minister stated that Malaysia is engaging with the US to reduce tariffs and expand exemptions. Regional peers, including the Philippines and Singapore, have already eased monetary policy in response to global trade risks. Malaysia recorded 5.1% GDP growth in 2024, in line with official forecasts and above 2023 levels.

RCEP Monitor

CHINA
GDP grows 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing 5.2% forecast  
(16 April 2025) China’s GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, surpassing the 5.2% forecast, driven by stronger-than-expected March data including a 7.7% rise in industrial output and a 5.9% increase in retail sales. The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the growth partly to front-loaded exports in anticipation of US tariffs. However, the economic outlook has worsened following President Trump’s imposition of 145% tariffs, which are expected to significantly reduce US-China trade from April onwards. Economists warned of a rapid downturn without urgent stimulus, citing early signs of falling US-bound shipments. The government has acknowledged external risks and weak domestic demand, and released a 48-point plan in March to boost consumption in services sectors such as catering, healthcare, entertainment and tourism. A Politburo meeting later in April may signal the scale and timing of further stimulus. Despite early momentum, economists at UBS, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Societe Generale have revised 2025 growth forecasts to around 4%, below the official 5% target. Measures under consideration include interest rate cuts, reserve ratio reductions, and trillions of yuan in new fiscal borrowing. Markets reacted negatively to tariff concerns, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks falling up to 2.9%. No high-level US-China talks have occurred, and President Xi has not responded to Trump’s requests for negotiations.

CHINA
New-home prices in China’s 70 major cities decline 0.08% in March from February  
(16 April 2025) New-home prices in China’s 70 major cities declined 0.08% in March from February, easing from a 0.14% fall the prior month, while existing-home prices fell 0.23%, the smallest drop in nearly two years, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. Year-on-year, new-home prices declined 4.99% and existing-home prices 7.25%, both moderating from February. Residential sales by value fell 0.4% year-on-year in March, but private data indicated an 11% decline in new home sales by China’s 100 largest developers. Property investment dropped 9.9% in Q1. The deputy NBS head confirmed policy effects were beginning to stabilise the housing market, though overall demand remains subdued. Analysts expect further support measures in Q2 amid escalating external risks, notably the 145% US tariffs imposed by President Trump. Goldman Sachs estimated 20 million Chinese workers—around 3% of the labour force—may be exposed to US-bound exports, raising concerns of broader economic strain.

JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA
Japanese and Korean steel exports to US decline following US tariffs  
(17 April 2025) Japanese steel exports to the United States declined 16.6% year-on-year in March, while South Korea’s fell 24%, following the 25% U.S. tariffs imposed on March 12. Total Japanese iron and steel exports dropped 8.2% during the month, compared to a 14.1% decline for South Korea, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Despite this, Japan’s overall exports rose 3.9%, marking six consecutive months of growth, attributed to front-loading ahead of U.S. tariff enforcement. Vehicle exports increased 7.2%, and chipmaking equipment exports rose 4.2%. A 10% baseline tariff on Japanese goods took effect on 05 April, while an additional 24% ‘reciprocal tariff’ announced in early April is on hold for 90 days. Separately, a 25% U.S. tariff on imported vehicles from 03 April targets Japan, which supplied 13% of U.S. vehicle imports in 2024. Japan’s imports increased 2.0% year-on-year in March, resulting in a trade surplus of JPY 544 billion (USD 3.8 billion). Moody’s Analytics noted that front-loaded exports may mask underlying weakness, with expectations for significant declines ahead due to worsening global trade conditions.