The Road to ASEAN Integration: 7 lessons learned from public policy advocacy and public sector engagement

Originally published in TheEdge Malaysia, 28 October – 3 November 2019 edition.

Policy advocacy is hard work, in that it takes an excruciatingly lengthy engagement process to find common grounds with the rightful policy stakeholders to convince a point. It requires both top-down and bottom-up approaches to move the needle, if at all. Contrary to popular belief – political will – is not the only barrier hindering the process.
 

 

The Before: Guerilla Style

Since 2013, to better reflect private sector’s concerns and identify ASEAN sectoral integration gaps, CARI had published numerous papers/reports/commentaries, organised numerous ASEAN-themed policy roundtable discussions, issued regular public policy calls, led multiple trade delegations to ASEAN countries to engage with policymakers, even all the way to the level of heads of government.

Not until the establishment of the Enterprise and Stakeholder Engagement Division (ESED) at the ASEAN Secretariat in 2016, many of these policy advocacy efforts, although not unique to CARI, were akin to “shots in the dark” or “guerilla-style” in nature. More often than not, the private sector’s recommendations ended up in the blackhole of unknown. Unlike our counterparts from the EU, the US and Japan, ASEAN businesses and entities face resource-scarcity in terms of time, funding, technical capability and suffer significant disadvantages in being referred through the policy channels in ASEAN.

The After: Guided Approach

In recent years, I have been privileged to participate in and present at official ASEAN meetings in my capacity as the Deputy Executive Director of ASEAN Business Advisory Council, facilitated by ESED. This year alone, at the working lunch with ASEAN Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Chiang Rai; working dinner at the 51st ASEAN Economic Ministers in Bangkok, and Dialogue with ASEAN Leaders/Heads of Government, to name a few.

In these meetings, consolidated policy recommendations from various business associations, including those from ASEAN’s dialogue partners, were tabled in the hopes of benefiting ASEAN as a whole, especially the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). While these interface meetings were valuable, they are at best “ceremonial”. Follow-ups are often slow to none, and less than effective. The quality of engagement has huge room to improve, to say the least.

From making voluntary policy calls on the sidelines, to finally having a front-row seat at the consultation tables, there are at least seven “simple” observations I wish to have been better informed before.


1) Come as a collective

ASEAN subscribes to the principle of impartiality and strives to avoid being considered biased towards any member states or private entities. To ensure success, policy recommendations representing collective interests are prioritised and should be channelled through business organisations, chambers and councils.

In 2017, in order to better reduce understanding gaps between the public and private sector, ASEAN has released the Rules of Procedures for Private Sector Engagement under the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Only those entities “associated with ASEAN and listed in Annex 2 of the ASEAN Charter entities; or as suggested by ASEAN sectoral bodies” are acceptable. Approaching ASEAN as a single private sector entity is likely to be a futile effort.


2) Propose actionable policies

While the private sector criticises the public sector for being slow to respond, ASEAN officials lament that the private sector’s recommendations lack structured details, tend to be broad and vague. The officials regard any recommendations “to promote/to encourage” high-level ideals without action points to be impractical. Proposals such as “promoting paperless customs procedures, modernisation of payment and settlement systems, accelerate migration to electronic payment” are considered less specific.

Applying the S.M.A.R.T. framework to the policy recommendations — specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time bound — may be a good starting point. Making the proposals with targeted policy stakeholder groups in mind as the audience, as well as researching what ASEAN is already working on makes the engagement more effective.


3) Construct compelling concept notes

Structuring a proposal to be “actionable” may be easy, the private sector would also need to articulate the idea and how the proposal can be executed in the form of “concept notes”.

A meaningful concept note requires the public sector’s input. Yet how to arrive at that is a challenging matter due to the absence of institutionalised and frequent engagements with the relevant ASEAN bodies, even though it is prescribed in the AEC 2025 Blueprint. The invitation to the consultation meetings is at the discretion of the chair of meetings and worse, the meetings are few and far in between, ranging from once a year to probably a few times a year. Thus causing the back-and-forth feedback loop to be a very, very long haul.

To short-circuit this lengthy process, engaging with the ASEAN Secretariat (ASEC) on how best to present the case with a concept note that details practical implementation milestones would go well with ASEAN officials.


4) Demonstrate positive impact

To increase the success rate, the private sector would also need to demonstrate potential positive gain or impact that comes with the proposed recommendation, with empirical evidence or quantitative projections. This serves to provide justification to various policy stakeholders of ASEAN, especially domestic jurisdiction. For example, the private sector was required to demonstrate that fast-tracking customs clearance for the proposed Low-Value Shipment Programme by ASEAN BAC Joint Business Councils would not be revenue negative for customs, as opposed to doing away with the de minimis.

But the requirement to support the recommendation with an in-depth study is clearly beyond the depth of the MSMEs of ASEAN. This reality only means that foreign companies, often larger in size and are better resourced, would stand a better chance of lobbying in favour of the interests of extra-ASEAN companies.


5) Pursue a balanced strategy mix

Top-down or bottom-up?
While the heads of government often offer supportive gestures towards private sector suggestions, they have to cascade policy recommendations downward for further consideration and possible implementation.

However, caught in the internal deliverables, the officials are the least incentivised to advance any private sector policy proposal unless those that are in-line with their KPIs, resulting in bureaucratic inertia. On the other hand, some officials believe their role is to carry out ministerial instructions and therefore wield little policy influence. These conflicting dynamics send very confusing signals to the private sector as to whether a bottom-up or top-down approach would be most effective.

Bilateral or multilateral?
Similarly, while the private sector looks to ASEC to be the central party to connect with ASEAN policy bodies instead of reaching out to ten ASEAN jurisdictions, ASEC is after all not empowered to propose or implement any legislation, unlike the European Commission. Therefore, reaching out to ASEC is just one part of the effort; the private sector also needs to work through the national policy channels so that when the relevant bodies that form a particular ASEAN working group meet, some form of pre-knowledge has already been socialised.

Taking cues from the EU- and US-ASEAN Business Councils, who are extremely effective in all policy channels, the real work starts from various policy pipelines. A combination of top-down endorsement, and bottom-up buy-in; as well as having bilateral and multilateral support would be a good strategy mix for effective public-private engagement.


6) Gather sufficient industry demand

It would be too careless to blame “policy hurdles” alone as the culprit for the slow progress of integration. The private sector sometimes frustrates policy facilitation effort. After all the hard work being carried out, businesses cited “business decision” against utilising certain policy support. That is the very reason policymakers are insisting to have “significant market demand” as a prerequisite to pursuing regulatory or policy facilitation to avoid low utilisation of any new mechanism before launching into negotiations with ASEAN members.

This is a valid consideration as even with seemingly aligned policy direction between the private and public sector does not guarantee successful implementation. Cases in point, the now-defunct ASEAN Trading Link, the new local currency settlement arrangement among Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the Qualified ASEAN Banks all suffer from some form of low business interest.

The private sector is encouraged to gather reasonable industry demand so that it provides sufficient motivation for the public sector to pursue the necessary policy liberalisation.


7) Build technical capacity

The MSMEs constitute 97-99% of ASEAN businesses in numbers but are unequipped to engage with ASEAN policy bodies for advocacy. Apart from funding, the lack of technical capability is one handicap area that sets these businesses back.

Many of ASEAN businesses also see little value in engaging in policy consultation and are generally less keen to attend consultation meetings due to potential business opportunity cost. On the contrary, the EU and US businesses not only usually turn up in full force when such consultation opportunities arise, but they will also come prepared with effective presentations.

National chambers, business councils in ASEAN will have to begin to see the value in policy advocacy and be willing to invest in improving technical capacity to better represent MSMEs.


Conclusion

The setting up of the Enterprise and Stakeholder Engagement Division (ESED) has demonstrated its effectiveness in connecting the private sector with the ASEAN policy bodies. The process of engagement is increasingly structured and the quality is improving, most noticeable in the trade facilitation track, albeit without concrete results being achieved as yet.

The engagement process, however, must have better clarity and transparency, and most importantly the quality, depth and results of engagement should be the ultimate goals of these exercises than merely ticking the boxes.

CARI Captures 427: The new Indonesian cabinet’s key economic appointments


 

INDONESIA

The new Indonesian cabinet’s key economic appointments
(23 October 2019) President Joko Widodo’s second term at the helm of Southeast Asia’s largest economy will be driven by what he calls his “Onward Indonesia Cabinet” which, aside from incumbent finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and coordinating minister for maritime affairs, natural resources and investment Luhut Pandjaitan, includes a slew of new appointments on the economic front. This includes a new coordinating minister for economic affairs in Airlangga Hartarto, a new trade minister in Agus Suparmanto, a new state-owned enterprises minister in Erick Thohir, and a new investment coordinating board head in Bahlil Lahadalia.

INDONESIA

President Joko Widodo’s envisions developed Indonesia by 2045
(21 October 2019) President Joko Widodo’s started his second term by touting his “dream” to make Indonesia a developed country by 2045. According to a local media outlet, a high-income Indonesia would also make it one of the world’s five largest economies, and President Joko plans to achieve this by (i) avoiding the middle-income trap, (ii) raising GDP per capita by over five times to 320 million rupiah per year, or US$22,700 per year, (iii) grow GDP by seven times to US$7 trillion, and (iv) lower the poverty rate from the current 9.41% to nearly 0%.

BRUNEI

Brunei’s economy rebounds 6.7% in second quarter of 2019
(22 October 2019) Brunei’s GDP grew by 6.7% at US$4.74 billion in the second quarter of the year, an improvement from the 0.5% dip it saw in the previous quarter. The rebound — which also represents its biggest improvement in quarterly growth for the first time since 2016 — was largely due to growth in the oil and gas industry, which expanded by 8.7% to US$2.91 billion. The country’s non-oil and gas sector also grew by 4.1%, fuelled largely by the 21.8% growth in the financial sector.

THAILAND

Thai exports post a 1.39% dip
(22 October 2019) Thailand’s exports continued on a downtrend trend in September with a 1.39% year-on-year dip but recovered from August’s 4.0% plunge, fuelled largely by higher exports of industrial goods such as electrical goods and parts, agricultural products, as well as automobiles and parts. Meanwhile, imports in September also declined by 4.24% on the year. Thailand’s exports in the first nine months of 2019 fell by 2.11% on the year, while its imports also fell by 3.68% on the year during the same period.

THAILAND, MYANMAR

Thailand, Myanmar to use baht, kyat for cross-border transactions
(23 October 2019) The central bank governors of Thailand Veerathai Santiprabhob and his Myanmar counterpart U Kyaw Kyaw Maung inked two memoranda of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meeting held in the US on October 18. The first MoU seeks to promote the use of the native currencies of each country when conducting border trade, as opposed to using other currencies such as the US dollar for payments through banks. The second MoU aims to promote bilateral cooperation in the areas of financial innovation and payment services.

CAMBODIA

Construction sector sees US$6.5 billion in investment inflows for the first nine months of 2019
(18 October 2019) Investment in Cambodia’s construction sector saw a 34.7% year-on-year spike from January to September this year totalling US$6.5 billion, according to a recent government report. The report also found that 3,433 construction projects which will span over 13 million square metres were approved during the period, up from the 2,541 projects worth US$4.8 billion that were approved last year. With this, over 46,991 construction projects worth over US$48 billion have been approved since the year 2000, with the most investments coming from China.

INDONESIA

State-owned utility company partners with 20 brands to push electric vehicle adoption
(21 October 2019) Indonesian state-owned utility company PLN announced this week that it has signed MoUs with 20 companies to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. According to PLN acting chief Sripeni Inten Cahyani, the 20 companies can be split into three groups: firstly, companies such as Go-Jek, Grab and Pertamina which will help install electric charging stations; secondly, automakers such as Mitsubishi and BMW which will help develop electric vehicles; and thirdly, state-owned electronics manufacturer LEN which will help develop a home-grown charging station.

THAILAND

Thailand to colour palm oil biodiesel to combat smuggling
(22 October 2019) Thailand will combat the issue of palm oil being smuggled from neighbouring countries by colourising its home-grown purified biodiesel before it is blended with diesel oil. According to energy minister Sontirat Sontijirawong, the colourisation will be rolled out in line with the government’s plan to adopt B10 as the main diesel option by early 2020. Once implemented, B10 biodiesel is expected to absorb 2.2 million tonnes of crude palm oil surplus annually or two-thirds of the current supply. The remaining one-third is typically absorbed by the food sector.

MALAYSIA-INDIA

India traders urged not to import Malaysian palm oil
(21 October 2019) A Mumbai-based Indian oilseed extractors trade association called on its members to cease importing palm oil from Malaysia as “a mark of solidarity” with the Indian government who “has not taken kindly” to Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s remarks on the Kashmir conflict that were made at the UN General Assembly. India is presently the world’s top vegetable oil buyer, importing primarily from Indonesia and Malaysia. The country’s palm oil imports from Malaysia were worth US$1.65 billion in 2018.

SINGAPORE-US

Singapore, US sign agreement to boost bilateral cooperation
(19 October 2019) Singapore and the US inked an agreement last week on the sidelines of the G20 Finance Ministers’ and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting to bolster cooperation in infrastructure financing. According to a Singapore finance ministry statement, the agreement will help enhance knowledge sharing and promote infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia. According to Singapore second finance minister Indranee Rajah, 60% of infrastructure finance transactions within ASEAN are currently arranged by banks based in Singapore.

Mekong Monitor: Laos to conduct feasibility study on Laos-Vietnam railway line


Photo credit: VNA

 

TRADE, ECONOMY, AND INVESTMENT

 

LAOS, VIETNAM

Laos to conduct feasibility study on Laos-Vietnam railway line
(18 October 2019) Laos’ Ministry of Planning and Investment inked a memorandum of understanding with the Petroleum Trading Lao Public Company last week to conduct a feasibility study on the proposed Laos-Vietnam railway. The 240-270 kilometre rail link would start from Laos’ Khammuan province, run through their shared border, and end in Vietnam’s Ha Tinh province where it will connect with the Vung Ang seaport. The survey and design of the project are expected to take up to 12 months, and if approved, construction is expected to start at the end of 2021 and be completed by 2024.
Read more>>

CAMBODIA, VIETNAM

Cambodian PM pushes for expressway link with Vietnam
(16 October 2019) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen called on public and private stakeholders from Cambodia and Vietnam to help improve infrastructure connectivity between the countries, especially through the proposed Phnom Penh-Bavet expressway project. According to one media report, the feasibility study on the 160-kilometre expressway — which put the projected cost at US$3.8 billion — was completed in late 2018, but construction has yet to begin. Ultimately, the expressway is expected to be linked to another expressway from Vietnam that stretches from Moc Bai to Ho Chi Minh City. Bilateral trade between both countries reached US$4.7 billion in 2018, a 24% increase y-o-y from 2017.
Read more>>

MYANMAR, THAILAND

Thailand’s PTT to open first petrol station in Myanmar in 2020
(20 October 2019) Thailand’s PTT Oil and Retail Business (PTTOR) announced recently that it will open the first PTT petrol station in Myanmar by the second quarter of 2020. According to a senior PTTOR executive, the Myanmar government has approved plans put forth by its joint venture with Myanmar’s KBZ Group to construct a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and oil reserve facility. When completed, the facility will be the country’s largest oil and gas reserve and refinery, able to store up to one million barrels of oil and 4,500 tonnes of LPG.
Read more>>

THAILAND, CAMBODIA

Thai Airways mulls transfer of CLMV routes to subsidiary
(21 October 2019) Thai Airways chief Sumeth Damrongchaitham shared in a recent interview that the airline was thinking of canceling six of its existing flight routes to Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar — and transferring these routes to its wholly-owned subsidiary Thai Smile Airways in order to streamline costs. According to him, these routes presently operate out of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport, but with low passenger capacity and limited flights. Cambodia saw an 11.2% year-on-year rise in Thai tourists in the first eight months of 2019 totaling 234,451.
Read more>>

LAOS

Number of factories in Laos grow at 5% annually
(21 October 2019) The number of factories in Laos has been growing at around 5% per year, with around 80% of these being household businesses, according to new data from Laos’ Ministry of Industry and Commerce. More specifically, large factories accounted for only 5.43% of the sum, medium factories account for 5.96%, small factories account for 51.01%, while household workshops represent 37.6% of all factories. The data also found that 354 of these companies were owned by foreign entities, while 2,115 were joint ventures and 10,679 were home-grown businesses. Despite government attempts to attract investors, the growth rate of factories in Laos has been moderate.
Read more>>

 


mekong-monitor-map

About Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Programme was launched by the Asian Development Bank in 1992 connecting five developing ASEAN countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand, and Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. The region has some of the most robust economies sharing the Mekong River Basin thanks to its reform and liberalisation. The subregion is growing at a faster pace than the whole of East Asia and the Asia Pacific as the GDP growth rate for 2017 was at 6.4 percent, according to the World Bank. The population at the subregion as of 2016 is at 340 million while the GDP at PPP is at US$3.1 trillion in 2016. In 2015, trading within the region was at US$444 billion.

China-ASEAN Monitor: Singapore, China ink nine bilateral cooperation agreements


Photo Credit: MCI

 

Economy, Investment and Trade

 

Singapore, China ink nine bilateral cooperation agreements
(9 October 2019) Southeast Asian stores accounted for half of the top 10 (15 October 2019) The annual high-level bilateral meeting between Singapore and China held in Chongqing last week concluded with the inking of nine agreements and memoranda of understanding witnessed by Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat and Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng. The leaders also reviewed existing bilateral collaborations such as projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and announced two new cooperation areas: a Smart City Initiative for Shenzhen in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and an initiative on capital market cooperation.
Read more>>

Malaysia and Chengdu sign US$42.4 million in deals
(18 October 2019) The Chengdu-Kuala Lumpur Urban Economic & Trade Cooperation Exchange concluded with the signing of three investment cooperation agreements worth US$42.4 million between industry players from both sides. According to Chengdu deputy mayor Liu Xiaoliu, Malaysia was Chengdu’s second largest trade partner in ASEAN from January to August this year with two-way trade totalling US$2.8 billion. Furthermore, there are presently 96 Malaysian firms in Chengdu with cumulative investments worth US$900 million, and 18 Chengdu enterprises in Malaysia with investments worth US$28.44 million.
Read more>>

Siem Reap to welcome new Cambodia-China Cultural Park
(16 October 2019) Cambodia’s investment agency announced last week that it has approved the development of a US$27.5 million Cambodia-China Cultural Park in the Sla Kram commune in Siem Reap where the project is expected to complement new initiatives to boost tourism in and around the vicinity of the Angkor Archaeological Park. These initiatives come as the Cambodian government looks to boost visitors to the park, which saw an 8% drop in foreign visitors in the first half of 2019. Cambodia receives the majority of tourists from China, South Korea and the US.
Read more>>

TH Milk becomes Vietnam’s first exporter of milk to China
(19 October 2019) Vietnamese milk producer TH Milk became the first local firm to be allowed to export sterilised and modified milk products to China, according to an announcement by the Vietnamese Embassy in China last week. TH Milk is one of five Vietnamese firms who have applied for permits to export milk to China, with the other four applications still being reviewed. Ultimately, the Vietnamese government hopes to raise its revenue from dairy exports to China from US$120 million to US$300 million next year.
Read more>>

Indonesia to boost coffee production in anticipation of Chinese demand
(19 October 2019) Indonesia’s coffee bean producers are pushing their production levels in hopes of reaping 50-60% more beans in the next five years despite declining bean prices as they anticipate growing demand both at home and in China. According to US government data, the Chinese coffee market grew over nine times in the past ten years. Meanwhile, the Indonesian market is expected to grow 5-6% each year. Robusta beans account for around 72% of Indonesia’s coffee bean output, followed by Arabica beans at 18%, while the rest is made up of liberica and excelsa beans.
Read more>>

CARI Captures 426: Singapore, Australia begin negotiations on digital economy pact


 

SINGAPORE-AUSTRALIA

Singapore, Australia begin negotiations on digital economy pact
(12 October 2019) Singapore and Australia announced last week that they have commenced talks for a bilateral Digital Economy Agreement that will be finalised by early 2020. According to Singaporean trade minister Chan Chun Sing and his Australian counterpart Simon Birmingham, the pact will complement existing bilateral free trade agreements in boosting digital trade between the countries while facilitating greater data protection and cross-border data flows. The pact is intended to compliment the countries’ efforts as co-convener of the World Trade Organisation Joint Statement Initiative on E-Commerce to develop international digital trade rules.

THAILAND-EU

Thai government to expedite revival of talks for Thai-EU FTA
(16 October 2019) Thailand’s trade negotiations chief Auramon Supthaweethum said that the government is expediting internal studies in hopes of reviving the long-postponed trade negotiations between Thailand and the EU for a free trade agreement (FTA). According to her, these studies may be submitted for cabinet approval as early as next month after her department concludes a series of public hearings held in Chiang Mai, Songkhla, Khon Kaen and Bangkok in October and November. EU is presently Thailand’s fourth largest trade partner and fourth largest source of foreign investment. FTA negotiations were put on hold since the 2014 coup.

MALAYSIA-INDIA

Malaysia offers to increase agriculture imports from India to ease tensions
(15 October 2019) The Malaysian Ministry of Primary Industries published a statement this week stating their concerns regarding recent reports suggesting unfavourable relations between Malaysia and India, and saying that Malaysia is “open to further trade negotiations” to address the countries’ trade imbalance. According to the statement, this includes the possibility of Malaysia importing more raw sugar and buffalo meat from India next year. India is presently Malaysia’s third-largest export destination for palm oil and related products, with total exports worth US$10.8 billion and imports worth US$6.4 billion in the previous fiscal year that ended March 31, 2019.

ASEAN

RCEP countries racing to iron out issues and seal pact
(13 October 2019) The latest round of ministerial negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) held recently were “challenging,” according to New Zealand trade minister Damien O’Connor. Nevertheless, meeting chair and Thai deputy prime minister Jurin Laksanawisit confirmed that progress was made and that negotiations on 14 of the 20 chapters in the draft agreement has been completed. The delay is partly due to pushback from several influential quarters in India who are concerned over the impact the RCEP would have on Indian agriculture and manufacturing.

ASEAN

ASEAN nations to exchange trade documents via single window system by year-end
(14 October 2019) Eight ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei and Cambodia — are slated to adopt the ASEAN Single Window (ASW) platform by the end of 2019, thus allowing them to exchange trade and customs-related documents through an electronic platform. According to Filipino finance undersecretary Gil S. Beltran, countries will also be able to begin exchanging other documents such as self-certification of product origin and shipping documents beginning next year.

INDONESIA

Indonesia swings back to a US$160.5 million trade deficit
(15 October 2019) Indonesia recorded a US$160.5 million trade deficit in September, down from US$112.4 million trade surplus in August. According to government data, this was due to the slower-than-expected decline in imports which fell 2.41% on the year to US$14.26 billion. Furthermore, imports of capital and consumer products grew during the month, cushioning the overall drop in imports. Meanwhile, exports also fell 5.74% on the year to US$14.1 billion due to a drop in exports of the country’s two key commodities: coal and palm oil.

SINGAPORE

Singapore economy records 0.6% growth in 3Q19
(13 October 2019) The Singaporean economy avoided a technical recession in the third quarter of 2019 after it grew by 0.6% on a quarterly basis and 0.1% on a year-on-year basis. The expansion marks a reversal from the 2.7% decline the country saw in the second quarter, despite falling below the 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and 0.3% year-on-year growth projected by economists polled by Reuters. Separately, Singapore’s central bank also eased monetary policy by reducing the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate.

MALAYSIA

Trade war rejuvenates Malaysia’s ‘Silicon Valley’ of Penang state
(14 October 2019) The prolonged US-China trade war has been a boon for Malaysia’s northern Penang state which has seen foreign direct investment to the state grow by 11 times in the first half of 2019 to around US$2 billion. These figures are expected to continue growing as the federal government promises further tax incentives next year to promote its electrical and electronics (E&E) industry. The country’s E&E exports grew by 0.7% year-on-year to US$59 billion in the first eight months of 2019, though total exports dipped 0.4% to US$155.32 billion.

MALAYSIA

Government allocates funds to expand palm oil market
(14 October 2019) The Malaysian government announced that it has allocated US$6.4 million to support the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s efforts to promote palm oil in addition to a US$131.2 million loan fund for smallholders in its Budget 2020. These collateral-free loans will be provided at a 2% annual interest rate for a 12-year term, including a four-year moratorium on repayment. These efforts, among others, are part of the government’s plans to boost the demand for palm oil by up to 500,000 tonnes annually.

INDONESIA

Forests continued to be cleared for oil palm plantations despite moratorium
(14 October 2019) Forests continue to be cleared for oil palm plantations in Indonesia despite a moratorium on the issuance of new permits imposed in September 2018, with data from the forestry ministry showing an increase from 5.4 million hectares cleared last year to 5.9 million hectares in July this year. In response to concerns from civil society groups, a senior government official said that the government has postponed the clearing of 3.1 million hectares of 12 million hectares surveyed by the ministry due to lack of necessary licenses, in addition to ensuring that companies allocate 20% of their plantation to grow high conservation value forests.

Mekong Monitor: Vietnamese telco group Viettel to launch 5G services in Laos this year


Photo credit: Reuters

 

TRADE, ECONOMY, AND INVESTMENT

 

LAOS, VIETNAM

Vietnamese telco group Viettel to launch 5G services in Laos this year
(13 October 2019) Vietnamese telecommunications group Viettel announced this week that they will begin rolling out trial 5Gs services in Laos through their local subsidiary Unitel this year, with plans to eventually expand to four Southeast Asian countries. The telco’s plans for Laos comes after its recent launch of 5G testbeds in Myanmar and Cambodia. With this, Unitel will be the first telco to provide 5G services in Laos, benefiting around three million subscribers who represent over half the local market.
Read more>>

THAILAND, MYANMAR

Second Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge to be inaugurated on October 30
(13 October 2019) The second Thailand-Myanmar Friendship Bridge linking Mae Sot district in Thailand’s Tak province and Myanmar’s Myawaddy town will be inaugurated on October 30 with an opening ceremony co-chaired by Thai transport minister Saksayam Chidchob and Myanmar’s construction minister Han Zaw. The ministers will also inaugurate a second border checkpoint at Mae Sot district’s Ban Wang Takhian Tai in tambon Tha Sai Luat. These new facilities are expected to further invigorate trade along the East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC) within the Greater Mekong Subregion, as well as enhance the partnership between Myanmar and Thailand.
Read more>>

VIETNAM, LAOS, CAMBODIA

Vietnamese auto industry to face competition from Laos and Cambodia
(11 October 2019) The Vietnamese automotive industry will soon face greater competition from Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar on top of existing competition from Thailand and Indonesia, according to a new Vietnamese trade ministry report. The report found that sales of imported cars increased 150% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2019 totalling 93,600 units, while sales of locally-assembled vehicles fell 13% to 136,800 units. As such, the ministry urged the government to provide tax incentives for automotive parts and electric cars, as well as increase the localization rate of domestic cars.
Read more>>

CAMBODIA

Cargo traffic up 18% at Cambodia’s deep-sea Sihanoukville port
(15 October 2019) Cambodia’s deep sea Sihanoukville Autonomous Port recorded an 18% year-on-year rise in cargo traffic from January to September this year. According to the Cambodia Freight Forwarders Association, Sihanoukville port mostly services cargo ships transporting textiles and agricultural goods. However, the recent surge in traffic passing through the port — which services 70% of Cambodia’s imports and exports — has also led to greater congestion along routes leading to the port, which has subsequently resulted in lower terminal productivity, slower turnaround times and tight feeder space.
Read more>>

VIETNAM

Vietnam mulling increasing overtime cap for workers to meet peak production season
(15 October 2019) Vietnam’s private sector voiced their support for the labour ministry’s proposal to raise the overtime limit for workers from 300 hours to 400 hours per year to meet growing demand despite having to pay 1.5-3 times more for overtime work. The proposal is further supported by data from the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which shows that over half of workers surveyed want to work more hours to improve their income. Presently, workers are only able to work half the number of working hours a day, 30 hours a month and 300 hours a year. However, certain lawmakers have opposed the measure, claiming businesses rather than workers would benefit from it.
Read more>>

 


mekong-monitor-map

About Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Programme was launched by the Asian Development Bank in 1992 connecting five developing ASEAN countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand, and Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. The region has some of the most robust economies sharing the Mekong River Basin thanks to its reform and liberalisation. The subregion is growing at a faster pace than the whole of East Asia and the Asia Pacific as the GDP growth rate for 2017 was at 6.4 percent, according to the World Bank. The population at the subregion as of 2016 is at 340 million while the GDP at PPP is at US$3.1 trillion in 2016. In 2015, trading within the region was at US$444 billion.

China-ASEAN Monitor: Southeast Asia accounted for half of top 10 destinations by transaction volume for Golden Week Chinese tourists


Photo Credit: ST Files

 

Economy, Investment and Trade

 

Southeast Asia accounted for half of top 10 destinations by transaction volume for Golden Week Chinese tourists
(9 October 2019) Southeast Asian stores accounted for half of the top 10 destinations by transaction volume during Alibaba’s Golden Week campaign which started on October 1 in conjunction with China’s National Day. According to e-wallet provider Alipay, the top markets from Southeast Asia for Chinese tourists were Thailand (2nd), Malaysia (4th), Singapore (6th), the Philippines (7th) and Cambodia (9th). The Chinese payment app also noted that the transaction volume on its app in the Philippines grew 26 times year-on-year, while transactions in Laos grew by 4.5 times on the year.
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Jewellery traders in Myanmar face competition from illegal traders on WeChat
(11 October 2019) Myanmar brick-and-mortar gem and jade businesses have been experiencing a sharp decline in sales at official gem markets due to the rise of e-commerce. According to an industry spokesperson, this is because Chinese jewellery shoppers now prefer to shop on WeChat where they are able to purchase goods at prices that are “almost impossible” to compete with. These WeChat jewellery traders are able to provide such prices as they are illegal operators who do not pay taxes and whose goods do not go through official inspections.
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Cambodian PM urges Chinese investors to keep investing amid potential EU EBA removal
(9 October 2019) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in a Facebook post urged Chinese investors to continue investing in the country despite the possibility that the European Union may suspend the country’s preferential access to the bloc’s market under its Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme. Hun Sen’s statement was made following a meeting with Chinese business representatives, during which he noted that trade between the countries was projected to reach US$10 billion by 2022. According to a local news outlet, China has reassured Cambodia of their help should the EBA be withdrawn. In 2018, Cambodia exported US$5.3 billion worth of products to the EU.
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Cambodia attracts US$7.9 billion in investment from China during 2016-19
(11 October 2019) Cambodia has received around US$7.9 billion in Chinese investments from 2016 to August 2019, according to the Council for the Development of Cambodia. According to the council, investment from China accounts for 35% of the total US$22.5 billion in investments inflows received during the period. With this, China remains Cambodia’s top source of foreign investment, ahead of Japan and Vietnam in second and third place respectively.
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China opens market to three more Vietnamese aquatic products
(14 October 2019) Chinese customs have added three more species of Vietnamese aquatic products that can be brought into the country. The three aquatic products are different species of clams. With this, Vietnam is now able to export 48 types of aquatic products to China for food processing purposes, as well as 36 ornamental species and one species for breeding. Exports of Vietnamese seafood to China grew 14.19% year-on-year from January to September 2019 totalling US$831.81 million, accounting for 3.2% of the country’s total seafood exports during the period. The expansion of the Vietnamese export market came after Chinese customs evaluated Vietnam’s seafood control system.
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CARI Captures 424: Singapore inks free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union


 

ASEAN

Singapore inks free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union
(2 October 2019) Singapore and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) signed two agreements this week, namely a Framework Agreement and a non-Services and Investment (non-S&I) Agreement to boost trade through reduced tariff and non-tariff barriers, part of a comprehensive free trade deal. For instance, EAEU members will either lower or remove tariffs on 90% of exports from Singapore. Additionally, Singapore also inked a Services and Investment (S&I) Agreement with Armenia, as it continues to negotiate similar agreements with the other four EAEU countries — Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.

MALAYSIA, THAILAND

Bilateral trade up 14.1% year-on-year in 2018
(2 October 2019) Trade between Malaysia and Thailand saw a 14.1% year-on-year increase from US$22.96 billion in 2017 to US$26.19 billion in 2018, according to the Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade). Of the sum, Malaysian exports were worth US$14.14 billion, while its imports were worth US$12.05 billion. Furthermore, bilateral trade has so far reached US$14.67 billion in the first seven months of this year, with Malaysia’s top five exports to Thailand being crude oil, chemicals, electronic integrated circuits, electrical machinery and components, computer components and accessories. Thailand is Malaysia’s second largest ASEAN trading partner and its 5th largest trading partner globally.

BRUNEI, SINGAPORE

Brunei and Singapore to form joint working group to boost agrifood sector
(2 October 2019) Singapore senior minister Teo Chee Hean’s visit to Brunei concluded with both sides agreeing to form a joint working group to boost the countries’ agrifood sector, starting with cooperation in the aquaculture industry. Ultimately, the working group aims to facilitate public-private cooperation in investments, research and development, capacity-building and quality assurance. The joint working group will be co-chaired by the permanent secretaries of Brunei’s primary resources and tourism ministry and Singapore’s trade and investment ministry, both of whom will report to a panel of ministers from both countries.

THAILAND

Commerce and banking joint committee lowers 2019 growth and export forecasts
(2 October 2019) The Thai Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has lowered the country’s growth forecast from between 2.9% to 3.3% to between 2.7% and 3.0% as it sees slower economic growth in 3Q19. The committee also revised its export outlook from between -1% and 1% to between -2% and 0% due to global economic uncertainties, the prolonged US-China trade war and the surging baht. Nevertheless, the committee expects the government’s economic stimulus “Eat, Shop, Spend” campaign to inject around US$653.7 million to US$980.5 million into the economy, though it also expects floods to cost the economy almost as much.

VIETNAM

Vietnam’s trade surplus in September expected to narrow to US$500 million
(29 September 2019) Vietnamese imports is expected to grow 15.6% year-on-year reaching US$22.5 billion in September, according to the latest government data; and thus will likely decrease its September trade surplus to US$500 million from the US$3.44 billion surplus it saw in August. The country’s exports in the first nine months of 2019 is forecasted to have risen 8.2% on the year reaching US$194.3 billion, with imports also expected to rise by 8.9% to US$188.4 billion. The US was Vietnam’s top export destination during the same period with a turnover of US$44.9 billion, representing a 28.2% in year-on-year growth.

MYANMAR

ASEAN demand for Myanmar maize rises as Chinese demand dries up
(2 October 2019) Myanmar has been able to offset lower maize exports to China this year with the help of other ASEAN countries who have increased their imports of the crop. For instance, both Thailand and Vietnam have upped their imports of maize from Myanmar by four times to 400,000 tonnes and 40,000 tonnes, respectively this year. Additionally, Laos and the Philippines bought 20,000 tonnes and 33,000 tonnes, respectively, this year. Myanmar exported over 3.67 million tonnes of maize to China through both legal and illegal channels last year, but the volume dropped sharply due to China’s call for a nine-month halt on maize exports from Myanmar to crack down on illegal shipments.

VIETNAM, THAILAND, MALAYSIA

Efforts to attract companies relocating from China intensifies
(27 September 2019) Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are among the Southeast Asian countries leading the race to attract companies looking to shift their production base outside China. Competition is rife between Thailand and Malaysia as they both target higher-end manufacturers. Thailand has recently introduced a new range of relocation incentives that includes a five-year 50% corporate tax cut while Malaysia has set up an investment board to encourage relocations. Vietnam, on the other hand, is targeting deals across the spectrum as it promotes lower wages, proximity to China and easier business procedures.

VIETNAM, MALAYSIA

Malaysian telco infrastructure provider edotco Group mulls Vietnam entry
(29 September 2019) Malaysian telecommunications group Axiata’s infrastructure unit edotco Group said last week that it is “actively looking at Thailand and Vietnam” while also consolidating its presence in its key markets — Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Edotco Group had revealed in June that the Asia Pacific region holds a lot of growth potential for the company, with Vietnam as a key target in its expansion plans. According to local players in Vietnam, there is plenty of room for foreign investors in the domestic market, especially since only 27 of every 100 households have internet access and the number of 4G subscribers is projected to grow nine-fold in the period between 2019 and 2024.

ASEAN

ASEAN
(3 October 2019) Singapore announced this week the establishment of a new ASEAN-Singapore Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence (ASCCE) and a new committee to develop a regional cybersecurity action plan to boost the online defences of ASEAN countries. According to Singaporean communications and information minister S. Iswaran, the ASCCE will spend US$30 million in the next five years on capacity-building programmes to train national and regional emergency response teams and promote information sharing among experts in relation to cybersecurity cases.

ASEAN

Latest RCEP meeting “very fruitful”, says Thai government
(2 October 2019) The 28th and latest round of negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) held in Da Nang, Vietnam in late September were “very fruitful” and yielded “very impressive progress” as representatives of the countries involved “became more flexible,” resulting in the conclusion of 13 of the 20 chapters in the proposed agreement, according to Thai trade negotiations head Auramon Supthaweethum. She said all RCEP chapters are expected to be concluded later this year. The next round of talks will be held in Bangkok on October 12 during the 9th RCEP Ministerial Meeting.

CARI Captures 425: Southeast Asia’s internet economy to hit US$300 billion by 2025


 

ASEAN

Southeast Asia’s internet economy to hit US$300 billion by 2025
(7 October 2019) Southeast Asia’s digital economy is projected to grow by 200% in the next five years from an estimated US$100 billion this year to US$300 billion by 2025, according to this year’s edition of the e-Conomy SEA report. The report, which studies the region’s six largest economies, also found mobile internet users in Southeast Asia to be the most engaged in the world, with 90% of 360 million internet users in the region gaining access via smartphones. Growth in the region is led by Indonesia and Vietnam, in which their internet economies have been growing by 40% year-on-year.

INDONESIA, SINGAPORE

Singapore and Indonesia to renew US$10 billion currency pact for a year
(8 October 2019) Singapore and Indonesia announced this week that the local currency swap and US dollar repurchase agreement signed by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and President Joko Widodo last year will be renewed on existing terms for another year. With this, the central banks of both countries will continue to obtain each other’s currencies at the prevailing exchange rate, as well as US dollars from each other in exchange for government securities, with agreements to reverse the transaction at the same rate on a specified maturity date.

MALAYSIA

Malaysian exports fall 0.8% y-o-y in August against a forecast rise
(4 October 2019) Malaysia’s exports saw a 0.8% year-on-year fall in August at US$19.37 billion in an unexpected turn after July’s positive rebound. The fall in exports, which was far from the 2.5% growth forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, was largely attributed to the 7.4% drop in exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products during the month due to lower demand from China and Japan. Malaysia’s exports to China also fell 2.8% in August despite exports of palm oil and palm-based products growing by 23.3% on the year. Malaysia’s trade surplus in August narrowed to US$2.61 billion from US$3.42 billion in July.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia sweetens tax incentives for companies to set up hubs
(8 October 2019) The Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA) announced this week that it would increase tax incentives under the Principal Hub (PH) incentive programme for companies who set up shop in the country to conduct their regional or global business. Under the programme, companies will enjoy a 10% corporate tax rate for their operations instead of the prevailing 24%. Furthermore, companies who have yet to enter the Malaysian market can apply for tax rates of between 0%-5% for 10 years depending on their investment commitments.

INDONESIA

Indonesia to revise 18 regulations to facilitate trade and foreign investments
(4 October 2019) Indonesia’s Trade Ministry is planning to revise, if not revoke, some 18 ministerial regulations — 11 on imports and 7 on exports — to better facilitate trade and investment. According to senior ministry officials, the laws being reviewed include one on gross fixed capital formation and another on used capital goods imports. These plans were announced following a recent World Bank report which showed that Indonesia’s net FDI inflows only accounted for 1.9% of GDP in 2018 — much lower than Cambodia’s 11.8% and Vietnam’s 5.9%.

CAMBODIA

Cambodia backtracks on self-employed foreigners ban
(8 October 2019) Cambodia’s labour ministry announced last week that it has withdrawn its proposal to bar foreigners from running small businesses and pursuing self-employment. According to a ministry spokesperson, the ban was lifted following requests from the private sector. He said that this is because certain sectors such as the tourism and service sector require foreign investment and therefore foreign nationals should be allowed to be self-employed. Representatives from 50 labour groups have since published a joint statement urging the government to reinstate the directive and protect local labour.

MALAYSIA

Large oil palm estates without MSPO certification to face fine and possible suspension
(7 October 2019) The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced this week that oil palm estates and palm oil mills of over 40.47 hectares who fail to obtain the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification or begin the process of doing so starting 2020 will face legal consequences. This will include a fine as well as possible suspension, cancellation or non-renewal of licences. As of the end of August, only 50.6% of the country’s 5.85 million hectares of oil palm plantations and 64.29% of its palm oil mills have been certified.

THE PHILIPPINES-RUSSIA

Filipino, Russian firms sign MOUs in trade and investment worth US$12.6 million
(5 October 2019) Filipino and Russian firms and business associations inked 10 trade and investment agreements worth US$12.6 million during President Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to Moscow last week. According to the Philippines’ trade secretary Ramon Lopez, these included a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to export agriculture and aquaculture products to Russia and as well as a distributorship agreement that would allow Russian watches and vehicles to be distributed in the Philippines. Furthermore, documents were signed to boost cooperation in the areas of psychophysics, nuclear energy, and trade and investment.

ASEAN-US

US apparel imports from Cambodia and Vietnam grew in August
(7 October 2019) The US’ apparel imports from two Southeast Asian countries rose in August, with Cambodia leading the way in terms of growth with a 28.47% spike in exports to the US reaching 115 million square metre equivalents (SME). Vietnam, who remains the US’ second largest apparel supplier after China, also saw its export volume growing by 1.57% to 335 million SME. According to a US industry survey released earlier this year, 83% of respondents expect to reduce sourcing from China over the next two years. These figures suggest that Southeast Asian countries, particularly Cambodia and Vietnam, are the top choices for apparel producers looking to decrease sourcing from China in the near term.

ASEAN

Singapore tops WEF competitiveness index
(9 October 2019) Singapore overtook the US as the world’s most competitive country, according to the World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness rankings which took into account factors such as a country’s enabling environment, human capital and innovation ecosystem. In the ranking, Singapore ranked first in terms of infrastructure, health, labour market functioning and financial system development. Malaysia came in second in ASEAN at 27th place globally, followed by Thailand at 40th place, and Indonesia, which dropped five spots to 50th place globally.

French Fintech and Malaysia





As a speaker at the Smart Showcase Series – The Future of Fintech in ASEAN conference, organised by CIMB ASEAN Research Institute (CARI) in August, I realised that cooperation between France and Malaysia on financial innovation could certainly be promoted a bit more forcefully. Here is why and how.

Fintech in France

France’s Fintech grows on quite fertile soil. First of all, France is the world’s sixth largest economy, fully integrated into the EU single market. There is a strong banking and insurance industry, with five French banks among the 10 largest in Europe. Thirdly, it houses a dynamic environment for tech innovation and start-ups with abundant talents in engineering, sciences and business administration. Fourthly, there is a mature network of incubators including the world’s largest, Station F, in Paris and lastly, France is now the top destination in Europe for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in research and development (R&D).

Boasting apart, the French Fintech ecosystem was not an early starter. It took a joint effort by business associations, government and financial regulators to adopt a radical change of policy in order to promote financial innovation. The result, today, is a very active sector, fast-growing, and nurtured by robust public-private collaboration. Public funding is abundantly available for Fintech start-ups, notably through the public investment bank BPI France. We have specialised incubators such as The Swave, a public-private Fintech-only co-working space, or Le Hub (at the French Federation of Insurance) and of course, incubators/accelerators within major banks, such as BNP-Paribas or Credit Agricole.

Fintech in France now counts around 500 companies, employing 10,000 people, who are 31 years old on average. Seventy-five percent of the founders of these start-ups have prior experience in the financial industry – and they are also often serial-entrepreneurs. They raised €370 million (US$406 million) in capital in 2018 and generated over €1 billion (US$1.1 billion) in revenue. They cover all sectors of Fintech, from green finance to Initial Coin Offering (ICO), artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, InsurTech, RegTech, cybersecurity, big data or internet-of-things (IoT). Some of the already well-known names are October (SME Financing), Lydia (innovative payments), Ledger (crypto-currency security), Qonto (online banking solutions for start-ups) or Alan (insurance), among many other sizable players.


How can we develop cooperation in finance innovation between France and Malaysia?

Well, we are not starting from scratch. Our annual “French Tech Tour ASEAN” which introduces the most promising French start-ups to this region has brought Birdee (an automated saving app) to Malaysia this year.

In 2017, a French start-up, Neuroprofiler was selected as one of the 10 finalists of the Malaysian Fintech accelerator program, Supercharger. They assess investment profiles through behavioural finance to improve compliance and client insight. Julien Revelle, founder of Neuroprofiler remarked the friendly Fintech environment in Malaysia.

This is especially true when both our central banks, Bank Negara Malaysia and Banque de France, are receptive to this fast-changing landscape. The French central bank is now equipped with a Chief Digital Officer and an innovation lab. Bank Negara Malaysia, on the other hand, also sees Fintech as a means to enhance competition, increase productivity and fundamentally change the way institutions provide financial services.

We also have our well-established banks, insurance and asset management companies already present in Malaysia such as BNP-Paribas, Société Générale, AXA or Amundi. They also serve as a channel for cooperation in financial innovation.

Lastly, our two governments are jointly supporting a study on the implications of Fintech development for the financial industry in France and Malaysia, conducted by International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) and University of Limoges. We must build-up and enlarge the impact of these existing channels.


We should also mobilise three new tools

First, is a dialogue between regulators. For example, the model of the dialogue on finance innovation taking place since 2017 between France and Singapore. Second, extend the French Tech Community Malaysia – our platform for tech innovation exchange – to Fintech. Third, encourage Malaysian finance players to board a plane to Paris and attend the next Paris Fintech Forum (28-29 January 2020) as well as the major start-up get-together VivaTech Show (11-13 June 2020) – nothing can replace first-hand contacts, and a trip to Paris is always profitable in many ways!