CARI Analysis: Digital Payments No Longer a Luxury in the New Normal

 

CARI Analysis: Digital Payments No Longer a Luxury in the New Normal

Author: Imran Said Shamsunahar | Research Editor: Eleen Ooi Yi Ling
Webmaster: Nor Amirah Mohd Aminuddin | Research Director: Hong Jukhee

Synopsis
CARI Analysis: Digital Payments No Longer a Luxury in the New Normal looks at the increasing importance of digital payments as public health concerns now affect everyday transactions. We investigate public concerns over the possible transmission of the COVID-19 virus through hard cash, and which digital payment systems are more suited in meeting this demand for safer payment methods. We discuss whether digital payments will prove useful in promoting greater financial inclusion for the region’s large unbanked populations, and finally how the success or failure of individual digital payment providers will be dependent on their respective exposures to different economic sectors.

(This article contains 11 charts and best viewed on a desktop or horizontally on your mobile.)

KEY MESSAGES

a) Concerns over the possible transmission of the virus through hard cash has led to a boom in the usage of digital payments systems, with an April 2020 survey finding that 46% of global consumers stating they will increase their usage of digital payment systems in the next 6-9 months.
b) Survey by Mastercard in April 2020 saw contactless card transactions grow twice as fast as non-contactless transactions globally in February and March 2020 due to concerns of possible transmissions of COVID-19 through physical contact.
c) Prior to the pandemic, ASEAN’s Digital Payments sector was projected to spearhead the growth of the larger Digital Financial Services within the region. Just prior to the epidemic, the industry was expected to cross US$1 trillion by 2025.
d) Under-banked Consumers, rather than purely Un-banked Consumers, have been identified as the true growth engine of ASEAN’s Digital Financial Services Industry.
e) A 2019 survey found that one of the largest hindrances to more widespread usage of e-wallets in Southeast Asia was the lack of adoption by merchants, with only an average of 28% of retailers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam accepting e-wallets as a payment method.
f) Despite mass shifts towards digital payments worldwide, the revenue of global payments industries is expected to decline due to slumps in global transaction volumes. A March 2020 report by McKinsey projected that global payments revenue would possibly decline by 10-12% in 2020 as compared to 2019. Different payments players will also be impacted by exposure to different sectors.

1) Health concerns driving increasing usage of digital payment services


1a. No concrete evidence to show physical cash can transmit COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increasing concern over the possible transmission of the virus through the handling of physical cash. It has generally been understood by scientists that the risk of viral transmission by banknotes is low as compared to other frequently touched objects.1

The head of the German public health institute, Lothar Wieler, noted in March 2020 that “(viral) transmission through banknotes has no particular significance”, as airborne droplets from infected individuals are the main infection risk. Moreover, experts note that washing hands after touching cash or other objects may help to reduce the risk of transmission.2


1b. Huge spike in Internet searches on related topics concerning hard cash and viral transmissions

Regardless of expert opinion, recent research by the Bank for International Settlements found a huge spike in Internet searches concerning viral transmission by hard cash during the COVID-19 pandemic (see Figure 1).3

Breaking down the searches by country, it was noted that searches were more prevalent where more small-denomination banknotes (the ones commonly used in everyday transactions) were in circulation relative to the GDP (see Figure 1).4


1c. 46% of global consumers to increase usage of digital payments in next 6-9 months

According to Capgemini Research Institute, health concerns caused by the pandemic have seen 46% of global consumers say they will increase their usage of digital payment systems in the next 6-9 months (see Figure 2).5

 


1d. Retailers encouraged to adopt e-payment and self-checkout systems

The research by Capgemini recommended that retailers around the world aggressively increase the adoption of e-payment systems such as digital payment wallets and contactless cards as consumers put more stock into health and safety practises by businesses.6

41% of respondents in the survey also noted that they would prefer to frequent stores that do not have touch-based self-checkout systems for the next six to nine months (see Figure 3).7

In response, retailers were also recommended to adopt autonomous self-checkout systems with mobile phones, as it allows consumers to practise social distancing and avoid as much physical contact at the point-of-sale as possible.8

 

2) Use of cashless payments are expected to boom during and post-COVID-19


2a. Share of cashless payments expected to grow by 9% in leading economies in 2020

Research by the Asian Banker has found that the share of cashless payments are expected to grow by 9% in leading economies in 2020, led by China, Japan, Singapore, and the UK (see Figure 4).


2b. Share of global transaction values conducted digitally in 2025 projected to rise by 5-10%

Bain & Company had raised their estimations of the share of global transaction values conducted digitally in 2025 by 5-10% in response to the structural changes caused by COVID-19 (see Figure 5).10

3) Not all digital payment options are risk free from physical contact


3a. Debit or credit card transactions often still require physical contact

It should be noted that not all cashless payment methods are immune from physical contact and the risks of viral transfer. A 2020 study by van Doremalen et al (2020) found that COVID-19 survives best on non-porous materials, which could include credit/debit card terminals or PIN pads (see Figure 6).11

This could prove problematic for certain digital payment options such as debit and credit card transactions, which generally require a signature or PIN entry at a merchant-owned device for larger transactions.


3b. Contactless card transactions grew twice as fast as non-contactless transactions globally in early 2020

Contactless card options, on the other hand, do not require a PIN for smaller transactions. An April 2020 survey by Mastercard of 17,000 consumers in 19 countries worldwide saw contactless card transactions grow twice as fast as non-contactless transactions globally in February and March 2020. Mastercard attributed this to increasing concerns by consumers over health and safety at the point of sale when buying essential goods, as well as wanting to reduce time spent at stores by as much as possible. 12

Among their findings included:

  • 46% of respondents globally swapped their top-of-wallet card for one that offered contactless. In the Asia Pacific, 51% of people made the swap.13
  • 82% of respondents globally viewed contactless as the cleaner payment method, with 80% in the Asia Pacific saying the same.14
  • 74% of people globally and 75% in the Asia Pacific stated they would continue to use contactless after the pandemic is over.15
  • Data by Mastercard found 40% growth in contactless transactions globally in the first quarter of 2020. More than 80% of contactless transactions were under US$25, a range typically dominated by cash.16
  • Mastercard saw the number of tap-and-go card payments at grocery stores and pharmacies grow twice as fast as non-contactless transactions globally and 2.5 times faster in the Asia Pacific alone.17

Digital wallets or other smartphone-based payment systems (such as stored card details or QR codes) are another solution due to the lack of physical contact required. Online banking is of course another alternative for a non-contact cashless payment system.

4) Digital Payments will spearhead the growth of Digital Financial Services in ASEAN


4a. ASEAN Digital Payments industry expected to cross US$1 trillion by 2025

A joint study by Temasek and Google conducted prior to the pandemic found that Digital Payments were expected to spearhead the growth of the larger Digital Financial Services industry within ASEAN. The Digital Payments industry was expected to cross US$1 trillion by 2025, with e-Wallets alone composing US$114 billion (see Figure 7). It was believed that by 2025, digital payments would account for nearly one in every two dollars spent in the region.18


4b. Mobile payment services usage in ASEAN is relatively low

However, widespread usage of digital payments may have a long way to go. According to a January 2020 survey by We Are Social, only Thailand and Singapore saw a higher percentage of its population use mobile payment services monthly as compared to the global average of 27%, with Thailand measuring at 40% and Singapore at 31%, respectively19 (see Figure 8).

 

5) Digital Payments may not necessarily promote greater financial inclusion


5a. 198 million adults in Southeast Asia lack bank accounts

Temasek and Google found that 104 million adults in SEA are fully Banked, meaning they enjoy access to full Financial Services. A further 98 million are Underbanked, meaning they have a bank account but lack access to credit, investment, and insurance services. A remaining 198 million in Southeast Asia are deemed Unbanked, meaning they have no bank accounts at all (see Figure 9).20

In ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, the unbanked compose the majority of the populace (see Figure 9). 21

Among the reasons for this can include issues of cost. In a sprawling region where physical infrastructure is lacking, it is prohibitively expensive for financial institutions to build physical branches that can serve all customers. Other challenges include the absence of public registers, identification systems and reliable credit information; basic prerequisites for financial institutions. Moreover, banking is a tightly regulated sector in many Southeast Asian nations, a legacy of the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Competition and innovation, as a result, have been stifled. 22


5b. Underbanked Consumers – true growth engine of ASEAN Digital Financial Services industry

Different consumer segments present different opportunities and can be best served by different players. Underbanked Consumers have been identified as the true growth engine of the Digital Financial Services industry. The report by Temasek and Google suggested that Consumer Technology Platforms (such as regional Internet platforms such as Gojek, Grab, Lazada and Sea Group) are best placed to serve this segment, due to their large customer base.23


5c. It can be difficult to reach Unbanked Consumers with Digital Financial Services

Contrary to popular narratives, serving Unbanked Consumers may prove to be the hardest undertaking. Acquiring customers in this segment can be expensive as compared to the returns made. Established Consumer Players such as telcos and retailers may be best placed to serve them through their extensive physical distribution networks.24


5d. E-wallets in ASEAN largely utilized by already banked customers

Despite claims that digital financial tools such as e-wallets are a means to improve financial inclusion, a 2019 report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on e-wallets usage in Southeast Asia found that it was largely utilized by customers who already use traditional banking services. 25

In Indonesia the same research found that 57% of banked respondents used e-wallets, compared with 26% of underbanked Indonesians and only 14% of the unbanked. In Vietnam, e-wallet usage was 42% among the banked and 17% among the unbanked. Thirty-one percent of banked Malaysians used them, but only 9% of the unbanked (see Figure 10).26

 


5e. Only 28% of retailers in ASEAN accept e-wallet payments

The BCG survey also found that one of the biggest hindrances to widespread adoption of e-wallets in most Southeast Asian countries was acceptance by merchants. 56% of respondents across the region in BCG’s survey cited ‘not accepted by merchants’ as the main problem with using e-wallets. They also found that only an average of 28% of retailers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam accept e-wallet payments.27


5f. 58% of ASEAN merchants believe complexity of e-wallet payments is biggest hindrance to adoption

When analyzing reasons why merchant adoption of e-wallets was so low, BCG found that 58% of merchants across the region agreed with the statement ‘I do not completely understand this payment process’ as the most important reason for not accepting payments through e-wallets. Another 45% stated that inconvenience in processing the payments through this option was their top reason (see Figure 11).28

6) Digital Payments platforms will still face a tough 2020


6a. Global payments revenue to decline by between 8-12% year on year in 2020

The global payments industry will see decreasing revenues in 2020, with a slowing global economy in the wake of shuttered businesses, restricted movements and closed borders contributing to a slump in global transactions. A March 2020 report by McKinsey projected that global payments revenue would decline by US$165 billion in 2020, 8% lower than in 2019 (instead of a 6% increase against the base of US$1.9 billion projected before the crisis) (see Figure 11).29

A more pessimistic scenario, which would see a muted recovery by global economies, projected a decline in global payments revenues of 10-12% in 2020 as compared to pre-crisis levels. McKinsey determined that 80% of the decline would be due to a drop in the volume of global payments (see Figure 11). 30


6b. Payment platforms exposed to aviation and consumer electronics to be negatively impacted

Different payment players will be impacted differently depending on their exposure to various sectors. An April 2020 report by PricewaterhouseCooper projected that payment platforms with large exposure to the aviation, tourism and hospitality, electronics and consumer durables sectors would be negatively impacted by the decrease in transaction volumes. Concurrently, those exposed to sectors such as physical retail, telecoms, e-Commerce and healthcare and pharmaceuticals could expect to see increases in consumer transactions. 31

7) Conclusion


7a. Health concerns now a new factor in consumer’s choice of payment options

The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the beginning of 2020 has meant that health concerns, particularly public worries about the transmission of the virus through the exchange of physical cash, are now a new factor in consumer’s choice of payment options. Although the scientific consensus thus far is that the risk of viral transmission of the virus remains limited, many retailers and consumers have sought to play it safe by increasing the usage of digital payments under the ‘new normal’.

ASEAN governments have also encouraged the adoption of digital payments. In early April 2020, the Monetary Authority of Singapore stated they were working closely with The Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS) to promote greater adoption of e-payments among individuals and businesses. Likewise, in early March Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc requested the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to develop a pilot plan to popularise mobile payments, and later in April requested the Ministry of Information and Communication to join forces with the SBV to put mobile payments into circulation.32


7b. Not all cashless payment options are free from risk of viral transmissions

Not all digital payments options are completely immune from requiring some form of physical contact. Debit and credit card transactions often require a PIN entry or signature at the merchant-owned terminal for transactions above a certain amount. This may prove problematic, as a 2020 study by van Doremalen et al suggested that COVID-19 survives best on non-porous materials including credit/debit card terminals or PIN pads. Contactless card payments, on the other hand, often do not require a PIN for small transactions, and indeed on March 25, 2020, the European Banking Authority encouraged payment service providers (where possible) to raise their contactless payment thresholds to the maximum threshold of €50 per transaction.33


7c. Not all digital payment platforms will benefit from the digitalization of transactions

Although studies have suggested a mass shift towards digital payments options in the wake of the ‘new normal’ (and which is expected to persist over the coming months), not all digital payments platforms are expected to benefit equally. A global slowdown brought on by supply chain disruptions and government-enforced lockdowns will inevitably cause a drag on global expenditure. Greater exposure to vulnerable sectors, including aviation, tourism and hospitality, and consumer electronics, will prove detrimental to revenues due to slumps on transaction volumes.



Footnotes

1 Reuters, ‘Banknotes carry no particular coronavirus risk: German disease expert’, March 2020, Bank for International Settlements, ‘BIS Bulletin 3: Covid-19, Cash, and the Future of Payments’, April 2020.
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid.
4 Ibid.
5 Capgemini Research Institute, ‘Global consumer sentiment research in the consumer products and retail industry’, April 2020.
6 Ibid.
7 Ibid.
8 Ibid.
9 The Asian Banker, ‘Cashless payments in leading economies forecasted to grow 9% in 2020 due to COVID-19’, May 2020.
10 Bain & Company, ‘The Covid-19 Tipping Point for Digital Payments’, April 2020.
11 van Doremalen, N, T Bushmaker, D Morris, M Holbrook, A Gamble, B Williamson, A Tamin, J Harcourt, N Thornburg, S Gerber, J Lloyd-Smith, E de Wit and V Munster (2020): “Aerosol and surface stability of SARSCoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1”, NEJM.org, March 2020.
12 Mastercard, ‘Press Release: Mastercard study shows consumers moving to contactless payments for everyday purchases as they seek cleaner, touch-free options’, April 2020.
13 Ibid.
14 Ibid.
15 Ibid.
16 Ibid.
17 Ibid.
18 Temasek & Google, ‘SEAN Internet Economy Report 2019’, October 2019
19 We Are Social, ‘Digital 2020: Global Digital Overview’, January 2020.
20 Temasek & Google, ‘SEAN Internet Economy Report 2019’, October 2019.
21 Ibid.
22 Ibid.
23 Ibid.
24 Ibid.
25 Boston Consulting Group, ‘Southeast Asian Consumers Are Driving a Digital Payment Revolution’, May 2020.
26 Ibid.
27 Ibid.
28 Ibid.
29 McKinsey & Company, ‘How payments can adjust to the coronavirus pandemic—and help the world adapt’, March 2020.
30 Ibid.
31 PricewaterhouseCooper, ‘Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital payments’, April 2020.
32 Monetary Authority of Singapore, ‘Press Release: MAS Urges Use of Digital Finance and E-Payments to Support COVID-19 Safe Distancing Measures’, April 2020, Open Gov Asia, ‘Vietnamese government promotes digital payments’, May 2020.
33 van Doremalen, N, T Bushmaker, D Morris, M Holbrook, A Gamble, B Williamson, A Tamin, J Harcourt, N Thornburg, S Gerber, J Lloyd-Smith, E de Wit and V Munster (2020): “Aerosol and surface stability of SARSCoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1”, NEJM.org, March 2020, European Banking Authority, ‘EBA provides clarity to banks and consumers on the application of the prudential framework in light of COVID-19 measures’, March 2020.



CARI Captures 460: Southeast Asia’s FDI inflows increased 5% in 2019



 

ASEAN

Southeast Asia’s FDI inflows increased 5% in 2019
(16 June 2020) Southeast Asia saw its foreign direct investment (FDI) rise by 5% to a record level of US$156 billion in 2019, according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Growth was mainly driven by strong investment in Singapore (US$92 billion), Indonesia (US$23 billion) and Vietnam (US$16 billion), which received more than 80% inflows into the region. Investments into the region came from other Asian economies, the US and ASEAN countries with manufacturing and services making up most of the inflows to Southeast Asia. Cambodia recorded its highest ever FDI, at US$3.7 billion, while FDI inflow to Malaysia was flat at US$8 billion. Investment in Myanmar, Laos, the Philippines and Thailand fell. Due to the impact of COVID-19, UNCTAD forecasts a decline of up to 30%-40% for FDI in Asia and a drop of 40% for global FDI.

MYANMAR

Myanmar finalises second Investment Policy Review with OECD’s help
(25 June 2020) Myanmar’s Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations (MIFER) finalised its second Investment Policy Review (IPR) with help of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on 23 June. The report will help identify further policy reforms needed to make the country a more attractive investment destination. The report is expected to be published in the next three months. While the first IPR, conducted in 2014, focused on investment promotion and facilitation, financial sector reform, infrastructure development and responsible business conduct, the second IPR will focus on areas such as connectivity, green growth-focused investment frameworks, secure and well-defined land rights, and enhancing the role of economic zones. Myanmar is reportedly on track to meet its FDI target of US$5.8 billion for the 2019/2020 fiscal year.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia’s economy projected to contract 3.1% in 2020, grow 6.9% in 2021
(25 June 2020) Malaysia’s economy is expected to contract by 3.1% in 2020 due to the slowdown in economic activity caused by COVID-19 but is projected to grow 6.9% in 2021 as the outbreak eases, according to a World Bank report released on 25 June. In the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020), the country’s exports of goods and services declined for a third consecutive quarter by 7.1%, its largest decline since the global financial crisis in 2009. Investment, on the other hand, contracted for the fifth consecutive quarter by 4.6% in Q1 2020 compared to a contraction of 0.7% in Q4 2019. Meanwhile, private consumption moderated to 6.7% in Q1 2020, down from 8.1% in the previous quarter, mainly due to the impact of COVID-19 and the Movement Control Order on retail, travel, leisure and recreational spending and consumption of durable goods.

THAILAND

Myanmar lays out three-phase recovery plan to reinvigorate tourism industry
(26 June 2020) Thailand’s Finance Ministry plans to ramp up its debt sales in an effort to raise a major portion of the US$32 billion it is borrowing for its financial stimulus programme. There seems to be growing concern over the increasing indebtedness of the Thai government, with steepening yield curves and slackening demand seen at the latest sale of five- and 15-year bonds last week. One analyst argued the Thai government should focus on increasing the supply of short-to-medium maturity sovereign bonds and retail savings bonds to mitigate the risks of higher long-tenor bond yields. The bond market may also benefit from the return of foreign investors, with overseas funds buying a net total of US$1.1 billion in Thai bonds in June 2020.

THE PHILIPPINES

Thailand’s property market strengthening
(25 June 2020) Philippine central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, as the country braces for its deepest economic slump in more than three decades. On 25 June, the central bank lowered its key rate to 2.25% from 2.75%. As of now, the central bank has cut interest rates by 175 basis points in 2020, as well as cut reserve ratios for banks and pumping liquidity into the financial system. The governor of the central bank, Benjamin Diokno, had previously signalled his preference for keeping real interest rates positive, meaning there may be little scope for further easing.

THE PHILIPPINESA

Philippine-Japan trade fall by more than half in April 2020
(24 June 2020) The Philippines’ Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said it is preparing a 2021 national budget of US$86 billion (P4.3 trillion), which will focus on measures to address unemployment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Budget Secretary Wendel E. Avisado, the spending plan for 2021 will be aligned with the government’s priorities by setting a high priority on dealing with the consequences of the outbreak, which wiped out livelihoods and jobs. He said in a briefing that the budget will focus on labour-intensive projects and activities to provide income to the most vulnerable and most affected in both the private and public sectors. A report by the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE), revealed that 90,215 workers from 3,189 establishments have been displaced nationwide since January 2020.

CAMBODIA

Garment manufacturers urge government to temporarily suspend minimum wage
(23 June 2020) A group representing garment factories in Cambodia have urged the government to temporarily suspend the minimum wage of US$190 as the sector struggles with the COVID-19 pandemic. Cambodia’s apparel and footwear sector remains vital to the economy, generating US$10 billion in annual exports and employing 800,000 people. Since COVID-19, more than 250 factories employing some 130,000 workers have suspended operations. The Ministry of Labour, however, stated it was not aware of any proposal while Cambodian Alliance of Trade Unions president Yang Sophorn, argued that the proposal was an “excuse” to avoid engaging in serious wage negotiations.

INDONESIA

Grab Indonesia contributed US$5.45 billion to the Indonesian economy in 2019
(25 June 2020) Ride-hailing firm Grab Indonesia contributed US$5.45 billion to the Indonesian economy in 2019, according to research conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Tenggara Strategics. The largest contributor to the economy was Grab Indonesia’s food delivery service, GrabFood, which contributed US$2.6 billion. The data was calculated through the incomes of more than 5,000 surveyed Grab partners and merchants before and after joining Grab. The executive director of Tenggara Strategics, Riyadi Suparno, said that platforms like Grab and the gig economy can support the country as it recovers from COVID-19. The research also found that the monthly sales of GrabFood merchant partners increased by 35% in 2019 compared to the monthly sales in 2018.

ASEAN

ASEAN and other countries reaffirm commitment to sign RCEP in 2020
(24 June 2020) ASEAN member countries and other stakeholders reiterated their commitment to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal in 2020, despite the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. At the 10th Regional Inter-sessional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Ministerial Meeting held virtually on 23 June, ASEAN, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand said the deal’s importance has grown amid the pandemic. They also noted that “the RCEP remains open for India,” which had backed out of talks in November 2019, citing unresolved “significant issues.” Once it comes into effect, the RCEP is estimated to be the biggest trade pact in the world, as it will involve countries that collectively make up one-third of global gross domestic product.

ASEAN

ASEAN leaders to convene at 36th Summit online
(25 June 2020) ASEAN leaders will convene at the 36th ASEAN Summit today via teleconference to discuss on how to further enhance cooperation on public health emergencies and put in place a robust post-pandemic recovery plan. The summit was originally scheduled for 6-9 April, but was postponed to June due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As ASEAN Chair in 2020, Vietnam Prime Minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, will preside over the opening ceremony of the summit. During the summit, ASEAN leaders will evaluate ASEAN’s community-building efforts, the challenges ahead, and adopt a number of key documents to improve the lives of the peoples of ASEAN post-COVID-19. The summit is expected to reaffirm the need for a post-pandemic recovery plan which will involve collaboration among industries, the private sector and other stakeholders.

Mekong Monitor: Myanmar to distribute stimulus payments to 5.4 million households


Photo Credit: Myanmar Times

 

TRADE, ECONOMY, AND INVESTMENT

 

MYANMAR

Myanmar to distribute stimulus payments to 5.4 million households
(22 June 2020) Myanmar’s government plans to give stimulus money to 5.4 million households to counter the economic fallout caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a spokesperson from the President’s office, permission from other government agencies will be sought to enable the distribution of US$14 (20,000 kyat) to each household. The pandemic has caused tens of thousands of workers to lose their jobs when factories closed due to raw materials disruption and cancellation of orders. Hundreds of thousands of local farmers were also affected when they were not able to export their produce due to border closures. In an earlier announcement, the government said it would enlist the help of digital payment service providers to deliver the stimulus payments in hard-to-reach areas.
Read more>>

MYANMAR

Agricultural exports increased by US$466 million as of 12 June
(24 June 2020) Myanmar’s exports of agricultural products between 1 October and 12 June in the current fiscal year 2019/2020 increased to over US$2.9 billion from $2.4 billion in the corresponding period of the 2018/2019 fiscal year, according to trade figures released by the Ministry of Commerce. Over the past eight months, the export figures marked an increase of $466 million year-on-year. In the exports sector, agriculture was the top performing sector along with the natural gas sector. The main items of export in the agricultural sector were rice and broken rice, pulses, corn, and rubber. Myanmar’s agricultural products are primarily exported to China, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. The export market, however, remains uncertain due to unsteady global demand.
Read more>>

THAILAND

Thailand to prepare registration methods for domestic tourism by 1 July
(22 June 2020) Thailand’s Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) plans to propose registration methods for three domestic tourism stimulus packages, Kum Lang Jai (Encouragement), Rao Pai Tiew Gun (Let’s travel together), and Tiew Pan Suk (Trips to share happiness), to the Cabinet on 30 June. The FPO has instructed the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to reconsider the methods after talks between the TAT and Krung Thai Bank on 19 June on registration methods for the packages ended without any conclusion. The FPO director-general, Lavaron Sangsnit, confirmed that registration methods for the packages would be made as simple as possible for the public and tourism businesses. He believes that these measures will help stimulate the economy and generate revenue for the country.
Read more>>

THAILAND

Eastern Economic Corridor to push for more foreign businesspersons to be allowed into the country
(23 June 2020) The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Office of Thailand will propose that the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) consider allowing groups of foreign business operators to visit EEC provinces. According to EEC Office secretary-general Kanit Sangsubhan, the office will propose that the visitors undergo COVID-19 tests in their respective countries, and again upon arrival in Thailand. They will also be required to purchase medical insurance covering COVID-19 treatment and undergo a 14-day quarantine at “alternative” places in the EEC. The EEC Policy Committee also met on 22 June to discuss the possible relaxation of lockdown measures to allow businesspersons related to EEC investment to enter the zone.
Read more>>

VIETNAM

Businesses strive to reduce inventory after COVID-19 pandemic
(22 June 2020) More than half (57.7%) of enterprises in Vietnam that were affected by the COVID-19 outbreak said their consumption market had sharply decreased, according to a recent survey by the General Statistics Office (GSO). The shrinking consumer market is, therefore, the top concern of most businesses at the moment. Although purchasing power has improved, it is still at a modest level and this results in the large inventory of many businesses. To address purchasing power, large inventory, and domestic consumption, Ho Chi Minh City has launched promotional activities such as the combination of traditional shopping channels with e-commerce and connecting businesses in the city with other provinces in September. The latter aims to form supply chains from production to consumption and delivery, bringing the city’s goods into distribution systems of other provinces and vice versa.
Read more>>

 


mekong-monitor-map

About Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Programme was launched by the Asian Development Bank in 1992 connecting five developing ASEAN countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand, and Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. The region has some of the most robust economies sharing the Mekong River Basin thanks to its reform and liberalisation. The subregion is growing at a faster pace than the whole of East Asia and the Asia Pacific as the GDP growth rate for 2017 was at 6.4 percent, according to the World Bank. The population at the subregion as of 2016 is at 340 million while the GDP at PPP is at US$3.1 trillion in 2016. In 2015, trading within the region was at US$444 billion.

China-ASEAN Monitor: Malaysia’s trading capabilities to be boosted through cooperation with China


Photo Credit: Malaysian Reserve

 

Economy, Investment and Trade

 

Malaysia’s trading capabilities to be boosted through cooperation with China
(23 June 2020) Malaysia’s exports and imports capabilities are expected to be significantly increased through infrastructure development cooperation with China, a senior Malaysian official said on 23 June. Projects such as the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park (MCKIP) will be part of a larger smart network to enable Malaysia to take advantage of its geographical location to drive trade. The future development of the MCKIP will focus on artificial intelligence to promote more intelligent logistics and the setting up a larger cold chain warehouse to facilitate the exports of agricultural goods to China. The ECRL, for its part, will help the government to promote greater connectivity.
Read more>>

Malaysia seeks re-examination of BRI-backed projects due to COVID-19
(11 June 2020) A consortium of companies that includes Singapore Telecommunications are building a high-performance submarine cable connecting the country with China (Hong Kong and Guangdong province), Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Other members of the consortium called the Asia Direct Cable Consortium, include China Telecom, SoftBank, Tata Communications, and Viettel. At 9,400 kilometres long, the cable is designed to carry more than 140 terabits per second of traffic, enabling high-capacity transmission of data across Southeast and East Asia. Construction of the cable is scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Read more>>

China’s Maple Leaf to buy one of Singapore’s largest international schools
(22 June 2020) Hong Kong-listed firm China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Ltd agreed to acquire one of Singapore’s largest international schools for US$487 million. Singapore’s Canadian International School is being purchased by China Maple Leaf from Southern Capital Group Pte and HPEF Capital Partners, with the firm agreeing to pay in cash and settle all of the school’s debts. Upon completion of the transaction, the school will become an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of China Maple Leaf. The Canadian International School has about 3,000 students in Singapore while China Maple Leaf operates 104 schools from preschool to high school in China and overseas, including in Canada and Australia.
Read more>>

MAS suggests Singapore and China work together to promote green finance in region
(23 June 2020) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has suggested that China and Singapore work together to develop frameworks for green and sustainability-linked loans customised for Chinese and Singaporean SMEs. According to MAS managing director Ravi Menon, financial cooperation has been a highlight of Singapore’s 30-year bilateral relationship with China. Highlighting existing partnerships between Chinese and Singapore banks to finance green and sustainable projects, Menon suggested that the two countries work together to create frameworks for green and sustainability-linked loans, customised for Chinese and Singaporean SMEs. He added that such frameworks can help promote cross-border syndications in green loans, reduce the borrowing costs of SMEs, promote economic transformation and upgrading.
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Beijing-backed AIIB approves US$1 billion worth of loans for Indonesia
(23 June 2020) The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved US$1 billion in two loans to help Indonesia combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The first loan of US$750 million, co-financed by the Asian Development Bank, will finance a project to boost economic support for businesses and vulnerable households, as well as support Indonesia’s healthcare system. The second loan of US$250 million, co-financed by the World Bank, will back the government’s response to the pandemic. Both loans are part of the AIIB’s US$10 billion fund to help the public and private sector fight the pandemic.
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CARI Briefings on How can ASEAN bounce back: China’s economic trajectory and ASEAN

Published on 24 June 2020



CARI Viewpoint: China’s economic recovery likely to take place in 2021 while ASEAN needs to stop selling itself short to gain from its sweet spot

CIMB ASEAN Research Institute (CARI) organised its first edition of “CARI Briefings: COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plan Series – How can ASEAN Bounce Back” titled “China’s Economic trajectory and ASEAN – The New Abnormal: Navigating the Post-Pandemic World” on 16 June 2020 featuring Pauline Loong, Senior Fellow of CARI and Managing Director of Hong Kong-based research consultancy Asia-Analytica and an award-winning policy risk analyst specialising in China’s broader political economy.

Businesses in many countries have started to reopen in the hopes of restarting battered economies amid the COVID-19 pandemic. To add to the uncertainty, political rumblings ranging from anti-racist protests in the US to those protesting against the imposition of security law in Hong Kong threaten to have long-term implications. With the situation looking bleak, many look to China to lead the world back on the economic recovery path.

During the briefing, among the key insights shared were:

1) China will be back in business, just not this year


a. The world talks of de-globalisation but the reality is we are all shackled together

When and by how much the Chinese economy recovers depends on not just what’s happening in China itself but what’s happening in other countries as well. According to Pauline, the talk of de-globalisation exists but the reality is that economies remain tied to each, albeit reluctantly. “We are shackled together,” she said.

“The government of China has started to unwind its measures to contain the pandemic but simply allowing people to go to work does not mean that Chinese growth will automatically get back on track,” Pauline said.

In the GDP projections by both the IMF and the World Bank, China is the only one among major economies to make it into positive growth in 2020 and 2021. However, Pauline cautions that the various forecasts are based on varying levels of assumptions each with their respective butterfly effects.


b. China’s economic numbers paint a bleak picture

Domestic consumption as an engine of growth for China is often misunderstood, Pauline pointed out. There is the argument that because the consumption’s share of the Chinese economy is large and growing, it must, therefore, be replacing investment and productivity as the top engine of growth.

However, size is always just a part of the story. The notion of consumer spending driving growth is the result, and not the cause of a productive, healthy economy. “Efficient investment and productivity generate the wealth that spurs the consumption, that in turn, spurs investment in a virtuous cycle of growth,” she said.

To drive her point, Pauline revealed how Chinese private consumption in 1962 accounted for 71.3% of its economy but did not push growth as the GDP shrank 5.7% that year. She then presented current figures for the Chinese economy.

According to her, the one-stop indicator of a country’s economic pain is the government’s tax receipts, which in China’s case, fell 16.7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2020. The effect was felt throughout China’s 31 provinces and regions: Guangzhou province, normally the nation’s best performer, saw its GDP fall 6.7% while Hubei province suffered a catastrophic 39.2% drop in GDP.


c. No GDP target set for 2020

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting a 1.2% growth for China while the World Bank has forecasted 1.0%. “Interestingly, the Chinese government itself was less confident than the IMF or the World Bank that growth could even get back to positive territory by the end of this year,” said Pauline.

During the National People’s Congress meeting on 20 May 2020, part of Chinese premier Li Keqiang’s work report presentation included the announcement that the government would not be setting a GDP target for 2020. This was a departure from a decades-old tradition of setting parameters for lower-level governments in their economic plans for the economy. In a command economy like China, official targets guide decisions on investments, trade and even monetary policies and are also seen by investors as something to strive for.

The reason behind the Chinese government’s decision to not set a GDP target becomes clear when one looks at premier Li’s list of six priorities for 2020. The list on the left hand side (Six Priorities) displays the six areas with the highest policy priorities while the list on the right hand side (Six Kisses) is a list of sectors that would require what the Chinese government calls “stabilising.” According to Pauline, the second list was promptly nicknamed the “six kisses” by the people because the Chinese word for stability is identical in pronunciation to the word “kiss.”

As can be observed from the last item under the Six Kisses list, managing market expectations may have something to do with the way the Chinese government has been acting this year, i.e., not setting a GDP target for 2020 and playing up the economical challenges facing the nation instead of playing them down. “By emphasising the many areas of the economy that needs fixing, Beijing is dampening expectations of a quick rebound. If growth this year chips into the negative, markets will take it in stride. There would be no mad rush for the door by frightened investors,” said Pauline.

“If on the other hand, growth manages to eke into the positive territory, everyone with exposure to China will be congratulating themselves. So dampening expectations is a PR win-win [for China].”


d. Forget 2020, look to 2021

Since it is already halfway through the year, Pauline said businesses should forget 2020 as the chances of a meaningful recovery for the Chinese and global economy is slim. The global economy has been under lockdown for months and only just reopening. People in China, in the US, in Europe, people around the globe are concerned and therefore are not spending or investing. The return of confidence will take time.

“Even though Chinese numbers in the coming months may launch headlines, the real turning point in terms of business opportunities in China is in 2021,” she said.

Reasons to look to 2021 for China’s economic recovery:

  • The centenary of China’s ruling party takes place in 2021
    • 2021 will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing will pull out all the stops to present a successful face of China in the form of a buoyant economy to its people and to the world.
  • China’s position as a command economy
    • The Chinese government will be able to deploy policy tools unique to a command economy such as:
      • Telling banks which sectors to lend to
      • Control capital outflows
      • Releasing a positive and negative sector list for investments and trade

Given the political imperative for a good show in 2021, Pauline is of the opinion that the odds are very good for a robust rebound for the Chinese economy next year.

2) ASEAN is in a sweet spot but it will be for nought if it does not work together


a. ASEAN sells itself short

The many advantages of ASEAN such as a young demographic, third-largest labour force globally and the potential consumer market of 650 million are well-known. The region was also the fifth-largest economy in 2019, with a combined GDP of US$3 trillion.

Pauline reveals that intra-ASEAN numbers remain strong:

  • Exports: Almost a quarter, or 21% of the goods exported in 2019 went to fellow ASEAN nations. China as a market came in a distant second at 13.9%, while the EU and the US tied for third with 11%.
  • Imports: More than a fifth of the goods imported in 2019 or almost 22% were from other ASEAN nations. China was a close second for this at 20.5%.
  • Investment: The bulk of FDI flows to the region comes from other ASEAN nations. In 2018, investment from within ASEAN accounted for 15.2% of the region’s FDI. This compares this with FDI from the EU at 14.2%, Japan 13.7%, and China 6.5%.


b. The region looks set to emerge from the pandemic better than others

Even though ASEAN countries have been badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and some are still struggling to contain it, Pauline believes the region is likely to survive this pandemic better than many other parts of the world.

ASEAN as a group entered into the crisis in relatively good economic shape; its banks are mostly well-capitalised, with low levels of non-performing loans and it has adequate levels of foreign exchange reserves. Things are understandably looking a little grim at the moment due to the pandemic.

Pauline reveals that the outlook for ASEAN for 2021 and 2022 is very positive. “ASEAN has hit a sweet spot amid the turmoil rocking the world. The change in risk perceptions worldwide is driving structural shifts in international trade and commerce and the main beneficiaries of these shifts is ASEAN.”

The three reasons behind Pauline’s positive outlook are:

  • Supply chain – diversification, regionalisation
    • The pandemic is giving fresh impetus to supply chain diversification. ASEAN has been and will continue to be the main beneficiary of the growing trend in supply chain diversification and the relocation of manufacturing from China. Pauline noted that although many think of the US-China trade war as driving supply chain diversification, it has been happening long before the trade war.
    • Big multinationals are already moving towards a more regionalised approach to their supply chains, keeping them contained as much as possible in each geographical market. These structural changes will remain long after the pandemic.
    • American companies are not the only ones looking to set up hubs in ASEAN. Japan has earmarked US$2 billion to help its companies shift production and companies from South Korea to Taiwan, are looking to restructure their supply chains.
  • Investment – neutral destination
    • ASEAN’s latest attraction is its perceived neutrality as an investment destination as geopolitical change continues to transform global markets. This perception has helped boost foreign investment into ASEAN; the region attracted a record US$177 billion in FDI in 2019, surpassing China which took in only US$140 billion.
    • All the investment money will be looking for a home as the technology squabble between the US and China heats up and reshapes industries affected by the change, such as the semiconductor sector.
    • If ASEAN as a group plays its cards right, for example, by enhancing its worker training, improving transport links, rapidly adopting technology and automation, and so on, it will see more global investment dollars coming its way.
  • Manufacturing – China Plus One
    • Diversification and relocation do not mean that China will no longer be in the picture. China is still very much in the picture but the China Only model is being replaced by new strategies such as the China Plus One model.
    • The idea is to diversify China operations by adding another location in Asia. For example, it could be China Plus Vietnam, or China Plus Malaysia. This strategy reduces operating cost, diversifies workforces at supply chains and could even increase access to new markets.
    • Vietnam has, for some time, been the “plus one” for multinationals transitioning out of China and this occurred even before the US-China trade war. Low value and labour intensive work in industries such as garments and footwear have been moving quietly over the Chinese border to Vietnam and Cambodia.


c. ASEAN needs to leverage its strength as a group in a multi-polar world

The longer-term challenge for ASEAN would be to successfully deal with the tectonic shifts underway in trade finance and global alliance. “Despite the talk of integration, ASEAN is still seen, at least from the outside, as a loose grouping of 10 nations, each with its own priorities, its own bilateral trade pacts, its own approach to security, its own approach, at least initially, to the pandemic,” said Pauline. “As individual players, ASEAN member nations have very little standing but as a group, it could leverage its combined strength for more advantages in a multi-polar world.”

Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, Chairman of CARI, agreed with Pauline that ASEAN sells itself short. He noted that ASEAN businesses and joint business councils are currently trying to get the regional bloc to get its act faster during the post-COVID-19 economic recovery phase. A proposal has been made for the setting up of a High-Level Special Commission to speed up the decision-making process in ASEAN.

3) China and the post-pandemic global economic outlook


a. The outcome of the US-China trade war still has a role to play

The consensus is that the world is facing the worst recession outside of wartime in 100 years. The latest data shows that the two key gauges of global trade and manufacturing activity are deep in recession. The real question is, whether we are in a short, sharp shock, or prolonged economic pain?

The outlook to the global economy, however, can’t be discussed without mentioning US-China relations. Pauline opines that US-China relations are bad and are on the way to getting worse. “The fight is no longer about trade; it is now a full-on competition for global dominance,” she said. How the US-China standoff plays out will be just as important to the outlook for global economic growth.


b. Economic uncertainties should be viewed in the regional, local context

For a question as broad as to how the global economy, comprising 195 countries, will recover, to say “we don’t know” seems quite reasonable. When one looks at the world simply as a market, then all the economic uncertainties should be viewed in context, said Pauline.

“Politics and economics may be global but business is always local. Who trades with 195 countries? The opportunities in Shanghai are very different than that of Beijing and definitely very different from Wuhan,” she further explained.

Those looking to benefit from the Chinese market should focus on the specific risks and opportunities of the city or province they are trading with, or investing in.


c. China will not implode

Markets have a tendency to evaluate China in black and white. One perception is that China is going to rebound quickly from the effects of the lockdown and go on a continuous expansion. Another perception is that China is facing huge structural imbalances and has its economy weight down by debt and will, therefore, implode.

Pauline pointed out that the real world is not quite as simple or tidy. “Truth is often perched precariously on an ever-shifting continuum. I hold a popular view that the Chinese economy is much less robust than die-hard China investors believe. I think that the slowing growth in recent years are due to structural, not cyclical factors. But this does not leave me to conclude that the Chinese economy is about to implode,” she said.

4) Conclusion

China is expected to experience a meaningful economic recovery but no earlier than 2021. Even though its government has already deployed unique policy tools unique to a command economy, the effects will only be seen next year. It should be noted, however, that due to the nature of a globalised world, China’s recovery will also depend upon the opening up of other major economies around the world. ASEAN stands to gain once China and the global economy recovers if it could leverage its strength as a group in relation to supply chain diversification, its advantage as a neutral investment destination and a China Plus One model for manufacturing supply chain.




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Media Release: Intra-ASEAN and open trade is vital to ASEAN’s post-COVID-19 recovery – the EU experience may offer a path forward for boosting the growth of intra-regional trade


Intra-ASEAN and open trade is vital to ASEAN’s post-COVID-19 recovery – the EU experience may offer a path forward for boosting the growth of intra-regional trade


From top: Paolo R. Vergano, Senior Fellow of CIMB ASEAN Research Institute and Partner at FratiniVergano – European Lawyers; and Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, Chairman of CIMB ASEAN Research Institute.

 

Kuala Lumpur, 23 June 2020 – CIMB ASEAN Research Institute (CARI) hosted a CARI Briefings webinar under its COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plan Series, titled ‘How Can ASEAN Bounce Back: An EU Perspective’. The session featured Paolo R. Vergano, Senior Fellow of CARI and Partner at FratiniVergano – European Lawyers, and key expert for trade facilitation in the ARISE Plus project of the ASEAN Regional Integration Support by the EU.

Moderated by Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid, Chairman of CARI, the discussion centred on ASEAN’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery through a trade and institutional perspective, and how ASEAN can draw lessons from the EU’s experience in fostering internal trade.


1. ASEAN cannot depend as much on external exports post-COVID-19, greater intra-regional trade is vital to its recovery

Paolo observed that even before many ASEAN countries underwent lockdowns to combat the spread of COVID-19, many already suffered from supply chain disruptions caused by China’s earlier lockdown in January 2020. According to IHS Markit’s PMI data, the disruption of raw materials, labour, and sub-assembly components caused ASEAN manufacturers to see their worst month on record in March 2020, with the headline PMI falling from 50.2 in February to a record low of 43.4 in March. Paolo cited April 2020 data from the World Trade Organization which projected world merchandise trade would drop by between 13% and 32% in 2020 due to COVID-19.1

Paolo argues that for the open economies of ASEAN, a significant drop in global trade may provide the impetus for policymakers to re-evaluate the bloc’s current over-reliance on external export markets. Paolo stresses there is much room for improvement with intra-ASEAN merchandise trade constituting 23% of total trade in the region in 2018, and points out that intra-regional trade could provide a hedge against future external trade shocks. Paolo draws comparisons with the European Union, observing that intra-European trade accounted for 69% of their total trade in 2018.2


2. Regulatory transparency is a key factor in facilitating greater regional economic integration

Noting that EU and ASEAN are structurally different, there are certain EU practices that are in line with those that ASEAN has already committed. As an example, EU’s trade policies and Preferential Trade Agreements, generally take transparency, enforcement mechanisms and stakeholder engagement (primarily from the private sector and non-governmental organisations) into stronger account.

“Regulatory transparency, for example, will be one of the key factors in facilitating greater regional economic integration, just as it has been for the EU,” observes Paolo. “Traders wishing to engage in cross-border trade must first be aware of the existing rules and opportunities, and understand their rights”.

There are also existing mechanisms that require greater utilisation to boost intra-ASEAN trade. For instance, as part of their efforts to foster greater intra-regional trade through regulatory transparency, Paolo notes that ASEAN states have promoted the ASEAN Solutions for Investments, Services and Trade (ASSIST). Paolo explains that ASSIST is one of the mechanisms through which ASEAN policymakers hope to elicit the support of the private sector in removing non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and streamlining non-tariff measures (NTMs), expediting solutions for specific intra-ASEAN cross-border trading problems encountered by ASEAN’s based small-and-medium enterprises.


3. Free and open trade remains vital for both ASEAN and EU economies

Contrary to recent narratives of the death of globalisation, Paolo stresses that the global response to COVID-19 by many countries was a combination of both restricting certain trade while maintaining or facilitating others. While public lockdowns and travel restrictions have inevitably caused downward pressures on international trade, maintaining free and open trade has been vital for both ASEAN and EU economies to remain afloat and ensure continued access to vital goods.

Paolo observes that for both blocs, preserving supply chain connectivity (particularly internally) has been identified by both ASEAN and the EU as key goals in their larger response to COVID-19. During the Special ASEAN Summit held on 14 April, 2020, ASEAN Economic Ministers (AEMs) and Senior Economic Officials (SEOMs) were tasked with finding ways to preserve trade connectivity, particularly in relation to the smooth flow of essential goods such as medicine, food, and essential supplies. After the initial shock, the European Commission worked well and fast with EU Member States to establish priority lanes for the transport of goods, to ensure the continued flow of essential goods and services.3


Conclusion

Tan Sri Munir, in his closing remarks, concurred that the real lessons to heed from COVID-19, especially for middle-powers like the EU and ASEAN, should be the continuing relevance of global openness and free trade. These will be particularly pertinent as countries struggle to return to pre-COVID-19 growth numbers while having to respond to increasing public skepticism over the benefits of globalisation. The pandemic has exacerbated geo-economic tensions between great powers, with regional blocs like the EU and ASEAN being increasingly pressured to choose sides at the expense of their own internal cohesion.

“COVID-19 should ultimately serve as a wake-up call for ASEAN that greater regional integration is not some faraway luxury to consider, but increasingly a strategic necessity for a region that wants to preserve its economic vitality and geostrategic independence,” concludes Tan Sri Munir.

“Notwithstanding our different internal dynamics and histories, the trade and institutional experiences of the EU can impart lessons which ASEAN must pay attention to.”



1 IHS Markit, ‘IHS Markit ASEAN Manufacturing PMI: PMI tumbles to record low in March amid global COVID-19 pandemic’, April 2020; World Trade Organization, ‘Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy’, April 2020.
2 ASEAN, ‘ASEAN Key Figures 2019, EUROStat
3 CIMB ASEAN Research Institute, ‘Special Update: ASEAN Summit and ASEAN+3 Summit On COVID-19’, April 2020, European Union; ‘The common EU response to COVID-19’

CARI Captures 459: Global competitiveness ranking shows Singapore retaining the top spot



 

ASEAN

Global competitiveness ranking shows Singapore retaining the top spot
(16 June 2020) Singapore has retained the number one spot in the Institute for Management Development’s (IMD) 2020 World Competitiveness Ranking. The ranking covers 63 economies and results are determined using hard data and responses from business executives’ perception of their respective country’s economy. According to IMD, Singapore’s strong economic performance from robust international trade and investment, employment, and labour market measures played key roles in determining the country’s score. Other ASEAN countries, on the other hand, fell in their rankings. Indonesia dropped eight places to 40 while the Philippines dropped one spot to 46. Although Malaysia and Thailand saw a drop in rankings as well, they remain in the top 30. Rounding up the top five competitive markets after Singapore are Denmark, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Hong Kong.

INDONESIA

Malaysia’s economy expected to recover starting from end-2020
(17 June 2020) Indonesia is seeking to double down on peatland fire prevention and law enforcement following the massive fires that ravaged much of Indonesia’s forests in 2019. The country’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) estimates that the 2020 drought season will start in June and peak in August, warning that dry conditions will typically induce hot spots. As the country enters the dry season, the Environment and Forestry Ministry has been creating artificial rain to prevent peatland fires in several fire-prone areas, with the help of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) and BMKG. Ministry data showed that 1.65 million ha of forest and land burned in 2019, second only to the 2.61 million ha that burned during the 2015 massive fires while the 2020 figure currently stands at 38,772ha.

INDONESIA

All public transport and flights allowed to operate at full capacity
(18 June 2020) Indonesia’s central bank is expected to resume lowering interest rates after a two-month pause as the economy continues to slow down due to COVID-19. Out of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 15 of them believe that Bank Indonesia will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on 18 June to 4.25%, adding to the 50 basis points of cuts made in the beginning of 2020. The country’s GDP is expected to contract 3.1% in the second quarter of 2020, while the government has lowered its growth projections for 2020 to between 0% and 1%. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s rupiah has gained more than 5% over the past month to be the best performer in Asia.

THAILAND

Myanmar lays out three-phase recovery plan to reinvigorate tourism industry
(18 June 2020) The central bank of Thailand will prototype a new payment system for businesses based on the digital currency system it is developing called Project Inthanon. First announced in 2018, the project is a collaboration between the Bank of Thailand and eight of Thailand’s financial institutions and is aimed at developing a wholescale central bank digital currency (CBDC). The goals of the new payment systems for businesses are to study the feasibility of the CBDC and develop a process of integrating it with Thailand’s business platforms. As part of the project, the CBDC prototype will be integrated with the procurement and financial management system of the Siam Cement Public Company, beginning in July and set to conclude by the end of 2020.

MALAYSIA

Thailand’s property market strengthening
(17 June 2020) Malaysia’s Islamic finance sector is projected to sustain double-digit growth to reach almost US$700 billion (RM3 trillion) in 2020 under the second Capital Market Masterplan, according to Bursa Malaysia chairman Abdul Wahid Omar. As of March 2020, Shariah funds valued at US$39.8 billion (RM170 billion) represented 23% of total industry asset under management (AUM) while Shariah unit trust fund’s net asset value (NAV) of US$23.1 billion (RM99 billion) represented about 23% of the overall industry NAV. “Continued promotion by the asset management industry can help contribute to a greater awareness of Shariah investing to a broader group of investors,” Wahid said during his keynote address at the Shariah Investing Virtual Conference 2020 on 17 June. Malaysia is the third-largest market for global Islamic finance products and the world’s largest sukuk issuer. In 2019, the country ranked first in terms of Islamic funds AUM with 34% of the global share.

CAMBODIA, SOUTH KOREA

Philippine-Japan trade fall by more than half in April 2020
(15 June 2020) South Korea plans to launch negotiations for a free trade agreement with Cambodia in July, top officials announced on 15 June. Trade between South Korea and Cambodia has been increasing in recent years. Exports from South Korea saw a 5.5% increase to US$6969 million in 2019, while its imports from Cambodia increased 6.8%. The main trading items between the two countries consist of textiles and apparel. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki, the proposal for an FTA with Cambodia was raised in March 2019 as part of South Korea’s New Southern Policy while a joint feasibility study and related public hearing were completed in late May and 12 June, respectively. In May 2020, the country’s exports slipped for a third consecutive month, showing a drop of 23.7%, weighed down by risks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

SINGAPORE

Japan Credit Rating Agency upgrades Philippine credit rating to A-
(18 June 2020) The public bus industry in Singapore is looking to increase the hiring of local workers, with the aim of hiring 1,200 bus drivers in 2020. Some 300 Singaporeans have been recruited as bus drivers so far this year. The 10,000 bus drivers currently in the workforce are made up of a “healthy mix” of both local and foreign bus drivers. The industry is also looking to hire about 200 permanent residents. This would result in a 14% increase in the bus driver workforce. According to Minister for Transport Khaw Boon Wan, the COVID-19 pandemic reportedly provides a “golden opportunity” to increase hiring among Singaporeans whose jobs have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. National Transport Workers’ Union executive secretary Melvin Yong said that between 2016 and 2019, more than 600 locals joined the public bus industry.

VIETNAM

Pertamina signs deal with Taiwan’s CPC to develop petrochemical complex
(18 June 2020) Over the last week, Vietnam approved a US$9.3 billion tourist resort project in the coastal Can Gio district 50 km south of Ho Chi Minh City and slated for completion in 2031. It is Vietnam’s biggest commercial project so far in 2020, and is led by Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest conglomerate. Vietnam hopes to maintain a record pace of public and private investment since January 2020. The project had to wait years for government approval due to civil society groups and environmental activists warning of the environmental risks associated with it. The IMF has cut its economic growth projections for Vietnam to 2.7% in 2020, although Vietnam hopes to achieve an expansion of more than 5.0%.

LAOS

Government unveils digital economy masterplan
(18 June 2020) Even as the country recorded no new confirmed COVID-19 cases for 67 consecutive days, the Lao government continues to implement preventive measures and monitor people entering the country to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 outbreak. Those entering Laos, especially returning workers, will be sent to quarantine centres for 14 days, while the temperature of each person entering Laos will be checked. On 17 June, a total of 1,930 people entered Laos through international border checkpoints and from this number, 1,348 people crossed the border with Thailand. A total of 49 people entered Laos from China, while 527 people entered Laos from Vietnam, according to the Lao Ministry of Health. Laos announced its first two COVID-19 confirmed cases on 24 March, and the last patient was discharged on 9 June.

INDONESIA, AUSTRALIA

Singapore facing its most severe economic recession due to COVID-19
(18 June 2020 Indonesia will receive US$4.2 million from Australia in support of its COVID-19 response and recovery. The money will go towards strengthening Indonesia’s laboratories, improving the way it collects and uses health information, and protecting patients and health workers. Australia’s ambassador to Indonesia stated that both countries are well-positioned to overcome these challenges together, and that Australia intends to support Indonesia’s immediate critical health security efforts in collaboration with the World Health Organization. Other parties have also pledged to aid Indonesia in its fight to contain the pandemic. Last week, the United Nations announced that it would contribute US$2 million to support Indonesia in its COVID-19 Multi-Partner Trust Fund while New Zealand announced in May that it would contribute US$3 million to Indonesia’s COVID-19 preparedness, response and recovery efforts through the UN’s Children’s Fund Indonesia.

Mekong Monitor: Thai government approves five investment projects worth US$1.34 billion


Photo credit: Pixabay

 

TRADE, ECONOMY, AND INVESTMENT

 

THAILAND

Thai government approves five investment projects worth US$1.34 billion
(17 June 2020) Thailand’s government has approved five investment projects worth US$1.34 billion, as well as measures to strengthen the agricultural sector. According to a statement by the Board of Investment, the projects included a pledge by Thai Oil to invest US$773.6 million to produce 250 megawatts of electricity using oil waste, and a pledge by B Grimm Power to spend US$192.6 million on a natural gas-fired power plant. Summitr Group will invest US$176.5 million to produce 30,000 electric battery-powered vehicles a year. Furthermore, Envico will invest US$79.3 million to produce recycled plastic pellets, while Bangkok Arena will spend US$120.4 million to build a convention hall. The state investment agency also stated that they had also adjusted investment promotion terms and benefits for the agricultural sector to encourage the usage of technology and innovation.
Read more>>

THAILAND

Thai government plans to sell US$6.42 million worth of blockchain-based bonds
(17 June 2020) Thailand’s Public Debt Management Office (PDMO), which comes under Thailand’s Ministry of Finance, announced plans to sell US$6.42 million worth of savings bonds through a blockchain-based e-wallet issued by state-owned Krung Thai Bank. According to a Ministry of Finance statement released on 16 June, distributing the bonds through a blockchain e-wallet was about improving the efficiency of the government system and an investment in a true digital economy. Using blockchain technology also allowed the debt office to reduce the face value of the bonds. The bond issuance is a pilot project by the government to improve financial inclusion by making it easier for people to subscribe to government-issued bonds.
Read more>>

MYANMAR

Myanmar expects worst of economic impact from COVID-19 starting September 2020
(16 June 2020) Myanmar’s de-facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi stated that the most severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic would occur in the final four months of 2020. She also said that the government is “well prepared” to address the impact through inclusive cooperation, during a panel discussion via video conference on 16 June. Myanmar is also expected to receive US$1.25 billion in emergency loans from international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, said Myanmar’s investment and foreign economic relations minister Thaung Tun, during the same panel. According to the government, further loans may be approved in the future, taking the total to US$2 billion.
Read more>>

THAILAND

KKR-led consortium pays US$650 million for 6% stake in Vinhomes
(16 June 2020) A consortium led by US global investment firm KKR has paid US$650 million for a 6% stake in Vinhomes, the property arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup, making it Vietnam’s largest private equity investment yet. The consortium included Singapore state investment fund Temasek, and underscored Vietnam’s attraction as an investment destination. Vinhomes largely constructs high-rise and villa developments for middle-class and wealthy buyers. Property projects have stalled in Vietnam in the wake of COVID-19 and the subsequent slowdown in planning approvals in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
Read more>>

VIETNAM

Vietnam hopes to attract manufacturing from China through EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement
(17 June 2020) Vietnam’s National Assembly approved a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on 8 June, and hopes to leverage upon it to attract manufacturing relocation from China. The trade agreement will take effect by August 2020, after having already been ratified by the EU. Vietnam’s National Assembly stated that interest in the trade agreement was influenced by its desire to secure customers in the European market after the COVID-19 pandemic. Vietnam’s exports to the EU market reached US$42 billion in 2019, while imports from the EU totalled US$15 billion in the same year. Vietnam’s export revenues to the EU is expected to rise by 42.7% by 2025 and 44.4% by 2030 compared with a no-deal scenario. The World Bank forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP will rise by 2.4% and lift exports by 12% by 2030 through the free trade agreement.
Read more>>

 


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About Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Programme was launched by the Asian Development Bank in 1992 connecting five developing ASEAN countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand, and Chinese provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. The region has some of the most robust economies sharing the Mekong River Basin thanks to its reform and liberalisation. The subregion is growing at a faster pace than the whole of East Asia and the Asia Pacific as the GDP growth rate for 2017 was at 6.4 percent, according to the World Bank. The population at the subregion as of 2016 is at 340 million while the GDP at PPP is at US$3.1 trillion in 2016. In 2015, trading within the region was at US$444 billion.

CARI Analysis: Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific more than halved due to COVID-19 but opportunities remain

 

CARI Analysis: Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific
more than halved due to COVID-19 but opportunities remain

Author: Aznita Ahmad Pharmy | Research Editor: Eleen Ooi Yi Ling
Webmaster: Nor Amirah Mohd Aminuddin | Research Director: Hong Jukhee

Synopsis
“CARI Analysis: Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific more than halved by COVID-19 but opportunities remain” looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected investment trends in healthtech in the region, startups that have performed well and what the remaining months of 2020 could potentially hold for this sector.

(This article contains 5 charts and best viewed on a desktop or horizontally on your mobile.)


KEY MESSAGES

a) Healthtech was the third-largest sub-sector in global healthcare private equity investment in 2019, with Asia Pacific in third place in terms of healthcare investment raised.
b) Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific in the first quarter of 2020 fell 56% year-on-year to US$703 million. This is in contrast to the US, which had yet to feel the effects of COVID-19 and saw its healthtech investment rise 1.5 times to US$3.1 billion during the same period.
c) Among the sub-regions, Southeast Asia saw its healthtech investment decline by 68% while China saw a 78% drop. Only India and North East Asia saw an increase in investments. Out of the ASEAN countries, only Singapore made it into the top six countries to receive funding in the first quarter of 2020.
d) Healthtech firms in Asia Pacific that provide patient-centric solutions such as telemedicine were able to attract larger investments during the first quarter of 2020.
e) Healthtech investment outlook from the US and Asia Pacific for the remainder of 2020 suggests that private investment will continue and highly sought after healthtech subcategories include telemedicine.
f) To ensure a strong post-pandemic recovery for ASEAN, healthtech solutions, such as a regional tracking app, should be included in regional measures to mitigate the pandemic. To better prepare ASEAN against future health crises, a proper framework for the development of healthtech in the region must be included in the succeeding roadmap to the ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda for 2016 to 2020, and proposed Consolidated Strategy on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR).

1. 2019 saw an upward trend in global healthcare private equity investment with healthtech taking the third-largest subsector spot

The global healthcare sector saw increased private equity investment in 2019, with the value of total deals closed increasing by 14% to US$78.9 billion.1 There were a total of 313 healthcare deals in 2019, with the average deal value showing an increase of 25% and a total of 27 deals in which the deal value exceeded US$1 billion.2 A large portion of global investments went to healthcare providers, and biopharma, followed by healthtech.3

Across all the regions covered, healthtech4 was the third largest healthcare subsector. Described mainly as the convergence between healthcare and technology,5 examples of health technology (healthtech) include telemedicine, electronic medical record (EMR), remote monitoring and wellness apps.6 Total deal value in healthtech globally dropped to US$4.3 billion in 2019 from US$10.5 billion in 2018 but investment in healthtech tends to fluctuate over the long-term.7


a. North America remains the largest market in healthcare in 2019

  • North America captured the biggest share of private equity activities worth US$46.7 billion (Figure 1).
  • Intense competition for assets took place between many different entities, including large buyout funds, European funds, tech-focused funds and corporates.
  • There were no mega-deals or large public take-overs.
  • The provider sector remained the most active with deals 96 deals, equivalent to 60% of all deals in 2019.


b. Investors in Europe look for scaling opportunities as deal values increases

  • Total disclosed deal value in 2019 increased 10.7% to reach a new high of US$19.7 billion.
  • Some investors pursued scale across nearly all verticals in retail health while many smaller provider assets in non-traditional retail health verticals are building scale and are expected to reach a size that appeals to private equity funds.
  • The increase in total deal value was partially due to a US$10.1 billion carve-out7 of Nestlé Skin Health.
  • The region continues to show the trend of biopharma assets making up most of the deal values in Europe.


c. Healthcare investment in the Asia Pacific region was geographically more diverse, with investment in digital platforms as one of the emerging trends

  • Private equity investment in the healthcare sector in Asia Pacific in 2019 fell 29% to US$11.5 billion but when viewed over the long-term, the region continues to display a growth trajectory.
  • Investment in 2019 was more geographically diverse than before:
    • China, India and Australia represented 51% of the deals closed, compared with 90% in 2018.
    • Southeast Asia showed an increase of 21% in deals closed.8
  • The healthcare provider sector saw the most activity, with 29 deals closed, worth US$4.4 billion.
  • The three major emerging trends were:
    • the consolidation of healthcare providers to execute buy-and-build strategies and achieve scale.
    • investment in health-related digital platforms.
    • innovative solutions that would allow the region to close its healthcare gap.


d. Outside of Asia Pacific, healthcare investment deals centred on South America and the Middle East

  • The South American and the Middle East regions saw a total of six deals.
  • The only disclosed deal value in 2019 was the US$1 billion acquisition of Lumenis, an energy-based medical solutions provider, by Baring Private Equity Asia.

Even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, private equity investors were concerned of a global recession in the near term, followed by geopolitical conditions.9 The global private equity investment of the healthcare sector provides a bigger picture of which the healthtech sector makes up a small but steadily growing portion. In the Asia Pacific region, investment in digital platforms was one of the trends observed in healthcare private equity in 2019.

2. Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific hit by COVID-19



a. All subregions saw a decline in investment except for India and North East Asia

With the COVID-19 pandemic causing repercussions on economies around the globe, investment in healthtech in the region has been affected as well.

  • Healthtech investment in Asia Pacific declined in Q1 2020, a sharp contrast to the US which saw a strong start to 2020:
    • Asia Pacific’s healthtech investment in Q1 2020 fell 56% to US$703 million while its peers in the US saw its investment triple to US$3 billion (Figure 2). This was due to the region feeling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic before the US.10
    • Although the impact from COVID-19 is beginning to be felt across healthtech’s investment landscape in the Asia Pacific region, the full impact has yet to be seen, and it would be difficult to ascertain the full extent of capital flight.11

     

  • China and Southeast Asia saw a sharp drop in healthtech investment:
    • China saw a 78% drop in healthtech investment in Q1 2020, followed by Southeast Asia, which saw its investment decline by 66%.
  • India and North East Asia’s healthtech investment showed moderate growth:
    • The only regions which saw an increase were India and North East Asia which saw its investments increase 3.35 times and 30% respectively (Figure 3).

     


b. Two mega deals closed while share of total funding fell by more than half

The investments garnered in Asia Pacific in Q1 2020 were mainly generated by two mega deals, which exceeded US$100 million each. One of the deals was struck in China, the other in India and together, the two deals represented 36% of total funding, which was down 4% compared to the same period a year ago.

The share of total funding excluding the mega deals in Q1 2020 also shrunk to 53% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average deal value decreased by 31% to US$10.6 million, most likely reflecting a global downward trend in valuations.


c. China captured the largest total deal value in the region, with regional investment focused mainly on agnostic disease ventures

In terms of total deal value, China leads the Asia Pacific region with US$280 million, followed by India (US$251 million) and South Korea (US$66 million).

Out of the ASEAN countries, only Singapore made it into the top six countries in receiving funding in Q1 2020 with US$41 million.

  • Healthtech investment in the Asia Pacific region mainly targeted agnostic disease ventures (32%). Agnostic disease ventures are those that do not focus on specific diseases.
  • Under disease-specific solutions, investments poured into chronic diseases (cardiovascular (9%), diabetes (8%)), oncology (11%) and preventive health (8%) (Figure 4).
  • In Q1 2020, a total of 141 individual investors participated across 68 deals compared with the 182 individual investors that participated in 99 deals12 in Q1 2019.

3. Healthtech investment trends in Asia Pacific show bright spots for startups that address COVID-19 needs



a. Patient-centric solutions among those that outperformed the market

The COVID-19 outbreak is expected to have a substantial economic impact and accelerate the creation of new business models. It has already affected healthtech firms’ revenues and patients, making the development and adoption of patient-centric digital health solutions a priority for both public and private health sectors. The impact is expected to be felt across all the healthcare industry for 6 to 12 months and potentially beyond.15

Digital health solutions that address issues posed by the pandemic saw large increases in investments in Q1 2020; telemedicine’s deal value increased 8.47 times compared to Q1 2019, the largest increase among all healthtech services.16 The other two sub-sectors that saw an increase were health insurtech (42%) and patient solutions (18%).17 Other services such as remote monitoring, medical diagnostics and health management solutions saw an increase in investments.18


b. The emergence of tracking applications in response to COVID-19

The pandemic has also led to the creation of a new category of health solution: contact tracing or tracking apps. Governments are introducing applications to track and trace contamination and adapt privacy laws. Table 1 shows some of the applications that have been rolled out in Asia Pacific.

 

Table 1: Tracking apps used by selected countries in Asia Pacific19

Country

App

Details

China

Existing App

The government has used existing applications, including Alipay, WeChat and Tencent
Healthcare to track people’s interactions and perform contact tracing.

India

Aarogya Setu

Developed by the government of India, the mobile application uses Bluetooth technology to connect essential health services with the people in its fight against COVID-19.

Singapore

TraceTogether

Developed by the Government Technology Agency (GovTech) in collaboration with the Ministry of Health (MOH), the app works by exchanging short-distance Bluetooth signals between mobile phones that have the app installed.

Malaysia

MyTrace and
MySejahtera

Developed by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Information (MOSTI), the app uses Bluetooth to measure how long a user’s phone has been in proximity with other MyTrace users.
If a user is diagnosed with COVID-19, this would allow the authorities to track and contact those who might have contracted it from them.20

Indonesia

PeduliLindungi

Created by the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, the app cross-references the data stored on its users’ mobile devices through Bluetooth connection.

Vietnam

Bluezone

Created by technology firm Bkav, the app uses Bluetooth to link with smartphones within a two-meter distance and will notify its users if they came within two meters of a COVID-19 patient in the past 14 days.21

The Philippines

Staysafe.ph

Created by the National Task Force (NTF) COVID-19 and information technology company Multisys Technologies Corporation.22 The online platform consisting of a website and a mobile application will generate a heat map for infections using self-reported information.23


c. Prominent healthtech deals in Asia Pacific in Q1 2020 shine a spotlight on telemedicine and diagnostics

The decline in year-on-year healthtech funding did not stop the following startups from capturing a healthy dose of investment. Healthtech firms that are patient-centric managed to bring in larger investments (Table 2).

 

Table 2: Major healthtech investments in Asia Pacific in Q1 2020

Startup

Country

Amount

Stage

Category

Investors

Patient-centric Investments

ZY Health

China

US$143 million

Series D

Patient solutions

Tasly Holding Group, LBInvestment

DoctorAnywhere

Singapore

US$27 million

Series B

Telemedicine

Square Peg, EDBI, IHH
Healthcare

R&D and Diagnostics Investments

3D Medicine

China

US$40 million

Series F1

Medical diagnostics

China Resources
Pharmaceutical Industry
Investment Fund

Lunit

South Korea

US$25.9 million

Series C

Research

IMM Investment, InterVest,
Kakao Ventures

Notes:

  • Early stage: all deals up to and including Pre-A stage
  • Growth stage: Series A, B & C stages
  • Late stage: Series D & beyond stages
  • Exit stage: all IPO and M&A deals


d. Healthtech firms in Asia Pacific that are performing well during the COVID-19 pandemic

DoctorAnywhere
(Patient-centric solution)

doctoranywhere

Photo credit: DoctorAnywhere

Singapore’s Doctor Anywhere received US$27 million in Series B funding:

  • The company intends to use it for extensive expansion to augment the region’s healthcare landscape through digital transformation, with the support of strong local and regional partners. 24
  • Apart from Singapore, the telehealth company operates in Thailand and Vietnam.

In April 2020, it announced the launch of the COVID-19 Medical Advisory Clinic. 25

  • Without having to physically go to a clinic, patients can have a video consultation and speak to a doctor within five minutes.
  • The CEO and founder of Doctor Anywhere, Lim Wai Mun, said the business has seen a two-to-threefold jump in growth since the COVID-19 outbreak started. 26

Lunit
(Diagnostics)

lunit

Photo credit: Lunit

  • South Korea’s Lunit received US$25.9 million in Series C funding in Q1 2020, the largest funding it has received since its US$15 million Series B funding in 2019.
  • The firm develops AI-powered analysis of lung diseases via chest x-ray images and will use the latest round of funding to bankroll the global expansion of its chest X-ray and mammography products, and its other AI solutions. 27
  • With shortages and delays in standard COVID-19 tests, chest x-rays have become one of the fastest and most affordable ways for doctors to triage patients (the sorting of patients based on urgency of care).
  • Lunit’s AI-powered software recently helped a teleradiology firm in France scan patients and calculate a probability of COVID-19 infection within 10 minutes. 28
  • In March 2020, the firm announced the release of its software online, free of charge, to help healthcare professionals manage COVID-19. 29

Looking at the progress of healthtech firms like Doctor Anywhere and Lunit, there are ways for healthtech firms to not only stay afloat during this time of uncertainty, but also pursue opportunities to improve patients’ quality of living and ultimately, save lives.

As mentioned before, the Q1 2020 results do not truly reflect the impact of COVID-19 on healthtech investments in Asia Pacific and therefore, we will look at more recent data obtained in the US since it is the largest healthcare market globally, to have some insight into what the future could portend for healthtech investments in Asia Pacific.

4. Outlook for the remainder of 2020 shows investment will continue with telemedicine anticipated to be a favoured asset



a. Healthtech investment outlook in the US expected to be poor but undeployed funds factors may buffer overall impact

The US had its strongest start ever in healthtech investment in 2020 by bringing in US$3.1 billion during the first quarter, according to Rock Health data.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the US in February 2019 and the twin crises of a global pandemic and massive economic shifts are expected to rapidly impact all market sectors, including healthtech.

A survey of 12 leading healthcare investors conducted between 16-20 March by Rock Health30 provides an early indication of healthtech31 investment trends in the US going forward:32

    • i. Access to capital will be limited
      Two thirds of the respondents felt that healthtech startups will have a “much harder time” raising capital in 2020 than they did in 2019. Sequoia Capital noted that COVID-19 has and will cause supply chain disruptions, reductions in growth forecasts and changes in hiring plans.

 

    • ii. Access to private capital won’t contract as rapidly as public capital
      Most of the investors surveyed will not be reducing the amount of capital they intend to invest in 2020; only three “somewhat agreed” to the statement that said they would deploy less capital than anticipated at the beginning of 2020.The advantage of several years of heightened VC and private equity (PE) fundraising is that firms collectively possess a large amount of dry powder (funds that have been raised but not yet deployed). This may, to some extent, help alleviate the near-term market shock on the availability of capital to entrepreneurs.

 

    • iii. Healthtech is in a unique position to expand the capacity of a strained healthcare system
      According to Rock Health, the acute mismatch between supply and demand is the most significant problem facing healthcare today, particularly the human capital (medical doctors and nurses) mismatch during the pandemic. Healthtech firms offer technologies that support the delivery of virtual healthcare, scaling the medical workforce, and the acceleration of R&D for diagnostics and treatments.Investors surveyed anticipate growth in remote monitoring, symptom checkers and triage tools (Figure 5). Telemedicine, in particular, has been deployed at the front lines of the pandemic. Rock Health’s annual Digital Health Consumer Adoption Survey found the use of live video telemedicine has increased 4.5 times in 2019 from 2015.

 

  • iv. A dim outlook for IPOs and M&As in 2020
    An impending recession would no doubt diminish public investor appetite for initial public offerings (IPOs). All but one of the investors surveyed felt that the healthtech IPO window is shut for 2020. However, those same investors were slightly less aligned in their predictions about the M&A market. Two thirds of the respondents believe “market volatility will significantly slow down digital health M&A activity.”33


b. Healthtech investment outlook in Asia Pacific – gloomy prospects ahead but providers of critical products and services expected to perform well

The above findings provide a snapshot of how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected healthtech investment in the US and how it will affect future investments. In Asia Pacific, the following insights emerged:34

    • i. Digital healthcare businesses have become a hidden gem
      Private equity investors and venture capitalists are seeking under-the-radar picks that include digital healthcare businesses. Healthtech is expected to remain a key focus of investors even after the pandemic subsides. According to Lip Kian Ang, a partner at a Singapore-based law firm, the healthcare, medical R&D and pharmaceutical industries will likely be high on the list of priorities for private equity companies for the next five-year plan.

 

    • ii. The rise of specific sub-sectors – telemedicine and online pharmacies
      Private investment firm Fundnel has seen a surge in investors enquiring about investing in healthtech. Telemedicine and online pharmacies have become especially popular for sector-focused venture capital funds that allow investors to diversify their allocations into specific themes.

 

  • iii. The necessity of tech-based value-chain businesses
    The recent health crisis has highlighted the importance of keeping the supply chain going especially for vital industries such as healthcare. One venture capitalist said that COVID-19 had helped to “open up opportunities in weakened offline value chains” in any sector which continues to rely on traditional methods, and this may push the adoption of tech-enabled solutions.35 Vynn Capital foresees the tech industry working more closely with traditional sectors as corporates will need to invest in improving the supply chain.

From observing the healthtech investment outlook for 2020 for the US and Asia Pacific, two similar points emerge:

    • i. Private investment into the healthtech sector will continue although with a few differences:

      • Investment in the healthtech sector in the US will be from venture capital and private equity funds that have already raised funds but have yet to deploy them.
      • In Asia, venture capitalists and private equity investors are looking to invest in under-the-radar picks such as digital healthcare businesses.

 

  • ii. Telemedicine has become particularly popular among investors:

    • It was among the sub-sectors anticipated to see growth in 2020 according to investors surveyed in the US
    • Singaporean telemedicine firm Doctor Anywhere raised US$27 million in Series B funding in the first quarter of 2020.

5. Conclusion

Most ASEAN-level discussions at the moment are understandably focused on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic but ASEAN must also plan for the future to be better prepared should a similar crisis occur again.


a. Healthtech can advance inclusive and affordable healthcare in ASEAN

Healthtech has the potential to meet the evolving and varying healthcare needs of Southeast Asia.36 The onset of COVID-19 amplified this point even further. A Deloitte report released in April 2020 anticipates the pause in healthtech investments in the US to be temporary37 and this may also be the case in Asia and by extension, Southeast Asia. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped to highlight the importance of healthtech, which is now front and centre economically, politically, and socially. Under the current situation, emphasis on healthtech, particularly virtual health is expected to continue.


b. Healthtech should be included in ASEAN’s future frameworks and strategies

Intra-ASEAN COVID-19 tracking system

Outside of ASEAN’s official frameworks and strategies, the inclusion of healthtech in any regional measures whether to fight the pandemic or support a post-pandemic recovery plan could be beneficial. For example, the use of an intra-ASEAN tracking system would allow regional travel to safely resume while insurtech could expand coverage in a time of rising healthcare expenses.

ASEAN Health Sector Cooperation

As a regional bloc, ASEAN has several regional health mechanisms put in place by the ASEAN Health Sector Cooperation that covers areas including public health emergencies, epidemiology training network, big data analytics and visualisation, and public health laboratories network. 38

ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2015 and 2025

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint 2015 lists healthcare services as one of four prioritised sectors to be liberalised by 2010 and the subsequent AEC Blueprint 2025 focuses on strategic measures that would promote the development of a strong healthcare industry. 39 In both the AEC Blueprint 2025 and AEC 2025 Consolidated Strategic Action Plan (CSAP), the promotion of potential high growth sectors such as health tourism and e-healthcare services is mentioned.

ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda 2016-2020

The ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda for 2016 to 2020 covers the shared goals, strategies, priorities and programmes of the health sector between 2016-2020.40 For the succeeding health development agenda, it is recommended that healthtech is added to clusters related to healthcare system resilience and accessibility.

Recommendations for succeeding ASEAN frameworks

To include healthtech in future ASEAN frameworks, the following will need to be considered:

  • The definition of “healthtech” needs to be properly defined in all ASEAN documentation going forward. The current definition of “healthtech” varies amongst member states, and the alignment will ensure that all parties share the same understanding of the definition of “healthtech” . This is crucial to prevent healthtech being left out of master plans or having duplicate entries.
  • As healthtech covers a relatively large scope, prioritisation of relevant categories under the sector such as telemedicine, online pharmacies and remote monitoring should be done to ensure a more targeted and effective approach.
  • The concept note on the promotion of health tourism and e-healthcare services developed under the CSAP should be developed further and include healthtech.
  • The promotion of public-private partnership (PPP) investments for the provision of universal healthcare41 under the CSAP should be extended to specifically include healthtech as this can spur PPP investment in healthtech areas beneficial for the region.

 

Inclusion in the Consolidated Strategy on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)

It would be prudent to include healthtech in the proposed Consolidated Strategy on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) as well. ASEAN needs a proper framework for the development of its healthtech sector so as to not squander the progress that has already been made and to ensure the region is able to harness 4IR technologies to provide quality and affordable healthcare for its people.



Footnotes

1 Bain & Company, “Global Healthcare Private Equity and Corporate M&A Report 2020,” March 2020.
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid.
4 The original Bain & Company report used the term “medtech and related services.” For consistency in this report, “medtech and related services” is used as an approximation of healthtech.
5 Deloitte Insights, “Health tech investment trends: How are investors positioning for the future of health?” March 12, 2020.
6 Galen Growth, “Asia Pac Healthtech Investment Landscape Q1 2020 COVID-19 Special,” January 2020.
7 Bain & Company, “Global Healthcare Private Equity and Corporate M&A Report 2020,” March 2020.
8 According to Investopedia, a carve-out is the partial divestiture of a business unit in which a parent company sells minority interest of a child company to outside investors.
9 Bain & Company, “Global Healthcare Private Equity and Corporate M&A Report 2020,” March 2020.
10 Based on a Preqin survey.
11 Galen Growth, “Asia Pac Healthtech Investment Landscape Q1 2020 COVID-19 Special,” January 2020.
12 Galen Growth, “Asia Pac Healthtech Investment Landscape Q1 2020 COVID-19 Special,” January 2020.
13 Agnostic disease ventures are those that do not focus on specific diseases.
14 Galen Growth, “Asia Pac Healthtech Investment Landscape Year-end 2019.”
15 Galen Growth, “Asia Pac Healthtech Investment Landscape Q1 2020 COVID-19 Special,” January 2020.
16 Ibid.
17 Ibid.
18 Ibid.
19 Ibid.
20 Malay Mail, “Gerak Malaysia, MySejahtera, MyTrace: Apps to get you through the MCO,” May 5, 2020.
21 VnExpress, “Vietnam develops coronavirus contact tracing app,” April 21, 2020.
22 Rappler, “PH launches online platform for virus contact tracing,” April 10, 2020.
23 Rappler, “LIST: Coronavirus contact tracing apps in the Philippines,” April 14, 2020.
24 MobiHealthNews, “Doctor Anywhere scores $27M in Series B funding round,” March 31, 2020.
25 MobiHealthNews, “Doctor Anywhere to launch COVID-19 Medical Advisory Clinic,” April 14, 2020.
26 ASEAN Today, “COVID-19 pushes healthcare technology transformation in Asia,” May 9, 2020.
27 Korea Tech Desk, “Korean Medical AI startup Lunit secures $26 million funding for global expansion,” January 14, 2020.
28 MIT Technology Review, “Doctors are using AI to triage covid-19 patients. The tools may be here to stay,” April 23, 2020.
29 Imaging Technology News, “Lunit Releases AI Online to Support Healthcare Professionals Manage COVID-19,” March 30, 2020.
30 Rock Health Investor Survey Q1 2020.
31 Healthtech is used in this article but the term “digital health” is used by Rock Health. The two terms have similar meanings. For consistency, this article will use the term “healthtech” throughout.
32 Rock Health, “Amidst a record $3.1B funding in Q1 2020, digital health braces for COVID-19 impact,” March, 2020.
33 Rock Health Investor Survey Q1 2020.
34 DealStreetAsia, “Asia’s private equity hunts for gems in the time of coronavirus,” March 25, 2020.
35 Ibid.
36 Monk’s Hill Ventures, “How Tech Will Meet Evolving Healthcare Needs in Southeast Asia,” November 12, 2019.
37 Deloitte, “COVID-19 could alter and even accelerate health-tech investment strategies,” April 10, 2020.
38 ASEAN, “ASEAN Plus Three senior health officials reaffirm cooperation to stop spread of 2019-nCoV,” February 4, 2020.
39 CARI, “AEC 2025 Blueprint Analysis on Healthcare,” May 19, 2017.
40 ASEAN, “ASEAN Health Ministers Meeting (AHMM) – Overview.”
41 ASEAN, “ASEAN Economic Community 2025 Consolidated Strategic Action Plan,” August 14, 2018.


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