Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s 2027 budget prioritizes household support amid rising energy costs and possible early elections
(09 October 2026) Malaysia’s 2027 budget totals MYR 459.8 billion, up 3.6% from the revised 2026 allocation of MYR 444.1 billion, with the government prioritising household support amid rising energy costs and possible early elections. The minimum monthly wage will increase from MYR 1,700 to MYR 2,000 from June 2027, while annual individual income tax relief will rise from MYR 9,000 to MYR 12,000, its first revision since 2010. Cash assistance for lower-income Malaysians will total MYR 16 billion, alongside expanded support for first-time homebuyers and small businesses. Malaysia’s 2027 GDP growth is forecast at 4.2% to 5.2%, while the 2026 growth outlook has been raised towards the upper end of the 4.8% to 5.3% range following 5.7% growth in the first half of 2026. Gross exports are projected to increase by 31% in 2026, supported by demand for technology products and semiconductors linked to the artificial intelligence boom. State-linked companies will continue investing in high-value industries, including data centres and support for local start-ups. Headline inflation is forecast at 1.8% to 2.8% in 2027, compared with a revised 2026 estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%. The budget comprises MYR 83 billion in development expenditure and MYR 376.8 billion in operating expenditure. Government revenue is projected to rise by 4.7% to MYR 380.8 billion, including MYR 32 billion in contributions from national energy company Petronas, whose dividend contribution will increase. Higher energy-related subsidies have prompted a revision of the 2026 fiscal deficit target from 3.5% to 3.6% of GDP, while the 2027 deficit is projected to decline to 3.3%. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim maintained that the increased spending would not derail medium-term fiscal consolidation.

INDONESIA
Jakarta Composite Index falls to three-month low amidst speculation of regulatory fines
(12 October 2026) Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index fell by as much as 2.9% to a three-month low amid speculation that the securities regulator could impose fines of hundreds of billions of rupiah on several coal and renewable-energy companies following an investigation. The unconfirmed reports, circulated by local media outlet Kontan and on social media, triggered negative sentiment among domestic retail investors, although the regulator had not commented. PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa and PT Barito Renewables Energy each fell by more than 14%, making them the largest drags on the benchmark, while the energy sector was the worst-performing sector. Investor confidence remains weak ahead of MSCI’s review of Indonesia’s market status next month, with foreign investors recording net stock sales in each of the past five weeks. The index has fallen more than 31% this year, making it the world’s worst-performing equity gauge. Traders remain concerned that MSCI could delay its decision further, prolonging market uncertainty. PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia expects the monitoring period for regulatory reforms to be extended, potentially deferring a resolution until May.

VIET NAM
Ministry of Finance develops two inflation scenarios for 2026, with inflation projected at between 4.5% and 4.8%
(12 October 2026) Viet Nam’s Ministry of Finance has developed two inflation scenarios for 2026, projecting inflation at 4.5% and 4.8%. The State Bank of Vietnam forecasts average annual inflation of 4.5% to 5%, while international organisations estimate 4.2% to 5.5%. Consumer price inflation averaged 4.52% year on year in the first nine months of 2026, while core inflation rose by 4.26%. To maintain price stability for the remainder of the year, the ministry proposed continuing appropriate tax and fee exemptions, reductions and deferrals, alongside prudent credit management and prioritised financing for production and business activities.

VIET NAM, LAO PDR
Viet Nam accounts for largest share of approved investments in Lao PDR in 2026
(12 October 2026) Lao PDR approved 45 investment projects worth USD 8.57 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with Vietnamese investments accounting for USD 4.7 billion, the largest share. At the Laos-Vietnam Investment Promotion Conference 2026 in Vientiane, Lao Prime Minister Saleumxay Kommasith and Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung pledged to strengthen economic, trade and investment cooperation. Saleumxay identified improvements to the business and investment environment as a priority and highlighted the Investment Promotion and Management Committee’s centralised, one-stop mechanism under the Prime Minister’s direct guidance. He also noted that private investment had exceeded planned targets and invited businesses to propose improvements to investment policies. Le Minh Hung encouraged Vietnamese companies to expand investments in Lao PDR, particularly in high-technology agriculture, mineral processing, clean energy, banking and finance, logistics, tourism and digital development. He also urged Lao businesses to explore investment opportunities in Viet Nam. Business representatives called for simpler administrative procedures and more efficient investment mechanisms. The conference concluded with the exchange of 18 investment-related documents to support further cooperation.

THAILAND
Thailand prioritizing investment-led growth to address sluggish economic expansion
(09 October 2026) Thailand is prioritising investment-led growth to address sluggish economic expansion, with investment at 22% to 23% of GDP compared with stronger levels before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Thailand’s economy grew by an average of 2.34% annually over the past five years, while Bangkok aims to achieve 3% growth within three years by attracting foreign investment into semiconductors, data centres, advanced manufacturing and electric vehicles. The central bank estimates potential growth at 2.7%, which could take at least four years to achieve. Thailand is also investing in renewable energy and electricity grid upgrades to support energy-intensive industries and improve its investment appeal. Key economic challenges include high household debt, declining tourist arrivals, an unresolved trade deal with the United States, and public debt approaching the official ceiling of 70% of GDP. Fitch Ratings revised Thailand’s outlook from negative to stable, citing resilience to the global energy shock, receding deflationary pressures, and improved policy predictability following the February 2026 general election. The re-election of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has also brought a period of relative political stability, supporting the government’s economic agenda. Bangkok intends to promote Thailand as a neutral and reliable investment destination that can connect economies amid geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation at the upcoming annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.

SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange woos European investors seeking to trade Asian government bond futures
(12 October 2026) Singapore Exchange (SGX) will introduce a one-hour bond-trading liquidity window at 17:00 Singapore time, equivalent to 10:00 London time, to help European investors trade Asian government bond futures during European working hours. The initiative aims to attract asset managers and market makers to improve trading activity and pricing visibility in its Asia-Pacific bond futures contracts. SGX launched government bond futures for India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines earlier in 2026, alongside 20-year Japanese government bond futures. However, trading volumes across its new Asia-Pacific contracts, excluding India, remained at zero through August, highlighting difficulties in developing offshore liquidity. SGX will also introduce a separate liquidity window for Indian investors from 11:00 to 12.30 Singapore time. The initiatives aim to address the lack of liquidity caused by asset managers waiting for visible prices while market makers hesitate to commit capital without sufficient demand.

INDONESIA
Consumer confidence index falls to 118.1 in September from 118.5 in August
(13 October 2026) Indonesia’s consumer confidence index fell to 118.1 in September 2026 from 118.5 in August, while remaining above the 100-point threshold for optimism. Bank Indonesia’s economic expectations sub-index rose to 128.7 from 127.6, but expectations for business activity declined to 121.5 from 122.1. The current economic conditions sub-index dropped to 107.5 from 109.4, reflecting weaker assessments of income and job availability. Households earning IDR 1 million to 2 million reported pessimistic income assessments, with the index falling to 99.9, while their durable goods purchasing index remained below the optimism threshold at 94.7 despite rising from 89.9. The retail sales index is projected to decline 2.3% month-on-month to 221.3 points in September from 226.5 in August, mainly due to weaker food, beverage and tobacco sales. However, retail sales are expected to rise 1.4% year-on-year, following 1.3% growth in August, supported by other goods, household equipment, and cultural and recreational goods. Retailers expect sales to increase in November before declining in February 2027 amid anticipated inflationary pressure. BMI Research forecasts real household spending growth of 5.5% in 2026, slowing to 4.9% in 2027. It expects the US-Iran conflict to be resolved in the first quarter of 2027, while external pressures on fuel prices, inflation and interest rates, alongside a potentially more hawkish monetary policy, could weigh on household spending and consumer confidence.