CARI Captures Issue 756: Three biggest foreign banks in Indonesia remit USD 640 million from country


Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.



INDONESIA
Three biggest foreign banks in Indonesia remit USD 640 million from country
(29 June 2026) The Indonesian units of Citigroup, Standard Chartered and HSBC remitted a combined IDR 11.5 trillion (USD 640 million) to their parent companies during 2024-2025, slightly exceeding their combined profits over the period. The remittance ratios were above historical averages, with Citigroup transferring nearly all of its combined 2024-2025 earnings, Standard Chartered remitting more than IDR 1.1 trillion in 2024, equivalent to almost four times its annual profit, and HSBC sending almost IDR 3 trillion in 2025 despite recording less than IDR 2.2 trillion in net income. According to bankers cited in the report, the higher remittances reflect reduced exposure to Indonesia amid concerns over President Prabowo Subianto’s increasingly state-focused economic policies, market volatility and pressure to support government priorities. Danantara, the state sovereign wealth fund overseeing assets valued at about USD 900 billion, reportedly sought commitments of up to USD 1 billion from each of 10 banks for a proposed USD 10 billion loan facility. The report also cited concerns over discussions on expanding banks’ role in financing government programmes, although Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) stated that lending decisions remain based on banks’ commercial judgement and that it does not intervene. The increased profit repatriation coincides with earlier reductions in Indonesian operations by the three banks, including Citigroup’s 2022 sale of its retail banking business, Standard Chartered’s 2023 divestment of a retail loan portfolio, and HSBC’s planned sale of its retail and wealth assets. Analysts also said the weaker rupiah has reduced the attractiveness of retaining earnings in Indonesia.

THE PHILIPPINES, CHINA
The Philippines courts Chinese investors from the Greater Bay Area
(30 June 2026) The Philippines’ Trade Secretary said at the South China Morning Post’s GBA-Asean Summit 2026 in Hong Kong that the Philippines is positioning itself as a gateway for Greater Bay Area businesses expanding into Southeast Asia, highlighting its strategic location, young English-speaking population of around 115 million, and digitally skilled workforce. She said the country could complement the Greater Bay Area’s research and development capabilities while providing a platform for regional expansion. As 2026 ASEAN chair, the Philippines is promoting stronger ASEAN-Hong Kong economic ties, with the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement completed in May and targeted for signing by November to support partnerships in e-commerce and digital innovation. The Secretary cited a 15.4% increase in Philippine exports in 2025 as evidence of strong demand for the country’s goods. She identified semiconductors, electronics, manufacturing services, renewable energy and agricultural exports including coconuts, pineapples, bananas, ube and kalamansi as priority sectors for collaboration with Hong Kong. The Philippine Economic Zone Authority approved PHP 140.7 billion (USD 2.3 billion) of investments in the first half of 2026, representing a 94% year-on-year increase. The Secretary noted that China remains the Philippines’ largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching USD 7.72 billion in April, comprising USD 5.69 billion of Chinese exports to the Philippines and USD 2.03 billion of Philippine exports to China.

THE PHILIPPINES
The Philippines approves record 12% minimum wage increase for more than 1.1 million workers
(30 June 2026) The Philippines approved a record 12% minimum wage increase for more than 1.1 million workers in Metro Manila, with the Labour Secretary stating that the adjustment will take effect in two stages: PHP 60 per day from 19 July and a further PHP 25 in January 2027. Once fully implemented, the daily minimum wage for non-agriculture workers will rise by PHP 85 to PHP 780, while wages for agriculture, service and retail establishments employing 15 workers or fewer, and manufacturing establishments with fewer than 10 workers, will increase by 13% to PHP 743 per day. The Department of Labour described the increase as the largest single wage adjustment ever granted in the capital region. The Trade Union Congress of the Philippines criticized the increase as insufficient and opposed its phased implementation, citing a decline in workers’ purchasing power. The wage adjustment follows inflation easing to 6.8% in May from a three-year high of 7.2% in April, although inflation remains above the central bank’s 4% tolerance ceiling.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s headline inflation increases to 2.0% in May 2026 from 1.9% in April
(30 June 2026) Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said headline inflation increased to 2.0% in May 2026 from 1.9% in April, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.0%. The increase was mainly driven by higher prices for electricity, following the imposition of a surcharge due to increased generation costs, and vegetables. The increase was partly offset by lower inflation for domestic air travel and retail fuel, particularly RON97 and diesel. Credit to the private non-financial sector grew 6.4% in May from 5.8% in April, supported by stronger business financing, with outstanding corporate bonds rising 8.0% from 6.2% and outstanding business loans increasing 7.0% from 6.2%, primarily for working capital. Household loan growth remained steady at 5.5%. Manufacturing industrial production growth accelerated to 8.3% in April from 5.5% in March, with export-oriented industries expanding 8.5% due to higher production of electrical and electronics, refined petroleum and chemical products, while domestic-oriented industries grew 8.0%, supported by motor vehicles, food processing and construction-related materials. BNM said the ringgit appreciated 0.1% against the US dollar despite global uncertainties related to the West Asia conflict and US Federal Reserve policy expectations, outperforming regional currencies. The 10-year Malaysian Government Securities yield remained broadly stable, while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined 2.3% due to non-resident outflows.

THE PHILIPPINES
Rising global demand for Philippines’ ube outpaces domestic supply
(30 June 2026) Rising global demand for the Philippines’ ube is outpacing domestic supply, with the president of the Bohol Ube Growers Association stating that his group produces between five and eight tonnes every seven months but cannot meet requests for two tonnes per month, with ubi kinampay currently selling for PHP 90-100 per kilogram. Philippine ube exports exceeded USD 3 million in 2025, more than double the USD 1.4 million recorded in 2024, with key markets including Canada, the Middle East, Asia, the US, South Korea and Europe. The Department of Agriculture has announced plans to institutionalise the ube industry through standardisation and export-ready systems, allocating PHP 2.6 million to expand production, while the US Department of Agriculture has committed USD 34 million to strengthen the ube value chain, including processing. The Bohol Ube Growers Association said its association recently received a harvesting facility enabling production of ube powder, extending shelf life and increasing its value to PHP 1,800 pesos per kilogram. Bohol has applied for geographical indication (GI) registration for ubi kinampay to protect its origin, quality and market identity amid expanding production in Viet Nam and China. Researchers from the Philippine Root Crop Research and Training Centre said ube has become a high-value export crop with yields potentially exceeding 3 kg per plant and up to 20,000 plants per hectare under intensive cultivation, although seasonal production, disease susceptibility and the limited adaptability of the kinampay variety continue to constrain supply. Researchers are developing cultivation techniques and alternative varieties to support year-round production and improve competitiveness in the global ube market.

VIET NAM
Vietnam Airlines aims to remain profitable despite more challenging environment
(30 June 2026) Vietnam Airlines aims to remain profitable in 2026 despite higher jet fuel prices, exchange rate volatility and rising operating, maintenance, logistics and environmental compliance costs. The airline estimates average Jet A1 fuel prices of USD 128.54 per barrel in 2026, up nearly 48% from 2025, increasing fuel costs by an estimated VND 11.9 trillion, although prices have eased to USD 112-115 per barrel following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a US-Iran ceasefire. Assuming fuel prices average USD 120 per barrel in the second half of 2026, Vietnam Airlines forecasts pre-tax profit of VND 101 billion for the parent company and VND 510 billion on a consolidated basis. The airline is implementing cost controls, optimizing its route network and improving fleet utilisation while expanding international services to Amsterdam, Phuket and Colombo and increasing frequencies to Singapore, Manila, Moscow, Kaohsiung, Melbourne and Sydney. It plans to invest in 50 new narrow-body aircraft for delivery between 2030 and 2032, lease 20 additional narrow-body aircraft for 2027-2028, introduce its first dedicated cargo aircraft in the third quarter of 2026 and expand infrastructure at key airports including Long Thanh International Airport. For 2026, Vietnam Airlines targets carrying 27.73 million passengers and 361,400 tonnes of cargo, up 8.1% and 6.2% year on year respectively, while consolidated revenue is projected to reach VND 138.9 trillion, an increase of more than 12%. The airline’s chairman said the airline will continue organisational restructuring and strengthening its workforce to support anticipated double-digit growth.

SINGAPORE
13.4% of resident households earn at least SGD 30,000 per month in 2025, up from 7.4% in 2020
(30 June 2026) Singapore’s 2025 General Household Survey showed continued growth in household incomes, with 13.4% of resident households earning at least SGD 30,000 per month, up from 7.4% in 2020. More than half of resident households (51.6%) earned at least SGD 12,000 monthly, compared with 38.2% five years earlier. Median monthly household market income reached a record SGD 12,446 in 2025, exceeding SGD 12,000 for the first time and increasing at an average annual real rate of 3.2% from SGD 9,099 in 2020. The survey attributed the shift towards higher income brackets to rising median earnings, with real annual income growth of 3.5% for Indian households, 3.1% for Chinese households and 2.3% for Malay households. Median monthly household market income in 2025 was SGD 13,382 for Indian households, SGD 12,969 for Chinese households and SGD 8,581 for Malay households. Employment accounted for almost 80% of total household market income. The survey also showed that dual-income households became more common, with 56.6% of married couples both employed in 2025, up from 52.5% in 2020, while households with only the husband employed declined from 24.9% to 21.0%, and households with only the wife employed remained broadly unchanged at 7.5%.


RCEP Monitor



AUSTRALIA
Headline inflation expected to peak at 4.25% in mid-2026, lower than 5% forecast in May federal budget
(28 June 2026) Australia’s Treasurer said headline inflation is now expected to peak at around 4.25% in mid-2026, lower than the 5% forecast in the May Federal Budget, supported by lower oil prices and progress in Middle East peace talks. He said inflationary pressures have eased more quickly than anticipated, although uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose risks. The Treasurer also said underlying inflation is improving ahead of schedule, with updated Treasury forecasts to be released at the mid-year update, although he did not provide revised figures. Recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed annual headline inflation at 4.0%, below economists’ expectations of 4.3%, while trimmed mean underlying inflation was 3.6%, slightly above the 3.5% forecast. The May Federal Budget continues to project headline inflation declining to 2.5% by mid-2027. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate three times this year to 4.35% before pausing at its June meeting.

NEW ZEALAND
Improved business sentiments following early signs of US-Iran peace deal and lower fuel prices
(30 June 2026) ANZ Bank New Zealand’s business confidence index rose to 36.6 in June from 10.0 in May, the highest level since February, while the own-activity index increased to 36.9 from 25.6, reflecting improved sentiment following early signs of a US-Iran peace agreement and lower fuel prices. ANZ said firms appeared more willing to invest and hire despite continued uncertainty. The survey indicated easing inflationary pressures, with fewer firms expecting higher costs over the next three months, a net 50.7% planning to increase prices, and one-year inflation expectations declining to 3.36% from 3.63% in May. Profit expectations also improved, with a net 13% of firms expecting higher earnings over the next 12 months compared with 2% in May, while a net 9.4% expected to increase hiring, up from 3.4%. The results support expectations that New Zealand’s economy may perform better than previously anticipated following stronger-than-expected annual GDP growth through March, although economists continue to forecast a contraction in the second quarter before a recovery as fuel and other costs ease. Investors currently assign a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate increase at the next policy meeting, although some economists expect any rate rise to be delayed until September or later.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea tightens property market restrictions due to semiconductor boom spurring home prices
(30 June 2026) South Korea has expanded property market restrictions to Hwaseong’s Dongtan district, Yongin’s Giheung district and the city of Guri to curb speculative buying following sharp house price increases linked to semiconductor industry expansion and improved transport infrastructure. From 1 July, the three areas will be designated speculative zones subject to stricter lending restrictions, while land transaction permit requirements will take effect from 5 July. The land ministry said housing demand in Dongtan and Giheung has been driven by expectations of semiconductor industry growth and the GTX-A rail line, while Guri has benefited from its proximity to Seoul and redevelopment around rail stations. Gyeonggi Province said the measures are intended to prevent speculative demand from shifting into these areas due to their accessibility to Seoul and growth prospects. The government said it will strengthen housing market monitoring and accelerate housing supply plans to support market stability and protect end-users. Following the changes, 25 districts in Seoul and 15 in Gyeonggi Province will be subject to property market restrictions, as Seoul apartment prices have continued rising for a 73rd consecutive week despite earlier cooling measures.

15 participating countries

20 chapters

2.2 billion

US$26.2 trillion

28%

ASEAN member states, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual property, e-commerce, competition, SMEs, economic and technical cooperation, and government procurement combined population, 30% world’s population combined GDP, 30% global GDP global trade (based on 2019 figures)

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