Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

ASEAN, RUSSIA
Russia uses ASEAN Russia Commemorative Summit to advance political, economic, and energy cooperation
(20 June 2026) Russia used the ASEAN Russia Commemorative Summit in Kazan to advance political, economic and energy cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, positioning itself as an alternative partner as the region seeks to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on China and the United States. Russia signed a framework agreement with Lao PDR on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, including exploration of a Russian-designed nuclear power plant, while Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Malaysia had received assurances on petrol, oil and gas supplies and that preparations were under way for a long-term agreement. The director-general of Rosatom said Indonesia was showing strong interest in nuclear technologies, including floating nuclear power plants. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister called for expanded cooperation with Russia to strengthen regional resilience and maintain ASEAN’s ability to choose its own partnerships. Southeast Asia consumes approximately 7.5 million barrels of oil per day but produces only 4.7 million, with the International Energy Agency projecting the region’s energy import bill to reach USD 160 billion in 2026. Analysts said disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure had highlighted vulnerabilities in the region’s energy supply chain and created opportunities for Russia to expand its role in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear energy. An analyst at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute said oil and gas offered Russia the most immediate opportunities, while nuclear agreements could create long-term relationships through construction, fuel supply, maintenance, training and regulation.

ASEAN
Philippines and Thai companies experience largest earnings downgrades due to heavy dependence on Middle East oil imports
(19 June 2026) Philippine and Thai companies have experienced the largest earnings downgrades in Southeast Asia due to their heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports, with over 90% of Philippine imports and around 60% of Thai imports sourced from the region. Bloomberg Intelligence said the impact is expected to become more visible in upcoming second-quarter results, particularly in consumer-related sectors facing higher fuel and input costs. Aviation is among the most exposed industries, with Thai Airways International and PAL Holdings more vulnerable to fuel price increases due to limited hedging. Around 80% of Philippine Stock Exchange Index constituents have seen second-quarter net income estimates cut since the Middle East conflict began, the highest proportion among major Southeast Asian markets. Eurobank research indicates that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, shipping volumes, oil flows and production may take time to normalise, keeping energy prices above pre-war levels through the second half of 2026. Investors are advised to monitor margin guidance, cost pass-through, consumer demand, foreign-exchange sensitivity, loan growth and asset quality, with consumer-facing sectors, transport, logistics and banks in Thailand and the Philippines remaining the most exposed if elevated oil prices persist into the third quarter.

ASEAN
Goldman Sachs warns that Southeast Asia could face food-supply shock due to higher oil and fertilizer prices
(22 June 2026) Goldman Sachs warned that Southeast Asia is likely to face a food-supply shock as higher oil and fertiliser prices linked to the Middle East conflict increase production and transportation costs, while a potential strong El Niño event in late 2026 could further disrupt food supplies. The bank said rising fuel-sensitive consumer prices and higher fertiliser costs would force governments to reassess trade-offs between food and fuel affordability. Singapore and the Philippines are identified as the most directly exposed to global food-price shocks due to their status as net food importers. Goldman noted that Malaysia and Indonesia also remain vulnerable, as both become net food importers when their palm oil sectors are excluded. Thailand faces additional risk because more than 90% of its fertiliser supply is imported, increasing exposure to higher global agricultural input costs. The report cited the risk that continued oil supply disruptions could raise fertiliser prices and affect availability, potentially disrupting planting and harvesting seasons in 2026 and 2027, reducing crop yields and increasing food prices. Goldman estimates that combined shocks from oil price volatility, fertiliser costs and El Niño could add an average of 1 percentage point to Southeast Asia’s food inflation after six months, rising to 2.1 percentage points after 12 months before moderating to 2 percentage points after 18 months. The bank emphasised that these figures represent additional inflationary pressure on top of normal food inflation trends rather than forecasts of overall food inflation.

CHINA, ASEAN
Chinese home appliance brands significantly expand market share in Southeast Asia over the past five years
(22 June 2026) Chinese home appliance brands have significantly expanded their market share across Southeast Asia over the past five years, driven by improved product quality, innovative features, enhanced after-sales service and competitive pricing rather than cost alone. In Southeast Asia, Chinese brands’ share of major appliances increased to 20.8% in 2025 from 17.0% in 2020, while their air-conditioner share rose to 26.6% from 16.1%, as Japanese brands’ share fell to 37.2% from 43.7%. Indonesia recorded one of the largest shifts, with Chinese air-conditioner market share rising to 34.5% from 15.7%, surpassing Japanese competitors. In Malaysia, Chinese television brands such as TCL and Hisense increased their market share to 36.1% in 2025 from 15.1% five years earlier. Gree strengthened its position through a 10-year compressor warranty, five-year repair and spare-parts coverage, and 24-hour customer support, exceeding warranty offerings from many Japanese and South Korean competitors. Indonesian retailers reported that Chinese appliances offer comparable features at prices 20% to 40% lower, while manufacturers have adapted products to tropical climates and smaller living spaces. Chinese companies are also increasing local production, with Midea operating a smart factory in Indonesia capable of producing more than 2 million refrigerators annually and expanding local procurement. In Thailand, Chinese brands’ share of refrigeration appliances rose to 44.7% in 2025 from 30.1% in 2020, supported by investments from Haier and Midea, which have established major manufacturing and regional operations in the country. C Chinese brands also expanded their dominance in robot vacuum cleaners, with regional market share rising to 58.2% from 36.2%, including growth in the Philippines to 81.0% from 28.6%, supported by partnerships with e-commerce platforms Shopee and Lazada. Roborock, Ecovacs and Xiaomi overtook iRobot in this category.

MALAYSIA, THAILAND
Malaysia and Thailand conduct intense negotiations over Malaysia’s suspension of imports of Thai shrimp
(20 June 2026) Malaysia and Thailand are conducting intensive negotiations over Malaysia’s temporary suspension of imports of five shrimp species, with Malaysia’s Agriculture and Food Security Minister stating that both sides are seeking a solution that protects their respective interests. Mohamad said the issue has received the attention of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and remains under negotiation, while Thailand is expected to provide clarification regarding fish and shrimp exports to Malaysia. Malaysia’s Agriculture and Food Security Ministry secretary-general confirmed that Malaysia has received Thailand’s response to a ministry questionnaire and is currently assessing, verifying and auditing the information to determine compliance with national biosecurity requirements. Malaysia had requested the response through its agricultural representative office in Bangkok following concerns over biosecurity compliance. On 16 May, Malaysia introduced stricter controls on fisheries imports from Thailand, including mandatory certificates of analysis for seabass and a temporary suspension, effective 01 June, covering Penaeus esculentes, Fenneropenaeus merguiensis, Penaeus vannamei, Penaeus monodon and Penaeus stylirostris. Thailand has reportedly indicated it may raise the matter at the World Trade Organisation and ASEAN forums if bilateral discussions do not produce a resolution.

MALAYSIA, BANGLADESH
Bangladesh and Malaysia agree to strengthen economic cooperation, trade and investment ties
(22 June 2026) Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman met Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur during his first overseas visit since Bangladesh’s February election, with both leaders agreeing to strengthen economic cooperation, trade and investment ties. Discussions covered labour mobility, the halal industry, defence and security cooperation, and the energy sector, including potential Malaysian investment in oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh remains Malaysia’s second-largest trading partner in South Asia, importing approximately USD 2 billion of goods annually from Malaysia while exporting about USD 135 million. Bangladeshi workers account for 37% of Malaysia’s foreign workforce, with more than 800,000 holding Malaysian work permits. Rahman urged Malaysia to reopen its labour market to Bangladeshi workers, regularise undocumented workers where possible, and ensure recruitment processes are transparent, fair and affordable with reduced reliance on intermediaries. Anwar stated that exploitation and mistreatment of foreign workers could not be tolerated. Malaysia has restricted recruitment from Bangladesh since 2024 following allegations of debt bondage and forced labour. Bangladesh also reiterated its intention to obtain ASEAN Sectoral Dialogue Partner status, receiving a positive response from Malaysia. Malaysia further expressed support for Bangladesh’s aspiration to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

INDONESIA
Indonesia to launch IDR 26.34 trillion stimulus package in second half of 2026
(22 June 2026) Indonesia will launch a 26.34 trillion rupiah (USD 1.48 billion) stimulus package in the second half of 2026 to support economic growth, according to the Coordinating Economic Ministry. The package supplements a previously announced IDR 7.8 trillion stimulus programme and is primarily focused on food assistance worth IDR 18.04 trillion. The government will distribute 10 kg rice packages to 33 million recipients beginning next month, with IDR 17.54 trillion allocated for the programme. Additional measures include discounts on air, rail and sea transportation, a paid internship programme, and government coverage of value-added tax on airfares, according to Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister. The initiative follows IDR 15 trillion in spending on food aid and other fiscal stimulus measures during the first quarter of 2026. The government is targeting economic growth of at least 5.4% in 2026, compared with 5.11% growth recorded in the previous year.