ASEAN, CHINA
Chinese consumer brands increasing their presence in Southeast Asia
(16 July 2025) Chinese consumer brands are increasing their presence in Southeast Asia through acquisitions, product innovation, and use of online sales platforms, with these brands gaining shares in home appliance and cosmetics markets previously dominated by Japanese, South Korean and European firms. Euromonitor data show China’s share in Southeast Asia’s consumer appliances market rose from 3.6% in 2015 to 8.6% in 2024, with sharper gains in specific categories such as vacuum cleaners (22.9%), washing machines (20.4%) and microwave ovens (18.2%). Haier has expanded via local production, acquisitions and AI-enabled products, projecting Thai sales of THB 14 billion in 2025, up 28% year-on-year. Deerma, after acquiring Philips’ water purification business and listing in 2023, now leads Southeast Asia’s vacuum cleaner market with competitively priced products sold via e-commerce. Chinese brands’ share of Southeast Asia’s air conditioning market rose from 9% in 2015 to 25% in 2024, while Japanese brands lost 7 points. Growth has been supported by platforms like TikTok Shop, offering incentives to Southeast Asia-focused merchants, and Shopee, which manages Chinese merchants’ operations. In cosmetics, Chinese mass skin care brands posted 115% average annual growth from 2019–2024, increasing colour cosmetics market share in Indonesia from 2% to 15%. However, Chinese brands remain weak in food categories due to persistent safety concerns and localisation challenges. China’s exports to ASEAN reached USD 322.5 billion in H1 2025, up 13% year-on-year and exceeding exports to the EU and U.S., while imports grew just 1% to USD 188.4 billion, raising competitiveness concerns for Southeast Asia’s local industries.

SINGAPORE
Singapore’s economic growth expected to slow in second half of 2025
(16 July 2025) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that Singapore’s economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 despite second-quarter GDP growing 4.3% year-on-year, supported by front-loaded exports ahead of US tariffs. The Ministry of Trade and Industry’s GDP forecast for 2025 was downgraded in April to 0–2% from 1–3%, reflecting weaker global demand and policy uncertainty. The MAS highlighted risks surrounding US tariff measures, noting that Singapore has not yet received formal notification of additional tariffs beyond the 10% baseline announced in April. He projected softer consumption and investment in the coming months. MAS reported a net profit of SGD 19.7 billion for FY2024/25 and assets under management rising 12.2% year-on-year to over SGD 6 trillion. The MAS emphasised Singapore’s position as a regulated and trusted wealth management hub.

SINGAPORE
Luxury condos market faces uphill struggle in attracting wealthy homebuyers
(17 July 2025) The W Residences Marina View in Singapore’s central business district recorded only two units booked out of 683 during its pre-sale weekend, despite preview prices starting at SGD 3,200 per square foot and one-bedroom units priced from SGD 1.8 million, with five-bedroom units at SGD 11.6 million and above. The 99-year leasehold project, developed by Malaysia’s IOI Properties Group for SGD 1.5 billion and managed by Marriott International, comes amid weak demand in the prime city centre, partly due to higher taxes on foreigners and a shift in local preference toward suburban homes. In contrast, LyndenWoods, a mass-market project located 9km away, sold over 94% of its 343 units at an average SGD 2,450 per square foot in one day. Apartment prices in the core central region have increased about 19% over five years, compared to a 40% rise across the broader private home market. Skywaters Residences nearby, backed by Alibaba Group and Perennial Holdings, has sold only two of 190 units since launch, priced at SGD 47.3 million and SGD 30.9 million respectively. City Developments Ltd has yet to announce a launch date for its Newport Residences project in the same area. IOI Properties claimed strong interest during private previews and described buyer caution as expected given the surge in new launches. Analysts suggested developers may slow land acquisitions and avoid price wars, though they continue to target wealthy residents eligible for lower levies rather than offering deep discounts.

INDONESIA, UNITED STATES
US announces trade agreement with Indonesia reducing US tariff rate to 19%
(15 July 2025) U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reducing the threatened U.S. tariff rate on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% in exchange for Indonesia committing to purchase USD 15 billion in U.S. energy, USD 4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, mainly 777s, for Garuda Indonesia. Trump claimed the deal ensures U.S. exports face no Indonesian tariffs or nontariff barriers and grants full access to Indonesia’s market of 280 million people. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Indonesia was USD 17.9 billion in 2024, with bilateral trade totalling USD 38.3 billion. Trump also highlighted Indonesia’s copper reserves as a point of U.S. interest. Indonesian officials expressed confidence that tariff-free U.S. imports were manageable, though analysts in Jakarta noted risks to sectors such as poultry and corn. The Indonesian Employers Association advised caution, noting ongoing regional negotiations could shift competitiveness. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association welcomed the deal, citing potential to raise U.S. palm oil imports to 3 million metric tonnes in coming years. The agreement follows similar U.S. deals with Viet Nam, the U.K., and China, and analysts suggested the inclusion of critical minerals like copper could set a precedent for future trade agreements.

INDONESIA
Indonesia targeting up to USD 2 billion from US dollar-denominated sukuk issuance
(16 July 2025) Indonesia is targeting up to USD 2 billion from a US dollar-denominated sukuk issuance launched on Wednesday, comprising a five-year sukuk with initial price guidance of 4.85% and a 10-year green sukuk at 5.5%. The issuance, through Perusahaan Penerbit SBSN Indonesia III with the government as obligor, will be listed on the Singapore Exchange and Nasdaq Dubai and is rated Baa2 (Moody’s), BBB (S&P) and BBB (Fitch). Proceeds will fund general financing needs and eligible green expenditures. The sukuk follows a U.S.-Indonesia trade deal announced Tuesday reducing proposed U.S. tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, which Indonesian officials described as the result of difficult negotiations. Indonesian equities reached a one-month high after the deal and ahead of the sukuk, outperforming regional peers amid weaker global sentiment. Bank Indonesia cut rates for the fourth time since September, citing the revised U.S. tariffs as supportive amid slowing trade and domestic demand, with the rupiah remaining stable.

VIET NAM, UK
UK announces agreement with Viet Nam to remove pharmaceutical trade barriers
(14 July 2025) Britain announced an agreement with Viet Nam to ease the sale of UK-manufactured medicines and vaccines in the Vietnamese market, as part of its new trade strategy focused on sector-specific deals. Viet Nam will expedite the registration process for new pharmaceuticals and accept approvals from additional regulators, including the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. The agreement, expected to be confirmed on Monday, is projected to generate GBP 250 million (USD 337 million) for the UK pharmaceutical industry over five years. The UK-Vietnamese Joint Economic and Trade Committee will also meet in London to discuss financial services and renewable energy. While prioritising life sciences under its new industrial strategy, Britain is simultaneously imposing a new quota regime to restrict steel imports from Viet Nam. The industrial strategy has faced delays due to ongoing disputes over drug pricing between the government and the pharmaceutical industry regarding fair valuation of medicines and payments to the health service. Trade Minister Douglas Alexander described the Viet Nam agreement as evidence of early progress under the revised strategies.

MALAYSIA
BMI projects Malaysia will miss its 2024 fiscal deficit target of 3.8%
(17 July 2025) BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projects Malaysia will miss its 2024 fiscal deficit target of 3.8% of GDP, with the deficit narrowing only to 4%, delaying the government’s aim of reducing it to 3% by 2028. BMI attributes this to higher-than-planned spending and weaker revenue, forecasting 2025 revenue at 16.4% of GDP, down from 16.8% in 2024, due to subdued economic activity limiting tax collection. Petroleum-related revenue is expected to fall short of budget expectations, while economic growth is forecast at 4.2% for 2024, below the official 4.5–5.5% target currently under review. BMI anticipates continued pressure on public finances from the 01 July electricity tariff hike of 14%, which could drive additional utility subsidies, and notes the government has yet to provide clarity on planned RON95 fuel subsidy cuts. It also expects policymakers to exceed planned expenditure in 2025, as seen in previous years. S&P Global Ratings has separately warned of rising risks to Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings from tariffs and trade tensions, underscoring the fiscal challenges for Malaysia despite its relatively strong credit standing in the region.

RCEP Monitor

AUSTRALIA
Unemployment rate rises to 4.3% in June, highest since 2021
(17 July 2025) Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June, the highest since 2021, as net employment grew by only 2,000 against forecasts of 20,000, while the number of unemployed increased by 33,600 and youth unemployment climbed to 10.4% from 9.5%. The weaker-than-expected labour data has raised questions about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent decision to hold rates steady at 3.85% despite market expectations of a further cut, with the Australian dollar falling by half a cent after the release on expectations of a rate cut in August. Oxford Economics attributed weak hiring partly to firms’ caution amid global trade uncertainties and noted the slowdown was particularly evident among youth, often the most marginal workers. Langcake and Westpac both cautioned that while headline employment growth has remained solid over the past year, largely due to state-funded hiring in sectors like health and education, recent trends may indicate the start of a broader weakening in labour demand as private sector restraint emerges. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government, elected in May on cost-of-living pledges, plans to convene a productivity-focused roundtable next month to address economic challenges amid easing inflation and slowing jobs growth.

NEW ZEALAND, MALAYSIA
Malaysia aims to serve as halal hub in ASEAN for New Zealand products
(16 July 2025) Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi announced that Malaysia will serve as a halal hub in ASEAN for New Zealand products, following recognition of two New Zealand organisations by the Malaysian Islamic Development Department (Jakim). Speaking at the Malaysia-New Zealand Halal Forum on 16 July, Zahid invited New Zealand halal industry players to participate in the Malaysia International Halal Showcase 2025, where plans for an ASEAN Halal Council comprising ASEAN and ASEAN Plus Plus nations will be announced. The council aims to standardise halal certification across the region, with the agenda to be raised at the ASEAN Summit in October. Zahid also noted discussions within the Gulf Cooperation Council to reactivate the World Halal Council to include Muslim and non-Muslim halal-exporting countries, in view of the global halal market’s projected growth from USD 1.3 trillion annually to USD 5 trillion by 2050, with Malaysia targeting a 5% share. New Zealand Biosecurity and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard highlighted Malaysia as a key market for premium halal meat, with exports exceeding NZD 60 million, and ongoing facilitation of approvals for new halal-certified premises.

CHINA
Authorities call for stricter price oversights amidst deflation pressures
(17 July 2025) Chinese Premier Li Qiang, at a high-level meeting on Wednesday, called for stricter price regulation in the electric vehicle sector to address destructive price competition and deflationary pressures, urging automakers to improve cost oversight, make timely supplier payments, and enhance competitiveness through innovation and quality. Li also called for boosting domestic consumption by removing spending restrictions and optimising trade-in policies for consumer goods. Concerns over oversupply and price wars in sectors such as EVs, solar panels, and steel have intensified, with China’s industrial profits down 9.1% in May and producer prices falling 2.8% year-on-year in the first half. Chinese automakers’ profits fell 11.9% in May despite an 11.7% increase in sales, over half of which were new energy vehicles, prompting the industry association to urge a halt to “vicious competition.” The National Statistics Bureau noted some easing of price cuts in key industries without intervention. Economists, however, cautioned that addressing overcapacity through production cuts risks economic growth and employment, with Evercore ISI’s Neo Wang describing current measures as likely short-lived rather than substantive reform. China’s second-quarter GDP grew 5.2%, keeping it on track for the 5% full-year target, and analysts such as Tianchen Xu warned that firms may still undercut competitors despite calls for price discipline.