Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

JAPAN, ASEAN
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visits Viet Nam and the Philippines 
(01 May 2025) Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s visit to Viet Nam and the Philippines this week focused on strengthening political, economic, and security ties amid heightened regional tensions with China. In Hanoi, Ishiba and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh agreed to deepen bilateral trade and uphold global trade rules, while Vietnam’s top leader To Lam urged Japan to increase infrastructure investment. In Manila, Ishiba and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr launched talks on an intelligence-sharing deal and a defence pact to facilitate joint military exercises. Both leaders reaffirmed opposition to coercive changes in the East and South China Seas and agreed to negotiate an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) to improve economic collaboration and supply chain resilience. The visit follows Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent Southeast Asia tour and the signing of over 100 cooperation documents. Analysts noted Japan’s aim to reinforce regional partnerships independently of the US, especially via frameworks like the CPTPP and the Official Security Assistance (OSA) programme. Agreements with Viet Nam currently cover AI, disaster risk reduction, and green transitions. Commentators emphasised Japan’s strategy to be seen as a reliable partner that respects regional autonomy, contrasting it with perceived US disengagement, including its 2017 TPP withdrawal and aid programme reductions.

ASEAN
ASEAN Member States advance discussions on incorporating civil nuclear energy  
(01 May 2025) ASEAN member states, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, and Singapore, are advancing discussions on incorporating civil nuclear energy (CNE) into regional energy strategies as part of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2026–2030. During the 15th Nuclear Energy Cooperation Sub-Sector Network Meeting held from 28–30 April 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, chaired by the Philippines and supported by the ASEAN Centre for Energy, representatives reviewed strategic focus areas and potential CNE activities for inclusion in the APAEC roadmap. These proposals will be presented for consideration at the ASEAN Senior Officials’ Meeting on Energy in June 2025 in Kuching, Sarawak. The meeting also involved discussions with external partners including the Korea Nuclear Association, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, ASEAN Business Council, Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership, and others, to support the development of nuclear energy infrastructure and nonproliferation frameworks in the region. Timor-Leste participated as an observer. The initiative reflects a coordinated regional approach to explore nuclear power as a stable and low-carbon energy source within ASEAN’s energy transition strategy. 

INDONESIA
Food self-sufficiency goals prompts significant agricultural expansion into regions such as Papua 
(02 May 2025) President Prabowo Subianto’s plan to achieve food self-sufficiency in Indonesia has prompted significant agricultural expansion into regions such as Papua, where a food estate programme is set to cover over 3 million hectares, including projects in Merauke that have already cleared 11,000 hectares. These developments are linked to Prabowo’s wider strategy, which includes reducing food imports, boosting rice exports, and supporting a free meal programme for nearly 83 million beneficiaries. The government claims environmental mitigation will include the reforestation of 6.5 million hectares, though experts caution that replanting cannot replace the ecological value of original forests. Concerns from environmental and Indigenous rights groups focus on deforestation, carbon emissions, and the loss of Indigenous land, with at least 10 private firms holding sugar cane plantation permits in Merauke, each covering 30,000 to 66,000 hectares. The Celios think tank estimates that clearing 2 million hectares could emit over 780 million tonnes of CO₂, jeopardising Indonesia’s net-zero 2050 target. Analysts argue that achieving food security also requires systemic improvements in agricultural infrastructure, research, and political commitment, beyond land acquisition.

INDONESIA
Indonesia secures USD 60 million investment into 92 megawatt solar plant 
(02 May 2025) Standard Chartered, DEG (Germany’s development finance institution), and France’s Proparco have announced a USD 60 million investment in the 92 megawatt-peak Saguling floating solar PV plant in West Java, Indonesia, which will be operated by Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and PLN Indonesia Power, with operations expected to begin in 2026. The project, projected to offset over 63,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, represents the first project-level financing under Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) since the United States formally exited the initiative, despite having pledged over USD 2 billion in loans, guarantees, and grants. France has committed more than EUR 450 million (approximately USD 513 million) to Indonesia’s energy transition through JETP, while Indonesia now relies on Germany and Japan, the new JETP co-leads, to maintain momentum. The JETP’s initial USD 21.6 billion pledge is split between USD 11.6 billion from public sector donors including the EU, UK, Canada, and others, and the remainder from private entities coordinated by the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), whose members include Standard Chartered, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank. The German Ambassador described the Saguling agreement as evidence of the maturing phase of JETP projects, signalling readiness for investment.

THE PHILIPPINES
Government infrastructure spending reaches PHP 148.3 billion in January–February 2025 period
(01 May 2025)  Government infrastructure spending in the Philippines reached PHP 148.3 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in January–February 2025, a 23.1% year-on-year increase driven by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), which completed carryover projects and emergency works, and accelerated right-of-way settlements and account processing. This contributed to a total capital outlay of PHP 187 billion, up 7% from the previous year. Direct payments from development partners, including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, also supported the disbursements. However, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) noted that election-related spending prohibitions are expected to temporarily slow infrastructure disbursements in April, although a rebound is anticipated in May–June post-election. Capital transfers to local government units (LGUs) declined by 28.8% to PHP 38.6 billion due to timing differences in national tax share releases. No equity was released to state-owned corporations during the period. The Marcos administration aims to raise infrastructure expenditure to PHP 2.1 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP, by 2028.

THAILAND
Thailand records investment applications totalling THB 431.20 billion in Q1 2025
(30 April 2025) Thailand recorded investment applications totalling THB 431.20 billion (MYR 55.60 billion) in Q1 2025, a 97% year-on-year increase, driven by large infrastructure projects and a fivefold rise in digital sector investments, particularly data centres. The Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) reported 822 project applications, up 20% from Q1 2024, of which 618 were submitted by foreign investors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) applications amounted to THB 267.70 billion, up 62% from the previous year. Hong Kong led FDI inflows with THB 135.16 billion, including THB 72.70 billion in the digital sector. China followed with THB 47.30 billion , mainly in metal, electronics, and automotive projects; Singapore with THB 38.10 billion in electrical, electronics, and digital; Japan with THB 25.10 billion in E&E and automotive; and Taiwan with THB 4.76 billion focused on E&E and automotive parts. The BOI linked the investment surge to alignment with its five-year high-tech development strategy and investor confidence in Thailand’s long-term economic outlook. In 2024, Thailand’s total investment promotion value rose 35% year-on-year to a 10-year high of THB 1.14 trillion, with the digital sector leading at THB 243.30 billion, followed by the E&E sector at THB 231.70 billion.

THAILAND, UNITED STATES
Thailand targeting increased exports of pet food and processed food products to US
(28 April 2025) Thailand is targeting increased exports of pet food, rice, and processed food products to the US, aiming to capitalise on Chinese exporters’ exclusion from the market due to elevated tariffs. Key areas of focus include expanding market share in products where Thailand is already a leading US supplier—such as dog and cat food, rice, and processed mackerel—while also substituting Chinese-origin items like noodles, frozen seafood, soy sauce, and bamboo shoots. However, Thailand faces a 36% tariff that could impede retention of its US market share, with additional concern over potential circumvention by Chinese goods routed through countries with lower US tariffs. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has instructed tighter issuance controls for certificates of origin and offered concessions such as increased imports of US commodities (corn, natural gas, and ethane), lower import duties, and removal of non-tariff barriers in efforts to secure trade terms with Washington. Thailand’s 2024 exports to the US reached USD 55 billion (MYR 240 billion), up from USD 26.6 billion in 2017, with agricultural exports alone accounting for USD 4.8 billion. The IMF has revised Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 1.8% from 2.9%, partly due to trade war impacts. Thailand is also preparing for increased domestic inflows of Chinese agricultural goods—such as garlic, dried chili, green tea, and preserved vegetables—which may lower input costs for some businesses but also heighten competitive pressures.

RCEP Monitor

CHINA
Official manufacturing PMI falls to 49 in April, marking sharpest contraction since December 2023 
(30 April 2025) China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in April 2025, from 50.5 in March, marking the sharpest contraction since December 2023, amid the initial impact of new US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods. Non-manufacturing PMI also missed forecasts, reflecting weaker construction and services activity. New export orders declined to the lowest level since December 2022, with the steepest drop since April 2022, while manufacturing employment contracted at its fastest pace since February 2024. Economists from Morgan Stanley and Nomura signalled the tariffs are triggering a broader slowdown, leading UBS and Goldman Sachs to cut 2025 growth forecasts to 4% or lower. Despite the downturn, Beijing has limited its response to measures improving loan access for exporters and focusing on domestic consumption, while continuing to implement the stimulus plan approved in March. The offshore yuan initially weakened but recovered to 7.26 per dollar, while the CSI 300 Index remained stable. Caixin’s private PMI rose to 50.4, above forecasts, reflecting marginal growth in smaller, export-driven firms. First-quarter industrial profits rose just 0.8%, and major solar manufacturers posted over CYN 8 billion (USD 1.1 billion) in losses. The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the April PMI decline to a high base and external volatility. 

NEW ZEALAND
Business confidence declines sharply in April 2025, marking the lowest level since July 2024
(30 April 2025) New Zealand business confidence declined sharply in April 2025, with ANZ Bank’s sentiment index falling to 49.3 from 57.5 in March, marking the lowest level since July 2024. The own-activity expectations index dropped to 47.7 from 48.6, indicating reduced economic momentum. The decline followed the announcement of new US tariff measures under President Donald Trump, which prompted firms to delay investment and hiring decisions. ANZ reported that survey responses submitted after the tariff news were notably more negative, signalling an immediate impact on forward-looking indicators. Economists confirmed that the data reflected a significant negative shift in sentiment, particularly regarding capital expenditure and labour plans. ANZ has revised its GDP growth forecast downward and now anticipates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the Official Cash Rate from 3.5% to 2.5% within the year. Government officials noted diminished fiscal headroom for new spending in the upcoming budget, attributing this to slowing recovery and heightened uncertainty. Labour market conditions remain subdued, reinforcing concerns about prolonged weakness in domestic demand.

SOUTH KOREA
Technology exports see significant rise in April 2025, driven by stockpiling  
(01 May 2025) South Korea’s technology exports saw a significant rise in April 2025, driven by stockpiling in anticipation of potential re-imposition of US tariffs. Chip exports, the country’s largest export category, surged 17.2%, marking the biggest increase in four months and the highest ever for April. Wireless communication devices, including smartphones, and biopharmaceutical products also experienced strong growth, with increases of 26.5% and 21.8%, respectively. Overall exports rose by 3.7% to USD 58.2 billion, while imports dropped 2.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 4.8 billion. Notably, shipments to the European Union increased by 18.4% to a record USD 6.7 billion, while exports to China grew by 3.9%. However, exports to the United States fell by 6.8%, with automobile shipments also down 3.8%. Experts suggest that the surge in exports reflects preemptive buying by companies and consumers concerned about the looming US tariffs. South Korea’s Trade Minister highlighted that the data demonstrates the resilience of Korean exports amid external uncertainties.