Captures has widened its scope to include news related to all the members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement which was signed towards the end of 2020. Besides the ASEAN Member States, this includes Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, and South Korea. The other weekly newsletters under CARI, China-ASEAN Monitor and Mekong Monitor will also be consolidated into the Captures newsletter. We hope this new version of Captures will serve you better and look forward to providing a curation of stories relevant to ASEAN and its trading partners.

THE PHILIPPINES
Peso expected to weaken further against US Dollar despite anticipated rate hikes
(11 May 2026) Analysts said the Philippine peso is expected to weaken further against the US dollar despite anticipated Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas interest-rate hikes of up to 100 basis points in 2026. Strategists from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, BNY and MUFG Bank said rising oil import costs linked to the US-Iran war are weighing on the Philippines’ growth outlook and trade balance. The peso has fallen about 3% this year to 60.61 per dollar after reaching a record low in late April, with forecasts pointing to further depreciation toward 62 to 63 against the dollar. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said the peso is likely to retain a weakening bias due to an uncertain growth outlook, a wide current account deficit and elevated inflation risks, with ANZ forecasting a year-end level of 63.0. BNY said higher oil prices are offsetting the usual currency support from rate hikes by increasing dollar demand for imports and adding downside pressure on economic growth. Market reaction indicated limited investor confidence in the expected rate hikes, with the peso underperforming Asian peers on 24 April despite BSP guidance signalling modest tightening measures. First-quarter GDP growth was 2.8% year-on-year, below estimates, while household consumption recorded its slowest pace in nearly 16 years outside the pandemic period. Global funds have withdrawn more than USD 400 million from Philippine equities since the conflict began, while the stock market benchmark has declined 1.5% this year, making it the second-worst performer in Southeast Asia after Indonesia. Inflation pressures have also intensified, with April consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in three years.

MALAYSIA
New EV policy designed to develop broader domestic automotive ecosystem
(11 May 2026) Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister said Malaysia’s EV policy is aimed at developing the broader domestic automotive ecosystem rather than protecting Malaysian automobile companies Proton and Perodua. He was responding to concerns over new Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry rules requiring imported EVs to have a minimum price of MYR 200,000 and motor power of at least 180kW from 01 July, 2026. He said foreign EV manufacturers are being encouraged to establish operations in Malaysia and collaborate with local suppliers to strengthen capabilities, move vendors up the value chain, and support future autonomous driving technologies. The minister said the policy covers the wider industry ecosystem, including European, Japanese, and Chinese carmakers operating in Malaysia. He said EVs priced between MYR 100,000 and RM200,000 can still be offered through local manufacturing arrangements. The minister said the government is focused on building a “complete ecosystem” covering manufacturing, supply chains, infrastructure, talent, and innovation. He said Malaysia’s automotive sector contributed an estimated MYR 80 billion to MYR 95 billion to GDP in 2025 and supported more than 750,000 jobs. He said Perodua works with about 190 vendors while Proton has 116 vendors, with combined procurement spending of nearly MYR 15 billion on local parts suppliers.

MALAYSIA
Industrial production index expands despite decline in mining output
(11 May 2026) Malaysia’s industrial production index expanded 3.1%, below the 3.5% median consensus forecast due to a sharper decline in mining output. Kenanga Research upgraded its 2026 manufacturing IPI growth forecast to 4.3% from 3.5% after stronger-than-expected production performance in the first quarter of 2026, with momentum expected to continue into the second quarter. The firm said manufacturers are accelerating stockpiling activity to mitigate raw material shortage risks linked to Middle East-related supply disruptions. Kenanga Research said stronger first-half 2026 output could partially offset slower growth in the second half if geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility intensify. The latest manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in April, the highest level in four years, indicating a stronger start to the second quarter. Hong Leong Investment Bank said global manufacturing activity improved in April, supported by stronger output and new orders, although some demand reflected frontloading ahead of potential supply shortages and higher costs. HLIB said supply chain risks may continue to affect Malaysia’s commodity-related production, while the electrical and electronics sector remains supported by the global technology upcycle. Both Kenanga Research and HLIB maintained their 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5%. Kenanga Research raised its first-quarter GDP growth estimate to 5.1% from 4.7%, citing stronger manufacturing activity. The firm projected second-quarter growth of 5.3%, supported by inventory accumulation and stronger services activity linked to Visit Malaysia 2026, which is expected to offset mining sector weakness. Kenanga Research said growth momentum may moderate in the second half of 2026 if geopolitical tensions persist, the 2025 base effect intensifies, and inventory restocking eases.

VIET NAM
Seafood exports projected to rise to USD 12.3 billion in 2026
(11 May 2026) Viet Nam’s seafood exports are projected to rise by about USD 1 billion in 2026 from USD 11.3 billion in 2025 to approximately USD 12.3 billion, supported by recovering global demand and adaptation efforts by exporters. The secretary general of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers said seafood export turnover reached nearly USD 4 billion in the first four months of 2026, up more than 14% year-on-year. April exports were estimated at USD 947.8 million, bringing cumulative exports to about USD 3.6 billion, an 11.9% increase. Shrimp and pangasius remained the main export products, while tuna exports declined about 6% due to international market pressure and stricter import regulations. Exports to mainland China and Hong Kong exceeded USD 1 billion in the first four months, recording strong growth from a year earlier. Japan maintained stable growth, while exports to the United States fell by about 6% to 7% due to trade policies and trade remedy cases. Nam said the decline in the US market was mainly linked to technical barriers rather than weaker consumer demand. VASEP said the US and European Union continue to introduce stricter regulations covering environmental protection, traceability and social responsibility. EU supply chain due diligence requirements now require businesses to assess production chains against sustainability criteria, while the EU’s yellow card warning on Vietnam’s seafood exploitation activities remains in place. In the US, anti-dumping investigations, anti-subsidy cases and other trade defence measures have become increasingly complex, although coordination between authorities and businesses has helped lower tariff rates in several cases.

THAILAND
Finance Minister defends government’s THB 400 billion emergency borrowing decree
(11 May 2026) Thailand’s Finance Minister defended the government’s THB 400 billion emergency borrowing decree, including THB 200 billion allocated for energy transition measures, following a petition by the People’s Party to the Constitutional Court challenging the urgency and necessity of the borrowing. The minister said Thailand was facing a complex economic crisis driven primarily by rising energy costs and heavy dependence on imported oil and natural gas. He said the issue had also been discussed at the ASEAN level because Thailand remains highly reliant on external energy supplies. The minister said rising energy costs were directly contributing to inflation, with the latest monthly inflation rate at 2.9% and potentially rising to 4% to 5% due to higher goods and living costs. Food prices have already increased by nearly 10%, prompting the government to prepare measures for further potential crises. He said discussions had already taken place with the Bank of Thailand through a joint meeting of four economic agencies and that full-year inflation was still expected to remain close to the central bank’s 1% to 3% target range. The minister described the current situation as different from the 1997 financial crisis and the Thai Khem Khaeng period because the present crisis directly affects household living costs and livelihoods. He said the emergency borrowing decree was necessary to enable the government to respond quickly to the risk of the crisis spreading further. Responding to criticism referencing Moody’s positive assessment of Thailand’s economy, the minister said the agency’s comments related to the country’s strong international reserves and financial stability rather than domestic economic hardship.

LAO PDR
Lao PDR seeks expanded market opportunities for local products
(10 May 2026) The 12th One District One Product and Model Family Product Exhibition is being held in Vientiane from 04 May to 10 May to promote locally produced goods, support micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and expand market access for Lao products. The event features 170 business units and products from nine provinces across Lao PDR. The One District One Product initiative, introduced in 2013, encourages each district in Vientiane to develop at least five signature products. As of May 2026, Vientiane has certified 77 business units under the programme and developed 319 products across 65 villages. The exhibition also includes seminars on solar energy, competitions covering recycling, weaving and Lao cooking, as well as youth-focused activities including a children’s fashion show and talent performances. Organisers said the exhibition continues to support domestic product promotion and broader economic growth in Lao PDR.

LAO PDR
Lao PDR calls for stronger cooperation with Viet Nam and Cambodia in multiple sectors
(11 May 2026) Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone called for stronger cooperation between Lao PDR, Viet Nam and Cambodia in transport connectivity, energy, trade, investment and tourism during a working breakfast meeting on 08 May held on the sidelines of the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, the Philippines. The meeting involved Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and was held at the invitation of Viet Nam, according to the Lao Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The three leaders described the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam trilateral cooperation mechanism as an important platform for regular consultations and closer cooperation among the neighbouring countries. They reaffirmed commitments to strengthening longstanding friendship, solidarity and mutual assistance between the three nations. The leaders also noted continued expansion of cooperation in politics, defence and security based on mutual trust and understanding. Sonexay thanked his Vietnamese and Cambodian counterparts for congratulating him following his recent re-election. He emphasised the need to strengthen practical cooperation in priority sectors, particularly transport connectivity, energy cooperation, trade, investment and tourism. Sonexay also called for closer coordination and mutual support in regional and international forums to protect common interests. The three leaders agreed that continued high-level exchanges and meetings would further strengthen unity and deepen trilateral cooperation. The meeting reflected the three countries’ commitment to maintaining close coordination on regional and international issues.