CARI Captures Issue 644: Prabowo Subianto on track to win Indonesian presidential election

INDONESIA
Prabowo Subianto on track to win Indonesian presidential election based on quick count of results
(14 February 2024) Former army general Prabowo Subianto is on track to win Indonesia’s presidential election held on 14 February, 2024, based on a quick count of the final results. As of 8 p.m. Jakarta time, the pollsters’ quick counts, based on about 90% of votes counted at sample polling stations, indicate Prabowo winning 57% to 59% of the total vote. In comparison, former Jakarta Govenor Anies Baswedan secured 24% to 26% of the total vote, while former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo secured 16% to 17%. To win the presidential election, a candidate must gain the majority of total votes and more than 20% in at least half of the 38 provinces. If a candidate is unable to secure this, a second round is held on 26 June. The General Elections Commission has until 20 March to announce the final results.

INDONESIA
Indonesian stocks jump in early trading as Prabowo declares victory
(15 February 2024) Indonesian stocks jumped in early trading on 15 February after Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto declared victory in the country’s presidential election held on 14 February, 2024. The Jakarta Composite Index rose as much as 2.2%, the most since May 2022, after Prabowo secured nearly 60% of votes in quick counts done by private pollsters. It closed 1.3% higher at 7,303.28 on 15 February. A swift victory for Prabowo is likely to remove the uncertainty that would come from a prolonged election. The defense minister largely campaigned on policy continuity with the current administration of President Joko Widodo, which also appealed to investors.

THAILAND
Government delays approval of draft bill banning recreational usage of cannabis
(13 February 2024) The Thai government has delayed the approval of a draft bill banning the recreational usage of cannabis as it seeks more opinions from other parties. According to Thailand’s Public Health Minister, the Ministry of Public Health could not submit the bill to the cabinet on 13 February, 2024 because more time is needed to seek views. Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin had pledged to limit cannabis only for medical and health-related use during the May 2023 election campaign over public concerns over addiction. The previous administration had implemented landmark legislation in mid-2022 to decriminalize the usage of cannabis, making Thailand the first country in Asia to do so.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s economy expands below target at 3.7% in 2023
(16 February 2024) According to Bank Negara Malaysia, Malaysia’s economy expanded by 3.7% in 2023, below the official target of 4% to 5%. This was a substantial drop from the 8.7% growth recorded in 2022. In the last quarter of 2023, GDP growth slowed to 3.0%, from the 3.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. The fourth quarter performance was worse than the average 3.4% forecast in a Reuters poll of 23 economists published on 14 February, 2024. Bank Negara attributed this slowdown to a ‘challenging external environment’, and pointed to  slower global trade, the global tech downcycle, geopolitical tensions, and tighter monetary policies. Malaysia’s overall trade was down 7.3%, while manufacturing managed just 0.8% growth due to continued weakness in the electrical and electronics industry.

SINGAPORE
Non-oil domestic exports grows 16.8% year-on-year in January 2024
(16 February 2024) Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports grew by 16.8% year-on-year in January 2024, aided by growth in both electronic and non-electronic products. Non-oil domestic exports amounted to US$9.88 billion in January 2023, compared to US$11.5 billion last month. The expansion has continued the growth seen in November 2023, when non-oil domestic exports grew 1% after falling for 13 consecutive months. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, non-oil domestic exports grew 2.3% in January, after declining 2.8% in December 2023. The biggest expansion was in exports to China, which grew 101.3% year-on-year.

THE PHILIPPINES
Filipino conglomerate San Miguel chosen to revamp and operate main international airport
(16 February 2024) A consortium led by Filipino conglomerate San Miguel has been chosen by the Philippines government to revamp and operate Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), the country’s main international airport based in Manila. On 16 February, 2024, authorities announced that the winning contract went to San Miguel, which offered the central government 82% of revenue if it was granted a license to operate the airport under a privatization deal that will run for 15 years, with an option to extend it by another decade. The consortium includes RLW Aviation Development, RMM Asian Logistics and South Korea’s Incheon International Airport, and is expected to begin running operations within three to six months.

VIET NAM
Viet Nam records surging number of international arrivals during Chinese New Year holidays
(15 February 2024) According to the Vietnam National Authority of Tourism, Viet Nam recorded a surging number of international arrivals during the Chinese New Year holidays. While the city of Danang welcomed nearly 177,000 foreign arrivals between 8 to 14 February, Hanoi welcomed nearly 103,000 arrivals. During the same period, the number of international arrivals traveling to Ho Chi Minh City hit 75,000, while travelers to the Mekong Delta province of Kien Giang reached 44,370. Meanwhile, the number of arrivals to the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong reached 20,000. Authorities attributed the increase in the number of foreign visitors to favorable visa policies, proper market exploitation, and effective promotion activities.

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JAPAN
Japan’s economy unexpectedly falls into recession on 15 February, 2024
(15 February 2024) Japan’s economy unexpectedly fell into recession on 15 February, 2024 after shrinking for the second consecutive quarter in the last quarter of 2023. Japan’s GDP would contract by 0.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023. The economy had shrunk by 3.3% year-on-year in the previous quarter. Japan would also lose its spot as the third largest economy in the world to Germany in US Dollar terms in 2023. While the IMF had predicted that Germany would overtake Japan as the third-largest economy in October 2023, the change in ranking will only be declared by the IMF once both countries have published the final versions of their economic growth figures.

SOUTH KOREA
South Korea prepares US$56.97 billion financial support programme for companies
(15 February 2024) South Korea has prepared a US$56.97 billion financial support program for companies increasing investments into key sectors as well as small businesses struggling with high-interest rates. The program includes US$11.26 billion worth of cheap policy loans from a state-run bank for key industries, such as semiconductor and battery, while commercial banks will also provide US$15.01 billion to support small and medium-sized businesses. South Korea’s Financial Services Commission cited the need for regulatory reform and financial support, pointing to evolving trade relations with China, technological advancement in major industries, and fragmentation of global supply chains.

AUSTRALIA
Unemployment rate stands at two-year high of 4.1% in January 2024
(15 February 2024) According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s unemployment rate in January 2024 jumped to a two-year high of 4.1%. In comparison, the unemployment rate measured 3.9% in December 2023. The economy added 11,100 full-time jobs while shedding 10,600 part-time roles, leaving a net gain for the month of just 500 jobs. This increase in the jobless rate was attributed in part to more people looking for work at the start of 2024. However, the participation rate remained unchanged from December 2023 at 66.8%. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be monitoring these latest numbers as it assesses the impact of 13 increases in official interest rates since May 2022.