CARI Captures Issue 621: Southeast Asian tech giant’s shares diverge, with Grab jumping due to cost-cutting measures
ASEAN
Southeast Asian tech giant’s shares diverge, with Grab jumping due to cost-cutting measures
(28 August 2023) The stock prices of Southeast Asian tech giants such as Grab, GoTo, and Sea have greatly diverged in 2023 as investors seek companies that have engaged in cost-cutting rather than those with costly growth plans. Grab Holding’s shares are up 15% this year through 25 August, 2023, reflecting strong demand for its ride-hailing and food delivery segments as well as cost-cutting measures announced in June which would see more than 1,000 jobs slashed (11% of its total workforce). The ride-hailing and food delivery giant now expects to break even on a group level in the third quarter of 2023 on an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) basis, ahead of its previous target for the final quarter. By contrast, Sea’s shares plunged 29% after the company announced it intends to boost investment into its e-commerce business Shopee. The company warned this might lead to losses.
THAILAND
Office of Industrial Economics downgrades industrial GDP for 2023, projects 1.5% to 2.5% contraction
(01 September 2023) Thailand’s Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) has downgraded its estimation for Thailand’s industrial GDP for 2023, now projecting a contraction of between 1.5% to 2.5%. Earlier in June 2023, the OIE had predicted that industrial GDP for this year would expand by 0.0% to 1.0%. The OIE had also downgraded its estimation for Thailand’s manufacturing production index (MPI) for 2023, projecting a contraction of 2.8% to 3.8%. It had previously projected that MPI would expand by 0.0% to 1.0%. These downgrades were attributed to factors including the declining purchasing power of the agricultural sector, the global economic slowdown, financial problems affecting export partners, geopolitical conflicts, climate change’s impact on agricultural output, high energy prices as well as higher interest rates. These factors have driven up manufacturing costs while also diminishing the competitiveness of Thai products in global markets.
THAILAND
Proposed visa waiver for Chinese and Indian tourists expected to boost tourism revival
(01 September 2023) The Thai government is proposing a visa waiver for Chinese and Indian tourists, sparking hopes for the revival of Thailand’s tourism sector. The lengthy visa application process has been cited as a bottleneck for the industry. In the first half of 2023, the average waiting time for a Chinese visitor to obtain a tourist visa to Thailand was nearly 15 days. Indian and Chinese tourists can also apply for a visa on arrival, albeit with several requirements. It is hoped that the new Thai government can implement the plan before the peak season in November 2023. The country expects to welcome up to 30 million international tourists in 2023, nearly thrice the numbers in 2022 though still lower than the 40 million received in 2019 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic).
MALAYSIA
Property prices and rentals in Johor Bahru now closing to rates in Klang Valley
(21 August 2023) Property prices of high-rise projects and rental rates at shopping malls in Johor Bahru city center are now closing to rates in the Klang Valley, driven by the effects of the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link and a strong Singapore dollar. According to RHB Investment Bank, a lot of infrastructure projects, property developments, facility expansions, and investments are taking place in Iskandar Malaysia, a development zone formed by major cities in Johor state. It has also been noted that expensive rental rates in Singapore are starting to drive up rental rates in Johor Bahru city center. As well, malls located in the city center are expected to benefit from greater connectivity and higher shopper traffic from Singapore.
INDONESIA
Indonesia’s CPI rises by 3.27% in August 2023, within central bank’s target range
(01 September 2023) Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.27% in August 2023, a slight increase from the 3.08% recorded in July. The CPI score in August is still within Bank Indonesia’s 2023 inflation target range of 2% to 4%. Annual core inflation, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, eased in August to 2.18% from 2.43% in July. While headline inflation only rose modestly, annual rice inflation accelerated to 13.76% in August, the highest since June 2012. Indonesia is suffering from tight domestic supply of rice due to paddy fields having been hit by drought linked to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern. In response, the Indonesian government has approved an import quota of 2.3 million metric tonnes to help boost rice supplies at home.
INDONESIA
Government expands subsidy program for electric motorcycle purchases
(30 August 2023) The Indonesian government has expanded a subsidy program for the purchase of electric motorcycles. Through the program, Indonesians will receive a discount of US$460 valid for the one-time purchase of an electric motorcycle. The expansion of the assistance program comes five months after the government first introduced the subsidy to selected groups of people earlier in March 2023. The program is aimed at accelerating the setting up of an electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem in the country. Electric motorcycle sales had risen 191% from around 12,000 units in 2021 to 35,000 in 2022.
SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA, INDONESIA
Data center operators in Singapore exploring alternative sites in Malaysia and Indonesia
(31 August 2023) Data center operators in Singapore are exploring alternative sites in Malaysia and Indonesia due to Singaporean authorities limiting the construction of new facilities due to space constraints and enviromental concerns. Princeton Digital Group (PDG) is scheduled to complete a US$450 million data center with a capacity of 150 megawatts in Malaysia’s Johor Bahru in May 2024, while another facility is being planned in Indonesia’s Batam Island. In 2019, Singapore paused the construction of new data centers due to enviromental concerns. In July 2023, the government ended the moratorium and awarded rights to four operators, including Microsoft and a consortium comprised of China’s ByteDance and Australia’s AirTrunk. Capacity was limited to just 80 MW for the four winners.
RCEP Monitor
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea eyeing foreign domestic helpers to help raise low fertility rate
(01 September 2023) South Korea is eyeing foreign domestic helpers to help raise its low fertility rate. A pilot program in Seoul will allow 100 foreign employees to work in childcare and housekeeping for at least six months either full-time or part-time starting in December 2023. This program is aimed at helping ease labor shortages as well as the rising economic burden of raising children. South Korea’s fertility rate dropped to a low of 0.7 in the second quarter of 2023 from 0.78 in 2022 and 0.81 in 2021. The OECD’s average rate during the same period was 1.58. At present, South Korea only allows local workers and some Chinese nationals of Korean descent to become domestic helpers. Priority for hiring foreign domestic helpers will be granted to households with working couples between their 20s to 40s, single-parent households, or households with multiple children.
CHINA
Manufacturing PMI improves marginally in August 2023, but still stuck in contraction
(31 August 2023) According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) saw a marginal improvement in August 2023, having registered at 49.7, up from 49.3 in July 2023. However, it was still below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. This extends the Chinese manufacturing sector’s decline since April, after a brief improvement earlier in the year. The official nonmanufacturing PMI for August slowed to 51.0, from 51.5 in July, continuing a downward spiral from a high of 58.2 in March. It was dragged down by the services sector, while offset by growth in the construction sector. Earlier in August, China’s central bank had slashed a key lending rate to help shore up growth.
AUSTRALIA
Australian sovereign wealth fund Future Fund misses its return target for the year to June 2023
(30 August 2023) Australia’s US$133 billion sovereign wealth fund Future Fund missed its return target for the year to June 2023. The Future Fund returned 6% in fiscal 2023 compared with a target return of 10%. In comparison, Australia’s two largest pension funds, AustralianSuper and Australian Retirement Trust, returned 8.2% and 10%, respectively, over the period. The chairman of Future Fund warned that China’s ‘housing investment and debt-fuelled growth model’ was unravelling, clouding the global investment outlook. As well, the chairman noted that with elevated interest rates, Australia’s largest trading partners are expected to continue experiencing a slowdown. The fund had slashed its allocation to developed market equities, while also adding cash in the three months to 30 June, 2023.